In just a few weeks time, the ballots will be in for one of the most controversial elections in U.S. history. Whether the tally ends in a Clinton or Trump presidency, it’s difficult to know the potential range of implications that the 2016 election will have on markets.
In the mean time, investors are wondering how to best position themselves. How could the election possibly affect their portfolio, and how can they hedge against tail risks?
Market Performance in Election Years
The good news for investors is that historically, the market has performed well in election years with the S&P 500 ending up in positive territory 82% of the time.
The bad news? This is clearly not a normal election.
The following infographic uses data from Fisher Investments to show how the S&P 500 historically performs during U.S. election years, as well as during the terms of specific presidents.
The aggregate data is clear – here’s how the S&P 500 does in different years of the presidency:
|Year of Term||Positive Returns||Negative Returns|
Even though the election year (Year 4) has positive returns 82% of the time, things obviously get murkier when we look at the current situation.
Clinton and Trump are the two most disliked candidates in history, and third-party candidates such as Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and Evan McMullin are polling relatively high in certain states.
Some see a Trump presidency as a guarantee for extremely volatile markets, while others see a Democrat landslide as also posing a huge market risk. Meanwhile, there are all kinds of weird hypothetical situations that could occur that would likely give traders migraines.
One of these tail risk events was highlighted by Nate Silver in early October. It involves Gary Johnson winning his home state of New Mexico (where he is polling at 24%) and at the same time neither Trump or Clinton getting enough votes to win the Electoral College. It’s unlikely, but still possible.
No matter how the results shake out, this election year will have long-lasting implications for all market participants, and it is likely that many lessons will be learned by traders.
Ranked: The Megaregions Driving the Global Economy
Today’s stunning map ranks the world’s most powerful megaregions — together, they contribute a whopping $28 trillion to the global economy.
Ranked: The Megaregions Driving the Global Economy
If you’ve ever flown cross-country in a window seat, chances are, the bright lights at night have caught your eye. From above, the world tells its own story—as concentrated pockets of bright light keep the world’s economy thriving.
Today’s visualization relies on data compiled by CityLab researchers to identify the world’s largest megaregions. The team defines megaregions as:
- Areas of continuous light, based on the latest night satellite imagery
- Capturing metro areas or networks of metro areas, with a combined population of 5 million or higher
- Generating economic output (GDP) of over $300 billion, on a PPP basis
It’s worth pointing out that each megaregion may not be connected by specific trade relationships. Rather, satellite data highlights the proximity between these rough but useful regional estimates contributing to the global economy—and supercities are at the heart of it.
From Megalopolis to Megaregion
Throughout history, academics have described vast, interlinked urban regions as a ‘megalopolis’, or ‘megapolis’. Economic geographer Jean Gottman popularized the Greek term, referring to the booming and unprecedented urbanization in Bos-Wash—the northeast stretch from Boston and New York down to Washington, D.C.:
This region has indeed a “personality” of its own […] Every city in this region spreads out far and wide around its original nucleus.
By looking at adjacent metropolitan areas rather than country-level data, it can help provide an entirely new perspective on the global distribution of economic activity.
Where in the world are the most powerful urban economic clusters today?
The Largest Megaregions Today
The world’s economy is a sum of its parts. Each megaregion contributes significantly to the global growth engine, but arguably, certain areas pull more weight than others.
|Megaregion||Cities||Region||Population||Economic Output (EO)||EO per Capita|
|1. Bos-Wash||New York, Washington, D.C., Boston||North America||47.6M||$3,650B||$76,681|
|2. Par-Am-Mun||Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, Munich||Europe||43.5M||$2,505B||$57,586|
|3. Chi-Pitts||Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh||North America||32.9M||$2,130B||$64,742|
|4. Greater Tokyo||Tokyo||Asia||39.1M||$1,800B||$46,036|
|5. SoCal||Los Angeles, San Diego||North America||22M||$1,424B||$64,727|
|6. Seoul-San||Seoul, Busan||Asia||35.5M||$1,325B||$37,324|
|7. Texas Triangle||Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin||North America||18.4M||$1,227B||$66,685|
|8. Beijing||Beijing, Tianjin||Asia||37.4M||$1,226B||$32,781|
|9. Lon-Leed-Chester||London, Leeds, Manchester||Europe||22.6M||$1,177B||$52,080|
|10. Hong-Shen||Hong Kong, Shenzhen||Asia||19.5M||$1,043B||$53,487|
|11. NorCal||San Francisco, San Jose||North America||10.8M||$925B||$85,648|
|12. Shanghai||Shanghai, Hangzhou||Asia||24.2M||$892B||$36,860|
|14. São Paolo||São Paolo||South America||33.5M||$780B||$23,284|
|15. Char-Lanta||Charlotte, Atlanta||North America||10.5M||$656B||$62,476|
|16. Cascadia||Seattle, Portland||North America||8.8M||$627B||$71,250|
|17. Ista-Burs||Istanbul, Bursa||MENA||14.8M||$626B||$42,297|
|18. Vienna-Budapest||Vienna, Budapest||Europe||12.8M||$555B||$43,359|
|19. Mexico City||Mexico City||North America||24.5M||$524B||$21,388|
|20. Rome-Mil-Tur||Rome, Milan, Turin||Europe||13.8M||$513B||$37,174|
|21. Singa-Lumpur||Singapore, Kuala Lumpur||Asia||12.7M||$493B||$38,819|
|22. Cairo-Aviv||Cairo, Tel Aviv||MENA||19.8M||$472B||$23,838|
|23. So-Flo||Miami, Tampa||North America||9.1M||$470B||$51,648|
|24. Abu-Dubai||Abu Dhabi, Dubai||MENA||5M||$431B||$86,200|
|25. Osaka-Nagoya (tied)||Osaka, Nagoya||Asia||9.1M||$424B||$46,593|
|25. Tor-Buff-Chester (tied)||Toronto, Buffalo, Rochester||North America||8.5M||$424B||$49,882|
|27. Delhi-Lahore||New Delhi, Lahore||Asia||27.9M||$417B||$14,946|
|28. Barcelona-Lyon||Barcelona, Lyon||Europe||7M||$323B||$46,143|
|29. Shandong||Jinan, Zibo, Dongying||Asia||14.2M||$249B||$17,535|
Altogether, these powerhouses bring in over $28 trillion in economic output.
Unsurprisingly, Bos-Wash reigns supreme even today, with $3.6 trillion in economic output, over 13% of the total. The corridor hosts some of the highest-paying sectors: information technology, finance, and professional services.
The largest city in Brazil, São Paulo, is the only city in the Southern Hemisphere to make the list. The city was once heavily reliant on manufacturing and trade, but the $780 billion city economy is now embracing its role as a nascent financial hub.
On the other side of the world, the cluster of Asian megaregions combines for $8.7 trillion in total economic output. Of these, Greater Tokyo in Japan is the largest, while Shandong might be a name that fewer people are familiar with. Sandwiched between Beijing and Shanghai, the coastal province houses multiple high-tech industrial and export processing zones.
The data is even more interesting when broken down into economic output per capita—Abu-Dubai churns out an impressive $86,200 per person. Meanwhile, Delhi-Lahore is lowest on the per-capita list, at $14,946 per person across nearly 28 million people.
Where To Next?
This trend shows no sign of slowing down, as megacities are on the rise in the coming decade. Eventually, more Indian and African megaregions will make its way onto this list, led by cities like Lagos and Chennai.
Stay tuned to Visual Capitalist for a North America-specific outlook coming soon, and a deep dive into the biggest factors contributing to the growth of these megaregions.
Cultivating Cannabis: The Journey from Seed to Harvest
The estimated $63.5 billion green rush has led to increased revenues in cannabis cultivation—positively impacting other industries
Cultivating Cannabis: The Journey from Seed to Harvest
Cannabis is emerging from the shadows of strict regulation, prompting the growth of a global market worth almost $25 billion today. This green rush has led to increased revenues throughout the entire cannabis supply chain—most notably in cannabis cultivation.
Such growth is rippling across industries such as energy and agriculture technology, with innovation allowing for greater scale.
Today’s infographic from Water Ways Technologies follows the journey of the cannabis plant, and explores cutting-edge technology that will fuel the future of cannabis cultivation.
Breaking Down the Cultivation Process
Cannabis is an annual plant, meaning it naturally goes through its entire life cycle in one year. However, this cycle is shortened to 3 months in commercial cultivation to improve productivity.
Plants can be grown from either a seed or a clone. The cloning method guarantees consistency, cost savings, and provides genetic stability from a disease-free source. All of these factors contribute to its popularity with commercial growers and the medical cannabis community.
Each stage requires different variables to ensure the highest standards are being met.
- 1: Creating a Mother Plant: 3 months, 4 times a year
Mother plants create an endless supply of clones, making this stage the most crucial. The mother plant starts as a seed, chosen for desirable qualities that the grower wants to replicate—like aroma, flavor, and yield.
- 2: Making a Clone: 7-10 days
Growers then take clippings from the chosen mother plant, and dip each one in water and fertilizer. They are then soaked in rooting fluid and placed in a plug (individual cell), before entering an incubator.
The clippings remain here until they finish rooting. The incubator maintains the plant’s moisture by facilitating leaf absorption.
- 3: Vegetation Process: 3-4 weeks
The clones are transferred to growing rooms and placed into a light substance similar to soil. They are moved on to flood benches—large tables that re-circulate excess water and fertilizer—which enable the optimal uptake of nutrients.
During this phase, the clones require 18 hours of light and 6 hours of darkness. There must be a constant analysis of the radiation levels to combat any damage from the artificial light source.
- 4: Flowering: 6-8 weeks
Following the vegetation process, the plants are separated into different flowering rooms. During this phase, buds grow and develop a solid cannabinoid and terpene profile. Terpenes are organic compounds that give cannabis varieties their distinctive aromas like citrus, berry, mint, and pine.
- 5: Post-harvest: 1-3 weeks
The cannabis plant is harvested once it reaches maturity. The flowers are de-budded, trimmed, and set on drying trays in a post-harvest room with low humidity, before they are ready for extraction.
This final stage requires a substantial amount of time and attention to detail, to ensure the best quality and most potent product possible.
Cultivating the Future of Cannabis
Efficiently producing high-quality, consistent cannabis will help meet growing consumer demand. Water Ways Technologies is an agro-tech company helping to propel this growth, by providing cultivators with data-driven insights from their precise irrigation system.
With a strong understanding of the full cannabis life cycle, Water Ways Technologies ensures that adjustments can be made at different stages throughout the growing process, resulting in the highest standards, and wider profit margins for investors.
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