Visualizing the 700-Year Decline of Interest Rates
How far can interest rates fall?
Currently, many sovereign rates sit in negative territory, and there is an unprecedented $10 trillion in negative-yielding debt. This new interest rate climate has many observers wondering where the bottom truly lies.
Today’s graphic from Paul Schmelzing, visiting scholar at the Bank of England (BOE), shows how global real interest rates have experienced an average annual decline of -0.0196% (-1.96 basis points) throughout the past eight centuries.
The Evidence on Falling Rates
Collecting data from across 78% of total advanced economy GDP over the time frame, Schmelzing shows that real rates* have witnessed a negative historical slope spanning back to the 1300s.
Displayed across the graph is a series of personal nominal loans made to sovereign establishments, along with their nominal loan rates. Some from the 14th century, for example, had nominal rates of 35%. By contrast, key nominal loan rates had fallen to 6% by the mid 1800s.
Centennial Averages of Real Long-Term “Safe-Asset”† Rates From 1311-2018
*Real rates take inflation into account, and are calculated as follows: nominal rate – inflation = real rate.
†Safe assets are issued from global financial powers
Starting in 1311, data from the report shows how average real rates moved from 5.1% in the 1300s down to an average of 2% in the 1900s.
The average real rate between 2000-2018 stands at 1.3%.
Why have interest rates been trending downward for so long?
Here are the three prevailing theories as to why they’re dropping:
1. Productivity Growth
Since 1970, productivity growth has slowed. A nation’s productive capacity is determined by a number of factors, including labor force participation and economic output.
If total economic output shrinks, real rates will decline too, theory suggests. Lower productivity growth leads to lower wage growth expectations.
In addition, lower productivity growth means less business investment, therefore a lower demand for capital. This in turn causes the lower interest rates.
Demographics impact interest rates on a number of levels. The aging population—paired with declining fertility levels—result in higher savings rates, longer life expectancies, and lower labor force participation rates.
In the U.S., baby boomers are retiring at a pace of 10,000 people per day, and other advanced economies are also seeing comparable growth in retirees. Theory suggests that this creates downward pressure on real interest rates, as the number of people in the workforce declines.
3. Economic Growth
Dampened economic growth can also have a negative impact on future earnings, pushing down the real interest rate in the process. Since 1961, GDP growth among OECD countries has dropped from 4.3% to 3% in 2018.
Larry Summers referred to this sloping trend since the 1970s as “secular stagnation” during an International Monetary Fund conference in 2013.
Secular stagnation occurs when the economy is faced with persistently lagging economic health. One possible way to address a declining interest rate conundrum, Summers has suggested, is through expansionary government spending.
Bond Yields Declining
According to the report, another trend has coincided with falling interest rates: declining bond yields.
Since the 1300s, global nominal bonds yields have dropped from over 14% to around 2%.
The graph illustrates how real interest rates and bond yields appear to slope across a similar trend line. While it may seem remarkable that interest rates keep falling, this phenomenon shows that a broader trend may be occurring—across centuries, asset classes, and fiscal regimes.
In fact, the historical record would imply that we will see ever new record lows in real rates in future business cycles in the 2020s/30s
Although this may be fortunate for debt-seekers, it can create challenges for fixed income investors—who may seek alternatives strategies with higher yield potential instead.
The Best Selling Vehicles in America, By State
From Fords in the Midwest to Toyotas on the coasts, here are the best selling vehicles in America, visualized by state.
The Best Selling Vehicles in America, By State
From Ford trucks in the Midwest to Toyotas on the coasts, the best selling vehicles in America reveal a lot about the country.
Compared to other countries with fewer highways or narrower roads, the U.S. is very much a truck-friendly country. Across the U.S., the most sold vehicle in 2019 was the Ford F-Series of trucks, primarily the F-150.
As the home of the world’s pioneer automotive manufacturers, including Ford and GM, consumers primarily purchase local brands. But that hasn’t stopped Toyota, the largest foreign manufacturer in the world, from also gaining a foothold.
This graphic uses 2020 sales data from automotive information resource Edmunds.com, breaking down the best selling vehicles in each state through new vehicle retail registration.
What Are the Best Selling Vehicles in Each State?
Despite a slowdown in vehicle sales due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a global chip shortage, Americans still bought plenty of trucks last year.
In fact, 48 out of the 50 states had a truck or SUV as the top selling vehicle in 2020—and most states actually had trucks taking all of the top three spots. The only two with a car topping the leaderboard were California and Florida.
|Top Selling Vehicle By State (2020)||#1||#2||#3|
|Alabama||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||Toyota Camry|
|Alaska||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Arizona||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Arkansas||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado|
|California||Honda Civic||Toyota RAV4||Toyota Camry|
|Colorado||Ford F-Series||Ram 1500-3500||Toyota RAV4|
|Connecticut||Honda CR-V||Toyota RAV4||Subaru Forester|
|D.C.||Toyota RAV4||Honda CR-V||Subaru Forester|
|Delaware||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Florida||Toyota Corolla||Ford F-Series||Toyota RAV4|
|Georgia||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Hawaii||Toyota Tacoma||Toyota 4Runner||Toyota RAV4|
|Idaho||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Illinois||Ford F-Series||Honda CR-V||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Indiana||Chevrolet Silverado||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Equinox|
|Iowa||Chevrolet Silverado||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500|
|Kansas||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Kentucky||Chevrolet Silverado||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500|
|Louisiana||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Maine||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Maryland||Toyota RAV4||Ford F-Series||Honda CR-V|
|Massachusetts||Toyota RAV4||Honda CR-V||Ford F-Series|
|Michigan||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Equinox||RAM 1500-3500|
|Minnesota||Chevrolet Silverado||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500|
|Mississippi||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Missouri||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Montana||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Nebraska||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Nevada||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Toyota RAV4|
|New Hampshire||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||Toyota RAV4|
|New Jersey||Honda CR-V||Honda Civic||Toyota RAV4|
|New Mexico||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|New York||Honda CR-V||Toyota RAV4||Jeep Cherokee|
|North Carolina||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|North Dakota||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Ohio||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Oklahoma||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Oregon||Toyota RAV4||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500|
|Pennsylvania||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Honda CR-V|
|Puerto Rico||Toyota RAV4||Toyota Yaris||Toyota Corolla|
|Rhode Island||Toyota RAV4||Honda CR-V||Ford F-Series|
|South Carolina||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|South Dakota||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Tennessee||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Texas||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Utah||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Vermont||Ford F-Series||Toyota RAV4||RAM 1500-3500|
|Virginia||Ford F-Series||Toyota RAV4||Honda CR-V|
|Washington||Toyota RAV4||Ford F-Series||Ram 1500-3500|
|West Virginia||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||Ram 1500-3500|
|Wisconsin||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||Ram 1500-3500|
|Wyoming||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado|
The Ford F-Series was the clear leader in sales, primarily in the Midwest. With a top-selling spot in 60% of U.S. states, the F-Series was the best selling vehicle in America.
Combined with the Chevrolet Silverado and Ram 1500-3500 series, the big three American truck brands accounted for 73% of the top three selling vehicles across all American states and territories.
Japanese Automakers in the Mix
Though American manufacturers had the best selling cars in most states, they had some overseas competition.
Japanese manufacturers Toyota and Honda had the top-selling vehicle in 11 states (and D.C.). They primarily captured car sales along the coastlines, including in California, Florida, New York and Washington, some of the most populated states in the country.
|America's Best Selling Vehicles (2020)||Type||# Times in Top 3|
Despite many cars being available for sale in the U.S., only seven manufacturers made the top-selling vehicles list in 2020.
With the full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic yet to be reflected in the sales, and electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla on the rise, how will the best selling vehicles in America evolve?
Ranked: Big Tech CEO Insider Trading During the First Half of 2021
Big Tech is worth trillions, but what are insiders doing with their stock? We breakdown Big Tech CEO insider trading during the first half of 2021.
Big Tech CEO Insider Trading During The First Half of 2021
When CEOs of major companies are selling their shares, investors can’t help but notice.
After all, these decisions have a direct effect on the personal wealth of these insiders, which can say plenty about their convictions with respect to the future direction of the companies they run.
Considering that Big Tech stocks are some of the most popular holdings in today’s portfolios, and are backed by a collective $5.3 trillion in institutional investment, how do the CEOs of these organizations rank by their insider selling?
|CEO||Stock||Shares Sold H1 2021||Value of Shares ($M)|
|Jeff Bezos||Amazon (AMZN)||2.0 million||$6,600|
|Mark Zuckerberg||Facebook (FB)||7.1 million||$2,200
|Satya Nadella||Microsoft (MSFT)||278,694||$65|
|Sundar Pichai||Google (GOOGL)||27,000||$62|
|Tim Cook||Apple (AAPL)||0||$0|
Breaking Down Insider Trading, by CEO
Let’s dive into the insider trading activity of each Big Tech CEO:
During the first half of 2021, Jeff Bezos sold 2 million shares of Amazon worth $6.6 billion.
This activity was spread across 15 different transactions, representing an average of $440 million per transaction. Altogether, this ranks him first by CEO insider selling, by total dollar proceeds. Bezos’s time as CEO of Amazon came to an end shortly after the half way mark for the year.
In second place is Mark Zuckerberg, who has been significantly busier selling than the rest.
In the first half of 2021, he unloaded 7.1 million shares of Facebook onto the open market, worth $2.2 billion. What makes these transactions interesting is the sheer quantity of them, as he sold on 136 out of 180 days. On average, that’s $12 million worth of stock sold every day.
Zuckerberg’s record year of selling in 2018 resulted in over $5 billion worth of stock sold, but over 90% of his net worth still remains in the company.
Next is Satya Nadella, who sold 278,694 shares of Microsoft, worth $234 million. Despite this, the Microsoft CEO still holds an estimated 1.6 million shares, which is the largest of any insider.
Microsoft’s stock has been on a tear for a number of years now, and belongs to an elite trillion dollar club, which consists of only six public companies.
Fourth on the list is Sundar Pichai who has been at the helm at Google for six years now. Since the start of 2021, he’s sold 27,000 shares through nine separate transactions, worth $62.5 million. However, Pichai still has an estimated 6,407 Class A and 114,861 Class C shares.
Google is closing in on a $2 trillion valuation and is the best performing Big Tech stock, with shares rising 60% year-to-date. Their market share growth from U.S. ad revenues is a large contributing factor.
Last, is Tim Cook, who just surpassed a decade as Apple CEO.
During this time, shares have rallied over 1,000% and annual sales have gone from $100 billion to $347 billion. That said, Cook has sold 0 shares of Apple during the first half of 2021. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t sold shares elsewhere, though. Cook also sits on the board of directors for Nike, and has sold $6.9 million worth of shares this year.
Measuring Insider Selling
All things equal, it’s desirable for management to have skin in the game, and be invested alongside shareholders. It can also be seen as aligning long-term interests.
A good measure of insider selling activity is in relation to the existing stake in the company. For example, selling $6.6 billion worth of shares may sound like a lot, but when there are 51.7 million Amazon shares remaining for Jeff Bezos, it actually represents a small portion and is probably not cause for panic.
If, however, executives are disclosing large transactions relative to their total stakes, it might be worth digging deeper.
Green3 weeks ago
The World’s 25 Largest Lakes, Side by Side
Economy2 weeks ago
The 20 Fastest Growing Jobs in the Next Decade
Misc2 weeks ago
All World Languages in One Visualization
Markets1 week ago
Mapping The Biggest Companies By Market Cap in 60 Countries
Misc3 weeks ago
Razor Thin: A New Perspective on Earth’s Atmosphere
Healthcare1 week ago
Visualizing the World’s Biggest Pharmaceutical Companies
Misc3 weeks ago
9/11 Timeline: Three Hours That Changed Everything
Datastream4 weeks ago
Ranked: The World’s Fastest Growing Brands in 2021