Ranked: The Revenue Impact of U.S. Tax Hikes
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Ranked: The Revenue Impact of U.S. Tax Hikes

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historic tax revenue increases from tax hikes

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The Briefing

  • Tax increases backing the American Jobs and Families Plan are expected to exceed 1% of U.S. GDP
  • Only 3 tax increases in U.S. history have ever equaled or exceeded 1% of GDP
  • The infrastructure plans will require 15 years of higher taxes on corporations to fund 8 years of spending

Ranked: The Revenue Impact of U.S. Tax Bills

The United States is opening up its wallet and writing some serious checks under the Joe Biden administration. The American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan are expected to cost a combined $3.2 trillion in total taxpayer dollars. For comparison, the federal government spent slightly more than $6.5 trillion across all of 2020.

In order to foot the bill, tax hikes will roll out for corporations and the ultra-wealthy.

A History of Tax Hikes

But how do these present tax hikes compare to those of the past?

When comparing the estimated increase in tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, the Biden tax hikes fall on par with the Revenue Act of 1951 under Harry Truman, for the greatest tax increases—1.5% of GDP.

Within both tax bills, corporate and high personal incomes were key targets. But while the Revenue Act of 1951 saw a 5% increase on corporate taxes, Biden tax hikes are pushing for a steeper 7% spike from 21% to 28%. Prior to the Trump administration, corporate taxes were at the 35% level.

Here’s how those corporate tax increases would compare amongst some OECD countries:

OECD CountryCorporate Tax Rate
🇦🇺 Australia30.0%
🇫🇷 France28.4%
🇺🇸 U.S.28.0%
🇰🇷 South Korea25.0%
🇪🇸 Spain25.0%
🇮🇹 Italy24.0%
🇬🇧 UK19.0%
🇩🇪 Germany15.8%
🇨🇦 Canada15.0%
🇮🇪 Ireland12.5%

Overall, tax increases in U.S. history appear to be fairly modest, as only three have ever generated revenue as high as 1% of GDP. The third biggest increase of all-time, the Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968 under Lyndon B. Johnson, saw:

  • Temporary 10% income tax surcharge on individuals through 1969
  • Temporary 10% income tax surcharge on corporations through 1969
  • Delayed scheduled reduction in telephone and automobile excise taxes

Unprecedented Spending

With the exception of WWII, federal spending and deficits as a percentage of GDP is already at unprecedented levels.

In fact, federal spending today is equivalent to 30% of GDP, and is estimated to be closer to 25% by the year 2030. Moreover, in raw dollars, total federal debt now stands at an unprecedented $28 trillion dollars.

Where does this data come from?

Source: JP Morgan
Notes: Joe Biden tax bill increases are estimates which may vary from future figures

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Charted: The Ukraine War Civilian Death Toll

Using data from the UN, this chart shows civilian death toll figures resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Ukraine war death toll

The Briefing

  • In total, since the war began in February there have been over 7,031 Ukrainian civilian deaths
  • Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons, such as missiles and heavy artillery

Charted: The Ukraine War Civilian Death Toll

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has wrought suffering and death on a mass scale, with many Russian attacks targeted at civilians.

We’ve created this visual using data from the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to better understand how many civilians have died in Ukraine as a result of the war, as well as how many were injured and how many were children.

The Numbers

As of early December, it is reported that 7,031 people in Ukraine have died because of the war — 433 of them children. Another 11,327 have been injured, 827 of which are children. In total, this is over 18,000 people killed or injured.

The figures are difficult to verify due to differing reports coming out of both Russia and Ukraine. The UN OHCHR anticipates that the numbers could be even higher.

The State of the Conflict

The war began on February 24th, 2022 and less than a year in, millions of people have been displaced by the conflict, and thousands of civilians have been injured or killed.

According to the UN, most of the civilian deaths have been caused by wide-ranging explosives such as heavy artillery shelling, missiles, and air strikes, and have been concentrated in Donetsk and Luhansk and in other territory still held by Ukraine.

Additionally, new estimates from Kyiv report approximately 13,000 Ukrainian military or soldier deaths, which has yet to be confirmed by the army.

Where does this data come from?

Source: The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights monthly reports on civilian deaths in Ukraine.

Note: Data on deaths and injuries can vary wildly depending on the source.

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