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Animation: Stock Market vs. GDP Share, by Country (1900-2022)

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Stock Market vs. GDP Share, by Country (1900-2022)

While the distribution of global GDP has diversified over time, the global stock market remains dominated by a few developed financial markets.

In 2022, the U.S. accounted for 59% of global stock market capitalization, with a 21% share of global GDP. To put that into context, China makes up just 4% of the global stock market despite accounting for 16% of global GDP.

To explore the roots of this disconnect, this animated bar chart from James Eagle compares countries’ share of the global stock market and global GDP over 122 years from 1900 to 2022.

Understanding the Divergence: Stock Markets vs GDP

Before diving into the gap between GDP and stock market capitalization, it’s important to understand the fundamental difference between the two measures:

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Represents the total value of all the goods and services produced in an economy in a given year, including government spending.
  • Stock Market Capitalization: Reflects the dollar value of all outstanding shares in the stock market, which are priced based on several factors including current and projected financial performance as well as economic conditions.

Essentially, changes in GDP echo the health and growth of the economy. Meanwhile, stock market valuations are more forward-looking and track how specific companies and industries are expected to deliver value to shareholders.

Besides these fundamental differences, here are two other factors that could influence the divergence between stock markets and GDP:

  1. Financial Market Maturity: Not all economies have equally developed or accessible financial markets. Mature financial markets like the U.S. offer a more conducive environment for businesses to access public capital.
  2. Economic Composition: The structure of an economy may not always mirror its stock market. For example, a country’s agricultural sector might generate a large portion of GDP, but may not be lucrative enough to be well-represented in the stock market.

Additionally, factors like a country’s political stability and regulatory environment can also influence investors’ willingness to invest in its stock markets.

With that context in mind, let’s look at how the composition of the global stock market and GDP has changed over time.

1900s: A Diverse Global Economy

In the year 1900, both the global stock market and economy were fairly diverse. The UK had the largest stock market, while the U.S. held the largest share of GDP.

CountryShare of Global Stock MarketShare of Global GDP
🇬🇧 UK24.2%9.2%
🇺🇸 U.S.14.4%18.0%
🇩🇪 Germany12.6%7.6%
🇫🇷 France11.1%5.5%
🇦🇹 Austria5.0%0.8%
🇨🇳 China0.4%11.0%
🌏 Other32.3%47.9%

Meanwhile, China was the second-largest economy with 11% of the global GDP but made up just 0.4% of the worldwide stock market. At the time, China was under the rule of the Qing Dynasty, the country’s final imperial dynasty.

In 1901, the U.S. overtook the UK as the world’s largest stock market. By 1945, it was extending its dominance, accounting for nearly half of the worldwide stock market and 28% of the global GDP.

As other economies grew, America’s share of global GDP began declining, but its stock market share continued increasing and peaked at 71.6% in 1966. However, the peak was short-lived, with Japan’s economy experiencing a remarkable recovery.

1970–1990: Japan’s Economic Miracle

Following World War II, the Japanese economy shifted gears from devastation to rapid economic growth.

Driven by governmental guidance, export-focused policies, and technological innovations, Japan’s share of global GDP jumped from 3% in 1950 to over 8% in the 1980s. Simultaneously, Japan’s share of the global stock market grew from less than 1% in 1950 to 40% by 1988, briefly making it the country with the largest stock market.

However, this bubble burst in the early 1990s, leading to Japan’s “lost decade”. Since then, both the U.S. economy and stock market have been the largest in the world.

2000s: U.S. Dominance and China’s Growth

The beginning of the 21st century cemented America’s position in the global stock market, supported by the rise of tech giants like Apple, Google, and Amazon.

Simultaneously, the global economic landscape shifted with the ascent of emerging markets like China averaging annual growth rates of around 10%. By 2010, China accounted for 14% of global GDP.

However, China’s stock markets did not grow as fast, and U.S. exchanges dominated the equity markets throughout the 2000s. As of 2022, the U.S. accounted for more than half of the world’s stock market capitalization, followed from afar by Japan:

CountryShare of Global Stock MarketShare of Global GDP
🇺🇸 U.S.59.6%20.7%
🇯🇵 Japan6.3%4.4%
🇬🇧 UK3.9%3.1%
🇨🇳 China3.6%15.8%
🇫🇷 France2.8%2.9%
🌏 Other23.8%53.1%

The U.S. stock market is prevalent partly because exchanges are subject to strict regulations and offer a relatively stable business and political environment for companies. Furthermore, the U.S. is home to 31 of the 50 most valuable companies in the world, from a range of different industries.

Meanwhile, China’s stock market accounts for 3.6% of the global total, up from 0% in 2000. Despite being a relatively smaller player in the global stock market, China’s economy is massive and accounts for nearly 16% of the global GDP.

Looking Ahead

Given the fundamental differences between stock market capitalization and GDP, it’s likely that the divergence in these two measures will persist in the future.

For example, many emerging economies in Africa and Asia are projected to grow rapidly over the next few decades, likely increasing their share of the global GDP. However, their stock markets may not follow the same trajectory.

Although the U.S. faces competition from emerging financial markets, it could continue to dominate the global stock market for the foreseeable future.

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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The Top 10 States by Real GDP Growth in 2023

This graphic shows the states with the highest real GDP growth rate in 2023, largely propelled by the oil and gas boom.

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The Top 10 States by Real GDP Growth in 2023

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Fueled by strong consumer spending and a resilient job market, the U.S. economy expanded faster than expected in 2023, with a real GDP growth rate of 2.5%.

Oil-rich states were among the strongest performers in the country as production boomed. Much of this was due to the war in Ukraine driving up the price of oil, spurring companies to boost output. Other sectors, such as retail trade, also played a key role in driving growth amid robust consumer demand.

This graphic shows the fastest growing states by real GDP, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

 

Strongest State Economies in 2023

As the world’s largest oil producer, the U.S. hit a historic 12.9 million barrels per day in crude oil production in 2023—more than any other country ever.

Given these tailwinds, the top five fastest-growing states by real GDP in 2023 were all powered by the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector. Below, we show the strongest state economies by real GDP growth last year:

RankStateReal GDP Growth
2023 YoY
Real GDP 2023
1North Dakota+5.9%$58B
2Texas+5.7%$2.0T
3Wyoming+5.4%$39B
4Alaska+5.3%$53B
5Oklahoma+5.3%$202B
6Nebraska+5.2%$144B
7Florida+5.0%$1.3T
8Washington+4.8%$672B
9West Virginia+4.7%$80B
10Kansas+4.3%$182B
U.S.+2.5%$22.4T

North Dakota witnessed the highest growth, with real GDP rising by 5.9%.

As the third largest oil-producing state, it also has one of the strongest job markets in the country. In February 2024, the state’s unemployment rate was 2.0%, significantly lower than the national average of 3.9%.

Falling in second is Texas, whose economy surged to $2 trillion in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2023, the oil and gas industry generated about $72 million per day in local and state taxes in addition to state royalties. Roughly half of U.S. crude oil exports are shipped from Corpus Christi Bay, a port along the Texas coastline.

As the seventh-fastest growing state, Florida’s economy was largely supported by retail trade, its biggest driver. Moreover, Florida boasted the highest growth rates nationwide in both personal and property income, rising at 7.0% and 8.8%, respectively, over the year.

By contrast, some of the slowest growing states were Delaware, Mississippi, and New York, each with a real GDP growth rate falling below 1%.

 

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