Ranked: The Revenue Impact of U.S. Tax Bills
The United States is opening up its wallet and writing some serious checks under the Joe Biden administration. The American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan are expected to cost a combined $3.2 trillion in total taxpayer dollars. For comparison, the federal government spent slightly more than $6.5 trillion across all of 2020.
In order to foot the bill, tax hikes will roll out for corporations and the ultra-wealthy.
A History of Tax Hikes
But how do these present tax hikes compare to those of the past?
When comparing the estimated increase in tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, the Biden tax hikes fall on par with the Revenue Act of 1951 under Harry Truman, for the greatest tax increases—1.5% of GDP.
Within both tax bills, corporate and high personal incomes were key targets. But while the Revenue Act of 1951 saw a 5% increase on corporate taxes, Biden tax hikes are pushing for a steeper 7% spike from 21% to 28%. Prior to the Trump administration, corporate taxes were at the 35% level.
Here’s how those corporate tax increases would compare amongst some OECD countries:
|OECD Country||Corporate Tax Rate|
|🇰🇷 South Korea||25.0%|
Overall, tax increases in U.S. history appear to be fairly modest, as only three have ever generated revenue as high as 1% of GDP. The third biggest increase of all-time, the Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968 under Lyndon B. Johnson, saw:
- Temporary 10% income tax surcharge on individuals through 1969
- Temporary 10% income tax surcharge on corporations through 1969
- Delayed scheduled reduction in telephone and automobile excise taxes
With the exception of WWII, federal spending and deficits as a percentage of GDP is already at unprecedented levels.
In fact, federal spending today is equivalent to 30% of GDP, and is estimated to be closer to 25% by the year 2030. Moreover, in raw dollars, total federal debt now stands at an unprecedented $28 trillion dollars.
U.S. Inflation: Which Categories Have Been Hit the Hardest?
The U.S. inflation rate has seen its fastest annual increase in over 30 years. Which consumer spending categories have been hit the hardest?
Prices have been going up in a number of segments of the economy in recent months, and the public is taking notice. One indicator of this is that search interest for the term “inflation” is higher than at any point in the past decade.
Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights rising costs across the board, and shows that specific sectors are experiencing rapid price increases this year.
Where is Inflation Hitting the Hardest?
Since 1996, the Federal Reserve has oriented its monetary policy around maintaining 2% inflation annually. For the most part, U.S. inflation over the past couple of decades has typically hovered within a percentage point or two of that target.
Right now, most price categories are exceeding that, some quite dramatically. Here’s how various categories of consumer spending have fared over the past 12 months:
|CPI Category||One-Year Change|
|Used cars and trucks||26.4%|
|Tobacco and smoking products||8.5%|
|Food at home||5.4%|
|Food away from home||5.3%|
|Medical care services||1.7%|
|Medical care commodities||-0.4%|
Of these top-level categories, fuel and transportation have clearly been the hardest hit.
Drilling further into the data reveals more nuanced stories as well. Below, we zoom in on five areas of consumer spending that are particularly hard-hit, how much prices have increased over the past year, and why prices are rising so fast:
1. Gasoline (+50%)
Consumers are reeling as prices at the gas pump are up more than a dollar per gallon over the previous year.
Simply put, rising demand and constrained global supply are resulting in higher prices. Even as prices have risen, U.S. oil production has seen a slow rebound from the pandemic, as American oil companies are wary of oversupplying the market.
Meanwhile, President Biden has identified inflation as a “top priority”, but there are limited tools at the government’s disposal to curb rising prices. For now, Biden has urged the Federal Trade Commission to examine what role energy companies are playing in rising gas prices.
2. Natural Gas (+28%)
Natural gas prices have risen for similar reasons as gasoline. Supply is slow to come back online, and oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was adversely affected by Hurricane Ida in September.
Compared to the previous winter, households could see their heating bills jump as much as 54%. An estimated 60% of U.S. households heat their homes with fossil fuels, so rising prices will almost certainly have an effect on consumer spending during the holiday season.
3. Used Vehicles (+26%)
The global semiconductor crunch is causing chaos in a number of industries, but the automotive industry is uniquely impacted. Modern vehicles can contain well over a thousand chips, so constrained supply has hobbled production of nearly a million vehicles in the U.S. alone. This chip shortage is having a knock-on effect on the used vehicle market, which jumped by 26% in a single year. The rental car sector is also up by nearly 40% over the same period.
4. Meats (+15%)
Meat producers are facing a few headwinds, and the result is higher prices at the cash register for consumers. Transportation and fuel costs are factoring into rising prices. Constrained labor availability is also an issue for the industry, which was exacerbated by COVID-19 measures. As a top-level category, inflation is high, but in specific animal product categories, such as uncooked beef and bacon, inflation rates have reached double digits over the past 12 months.
5. Furniture and Bedding (+12%)
This category is being influenced by a few factors. The spike in lumber prices along with other raw materials earlier in the year has had obvious impacts. Materials aside, actually shipping these cumbersome goods has been a challenge due to global supply chain issues such a port back-ups.
How Inflation Could Influence Consumer Spending
Rising prices inevitably impact the economy as consumers adjust their buying habits.
According to a recent survey, 88% of Americans say they are concerned about U.S. inflation. Here are the top five areas where consumers plan to cut back on their spending:
|Money saving action||% of respondents|
|Cut back on restaurant / take-out meals||48%|
|Keep my current technology (e.g. phone, tablet) instead of upgrading||30%|
|Budget food and cut back on grocery buying||29%|
|Purchase less clothing / accessories||29%|
|Put off home repairs, renovations, or home upgrades||23%|
Will Inflation Continue to Rise in 2022?
Many experts believe that U.S. inflation will decelerate going into 2022, though there’s no consensus on the matter.
Improved semiconductor supply and an easing of port congestion around the world could help slow inflation down if nothing goes seriously wrong. That said, if the last few years are any indication, unexpected events could shift the situation at any time.
For the near term, consumers will need to adjust to the sticker shock.
Visualizing Congestion at America’s Busiest Port
The Port of Los Angeles is the busiest port in America. It’s also at the center of a massive container backlog.
The Busiest Port in America: Los Angeles
U.S. e-commerce grew by 32.4% in 2020—the highest annual growth rate in over two decades. Such rapid growth has resulted in many more goods being imported, leaving America’s western ports completely overwhelmed.
To help you understand the scale of this issue, we’ve visualized the number of containers waiting at sea in relation to the Port of Los Angeles’ daily processing capacity.
Stuck at Sea
As of November 2, 2021, the Port of Los Angeles reported that it had 93 vessels waiting in queue. Altogether, these ships have a maximum carrying capacity of roughly 540,000 containers (commonly measured in twenty-foot equivalent units or TEUs).
On the other side of the equation, the port processed 468,059 import containers in September (the most recent data at the time of writing). Because the port does not operate on Sundays, we can conclude that the port can load roughly 18,000 containers each day.
That capacity seems unlikely to reduce the congestion. Over a two-week timeframe in September, 407,695 containers arrived at the Port of Los Angeles, which averages to around 29,000 containers arriving each day.
|Figure||Approximate Number of Containers|
|Daily import arrivals||29,000|
|Daily import capacity||18,000|
|Daily increase in backlog||11,000|
What’s Being Done?
Solutions are needed to prevent the backlog from causing massive economic harm. In fact, analysts believe that up to $90 billion in trade could be delayed this holiday season.
In October, the Biden administration announced a deal to expand operations at the Port of Los Angeles, enabling it to run 24/7. The port also announced it will begin charging carriers for every container that sits idle over a grace period. While only temporary, this plan has drawn criticism for its unclear objective.
“The fee is on the ocean carrier, but the control over when the cargo is to be picked up sits with the cargo recipient. Having the ocean carrier pay more does nothing to encourage the cargo interest to pick up the cargo.” – World Shipping Council
Regardless of the outcome, more permanent solutions will be required as online shopping continues to gain popularity.
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