Politics
Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts
Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts
BRICS is an association of five major countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Distinguished by their emerging economies, the group has sought to improve diplomatic coordination, reform global financial institutions, and ultimately serve as a counterbalance to Western hegemony.
On Aug. 24, 2023, BRICS announced that it would formally accept six new members at the start of 2024: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In this graphic, we provide a data-driven overview of how the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s influence and reach.
Share of Global GDP
Because most of the new BRICS members are considered to be developing economies, their addition to the group will not have a major impact on its overall share of GDP.
The following table includes GDP projections for 2023, courtesy of the IMF.
| Original BRICS Member | Country | GDP (USD billions) | Share of Global (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | $2,081 | 2.0% |
| Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | $2,063 | 2.0% |
| Yes | 🇮🇳 India | $3,737 | 3.6% |
| Yes | 🇨🇳 China | $19,374 | 18.4% |
| Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | $399 | 0.4% |
| No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | $1,062 | 1.0% |
| No | 🇮🇷 Iran | $368 | 0.4% |
| No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | $156 | 0.1% |
| No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | $387 | 0.4% |
| No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | $641 | 0.6% |
| No | 🇦🇪 UAE | $499 | 0.5% |
| - | BRICS Total | $30,767 | 29.3% |
| - | Rest of World | $74,362 | 70.7% |
The original six BRICS members are expected to have a combined GDP of $27.6 trillion in 2023, representing 26.3% of the global total. With the new members included, expected GDP climbs slightly to $30.8 trillion, enough for a 29.3% global share.
Share of Global Population
BRICS has always represented a major chunk of global population thanks to China and India, which are the only countries with over 1 billion people.
The two biggest populations being added to BRICS are Ethiopia (126.5 million) and Egypt (112.7 million). See the following table for population data from World Population Review, which is dated as of 2023.
| Original BRICS Member | Country | Population | Share of Global (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 216,422,446 | 2.7% |
| Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 144,444,359 | 1.8% |
| Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 1,428,627,663 | 17.8% |
| Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 1,425,671,352 | 17.7% |
| Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 60,414,495 | 0.8% |
| No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 36,947,025 | 0.5% |
| No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 89,172,767 | 1.1% |
| No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 126,527,060 | 1.6% |
| No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 112,716,598 | 1.4% |
| No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 45,773,884 | 0.6% |
| No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 9,516,871 | 0.1% |
| - | BRICS Total | 3.7 billion | 46.0% |
| - | Rest of World | 4.3 billion | 54.0% |
It’s possible that BRICS could eventually surpass 50% of global population, as many more countries have expressed their desire to join.
Share of Oil Production
Although the world is trying to move away from fossil fuels, the global oil market is still incredibly large—and BRICS is set to play a much bigger role in it. This is mostly due to the admission of Saudi Arabia, which alone accounts for 12.9% of global oil production.
Based on 2022 figures from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, BRICS’ share of oil production will grow from 20.4% to 43.1%.
| Original BRICS Member | Country | Thousand Barrels per Day | Share of Global (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 3,107 | 3.3% |
| Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 11,202 | 11.9% |
| Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 737 | 0.8% |
| Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 4,111 | 4.4% |
| Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0 | 0.0% |
| No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 12,136 | 12.9% |
| No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 3,822 | 4.1% |
| No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 0 | 0.0% |
| No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 613 | 0.7% |
| No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 706 | 0.8% |
| No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 4,020 | 4.3% |
| - | BRICS Total | 40,454 | 43.1% |
| - | Rest of World | 53,394 | 56.9% |
It’s worth noting that China has been pushing for oil trade to be denominated in yuan, and that Saudi Arabia’s acceptance into BRICS could bolster this ambition, potentially shifting the dynamics of global oil trade.
Share of Global Exports
The last metric included in our graphic is global exports, which is based on 2022 data from the World Trade Organization. We can see that the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s share of global exports (merchandise trade) to 25.1%, up from 20.2%.
| Original BRICS Member | Country | Exports (USD billions) | Share of Global (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 334 | 1.3% |
| Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 532 | 2.1% |
| Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 453 | 1.8% |
| Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 3,594 | 14.4% |
| Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 123 | 0.5% |
| No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 410 | 1.6% |
| No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 73 | 0.3% |
| No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 3.9 | 0.02% |
| No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 49 | 0.2% |
| No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 88 | 0.4% |
| No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 599 | 2.4% |
| - | BRICS Total | 6,259 | 25.1% |
| - | Rest of World | 18,646 | 74.9% |
Unsurprisingly, China is the world’s largest exporter. Major exporters that are not a part of BRICS include the U.S. (8.3%), Germany (6.6%), the Netherlands (3.9%), and Japan (3.0%).
Who Else Wants to Join?
According to Reuters, there are over 40 countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS. A smaller group of 16 countries have actually applied for membership, though, and this list includes Algeria, Cuba, Indonesia, Palestine, and Vietnam.
As the group grows in size, differing opinions and priorities among its members could create tensions in the future. For example, India and China have had numerous border disputes in recent years, while Brazil’s newly elected President has sought to “kickstart a new era of relations” with the U.S.
One thing that is certain, however, is that a new acronym for the group will be needed very soon.
Countries
Ranked: Share of Global Arms Exports in 2022
The U.S. is the biggest weapons exporter in the world, but which other countries take up a significant share of global arms exports in 2022? And how has that share changed over time?
Ranked: Share of Global Arms Exports 2018–2022
In 2022, global military budgets hit $2.2 trillion, an eighth consecutive year of increase.
Part of those budgets were used for the procurement of arms, but which countries are major weapons suppliers, and how do they influence the global arms trade?
We chart out the top 10 countries with the biggest share of global arms exports using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Which Country Exports the Most Weapons?
The U.S. is the biggest weapons exporter, accounting for 40% of the total volume of international arms transfers between 2018–2022. Nearly one-fifth of these exports headed to Saudi Arabia, and other significant amounts went to Japan (8.6%) and Australia (8.4%).
Below we rank the biggest weapons exporters by share of total volume traded in 2018–2022, as well as their growth or decline from trends recorded in 2013–2017.
| Rank | Country | % share of global arms exports (2018-2022) | % change between 2013-17 & 2018-22 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 40% | +14% |
| 2 | 🇷🇺 Russia | 16% | -31% |
| 3 | 🇫🇷 France | 11% | +44% |
| 4 | 🇨🇳 China | 5% | -23% |
| 5 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 4% | -35% |
| 6 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 4% | +45% |
| 7 | 🇬🇧 UK | 3% | -35% |
| 8 | 🇪🇸 Spain | 3% | -4% |
| 9 | 🇰🇷 South Korea | 2% | +74% |
| 10 | 🇮🇱 Israel | 2% | -15% |
| N/A | 🌐 Rest of World | 9% | N/A |
Russia (16%) and France (11%) rank close together, followed by China (5%) and Germany (4%) to round out the top five major arms exporters.
However France’s export volumes grown considerably (+44%) from the previous five-year period, thanks to big sales to India, which included 62 combat aircraft and four submarines, one-third of all French weapons trade. This has resulted in France leapfrogging the U.S. as India’s second-largest weapons supplier after Russia.
On the other hand, Russia’s exports by volume has decreased (-31%) even before sanctions kicked in after the invasion of Ukraine. Its biggest trade partners, India and China, have prioritized developing their own weapons industries.
South Korea’s Surging Weapons Exports
Another country whose arms sales are skyrocketing is South Korea, which ranks 9th in the overall share of global arms exports, but has seen a 74% increase in its export volumes. Key recipients include the Philippines, India, and Thailand.
South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol has pledged to grow his country into the world’s fourth largest arms exporter by 2027.
Interestingly, South Korea is one of three countries which is both a top-10 arms exporter and importer (along with China and the U.S.) as it has many takers for domestically produced military equipment, while simultaneously being reliant on American-produced long-range missiles and advanced combat aircraft.
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