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AMERICA VOTES: 10 Key Charts Show What Could Happen Today

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Election day is finally here.

Here’s 10 charts and maps that will help prepare your brain for what may come this evening.

1. Media “Consensus” is a Clinton Victory

It’s been a roller coaster over recent months, but the media “consensus” view is that Clinton has the best odds at winning the race. The above chart from Josh Katz plots the chance of a Clinton victory over the last three months according to various publications.

2. But Brexit Moments Happen…

FiveThirtyEight odds of winning
FiveThirtyEight odds over time

As we all saw in June, polling numbers are not to be trusted.

Even though the consensus view seems to be a Clinton victory, renowned statistician Nate Silver gives us significantly different odds. According to his website, the chance of a Trump victory is at roughly 28% as we head into Election Day.

Silver also recently defended his model on Twitter:

3. The Trump Path to Victory

While a Trump victory is less likely, if it were to happen it may look something like this:

A Possible Trump Victory

To stand a chance, Trump has to take Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. That would get him to 259 electoral votes.

Then he’d need to find 11 votes elsewhere: winning one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia would work. However, he has trailed in polls in these three states for months.

4. Demographics are Destiny

Demographics are Destiny

Trump and Clinton appeal to different groups of people.

For Trump to succeed, he will need working class whites to show up in droves at polling stations, and to somehow find cross-over appeal from other voting blocs.

5. Demographics are Destiny – Part Deux

Hispanic population

Clinton will also need a strong turnout from the growing share of Hispanic voters in the country. This is especially important in states like Arizona, Florida, and New Mexico.

6. Obama is Hillary’s not-so-secret weapon

Obama Approval

Obama’s approval rating is at its highest point in years, and this could end up being a deciding factor in mobilizing enough voters for Clinton.

7. Will voter turnout improve, generally?

Voter Turnout

Voter turnout in the 2012 election was low in comparison to other developed countries.

The question is: will it be higher in 2016, and who does this benefit the most?

8. Everyone’s a Hater

Unfavorable candidates

Maybe turnout will be high because of the “lesser evil” vote. After all, these are two of the most disliked candidates in history.

By the way, the above numbers are from summer 2016 – before the “lewd conversation” incident, the additional Trump sexual assault accusations, the release of most of the Podesta emails, and the re-opening (and re-closing) of Clinton’s FBI case.

9. A divided country

Unfavorability by state

No matter who wins, the country will remain very divided over the near future. There will likely be a significant amount of disgruntled people in practically every state.

10. Money Raised

With the hype around the election, one would guess that the respective campaigns of Clinton and Trump would be destined for the record books.

However, that’s simply not the case:

Election campaign spend history

The above chart by Max Galka shows normalized campaign finance history since 1960.

Clinton spent less than Obama did for either of his campaigns, and Trump was outspent by each of the last four Republican campaigns (Romney, McCain, and G.W. Bush 2x).

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Data Visualization

Visualizing the Happiest Country on Every Continent

Where are the happiest, least happy, and fastest improving countries worldwide? We’ve broken down this annual ranking by region to answer that question.

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Visualizing the Happiest Country on Every Continent

The state of our world is shifting beneath our feet — economics alone no longer equate to satisfaction, let alone happiness.

Today’s visualization pulls data from the seventh World Happiness Report 2019, which ranks 156 countries by their happiness levels. We’ve previously shown the variables used to measure happiness in this report, but here, we break down rankings by continent and region for a clearer picture of where each country lies.

happiness north america map

North America

Unhappy Americans have caused the country to tumble in rankings for a third straight year, despite evidence that things are generally looking up. The report attributes much of this erosion to a variety of addictions: opioids, workaholism, gambling, internet, exercise, and even shopping are among them.

Haiti is the least happy country in this region. The country is still struggling to rebuild sanitation infrastructure and other educational and healthcare programs, despite foreign aid.

In brighter news, Nicaragua is seeing great gains in happiness levels, as the country makes a concentrated effort to reduce poverty.

happiness south america map

South America

In South America, the majority of countries cluster around a score of six on the happiness scale.

The one notable exception to this is Venezuela, which is faltering in both happiness rank and regional improvement. The nation’s hyperinflation and humanitarian crisis both show no signs of slowing down.

happiness europe map

Europe

Finland comes out on top of the world for a second consecutive year, and it’s not difficult to see why. The country boasts a stable work-life balance, bolstered by a comprehensive welfare state.

Scandinavian countries appear among the happiest nations for similar very reasons — elevating the region’s score to 16% above the global average.

On the flip side, Ukraine is the unhappiest, likely intensified by the ongoing war in southeastern Donbass. Greece is the least improved, as it continues to heal from the sovereign debt crisis.

happiness middle east map

Middle East and Central Asia

Uzbekistan shows the swiftest regional improvement, as the country has launched an ambitious reform agenda for greater economic, social, and political development and openness.

Unfortunately, Syria’s continued civil war comes with a heavy price for its people and economy, as does the Palestinian-Israeli conflict — although the latter doesn’t seem to impact Israel’s happiness ranking. In fact, Israel finished with the 13th best score, globally.

happiness asia 2019

Rest of Asia and Oceania

In East Asia, the average happiness score is quite close to the global average, with Taiwan standing out as the happiest country.

Singapore out-competes other countries within Southeast Asia, despite only being home to a population of 5.6 million. Its neighbor Malaysia, however, plunged from 35th to 80th place.

Oceania stands alone – Australia and New Zealand are closely matched in their individual happiness scores.

happiness africa map

Africa

The African continent as a whole fares 19.2% below the global average. But there are silver linings, with strong strides towards improvement being made.

Mauritius benefits from good governance and a buoyant tourism sector — with visitor arrivals equal to the island’s 1.3 million population. Meanwhile, Benin has soared in the rankings, and is supported by the World Bank in key structural reforms such as poverty reduction and access to basic services.

What could these rankings look like in another ten years?

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Misc

Arms Sales: USA vs. Russia (1950-2017)

This intense animation plots data on nearly 70 years of arms sales, to compare the influence of the two superpowers from the Cold War to modern times.

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Arms Sales: USA vs. Russia (1950-2017)

Between countless proxy wars and the growing threat of nuclear catastrophe, the Cold War created an unprecedented geopolitical climate.

For nearly half a century, the world’s two biggest superpowers were scrambling to top one another by any means necessary. It was a tension that ignited everything from the space race to sports rivalries, with the impact often spilling over to neighboring nations.

Not only did the U.S. and Soviet Union duke it out in the mother of all arms races – they also extended their influence by selling arms outside of their borders. Interestingly, this latter race continues on until today, almost three decades after the fall of the Iron Curtain.

Visualizing Arms Sales

Today’s animation comes from data scientist Will Geary, and it shows the history of international arms sales originating from the U.S. and the Soviet Union (later Russia) from 1950 to 2017.

More specifically, using data from the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, the animation shows the geographic movement of arms from country to country as well as the evolving share of the arms trade held by the respective countries. The video is also pleasantly backed by audio that represents music from each decade, ranging from Buffalo Springfield to The Clash.

Peak Arms Dominance

If you watch the pie chart in the upper left corner of the animation, you’ll see that the early-1960s is the peak of U.S. and Soviet arm dominance – at this point, around the same time as the Cuban Missile Crisis and then the JFK assassination, the two superpowers combined for 80% of global arms sales.

In the 1960s, the biggest customers of U.S. arms were Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan – while the Soviets sent the most weapons to Egypt, Poland, and East Germany.

Fall of the Wall

By the 1980s, the global arms trade started dying down as Soviet leaders like Gorbachev focused on domestic reforms, and eventually perestroika.

Later, the Soviet Union dissolved, and arms sales continued to plunge all the way to 2001:

Arms exports by year

Since then, arms sales have been ramping up again – and today, they are back at levels last seen before the Berlin Wall came down.

The Modern Era

Who is selling the most arms, according to the last 10 years of data?

Arms sales by country

Even though the Cold War is now long gone, the U.S. and Russia have kept their legacy of international arms sales going well into the 21st century.

And today, the two nations combine for roughly 60% of arms sales, with top U.S. weapons manufacturers like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon getting a big slice of that pie.

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