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Decoding U.S. Election Day in 9 Key Charts

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After a tumultuous election cycle, the time has come at last for Americans to cast their ballots.

Media coverage has reached a fever pitch, and keeping up with the news cycle can be daunting for anyone. To keep the voting public and interested onlookers informed, we’ve compiled nine key charts that can help in answering key questions that people will have today:

  • Who’ll win the U.S. presidential election?
  • How could swing states flip?
  • When will we know the election results?
  • What are the stakes?
  • What does the rest of the world think?

Let’s start with the biggest—and most challenging—of these topics first.

Who’ll Win the Election?

As the world learned in 2016, answering this question is not as simple as it looks—even when the poll results point to a clear victory.

Chart #1: Biden remains the odds-on favorite

In 2020’s race, the poll results are once again stacked against President Trump. Here’s a look at who’s ahead in aggregated national polls:

National U.S. election aggregated polls

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Although this election cycle has been a wild ride, that volatility isn’t necessarily reflected in the polls. Over the past three months, Joe Biden’s lead in the national polls has not dipped below three percentage points.

Chart #2: Viewing odds through a 2016 lens

That said, after the colossal miscalculation by the media and pollsters in 2016, many people are skeptical of the accuracy of polls. Luckily, there’s a way to look at predictions through a more skeptical lens. As this table from FiveThirtyEight demonstrates, even if the results are as wrong as in 2016, Joe Biden is still predicted to win.

Margin of error in polls 2016

Chart #3: Betting markets also agree

Prediction markets are another way to try to gauge how the election could turn out. Traders on PredictIt are also leaning towards a Biden win on election day. President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis in early October served as a pivot point in that market.

Prediction markets for the U.S. election

Chart #4: The Sultans of Swing

There are a few swing states which will be hotly contested, with the candidates focusing their final days of campaigning on these.

Pennsylvania has received the most visits from both Trump and Biden since their last debate on October 22nd, with Trump visiting the state seven times and Biden stopping by four times.

Swing states summary

Swing states have had strong early voting turnouts. In fact, the number of early voters in many swing states is already set to surpass the total number of voters they saw in the 2016 election.

While Arizona and Georgia have voted red for the past five elections, early predictions point to these states possibly turning blue in 2020.

When Will We Know the Election Results?

While the result of the presidential election is typically known on the night of the election itself, this year could see delays due to the tight race and the amount of mail-in ballots.

No matter what, state election disputes need to be settled before December 8th, the “safe-harbor deadline”. After this date, states run the risk of having Congress refuse to accept their electoral votes, with Congress also resolving any left over disputes.

Each state’s electors then meet on December 14th in order to elect the president and vice-president. Depending on how that goes, this interactive election timeline by The Guardian looks at a few nightmare scenarios that the U.S. could get caught in.

Chart #5: Visualizing mail-in ballots so far

Mail-in ballots can slow down the election result due to late ballot deadlines and the pre-processing required for them to be counted. Expect to see a correlation between states with high mail-in ballot numbers and how long it takes them to call their result.

Ballot deadlines depend on the state, with some states accepting ballots up until November 23rd as long as they were postmarked by election day.

While some states can start pre-processing ballots before election day, others can’t start until election day itself. Some counties (including some in swing state Pennsylvania) won’t be starting mail-in ballot counting until November 4th due to limited resources.

Why Are the Stakes So High?

Voters from both parties are heavily invested in who wins this election—a trend that’s been on the rise for years, coinciding with increasing amounts of political polarization.

Chart #6: Voter apathy, no more

According to a recent survey by Pew Research Center, 83% of voters say it “really matters” who becomes the next president. In 2000, only 50% felt so strongly about the outcome of the election.

Voter apathy

To be fair, this year is also unique given a global pandemic—and this has certainly weighed heavily on many voters, creating more urgency than normal.

In fact, according to a survey conducted by Gallup in April 2020, 45% of Americans think Coronavirus/disease is the most important issue the country is currently facing.

Chart #7: Voters See COVID as a Top Concern

Research has shown a correlation so far between COVID-related deaths and reduced support for the incumbent. According to this graph from the New York Times, Trump’s approval rating tends to be lower in counties with higher death rates.

U.S. voting COVID-19

Chart #8: The price of democracy

The exceptionally high stakes could be a reason why this election is expected to be the most expensive to date. Spending is projected to reach over $13 billion, almost double the amount spent in 2016.

U.S. election spending

Source: Center for Responsive Politics

Chart #9: What the rest of the world thinks

Americans aren’t the only ones invested in the U.S. presidential election this year. The whole world is watching, and according to Ipsos, the majority is rooting for Biden.

How would the world vote?

But of course, the world doesn’t get to cast a vote today, making this final chart a moot point.

The real decision makers will be in the American electorate—and the forthcoming result will be on people’s minds for days, months, or maybe even years to come.

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Politics

Mapped: The Top Trading Partner of Every U.S. State

At the national level, Canada and China are top U.S. trading partners. While this generally extends to the state level, there are some surprises too.

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The Top Trading Partner of Every U.S. State

The U.S. is highly dependent—perhaps unsurprisingly—on Canada and Mexico for trade. The country’s top trading partner is Mexico, making up 14.8% of total trade.

However, the country’s neighbors to the north and south are not the only trade partners that U.S. states rely heavily upon. This map from HowMuch.net uses flags to show which country each U.S. state is importing the most from. Below, there is an additional graphic showing where each state is exporting the highest amount of goods and services to.

Who are the States Importing From?

The U.S. has a few natural and obvious trading partners, whether due to geographical closeness or strong economic ties.

The obvious candidates for top trading partners have already been mentioned, Canada and Mexico—and these two do show up at the state level as well. For example, Michigan gets 40.9% of its imports from Mexico, and Montana receives a whopping 87% of its imports from Canada.

Some other interesting trade partnerships stand out, like the Carolinas and Germany. Trade ties between Hawaii and Japan also make sense for historic reasons.

StateTop CountryTotal State Import (Millions USD)Share of Total State Imports
Alabama 🇲🇽 Mexico$4,16116.3%
Alaska🇰🇷 South Korea$83635.0%
Arizona🇲🇽 Mexico$8,97835.0%
Arkansas🇨🇳 China$3,16036.6%
California🇨🇳 China$130,29132.9%
Colorado🇨🇦 Canada$2,92824.3%
Connecticut🇨🇦 Canada$4,03122.4%
Delaware🇨🇭 Switzerland$1,92721.1%
District of Columbia🇨🇦 Canada$7413.7%
Florida🇨🇳 China$11,21214.7%
Georgia🇨🇳 China$20,19420.4%
Hawaii🇯🇵 Japan$29115.1%
Idaho🇨🇦 Canada$1,19521.7%
Illinois🇨🇳 China$48,32431.0%
Indiana🇮🇪 Ireland$11,55818.1%
Iowa🇨🇦 Canada$2,38726.6%
Kansas🇨🇳 China$2,06419.7%
Kentucky🇲🇽 Mexico$6,88212.5%
Louisiana🇷🇺 Russia$2,61112.6%
Maine🇨🇦 Canada$3,16766.6%
Maryland🇩🇪 Germany$3,99313.0%
Massachusetts🇨🇦 Canada$7,77922.2%
Michigan🇲🇽 Mexico$47,47340.9%
Minnesota🇨🇳 China$7,57726.9%
Mississippi🇨🇳 China$3,93824.9%
Missouri🇨🇦 Canada$4,50024.0%
Montana🇨🇦 Canada$3,44287.0%
Nebraska🇨🇦 Canada$87623.5%
Nevada🇨🇳 China$4,10831.8%
New Hampshire🇨🇦 Canada$1,39420.1%
New Jersey🇨🇳 China$14,30212.4%
New Mexico🇨🇳 China$1,49332.6%
New York🇨🇭 Switzerland$33,12621.5%
North Carolina🇩🇪 Germany$9,20815.1%
North Dakota🇨🇦 Canada$1,78162.3%
Ohio🇨🇦 Canada$10,62416.2%
Oklahoma🇨🇦 Canada$4,35540.2%
Oregon🇨🇦 Canada$2,95117.0%
Pennsylvania🇨🇳 China$13,47015.9%
Puerto Rico🇮🇪 Ireland$9,06242.7%
Rhode Island🇩🇪 Germany$1,52517.3%
South Carolina🇩🇪 Germany$6,22015.5%
South Dakota🇨🇦 Canada$42833.9%
Tennessee🇨🇳 China$20,30524.3%
Texas🇲🇽 Mexico$88,72635.8%
Utah🇲🇽 Mexico$4,29427.6%
Vermont🇨🇦 Canada$1,67763.5%
Virginia🇨🇳 China$6,56622.7%
Virgin Islands🇵🇹 Portugal$17427.7%
Washington🇨🇦 Canada$12,77226.1%
West Virginia🇨🇦 Canada$1,02535.2%
Wisconsin🇨🇳 China$5,55420.7%
Wyoming🇨🇦 Canada$69563.7%

However, one country in particular stands out on this map—China.

While the USMCA trade agreement has created an easy gateway for necessary goods and services to flow across North America, no country—not even the U.S.—can escape the need for mass imports from the world’s top exporter.

China and the U.S. have an imbalanced trade relationship, with China buying much fewer goods from the U.S. than the U.S. buys from them. In fact, China’s monthly trade surplus with the country sat at $31.8 billion as of May 2021.

Who are the States Exporting to?

After looking at the top import partners by state, let’s dive in to where the U.S. states are exporting the most.

Trading Partner of Every U.S. State

One thing that is noticeable is that China shows up much less on this map, further exemplifying the trade imbalance. In other words, while many states’ top import partner is China, they are not reciprocating as the country’s top export partner.

The only states that export their largest shares to China are:

  • Oregon – 38.1%
  • Alaska – 25.5%
  • Washington – 22.1%
  • Alabama – 18.1%
  • Louisiana – 18.1%

The majority are exporting to their North American neighbors. For example, North Dakota sends 84.6% of its exports just across the northern border.

StateTop CountryTotal State Export (Millions USD)Share of total State Exports
Alabama 🇨🇳 China$3,10218.1%
Alaska🇨🇳 China$1,17625.5%
Arizona🇲🇽 Mexico$3635.5%
Arkansas🇨🇦 Canada$1,14822.1%
California🇲🇽 Mexico$24,07815.4%
Colorado🇨🇦 Canada$1,27815.4%
Connecticut🇩🇪 Germany$2,18915.9%
Delaware🇨🇦 Canada$61915.8%
D.C.🇶🇦 Qatar$89932.4%
Florida🇧🇷 Brazil$3,5387.7%
Georgia🇨🇦 Canada$5,14613.3%
Hawaii🇦🇺 Australia$5115.8%
Idaho🇨🇦 Canada$1,18434.8%
Illinois🇨🇦 Canada$13,26124.8%
Indiana🇨🇦 Canada$11,08031.4%
Iowa🇨🇦 Canada$3,46027.4%
Kansas🇲🇽 Mexico$2,07820.0%
Kentucky🇨🇦 Canada$6,55026.5%
Louisiana🇨🇳 China$10,77918.1%
Maine🇨🇦 Canada$1,22952.8%
Maryland🇨🇦 Canada$1,58112.5%
Massachusetts🇨🇦 Canada$2,74611.0%
Michigan🇨🇦 Canada$17,34139.4%
Minnesota🇨🇦 Canada$4,82824.0%
Mississippi🇨🇦 Canada$2,08220.3%
Missouri🇨🇦 Canada$4,45334.9%
Montana🇨🇦 Canada$54437.9%
Nebraska🇲🇽 Mexico$1,63923.5%
Nevada🇨🇭 Switzerland$2,25621.8%
New Hampshire🇩🇪 Germany$75113.8%
New Jersey🇨🇦 Canada$7,22919.0%
New Mexico🇲🇽 Mexico$2,19759.5%
New York🇨🇦 Canada$13,77322.3%
North Carolina🇨🇦 Canada$5,88120.7%
North Dakota🇨🇦 Canada$4,38884.6%
Ohio🇨🇦 Canada$17,27338.4%
Oklahoma🇨🇦 Canada$1,45227.0%
Oregon🇨🇳 China$9,52238.1%
Pennsylvania🇨🇦 Canada$9,69925.9%
Puerto Rico🇳🇱 Netherlands$2,88917.2%
Rhode Island🇨🇦 Canada$41017.1%
South Carolina🇩🇪 Germany$4,08213.5%
South Dakota🇨🇦 Canada$52438.0%
Tennessee🇨🇦 Canada$5,81820.7%
Texas🇲🇽 Mexico$89,04631.9%
Utah🇬🇧 United Kingdom$8,90650.3%
Vermont🇨🇦 Canada$91838.3%
Virginia🇨🇦 Canada$2,71716.5%
Virgin Islands🇳🇱 Netherlands$9015.2%
Washington🇨🇳 China$9,12622.1%
West Virginia🇨🇦 Canada$1,28328.1%
Wisconsin🇨🇦 Canada$6,22630.4%
Wyoming🇨🇦 Canada$22519.3%

Trade Going Forward

The trade war that started during the tenure of former U.S. president Donald Trump is still ongoing and tariffs set by the U.S. are not expected to be lifted by president Joe Biden, as tensions have expanded beyond just trade issues.

These tariffs, however, have not helped to rectify the significant trade imbalance between the two countries. The states are still extremely reliant on imports from China, and it is not a reciprocal relationship.

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Money

Ranked: The Richest Veterans in America

There are over 18 million living veterans in the U.S., but how many are ultra wealthy? This visual ranks the richest veterans in America.

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Ranked: The Richest Veterans in America

The U.S is home to 724 billionaires, many of whom have taken on immense risks in the financial world. 16 of these wealthy individuals have also taken on the risks that come with serving in the U.S. military.

These veteran billionaires are worth a collective $81.4 billion and have served in posts ranging from Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC) to infantrymen in the Second World War. This visual, using data from Forbes, ranks the richest living American veterans.

This visual categorizes the individuals by either the military branch or war served in depending on what was applicable or determinable.

I Want You for the U.S. Army

According to the Department of Veteran’s Affairs, there are around 18 million veterans in the U.S. Of these 18 million, less than 0.01% can claim the title of billionaire.

NameNet Worth (Billions, USD)Industry War / Unit Served
Donald Bren$15.3Real Estate Marine Corps
Edward Johnson III$10.3Finance & InvestmentsArmy
Ralph Lauren$7.1Fashion & RetailArmy
Richard Kinder$7.0EnergyVietnam War
Charles Dolan & family$6.1Media & EntertainmentWWII, Airforce 
Fred Smith$5.7Logistics Vietnam War, Marine Corps
Charles B. Johnson$4.9Finance & Investments Army
Ted Lerner & family$4.8Real Estate WWII
Julian Robertson Jr.$4.5Finance & Investments Navy
John Paul DeJoria$2.7Fashion & Retail Navy
H. Ross Perot Jr.$2.7Real Estate Airforce
Bob Parsons$2.2Technology Vietnam War, Marine Corps
David H. Murdock$2.1Food & BeverageWWII
S. Daniel Abraham$2.0Food & BeverageWWII, Army
Charlie Munger$2.0Finance & InvestmentsWWII, Army Air Corps
George Joseph$2.0Finance & InvestmentsWWII

Six of the above veteran billionaires served in WWII. They are some of the last surviving veterans of the historic war which was fought by 16 million Americans—today, only around 325,000 WWII veterans are still alive.

George Joseph, of Mercury Insurance Group, piloted a B17 Bomber plane in WWII, and completed around 50 missions. Warren Buffett’s business partner at Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, served in the Army Air Corps in the early 1940s.

Richard Kinder (Kinder Morgan Inc.), Fred Smith (FedEx), and H. Ross Perot Jr. (Hillwood Investment Properties) each served in the Vietnam war.

One notable figure, Ralph Lauren, whose name is synonymous with his clothing products, served in the Army branch for two years in the early 1960s.

Taking on Financial Risk

Billionaire wealth continues to grow in America. Most of these veteran billionaires saw their net worths increase from 2020 to 2021, as, typically, wealth begets wealth. Here’s a look at the changes in net worth of the top five richest veterans who experienced increases:

  • Edward Johnson III: +$4.9 Billion
  • Ralph Lauren: +$1.4 Billion
  • Richard Kinder: +$1.8 Billion
  • Charles Dolan & Family: +$1.5 Billion
  • Fred Smith: +$3.0 Billion

The majority of these veteran billionaires are in the finance industry and some are tied to well-known companies, but they didn’t always have billions on hand to help them exponentially grow their fortunes.

David Murdock was a high school dropout, and after serving in WWII, had no money to his name. He took over a failing company called Dole, and eventually gained the moniker of ‘pineapple king’ after reviving the business.

S. Daniel Abraham, who was an infantryman in WWII, went on to found Thompson Medical. Their main product was Slimfast, which he later sold to Unilever for $2.3 billion in cash in the early 2000s.

Bob Parsons, who received a Purple Heart for his service in Vietnam, started out his professional career as a CPA. He later founded the enormous domain giant, Go Daddy. He has claimed that his time in the military helped him succeed in business.

Peace and Prosperity

We currently live in one of the most peaceful and prosperous times in history, with wars like WWII feeling to many like a story from the past — but for others these conflicts were defining moments for their generation.

While many veterans struggle to readjust to civilian life, on average pre-9/11 veterans have reported fewer difficulties compared to post-9/11 veterans, and some have even managed to reach the highest levels of financial success.

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