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Who are the Dividend Aristocrats in 2021?

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The Dividend Aristocrats in 2021

Legendary investor George Soros once said, “Good investing should be boring”. But an increase in volatile themes today suggests this maxim has gone ignored by at least some market participants.

From a high level, we can view investments on a spectrum. Volatile assets like cryptocurrencies and SPACs are more on the exciting side of things. The boring side is likely where Dividend Aristocrat stocks lie.

The data above, from Sure Dividend, looks at all 65 Dividend Aristocrats, ranking them by their yield, sector, and years of growth.

What are Dividend Aristocrats?

The U.S. Dividend Aristocrats are a basket of 65 stocks in the S&P 500 index. These companies have been growing their dividend per share consecutively, for a minimum of 25 years.

This is easier said than done, since companies often distribute dividends quarterly. To pay and grow a dividend in the long run implies a business model that can withstand varying economic environments, including setbacks like market crashes.

Though dividend stocks may not carry the same excitement as other investments, studies show that dividends represent over 50% of total S&P 500 market returns.

CompanyDividend YieldYears Dividend GrownSector
AT&T, Inc.6.9%36Communication Services
Exxon Mobil Corp.6.1%38Energy
Chevron Corp.5.1%33Energy
International Business Machines Corp.4.9%25Technology
Abbvie Inc4.8%49Healthcare
Realty Income Corp.4.2%26Real Estate
People`s United Financial Inc4.1%28Financial Services
Federal Realty Investment Trust4.0%53Real Estate
Consolidated Edison, Inc.4.0%47Utilities
Amcor Plc3.9%36Consumer Cyclical
Franklin Resources, Inc.3.7%41Financial Services
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc3.5%45Healthcare
Leggett & Platt, Inc.3.3%47Consumer Cyclical
Kimberly-Clark Corp.3.3%49Consumer Defensive
Cardinal Health, Inc.3.2%33Healthcare
Coca-Cola Co3.1%58Consumer Defensive
PepsiCo Inc3.0%49Consumer Defensive
3M Co.3.0%62Industrials
Essex Property Trust, Inc.2.9%26Real Estate
Genuine Parts Co.2.7%65Consumer Cyclical
General Dynamics Corp.2.6%28Industrials
Procter & Gamble Co.2.5%64Consumer Defensive
Johnson & Johnson2.5%58Healthcare
Archer Daniels Midland Co.2.5%46Consumer Defensive
Aflac Inc.2.5%39Financial Services
Atmos Energy Corp.2.5%37Utilities
Cincinnati Financial Corp.2.4%60Financial Services
Clorox Co.2.3%43Consumer Defensive
VF Corp.2.3%48Consumer Cyclical
Sysco Corp.2.2%51Consumer Defensive
Colgate-Palmolive Co.2.2%57Consumer Defensive
McDonald`s Corp2.2%45Consumer Cyclical
Emerson Electric Co.2.2%64Industrials
Hormel Foods Corp.2.1%55Consumer Defensive
Air Products & Chemicals Inc.2.1%39Basic Materials
Nucor Corp.2.0%47Basic Materials
Illinois Tool Works, Inc.2.0%46Industrials
T. Rowe Price Group Inc.2.0%34Financial Services
Chubb Limited2.0%27Financial Services
Automatic Data Processing Inc.1.9%46Industrials
NextEra Energy Inc1.9%25Utilities
Medtronic Plc1.8%43Healthcare
Caterpillar Inc.1.8%26Industrials
Walmart Inc1.6%48Consumer Defensive
McCormick & Co., Inc.1.5%34Consumer Defensive
A.O. Smith Corp.1.5%27Industrials
W.W. Grainger Inc.1.5%49Industrials
Linde Plc1.5%28Basic Materials
Abbott Laboratories1.4%49Healthcare
Dover Corp.1.4%65Industrials
Stanley Black & Decker Inc1.4%53Industrials
Target Corp1.3%53Consumer Defensive
PPG Industries, Inc.1.3%49Basic Materials
Becton, Dickinson And Co.1.3%49Healthcare
Pentair plc1.3%44Industrials
Lowe`s Cos., Inc.1.2%57Consumer Cyclical
Albemarle Corp.1.0%26Basic Materials
Brown-Forman Corp.1.0%31Consumer Defensive
Expeditors International Of Washington, Inc.1.0%26Industrials
Ecolab, Inc.0.9%35Basic Materials
Cintas Corporation0.9%38Industrials
Sherwin-Williams Co.0.8%42Basic Materials
S&P Global Inc0.8%48Financial Services
Roper Technologies Inc0.5%28Industrials
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.0.2%27Healthcare

Numerous companies on this list have brand value that stretches all over the globe—including the likes of McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Walmart.

Vast global recognition and branding power is in part why these companies can generate cash flows to pay dividends for decades on end. For instance, 94% of the world population recognizes Coca-Cola’s logo.

Zooming In

Divident Aristocrats Sector Analysis Supplemental 2

The 65 Dividend Aristocrat stocks break down into 11 sectors. Across sectors, Industrials is the most crowded, consisting of 14 companies, with an average yield of 1.6% and a dividend growth duration of 43 years. Popular stocks in this sector include 3M and Caterpillar.

Next is the Consumer Defensive sector, containing 13 companies like Clorox, Target, Pepsi, and Procter & Gamble. The average yield is 2.2%, with an average growing duration of 49 years.

The highest yield by sector belongs to Energy, at 5.5%, but is only made up of only Chevron and Exxon Mobil. Their dividend track record may falter in the years to come, due to transitions away from the oil business. Just last year, Big Oil firms reported record net income losses, and Exxon was booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

The Consumer Cyclical sector has been increasing their dividend for an average of 50 years, the longest of any sector. Lowe’s and McDonald’s are involved in this category.

Businesses for Today and Tomorrow

Although the Dividend Aristocrats list is published every year, the companies on the list are a stable bunch, meaning changes are fairly infrequent.

In a market climate in part shaped by low rates and compressed yields in the fixed income space, Dividend Aristocrats might be a particularly attractive alternative for investors with a longer-term outlook.

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Visualizing 90 Years of Stock and Bond Portfolio Performance

How have investment returns for different portfolio allocations of stocks and bonds compared over the last 90 years?

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Asset Allocation

Visualizing 90 Years of Stock and Bond Portfolio Performance

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem.

Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period.

To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.

How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?

Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:

Stock / Bond
Portfolio Allocation
Best Annual ReturnWorst Annual ReturnAverage Annual Return
0% / 100% 32.6%-8.1%5.3%
10% / 90% 31.2%-8.2%6.0%
20% / 80%29.8%-10.1%6.6%
30% / 70%28.4%-14.2%7.2%
40% / 60%27.9%-18.4%7.8%
50% / 50%32.3%-22.5%8.3%
60% / 40%36.7%-26.6%8.8%
70% / 30%41.1%-30.7%9.2%
80% / 20%45.4%-34.9%9.6%
90% / 10%49.8%-39.0%10.0%
100% / 0%54.2%-43.1%10.3%

We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.

A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.

Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.

A Closer Look at Historical Correlations

To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:

The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions.

Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments.

Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices.

On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.

Current Investment Returns in Context

Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in.

For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course.

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