Election day is finally here.
Here’s 10 charts and maps that will help prepare your brain for what may come this evening.
1. Media “Consensus” is a Clinton Victory
It’s been a roller coaster over recent months, but the media “consensus” view is that Clinton has the best odds at winning the race. The above chart from Josh Katz plots the chance of a Clinton victory over the last three months according to various publications.
2. But Brexit Moments Happen…
As we all saw in June, polling numbers are not to be trusted.
Even though the consensus view seems to be a Clinton victory, renowned statistician Nate Silver gives us significantly different odds. According to his website, the chance of a Trump victory is at roughly 28% as we head into Election Day.
Silver also recently defended his model on Twitter:
The philosophy behind 538 is: Prove it. Doesn't mean we can't be wrong (we're wrong all the time). But prove it. Don't be lazy.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016
And especially don't be lazy when your untested assumptions happen to validate your partisan beliefs.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016
3. The Trump Path to Victory
While a Trump victory is less likely, if it were to happen it may look something like this:
To stand a chance, Trump has to take Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. That would get him to 259 electoral votes.
Then he’d need to find 11 votes elsewhere: winning one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia would work. However, he has trailed in polls in these three states for months.
4. Demographics are Destiny
Trump and Clinton appeal to different groups of people.
For Trump to succeed, he will need working class whites to show up in droves at polling stations, and to somehow find cross-over appeal from other voting blocs.
5. Demographics are Destiny – Part Deux
Clinton will also need a strong turnout from the growing share of Hispanic voters in the country. This is especially important in states like Arizona, Florida, and New Mexico.
6. Obama is Hillary’s not-so-secret weapon
Obama’s approval rating is at its highest point in years, and this could end up being a deciding factor in mobilizing enough voters for Clinton.
7. Will voter turnout improve, generally?
Voter turnout in the 2012 election was low in comparison to other developed countries.
The question is: will it be higher in 2016, and who does this benefit the most?
8. Everyone’s a Hater
Maybe turnout will be high because of the “lesser evil” vote. After all, these are two of the most disliked candidates in history.
By the way, the above numbers are from summer 2016 – before the “lewd conversation” incident, the additional Trump sexual assault accusations, the release of most of the Podesta emails, and the re-opening (and re-closing) of Clinton’s FBI case.
9. A divided country
No matter who wins, the country will remain very divided over the near future. There will likely be a significant amount of disgruntled people in practically every state.
10. Money Raised
With the hype around the election, one would guess that the respective campaigns of Clinton and Trump would be destined for the record books.
However, that’s simply not the case:
The above chart by Max Galka shows normalized campaign finance history since 1960.
Clinton spent less than Obama did for either of his campaigns, and Trump was outspent by each of the last four Republican campaigns (Romney, McCain, and G.W. Bush 2x).
Interactive Map: Tracking Global Hunger and Food Insecurity
Every day, hunger affects more than 700 million people. This live map from the UN highlights where hunger is hitting hardest around the world.
Interactive Map: Tracking Global Hunger and Food Insecurity
Hunger is still one the biggest—and most solvable—problems in the world.
Every day, more than 700 million people (8.8% of the world’s population) go to bed on an empty stomach, according to the UN World Food Programme (WFP).
The WFP’s HungerMap LIVE displayed here tracks core indicators of acute hunger like household food consumption, livelihoods, child nutritional status, mortality, and access to clean water in order to rank countries.
After sitting closer to 600 million from 2014 to 2019, the number of people in the world affected by hunger increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2020, 155 million people (2% of the world’s population) experienced acute hunger, requiring urgent assistance.
The Fight to Feed the World
The problem of global hunger isn’t new, and attempts to solve it have making headlines for decades.
On July 13, 1985, at Wembley Stadium in London, Prince Charles and Princess Diana officially opened Live Aid, a worldwide rock concert organized to raise money for the relief of famine-stricken Africans.
The event was followed by similar concerts at other arenas around the world, globally linked by satellite to more than a billion viewers in 110 nations, raising more than $125 million ($309 million in today’s dollars) in famine relief for Africa.
But 35+ years later, the continent still struggles. According to the UN, from 12 countries with the highest prevalence of insufficient food consumption in the world, nine are in Africa.
|Country||% Population Affected by Hunger||Population (millions)||Region|
|Burkina Faso 🇧🇫||61%||19.8||Africa|
|South Sudan 🇸🇸||60%||11.0||Africa|
|Sierra Leone 🇸🇱||55%||8.2||Africa|
|Syria 🇸🇾||55%||18.0||Middle East|
|Yemen 🇾🇪||44%||30.0||Middle East|
Approximately 30 million people in Africa face the effects of severe food insecurity, including malnutrition, starvation, and poverty.
Although many of the reasons for the food crisis around the globe involve conflicts or environmental challenges, one of the big contributors is food waste.
According to the United Nations, one-third of food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted globally. This amounts to about 1.3 billion tons of wasted food per year, worth approximately $1 trillion.
All the food produced but never eaten would be sufficient to feed two billion people. That’s more than twice the number of undernourished people across the globe. Consumers in rich countries waste almost as much food as the entire net food production of sub-Saharan Africa each year.
Solving Global Hunger
While many people may not be “hungry” in the sense that they are suffering physical discomfort, they may still be food insecure, lacking regular access to enough safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development.
Estimates of how much money it would take to end world hunger range from $7 billion to $265 billion per year.
But to tackle the problem, investments must be utilized in the right places. Specialists say that governments and organizations need to provide food and humanitarian relief to the most at-risk regions, increase agricultural productivity, and invest in more efficient supply chains.
Mapped: Where are the World’s Ongoing Conflicts Today?
In 2021, we live in a time of relative peace, however, as this map reveals, that does not mean there are no conflicts in the world today.
Where are the World’s Ongoing Conflicts Today?
We live in an era of relative peace compared to most of history, however, this does not mean that there are no conflicts in the world today.
This map using data from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) reveals where the world’s 27 ongoing conflicts are today, and what type of conflicts they are.
Note: conflicts are categorized by definitions laid out by the CFR.
Detailing the Conflicts
Many people alive today have never lived through a war on their country’s soil, especially those in the West. But conflict, wars, and violence are by no means things of the past.
According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), as of Q2’2021 alone:
- Violence against civilians resulted in over 5,000 deaths worldwide
- Battle related deaths numbered over 18,000
- Explosion/remote violence led to more than 4,000 deaths
- Riots resulted in over 600 fatalities
Most of the world’s conflicts are concentrated in Asia and Africa and the most common forms are territorial disputes and civil wars. While terrorism often strikes fear in people, only three of the world’s ongoing conflicts are linked to terrorism, according to the CFR.
|Conflict Name||Type||Countries Involved|
|Civil War in South Sudan||Civil War||🇸🇸 South Sudan|
|War in Yemen||Civil War||🇾🇪 Yemen|
|Civil War in Libya||Civil War||🇱🇾 Libya|
|War in Afghanistan||Civil War||🇦🇫 Afghanistan|
|Civil War in Syria||Civil War||🇸🇾 Syria|
|Instability in Iraq||Civil War||🇮🇶 Iraq|
|Criminal Violence in Mexico||Criminal||🇲🇽 Mexico|
|Confrontation of U.S. & Iran||Interstates||🇺🇸 United States
|Conflict of India & Pakistan||Interstates||🇮🇳 India
|North Korea Crisis||Interstates||🇺🇸 United States
🇰🇵 North Korea
|Violence in the DRC||Political Instability||🇨🇩 DRC|
|Instability in Egypt||Political Instability||🇪🇬 Egypt|
|Political Instability in Lebanon||Political Instability||🇱🇧 Lebanon|
|Instability in Venezuela||Political Instability||🇻🇪 Venezuela|
|Tigray War in Ethiopia||Political Instability||🇪🇹 Ethiopia|
|Boko Haram in Nigeria||Sectarian||🇳🇬 Nigeria|
|Violence in Central African Republic||Sectarian||🇨🇫 Central African Republic|
|Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar||Sectarian||🇲🇲 Myanmar|
|Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict||Territorial Disputes||🇦🇲 Armenia
|Conflict in Ukraine||Territorial Disputes||🇺🇦 Ukraine
|Israeli-Palestine Conflict||Territorial Disputes||🇮🇱 Israel
|Turkey & Armed Kurdish Groups||Territorial Disputes||🇹🇷 Turkey|
|South China Sea Disputes||Territorial Disputes||🇨🇳 China
|Tensions in East China Sea||Territorial Disputes||🇨🇳 China
|Destabilization in Mali||Terrorism||🇲🇱 Mali|
|Al-Shabab in Somalia||Terrorism||🇸🇴 Somalia|
|Islamist Militancy in Pakistan||Terrorism||🇵🇰 Pakistan|
As an example of a more typical conflict, Myanmar’s civil unrest began in February 2020 when the military overthrew the democratically elected government and arrested the country’s leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The civilian population has been protesting heavily but to no avail. According to a BBC report, more than 860 people have been killed and around 5,000 have been detained.
This is just one of the many examples of persistent violence today including recent events like Mexico’s midterm election violence, Ethiopia’s fighting in the country’s Tigray region, and the fighting between Israel and Palestine over the Sheikh Jarrah evictions.
Finally, though the United States military has now withdrawn from Afghanistan, and the Taliban has taken control of the country, the outlook for the country remains uncertain.
War and Peace
While there are conflicts today, deaths from violence and wars have and wars have decreased over time. For example, battle death rates in state-based conflicts have reduced significantly in a period from 1946 to 2016.
However, according to the UN, although battle related deaths have been decreasing, the number of conflicts occurring in the last few years has actually been on the rise (they have simply remained less deadly). Most conflicts have been waged by non-state actors, like organized criminal groups and political militias.
The UN found that the most common causes of conflict today are:
- Regional tensions
- Breakdowns in the rule of law
- Co-opted or absent state institutions
- Illicit economic gain
- Scarcity of resources exacerbated by climate change
Traditional war between countries and war-related deaths may be becoming a thing of the past, but the threat of violence is still very real. Many countries know this as they continue to build up armies and spend significant amounts on military and defense.
The Future of Warfare
War and conflict are still extremely relevant in the 21st century and impact millions of people. However, traditional warfare may be changing its shape and may become less deadly as a result.
For instance, issues like climate change will create further exacerbations on conflicts, and new forms of technological and cyber warfare could threaten countries’ elections and manipulate populations.
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