Politics
Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts
Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts
BRICS is an association of five major countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Distinguished by their emerging economies, the group has sought to improve diplomatic coordination, reform global financial institutions, and ultimately serve as a counterbalance to Western hegemony.
On Aug. 24, 2023, BRICS announced that it would formally accept six new members at the start of 2024: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In this graphic, we provide a data-driven overview of how the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s influence and reach.
Share of Global GDP
Because most of the new BRICS members are considered to be developing economies, their addition to the group will not have a major impact on its overall share of GDP.
The following table includes GDP projections for 2023, courtesy of the IMF.
Original BRICS Member | Country | GDP (USD billions) | Share of Global (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | $2,081 | 2.0% |
Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | $2,063 | 2.0% |
Yes | 🇮🇳 India | $3,737 | 3.6% |
Yes | 🇨🇳 China | $19,374 | 18.4% |
Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | $399 | 0.4% |
No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | $1,062 | 1.0% |
No | 🇮🇷 Iran | $368 | 0.4% |
No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | $156 | 0.1% |
No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | $387 | 0.4% |
No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | $641 | 0.6% |
No | 🇦🇪 UAE | $499 | 0.5% |
- | BRICS Total | $30,767 | 29.3% |
- | Rest of World | $74,362 | 70.7% |
The original six BRICS members are expected to have a combined GDP of $27.6 trillion in 2023, representing 26.3% of the global total. With the new members included, expected GDP climbs slightly to $30.8 trillion, enough for a 29.3% global share.
Share of Global Population
BRICS has always represented a major chunk of global population thanks to China and India, which are the only countries with over 1 billion people.
The two biggest populations being added to BRICS are Ethiopia (126.5 million) and Egypt (112.7 million). See the following table for population data from World Population Review, which is dated as of 2023.
Original BRICS Member | Country | Population | Share of Global (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 216,422,446 | 2.7% |
Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 144,444,359 | 1.8% |
Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 1,428,627,663 | 17.8% |
Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 1,425,671,352 | 17.7% |
Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 60,414,495 | 0.8% |
No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 36,947,025 | 0.5% |
No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 89,172,767 | 1.1% |
No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 126,527,060 | 1.6% |
No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 112,716,598 | 1.4% |
No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 45,773,884 | 0.6% |
No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 9,516,871 | 0.1% |
- | BRICS Total | 3.7 billion | 46.0% |
- | Rest of World | 4.3 billion | 54.0% |
It’s possible that BRICS could eventually surpass 50% of global population, as many more countries have expressed their desire to join.
Share of Oil Production
Although the world is trying to move away from fossil fuels, the global oil market is still incredibly large—and BRICS is set to play a much bigger role in it. This is mostly due to the admission of Saudi Arabia, which alone accounts for 12.9% of global oil production.
Based on 2022 figures from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, BRICS’ share of oil production will grow from 20.4% to 43.1%.
Original BRICS Member | Country | Thousand Barrels per Day | Share of Global (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 3,107 | 3.3% |
Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 11,202 | 11.9% |
Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 737 | 0.8% |
Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 4,111 | 4.4% |
Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0 | 0.0% |
No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 12,136 | 12.9% |
No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 3,822 | 4.1% |
No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 0 | 0.0% |
No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 613 | 0.7% |
No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 706 | 0.8% |
No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 4,020 | 4.3% |
- | BRICS Total | 40,454 | 43.1% |
- | Rest of World | 53,394 | 56.9% |
It’s worth noting that China has been pushing for oil trade to be denominated in yuan, and that Saudi Arabia’s acceptance into BRICS could bolster this ambition, potentially shifting the dynamics of global oil trade.
Share of Global Exports
The last metric included in our graphic is global exports, which is based on 2022 data from the World Trade Organization. We can see that the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s share of global exports (merchandise trade) to 25.1%, up from 20.2%.
Original BRICS Member | Country | Exports (USD billions) | Share of Global (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 334 | 1.3% |
Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 532 | 2.1% |
Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 453 | 1.8% |
Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 3,594 | 14.4% |
Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 123 | 0.5% |
No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 410 | 1.6% |
No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 73 | 0.3% |
No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 3.9 | 0.02% |
No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 49 | 0.2% |
No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 88 | 0.4% |
No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 599 | 2.4% |
- | BRICS Total | 6,259 | 25.1% |
- | Rest of World | 18,646 | 74.9% |
Unsurprisingly, China is the world’s largest exporter. Major exporters that are not a part of BRICS include the U.S. (8.3%), Germany (6.6%), the Netherlands (3.9%), and Japan (3.0%).
Who Else Wants to Join?
According to Reuters, there are over 40 countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS. A smaller group of 16 countries have actually applied for membership, though, and this list includes Algeria, Cuba, Indonesia, Palestine, and Vietnam.
As the group grows in size, differing opinions and priorities among its members could create tensions in the future. For example, India and China have had numerous border disputes in recent years, while Brazil’s newly elected President has sought to “kickstart a new era of relations” with the U.S.
One thing that is certain, however, is that a new acronym for the group will be needed very soon.
Economy
The Bloc Effect: International Trade with Geopolitical Allies on the Rise
Rising geopolitical tensions are shaping the future of international trade, but what is the effect on trading among G7 and BRICS countries?
The Bloc Effect: International Trade with Allies on the Rise
International trade has become increasingly fragmented over the last five years as countries have shifted to trading more with their geopolitical allies.
This graphic from The Hinrich Foundation, the first in a three-part series covering the future of trade, provides visual context to the growing divide in trade in G7 and pre-expansion BRICS countries, which are used as proxies for geopolitical blocs.
Trade Shifts in G7 and BRICS Countries
This analysis uses IMF data to examine differences in shares of exports within and between trading blocs from 2018 to 2023. For example, we looked at the percentage of China’s exports with other BRICS members as well as with G7 members to see how these proportions shifted in percentage points (pp) over time.
Countries traded nearly $270 billion more with allies in 2023 compared to 2018. This shift came at the expense of trade with rival blocs, which saw a decline of $314 billion.
Country Change in Exports Within Bloc (pp) Change in Exports With Other Bloc (pp)
🇮🇳 India 0.0 3.9
🇷🇺 Russia 0.7 -3.8
🇮🇹 Italy 0.8 -0.7
🇨🇦 Canada 0.9 -0.7
🇫🇷 France 1.0 -1.1
🇪🇺 EU 1.1 -1.5
🇩🇪 Germany 1.4 -2.1
🇿🇦 South Africa 1.5 1.5
🇺🇸 U.S. 1.6 -0.4
🇯🇵 Japan 2.0 -1.7
🇨🇳 China 2.1 -5.2
🇧🇷 Brazil 3.7 -3.3
🇬🇧 UK 10.2 0.5
All shifts reported are in percentage points. For example, the EU saw its share of exports to G7 countries rise from 74.3% in 2018 to 75.4% in 2023, which equates to a 1.1 percentage point increase.
The UK saw the largest uptick in trading with other countries within the G7 (+10.2 percentage points), namely the EU, as the post-Brexit trade slump to the region recovered.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute caused China’s share of exports to the G7 to fall by 5.2 percentage points from 2018 to 2023, the largest decline in our sample set. In fact, partly as a result of the conflict, the U.S. has by far the highest number of harmful tariffs in place.
The Russia-Ukraine War and ensuing sanctions by the West contributed to Russia’s share of exports to the G7 falling by 3.8 percentage points over the same timeframe.
India, South Africa, and the UK bucked the trend and continued to witness advances in exports with the opposing bloc.
Average Trade Shifts of G7 and BRICS Blocs
Though results varied significantly on a country-by-country basis, the broader trend towards favoring geopolitical allies in international trade is clear.
Bloc Change in Exports Within Bloc (pp) Change in Exports With Other Bloc (pp)
Average 2.1 -1.1
BRICS 1.6 -1.4
G7 incl. EU 2.4 -1.0
Overall, BRICS countries saw a larger shift away from exports with the other bloc, while for G7 countries the shift within their own bloc was more pronounced. This implies that though BRICS countries are trading less with the G7, they are relying more on trade partners outside their bloc to make up for the lost G7 share.
A Global Shift in International Trade and Geopolitical Proximity
The movement towards strengthening trade relations based on geopolitical proximity is a global trend.
The United Nations categorizes countries along a scale of geopolitical proximity based on UN voting records.
According to the organization’s analysis, international trade between geopolitically close countries rose from the first quarter of 2022 (when Russia first invaded Ukraine) to the third quarter of 2023 by over 6%. Conversely, trade with geopolitically distant countries declined.
The second piece in this series will explore China’s gradual move away from using the U.S. dollar in trade settlements.
Visit the Hinrich Foundation to learn more about the future of geopolitical trade
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