Markets
Visualizing the Global Share of U.S. Stock Markets
Visualizing the Global Share of U.S. Stock Markets
One of the most potent symbols of American financial dominance is the combined market capitalization of the country’s two biggest stock exchanges—the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ.
These two major listing hubs dwarf all other exchanges around the world. In fact, the NYSE on its own is larger than the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Japan, and Euronext exchanges put together.
| Rank | Exchange | Market Cap (Oct '22) | Location | Approx. # of companies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | NYSE | $22.8T | United States 🇺🇸 | 2,400 |
| #2 | NASDAQ | $16.2T | United States 🇺🇸 | 3,700 |
| #3 | Shanghai Stock Exchange | $6.7T | China 🇨🇳 | 1,600 |
| #4 | EuroNext | $6.1T | Europe 🇪🇺 | 800 |
| #5 | Japan Exchange Group | $5.4T | Japan 🇯🇵 | 3,800 |
| #6 | Shenzhen Stock Exchange | $4.7T | China 🇨🇳 | 2,800 |
| #7 | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | $4.6T | Hong Kong SAR 🇭🇰 | 2,600 |
| #8 | National Stock Exchange of India | $3.3T | India 🇮🇳 | 2,100 |
| #9 | London Stock Exchange | $3.1T | UK 🇬🇧 | 1,900 |
| #10 | Toronto Stock Exchange | $2.7T | Canada 🇨🇦 | 1,500 |
One of the key reasons for this dominance is the sheer size of the U.S. economy. With a GDP of over $25 trillion, the U.S. economy is the largest in the world, and American exchanges are home to some of the world’s largest and most valuable companies, including tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft.
As of January 2023, the value of stocks listed on U.S. exchanges made up 42% of the global total. How does this total stack up, historically?
The U.S. Share Over Time
For much of the 1970s, the U.S. made up more than half of global stock market value. Over the course of the 1980s, the U.S. share of the global total began to dip, driven in part by the asset price bubble in Japan.
More recently, the U.S. slice of the equities pie bottomed out temporarily around the time of the Financial Crisis, but has been steadily rising ever since.
Will U.S. Exchanges Ever Be Surpassed?
U.S. stock exchanges have several advantages that make them attractive to investors, including strong regulatory oversight, a stable political and economic environment, and a diverse pool of well-known companies to invest in. The U.S. stock exchanges also have a long history of innovation and technological advancement, which has helped to maintain their position as leading global exchanges.
In 2018, PwC surveyed hundreds of capital market participants on the future of stock exchanges. Respondents felt that, by 2030, many of today’s top exchanges would remain popular choices for companies looking to go public.
Despite obvious advantages, U.S. exchanges do face plenty of competition, especially in emerging markets like China and India. The Shanghai Stock Exchange, for example, has seen significant growth in recent years and is now the world’s third-largest exchange by market capitalization.
Even as other markets continue to grow, U.S. exchanges are likely to remain a preferred destination for investors around the world for years to come.
Markets
3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble
Valuations are much lower than they were during the dot-com bubble, but what else sets the current AI enthusiasm apart?
3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble
Artificial intelligence, like the internet during the dot-com bubble, is getting a lot of attention these days. In the second quarter of 2023, 177 S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” during their earnings call, nearly triple the five-year average.
Not only that, companies that mentioned “AI” saw their stock price rise 13.3% from December 2022 to September 2023, compared to 1.5% for those that didn’t.
In this graphic from New York Life Investments, we look at current market conditions to find out if AI could be the next dot-com bubble.
Comparing the Dot-Com Bubble to Today
In the late 1990s, frenzied optimism for internet-related stocks led to a rapid rise in valuations and an eventual market crash in the early 2000s. By the time the market hit rock bottom, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index had dropped 82% from its peak.
The growing enthusiasm for AI has some concerned that it could be the next dot-com bubble. But here are three reasons that the current environment is different.
1. Valuations Are Lower
Stock valuations are much lower than they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. For example, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 is significantly lower than it was in 2000.
| Date | Forward P/E Ratio |
|---|---|
| March 2000 | 60.1x |
| November 2023 | 26.4x |
Lower valuations are an indication that investors are putting more emphasis on earnings and stocks are less at risk of being overvalued.
2. Investors Are More Hesitant
During the dot-com bubble, flows to equity funds increased by 76% from 1999 to 2000.
| Year | Combined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds |
|---|---|
| 1997 | $231B |
| 1998 | $163B |
| 1999 | $200B |
| 2000 | $352B |
| 2001 | $63B |
| 2002 | $14B |
Source: Investment Company Institute
In contrast, equity fund flows have been negative in 2022 and 2023.
| Year | Combined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds |
|---|---|
| 2021 | $295B |
| 2022 | -$54B |
| 2023* | -$137B |
Source: Investment Company Institute
*2023 data is from January to September.
Based on fund flows, investors appear hesitant of stocks, rather than overly exuberant.
3. Companies Are More Established
Leading up to the internet bubble, the number of technology IPOs increased substantially.
| Year | Number of Technology IPOs | Median Age |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 174 | 8 |
| 1998 | 113 | 7 |
| 1999 | 370 | 4 |
| 2000 | 261 | 5 |
| 2001 | 24 | 9 |
| 2002 | 20 | 9 |
Many of these companies were relatively new and, at the peak of the bubble in 2000, only 14% of them were profitable.
In recent years, there have been far fewer tech IPOs as companies wait for more positive market conditions. And those that have gone public, the median age is much higher.
| Year | Number of Technology IPOs | Median Age |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 48 | 12 |
| 2021 | 126 | 12 |
| 2022 | 6 | 15 |
Ultimately, many of the companies benefitting from AI are established companies that are already publicly traded. New, unproven companies are much less common in public markets.
Navigating Modern Tech Amid Dot-Com Bubble Worries
Valuations, equity flows, and the shortage of tech IPOs all suggest that AI isn’t shaping up to be the next dot-com bubble.
However, risk is still present in the market. For instance, only 33% of tech companies that went public in 2022 were profitable. Investors can help manage their risk by keeping a diversified portfolio rather than choosing individual stocks.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments.
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