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Visualized: The State of the U.S. Labor Market

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Visualized: The State of the U.S. Labor Market

Visualized: The State of the U.S. Labor Market

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The last time the U.S. labor market was this strong was in 1969.

Unemployment fell to 3.3%, incomes were soaring to historic levels, and inflation was rising at a fast clip. Like today, the Federal Reserve was tightening monetary policy to stifle inflation. Yet much of the wage increases were washed out by rising consumer prices.

The above graphic looks at the industries driving today’s robust job market using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Later, we look into the impact on inflation, and whether today’s market can be sustained.

What is Driving the U.S. Labor Market?

Broadly, service-led industries witnessed the highest share of job growth in January.

Still, as the table below shows, a key part of the services sector—leisure and hospitality employment—remains under pre-pandemic levels. A similar trend is seen in retail services.

Rank
IndustryJob Growth
Jan 2023
Job Growth
Since 2020
1Leisure and Hospitality128K-495K
2Education and Health
Services
105K361K
3Professional and Business
Services
82K1,475K
4Government74K-482K
5Retail Services30K-37K
6Construction25K276K
7Transportation and
Warehousing
23K955K
8Manufacturing19K214K
9Other Services18K-121K
10Wholesale Trade11K148K
11Financial Activities6K245K
12Mining and Logging2K-55K
13Utilities-1K8K
14Information-5K211K

Adding 1.5 million jobs since 2020 is professional and business services, the highest overall. This sector covers legal, accounting, veterinary, engineering and other specialized services.

We are also seeing strong gains in transportation and warehousing. Last year, the sector added an average of 23,000 jobs, totaling almost 955,000 over the course of the pandemic. Today, trucking jobs exceed 2019 levels and warehouse employment is roughly 50% higher.

Although manufacturing hasn’t seen the highest gains, the sector has one of the lowest unemployment rates across job sectors, at 2.4%. Yet the industry faces an acute labor shortage—if every skilled unemployed worker were to fill open job vacancies, a third of jobs in durable manufacturing would remain open.

Cooling Wage Growth

Despite rock-bottom unemployment numbers, wage growth is slowing. In January, it fell to 4.4% annually, down from a multi-decade high of 5.9% in March last year.

At the same time, wage growth falls below inflation by about 1%.

U.S. Wages and Inflation

Wage growth is carefully watched by the Federal Reserve. Typically, their annual wage growth target is 3.5% to be compatible with 2% inflation.

In the current environment, this wage growth trend serves as a double-edged sword. As wage growth slows, workers are less likely to see wages keep up with inflation. On the other hand, slower wage growth could help prevent inflation from rising in the first place—and interest rates from climbing higher.

Where is the Job Market Heading?

The question on everyone’s minds is whether today’s job market will stay resilient.

According to Fitch Ratings, slowing aggregate demand in response to higher interest rates will begin to weigh on the U.S. labor market, and the 517,000 new jobs created in January—three times the level expected by analysts— won’t last long.

Eventually, both higher borrowing costs and elevated compensation costs could weigh on corporate profits. On the other hand, the pandemic has changed the labor market. Relief legislation may continue to buoy the job market and workers may also remain scarce as people retire or leave for other reasons.

Given how unemployment serves as a lagging indicator, the material effects in the economy will likely appear before cracks begin to show in the U.S. labor market.

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Visualizing California’s GDP Compared to Countries

California’s GDP makes the state one of the most powerful economies in the world. This graphic compares it to the GDP of 10 select countries.

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How California's GDP exceeds ten select countries

How California's GDP exceeds ten select countries

California’s GDP Compared to Countries

Comedian Trevor Noah once said America is fifty little countries masquerading as one.

From an economic sense, this might carry some truth. When looking at the economic output of each state, especially the largest and wealthiest ones, they often compare to or even exceed the GDPs of entire nations.

To illustrate, this visual from StatsPanda looks at California’s $3.36 trillion GDP using data from The World Bank and compares it to 10 sizable country economies. Let’s take a closer look.

Sizing Up California’s GDP in 2021

California’s $3+ trillion GDP is an enormous figure in its own right, so it’s no surprise that it is larger than certain nations’ economic output.

But even when comparing with economies like Malaysia, Colombia, and Finland, all among the top 50 countries by GDP, California stands tall.

CountryGDP (2021 USD)
🇲🇾 Malaysia$372B
🇭🇰 Hong Kong$369B
🇻🇳 Vietnam$366B
🇮🇷 Iran$359B
🇵🇰 Pakistan$348B
🇨🇱 Chile$317B
🇨🇴 Colombia$314B
🇫🇮 Finland$297B
🇷🇴 Romania$284B
🇨🇿 Czechia$281B
Total$3,307B
California$3,357B

What’s more, these 10 countries are quite densely populated, with a combined population of 653 million compared to California’s 39 million total.

A Closer Look At California’s Economy

What makes California’s GDP so vast and their economy so powerful?

Relative population is a big factor, as the state is the most populous in the U.S. with roughly 12% of the country’s population calling it home. But since California’s GDP makes up over 15% of the country’s economic output, there must be something else at work.

One key driver is the technology sector. Not only does Silicon Valley generate massive amounts of technological output, this also translates directly to wealth and economic activity. Many tech markets follow winner-take-all dynamics, bringing large revenues back to the state. In addition, smaller technology companies are frequently gobbled up by larger competitors, adding wealth back into the mix through M&A.

This might partly explain why California’s GDP is actually estimated to overtake Germany’s in the coming years and become the world’s 4th largest economy.

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