Markets
Visualizing the Global Share of U.S. Stock Markets
Visualizing the Global Share of U.S. Stock Markets
One of the most potent symbols of American financial dominance is the combined market capitalization of the country’s two biggest stock exchanges—the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ.
These two major listing hubs dwarf all other exchanges around the world. In fact, the NYSE on its own is larger than the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Japan, and Euronext exchanges put together.
| Rank | Exchange | Market Cap (Oct '22) | Location | Approx. # of companies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | NYSE | $22.8T | United States 🇺🇸 | 2,400 |
| #2 | NASDAQ | $16.2T | United States 🇺🇸 | 3,700 |
| #3 | Shanghai Stock Exchange | $6.7T | China 🇨🇳 | 1,600 |
| #4 | EuroNext | $6.1T | Europe 🇪🇺 | 800 |
| #5 | Japan Exchange Group | $5.4T | Japan 🇯🇵 | 3,800 |
| #6 | Shenzhen Stock Exchange | $4.7T | China 🇨🇳 | 2,800 |
| #7 | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | $4.6T | Hong Kong SAR 🇭🇰 | 2,600 |
| #8 | National Stock Exchange of India | $3.3T | India 🇮🇳 | 2,100 |
| #9 | London Stock Exchange | $3.1T | UK 🇬🇧 | 1,900 |
| #10 | Toronto Stock Exchange | $2.7T | Canada 🇨🇦 | 1,500 |
One of the key reasons for this dominance is the sheer size of the U.S. economy. With a GDP of over $25 trillion, the U.S. economy is the largest in the world, and American exchanges are home to some of the world’s largest and most valuable companies, including tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft.
As of January 2023, the value of stocks listed on U.S. exchanges made up 42% of the global total. How does this total stack up, historically?
The U.S. Share Over Time
For much of the 1970s, the U.S. made up more than half of global stock market value. Over the course of the 1980s, the U.S. share of the global total began to dip, driven in part by the asset price bubble in Japan.
More recently, the U.S. slice of the equities pie bottomed out temporarily around the time of the Financial Crisis, but has been steadily rising ever since.
Will U.S. Exchanges Ever Be Surpassed?
U.S. stock exchanges have several advantages that make them attractive to investors, including strong regulatory oversight, a stable political and economic environment, and a diverse pool of well-known companies to invest in. The U.S. stock exchanges also have a long history of innovation and technological advancement, which has helped to maintain their position as leading global exchanges.
In 2018, PwC surveyed hundreds of capital market participants on the future of stock exchanges. Respondents felt that, by 2030, many of today’s top exchanges would remain popular choices for companies looking to go public.
Despite obvious advantages, U.S. exchanges do face plenty of competition, especially in emerging markets like China and India. The Shanghai Stock Exchange, for example, has seen significant growth in recent years and is now the world’s third-largest exchange by market capitalization.
Even as other markets continue to grow, U.S. exchanges are likely to remain a preferred destination for investors around the world for years to come.
Markets
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.
We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.
Disinflation vs. Deflation
The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.
| Time Period | March 1980-July 1983 | June 2022-April 2023* |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation at Start of Cycle | 14.8% | 9.1% |
| Inflation at End of Cycle | 2.5% | 4.9% |
* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.
A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?
Looking to History
There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.
With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.
Equity Issuance
Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.
| Year | Deal Value |
|---|---|
| 1980 | $2.6B |
| 1981 | $5.0B |
| 1982 | $3.6B |
| 1983 | $13.5B |
| 1984 | $2.5B |
| 1985 | $12.0B |
| 1986 | $24.2B |
| 1987 | $24.9B |
| 1988 | $16.9B |
| 1989 | $12.9B |
| 1990 | $13.4B |
| 1991 | $45.2B |
| 1992 | $50.3B |
| 1993 | $95.3B |
| 1994 | $63.7B |
| 1995 | $79.7B |
| 1996 | $108.7B |
| 1997 | $106.5B |
| 1998 | $97.0B |
| 1999 | $142.8B |
| 2000 | $156.5B |
Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.
Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.
Debt Issuance
Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.
| Year | Deal Value | Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | $4.5B | 11.4% |
| 1981 | $6.7B | 13.9% |
| 1982 | $14.5B | 13.0% |
| 1983 | $8.1B | 11.1% |
| 1984 | $25.7B | 12.5% |
| 1985 | $46.4B | 10.6% |
| 1986 | $47.1B | 7.7% |
| 1987 | $26.4B | 8.4% |
| 1988 | $24.7B | 8.9% |
| 1989 | $29.9B | 8.5% |
| 1990 | $40.2B | 8.6% |
| 1991 | $41.6B | 7.9% |
| 1992 | $50.0B | 7.0% |
| 1993 | $487.8B | 5.9% |
| 1994 | $526.4B | 7.1% |
| 1995 | $632.7B | 6.6% |
| 1996 | $906.0B | 6.4% |
| 1997 | $1.3T | 6.4% |
| 1998 | $1.8T | 5.3% |
| 1999 | $1.8T | 5.7% |
| 2000 | $2.8T | 6.0% |
Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.
As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.
It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.
Then vs. Now
Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.
Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.
| January 1981 | April 2023* | |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Annual | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| Inflation Expectations Next 12 Months | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| Interest Rate 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 12.6% | 3.7% |
| Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| Nominal Wage Growth Annual, Seasonally Adjusted | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| After-Tax Corporate Profits As Share of Gross Value Added | 9.1% | 13.8% |
* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.
What to Consider During Disinflation
Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.
- High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
- High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
- Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.
In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.
Learn more about working with Citizens.
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