Central Banks

The History of Interest Rates Over 670 Years

Published

4 weeks ago

November 15, 2019

Nicholas LePan

History of Interest Rates

The History of Interest Rates Over 670 Years

Today, we live in a low-interest-rate environment, where the cost of borrowing for governments and institutions is lower than the historical average. It is easy to see that interest rates are at generational lows, but did you know that they are also at 670-year lows?

This week’s chart outlines the interest rates attached to loans dating back to the 1350s. Take a look at the diminishing history of the cost of debt—money has never been cheaper for governments to borrow than it is today.

The Birth of an Investing Class

Trade brought many good ideas to Europe, while helping spur the Renaissance and the development of the money economy.

Key European ports and trading nations, such as the Republic of Genoa or the Netherlands during the Renaissance period, help provide a good indication of the cost of borrowing in the early history of interest rates.

The Republic of Genoa: 4-5 year Lending Rate

Genoa became a junior associate of the Spanish Empire, with Genovese bankers financing many of the Spanish crown’s foreign endeavors.

Genovese bankers provided the Spanish royal family with credit and regular income. The Spanish crown also converted unreliable shipments of New World silver into capital for further ventures through bankers in Genoa.

Dutch Perpetual Bonds

A perpetual bond is a bond with no maturity date. Investors can treat this type of bond as an equity, not as debt. Issuers pay a coupon on perpetual bonds forever, and do not have to redeem the principal—much like the dividend from a blue-chip company.

By 1640, there was so much confidence in Holland’s public debt, that it made the refinancing of outstanding debt with a much lower interest rate of 5% possible.

Dutch provincial and municipal borrowers issued three types of debt:

Promissory notes (Obligatiën): Short-term debt, in the form of bearer bonds, that was readily negotiable
Redeemable bonds (Losrenten): Paid an annual interest to the holder, whose name appeared in a public-debt ledger until the loan was paid off
Life annuities (Lijfrenten): Paid interest during the life of the buyer, where death cancels the principal

Unlike other countries where private bankers issued public debt, Holland dealt directly with prospective bondholders. They issued many bonds of small coupons that attracted small savers, like craftsmen and often women.

Rule Britannia: British Consols

In 1752, the British government converted all its outstanding debt into one bond, the Consolidated 3.5% Annuities, in order to reduce the interest rate it paid. Five years later, the annual interest rate on the stock dropped to 3%, adjusting the stock as Consolidated 3% Annuities.

The coupon rate remained at 3% until 1888, when the finance minister converted the Consolidated 3% Annuities, along with Reduced 3% Annuities (1752) and New 3% Annuities (1855), into a new bond─the 2.75% Consolidated Stock. The interest rate was further reduced to 2.5% in 1903.

Interest rates briefly went back up in 1927 when Winston Churchill issued a new government stock, the 4% Consols, as a partial refinancing of WWI war bonds.

American Ascendancy: The U.S. Treasury Notes

The United States Congress passed an act in 1870 authorizing three separate consol issues with redemption privileges after 10, 15, and 30 years. This was the beginning of what became known as Treasury Bills, the modern benchmark for interest rates.

The Great Inflation of the 1970s

In the 1970s, the global stock market was a mess. Over an 18-month period, the market lost 40% of its value. For close to a decade, few people wanted to invest in public markets. Economic growth was weak, resulting in double-digit unemployment rates.

The low interest policies of the Federal Reserve in the early ‘70s encouraged full employment, but also caused high inflation. Under new leadership, the central bank would later reverse its policies, raising interest rates to 20% in an effort to reset capitalism and encourage investment.

Looking Forward: Cheap Money

Since then, interest rates set by government debt have been rapidly declining, while the global economy has rapidly expanded. Further, financial crises have driven interest rates to just above zero in order to spur spending and investment.

It is clear that the arc of lending bends towards ever-decreasing interest rates, but how low can they go?

Related Topics:debt Finance history interest rates

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$69 Trillion of World Debt in One Infographic

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Central Banks

$69 Trillion of World Debt in One Infographic

What share of government world debt does each country owe? See it all broken down in this stunning visualization.

Published

4 weeks ago

November 14, 2019

Jeff Desjardins

$69 Trillion of World Debt in One Infographic

Two decades ago, total government debt was estimated to sit at $20 trillion.

Since then, according to the latest figures by the IMF, the number has ballooned to $69.3 trillion with a debt to GDP ratio of 82% — the highest totals in human history.

Which countries owe the most money, and how do these figures compare?

The Regional Breakdown

Let’s start by looking at the continental level, to get an idea of how world debt is divided from a geographical perspective:

Region	Debt to GDP	Gross Debt (Millions of USD)	% of Total World Debt
World	81.8%	$69,298	100.0%
Asia and Pacific	79.8%	$24,120	34.8%
North America	100.4%	$23,710	34.2%
Europe	74.2%	$16,225	23.4%
South America	75.0%	$2,699	3.9%
Africa	56.9%	$1,313	1.9%
Other	37.1%	$1,231	1.8%

In absolute terms, over 90% of global debt is concentrated in North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe — meanwhile, regions like Africa, South America, and other account for less than 10%.

This is not surprising, since advanced economies hold most of the world’s debt (about 75.4%), while emerging or developing economies hold the rest.

World Debt by Country

Now let’s look at individual countries, according to data released by the IMF in October 2019.

It’s worth mentioning that the following numbers are representative of 2018 data, and that for a tiny subset of countries (i.e. Syria) we used the latest available numbers as an estimate.

Rank	Country	Debt to GDP	Gross Debt ($B)	% of World Total
#1	🇺🇸 United States	104.3%	$21,465	31.0%
#2	🇯🇵 Japan	237.1%	$11,788	17.0%
#3	🇨🇳 China, People's Republic of	50.6%	$6,764	9.8%
#4	🇮🇹 Italy	132.2%	$2,744	4.0%
#5	🇫🇷 France	98.4%	$2,736	3.9%
#6	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	86.8%	$2,455	3.5%
#7	🇩🇪 Germany	61.7%	$2,438	3.5%
#8	🇮🇳 India	68.1%	$1,851	2.7%
#9	🇧🇷 Brazil	87.9%	$1,642	2.4%
#10	🇨🇦 Canada	89.9%	$1,540	2.2%
#11	🇪🇸 Spain	97.1%	$1,386	2.0%
#12	🇲🇽 Mexico	53.6%	$655	0.9%
#13	🇰🇷 Korea, Republic of	37.9%	$652	0.9%
#14	🇦🇺 Australia	41.4%	$588	0.8%
#15	🇧🇪 Belgium	102.0%	$543	0.8%
#16	Netherlands	52.4%	$479	0.7%
#17	Argentina	86.1%	$447	0.6%
#18	Singapore	113.6%	$414	0.6%
#19	Greece	184.9%	$404	0.6%
#20	Austria	73.8%	$337	0.5%
#21	Indonesia	30.1%	$308	0.4%
#22	Portugal	120.1%	$289	0.4%
#23	Poland	48.9%	$286	0.4%
#24	Switzerland	40.5%	$286	0.4%
#25	Ireland	63.7%	$244	0.4%
#26	Russian Federation	14.6%	$242	0.3%
#27	Turkey	30.2%	$233	0.3%
#28	Egypt	92.7%	$231	0.3%
#29	Pakistan	71.7%	$226	0.3%
#30	Israel	60.8%	$225	0.3%
#31	Sweden	38.5%	$214	0.3%
#32	Thailand	42.1%	$213	0.3%
#33	South Africa	56.7%	$209	0.3%
#34	Taiwan Province of China	35.1%	$207	0.3%
#35	Malaysia	55.6%	$199	0.3%
#36	Venezuela	182.4%	$180	0.3%
#37	Norway	40.0%	$174	0.3%
#38	Colombia	52.2%	$173	0.2%
#39	Finland	59.3%	$163	0.2%
#40	Saudi Arabia	19.0%	$149	0.2%
#41	Iran	32.2%	$144	0.2%
#42	Vietnam	55.6%	$134	0.2%
#43	Philippines	38.9%	$129	0.2%
#44	Denmark	34.3%	$121	0.2%
#45	Hungary	70.8%	$114	0.2%
#46	Iraq	49.3%	$111	0.2%
#47	Nigeria	27.3%	$109	0.2%
#48	Bangladesh	34.0%	$98.1	0.14%
#49	Angola	89.0%	$94.3	0.14%
#50	Qatar	48.6%	$93.0	0.13%
#51	Romania	36.7%	$87.9	0.13%
#52	Lebanon	151.0%	$85.1	0.12%
#53	Czech Republic	32.6%	$79.9	0.12%
#54	United Arab Emirates	19.1%	$79.1	0.11%
#55	Ukraine	60.2%	$78.8	0.11%
#56	Morocco	65.0%	$77.0	0.11%
#57	Chile	25.6%	$76.3	0.11%
#58	Sri Lanka	83.3%	$74.1	0.11%
#59	Sudan	212.1%	$72.7	0.10%
#60	Algeria	38.3%	$66.5	0.10%
#61	New Zealand	29.8%	$60.5	0.09%
#62	Peru	26.1%	$58.8	0.08%
#63	Puerto Rico	55.5%	$56.1	0.08%
#64	Kenya	60.1%	$52.8	0.08%
#65	Slovak Republic	48.9%	$52.1	0.08%
#66	Ecuador	45.8%	$49.6	0.07%
#67	Ethiopia	61.0%	$49.0	0.07%
#68	Croatia	74.6%	$45.4	0.07%
#69	Dominican Republic	50.5%	$43.2	0.06%
#70	Oman	53.4%	$42.3	0.06%
#71	Jordan	94.4%	$39.9	0.06%
#72	Ghana	59.3%	$38.9	0.06%
#73	Slovenia	70.4%	$38.1	0.05%
#74	Uruguay	63.5%	$37.9	0.05%
#75	Kazakhstan	21.0%	$36.3	0.05%
#76	Bahrain	94.7%	$35.7	0.05%
#77	Costa Rica	53.5%	$32.3	0.05%
#78	Tunisia	77.0%	$30.7	0.04%
#79	Belarus	47.8%	$28.5	0.04%
#80	Serbia	54.5%	$27.5	0.04%
#81	Myanmar	38.2%	$26.2	0.04%
#82	Panama	39.5%	$25.7	0.04%
#83	Cyprus	102.5%	$25.1	0.04%
#84	Côte d'Ivoire	53.2%	$22.9	0.03%
#85	Bolivia	53.8%	$21.8	0.03%
#86	Tanzania	37.3%	$21.2	0.03%
#87	Zambia	78.1%	$20.9	0.03%
#88	Kuwait	14.7%	$20.8	0.03%
#89	Guatemala	24.7%	$19.4	0.03%
#90	Lithuania	34.2%	$18.2	0.03%
#91	Syria	30.0%	$18.0	0.03%
#92	Yemen	64.8%	$17.9	0.03%
#93	El Salvador	67.1%	$17.5	0.03%
#94	Cameroon	39.1%	$15.1	0.02%
#95	Luxembourg	21.4%	$14.9	0.02%
#96	Jamaica	94.4%	$14.6	0.02%
#97	Senegal	61.6%	$14.5	0.02%
#98	Mozambique	99.8%	$14.4	0.02%
#99	Bulgaria	20.4%	$13.3	0.02%
#100	Latvia	35.9%	$12.5	0.02%
#101	Turkmenistan	29.1%	$11.9	0.02%
#102	Uganda	41.4%	$11.6	0.02%
#103	Albania	69.9%	$10.5	0.02%
#104	Uzbekistan	20.6%	$10.4	0.02%
#105	Lao P.D.R.	57.2%	$10.4	0.01%
#106	Gabon	60.7%	$10.2	0.01%
#107	Congo, Republic of	87.8%	$10.2	0.01%
#108	Trinidad and Tobago	45.1%	$10.2	0.01%
#109	Iceland	37.6%	$9.8	0.01%
#110	Honduras	40.2%	$9.6	0.01%
#111	Mauritius	66.2%	$9.4	0.01%
#112	Paraguay	21.5%	$9.0	0.01%
#113	Azerbaijan	18.8%	$8.8	0.01%
#114	Nepal	30.2%	$8.8	0.01%
#115	Papua New Guinea	35.5%	$8.2	0.01%
#116	Bahamas, The	63.3%	$7.9	0.01%
#117	Zimbabwe	37.1%	$7.8	0.01%
#118	Georgia	44.9%	$7.3	0.01%
#119	Congo, Dem. Rep. of the	15.3%	$7.2	0.01%
#120	Cambodia	28.6%	$7.0	0.01%
#121	Bosnia and Herzegovina	34.3%	$6.9	0.01%
#122	Namibia	45.8%	$6.6	0.01%
#123	Malta	45.2%	$6.6	0.01%
#124	Mali	37.3%	$6.4	0.01%
#125	Barbados	125.7%	$6.4	0.01%
#126	Armenia	51.3%	$6.4	0.01%
#127	Burkina Faso	42.9%	$6.1	0.01%
#128	Equatorial Guinea	43.3%	$5.9	0.01%
#129	Benin	41.0%	$5.9	0.01%
#130	Madagascar	45.7%	$5.5	0.01%
#131	Chad	48.3%	$5.3	0.01%
#132	North Macedonia	40.5%	$5.1	0.01%
#133	Niger	53.8%	$5.0	0.01%
#134	Nicaragua	37.2%	$4.9	0.01%
#135	Guinea	38.2%	$4.6	0.01%
#136	Kyrgyz Republic	56.0%	$4.5	0.01%
#137	Mauritania	82.9%	$4.3	0.01%
#138	Malawi	62.9%	$4.3	0.01%
#139	Togo	76.2%	$4.1	0.01%
#140	Montenegro	72.6%	$4.0	0.01%
#141	Rwanda	40.7%	$3.9	0.01%
#142	Maldives	68.0%	$3.6	0.01%
#143	Tajikistan	47.9%	$3.6	0.01%
#144	Eritrea	174.3%	$3.5	0.01%
#145	Moldova	29.7%	$3.4	0.00%
#146	Haiti	33.3%	$3.2	0.00%
#147	Bhutan	102.4%	$2.6	0.00%
#148	Sierra Leone	63.0%	$2.6	0.00%
#149	Estonia	8.3%	$2.6	0.00%
#150	Fiji	46.2%	$2.6	0.00%
#151	Suriname	72.8%	$2.5	0.00%
#152	Cabo Verde	124.5%	$2.5	0.00%
#153	Aruba	84.5%	$2.4	0.00%
#154	Botswana	12.1%	$2.3	0.00%
#155	Guyana	52.9%	$2.1	0.00%
#156	Burundi	58.4%	$2.0	0.00%
#157	South Sudan, Republic of	42.2%	$1.9	0.00%
#158	Belize	95.2%	$1.8	0.00%
#159	Eswatini	35.2%	$1.7	0.00%
#160	Antigua and Barbuda	89.5%	$1.4	0.00%
#161	Gambia, The	86.6%	$1.4	0.00%
#162	Djibouti	48.0%	$1.4	0.00%
#163	Afghanistan	6.9%	$1.4	0.00%
#164	Kosovo	17.0%	$1.4	0.00%
#165	Liberia	39.9%	$1.3	0.00%
#166	San Marino	77.9%	$1.3	0.00%
#167	Saint Lucia	64.3%	$1.2	0.00%
#168	Lesotho	44.5%	$1.2	0.00%
#169	Central African Republic	49.9%	$1.1	0.00%
#170	Guinea-Bissau	64.3%	$0.9	0.00%
#171	Seychelles	56.9%	$0.9	0.00%
#172	Grenada	63.5%	$0.8	0.00%
#173	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	74.5%	$0.6	0.00%
#174	Saint Kitts and Nevis	60.5%	$0.6	0.00%
#175	Vanuatu	51.4%	$0.5	0.00%
#176	Samoa	50.3%	$0.4	0.00%
#177	Dominica	74.1%	$0.4	0.00%
#178	Hong Kong SAR	0.1%	$0.4	0.00%
#179	Brunei Darussalam	2.6%	$0.4	0.00%
#180	São Tomé and Príncipe	74.5%	$0.3	0.00%
#181	Comoros	21.0%	$0.2	0.00%
#182	Timor-Leste	6.1%	$0.2	0.00%
#183	Solomon Islands	9.4%	$0.1	0.00%
#184	Micronesia, Fed. States of	20.3%	$0.1	0.00%
#185	Nauru	58.3%	$0.1	0.00%
#186	Marshall Islands	25.2%	$0.1	0.00%
#187	Kiribati	20.6%	$0.0	0.00%
#188	Tuvalu	28.1%	$0.0	0.00%

In absolute terms, the most indebted nation is the United States, which has a gross debt of $21.5 trillion according to the IMF as of 2018.

If you’re looking for a more precise figure for 2019, the U.S. government’s “Debt to the Penny” dataset puts the amount owing to exactly $23,015,089,744,090.63 as of November 12, 2019.

Of course, the U.S. is also the world’s largest economy in nominal terms, putting the debt to GDP ratio at 104.3%

Other stand outs from the list above include Japan, which has the highest debt to GDP ratio (237.1%), and China , which has increased government debt by almost $2 trillion in just the last two years. Meanwhile, the European economies of Italy and Belgium check the box as other large debtors with ratios topping 100% debt to GDP.

Central Banks

The Silver Series: The Start of A New Gold-Silver Cycle (Part 1 of 3)

As the decade-long bull run shows signs of slowing, is it time for precious metals to shine? Here’s why it could be the start of a new gold-silver cycle.

Published

3 months ago

September 11, 2019

Nicholas LePan

The world has experienced a decade of growth fueled by record-low interest rates, a burgeoning money supply, and historic debt levels – but the good times only last so long.

As the global economy slows and eventually begins to retract, can precious metals offer a useful store of value to investors?

Part 1: The Start of a New Cycle

Today’s infographic comes to us from Endeavour Silver, and it outlines some key indicators that precede a coming gold-silver cycle in which exposure to hard assets may help to protect wealth.

The Start of a New Gold-Silver Cycle

Bankers Blowing Bubbles

Since 2008, central bankers around the world launched a historic market intervention by printing money and bailing out major banks. With cheap and abundant money, this strategy worked so well that it created a bull market in every sector — except for precious metals.

Stock markets, consumer lending, and property values surged. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s assets ballooned, and so did corporate, government, and household debt. By 2018, total debt reached almost $250 trillion worldwide.

Currency vs. Precious Metals

The world awash in unprecedented amounts of currency, and these dollars chase a limited supply of goods. Historically speaking, it’s only a matter of time before the price of goods increases or inflates – eroding the purchasing power of every dollar.

Gold and silver are some of the only assets unaffected by inflation, retaining their value.

Gold and silver are money… everything else is credit.

– J.P. Morgan

The Perfect Story for a Gold-Silver Cycle?

Investors can use several indicators to gauge the beginning of the gold-silver cycle:

Gold/Silver Futures

Most traders do not trade physical gold and silver, but paper contracts with the promise to buy at a future price. Every week, U.S. commodity exchanges publish the Commitment of Traders “COT” report. This report summarizes the positions (long/short) of traders for a particular commodity.

Typically, speculators are long and commercial traders are short the price of gold and silver. However, when speculators and commercial traders positions reach near zero, there is usually a big upswing in the price of silver.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Compression

As the difference between gold and silver prices decreases (i.e. the compression of the ratio), history suggests silver prices can make big moves upwards in price. The gold-to-silver ratio compression is now at high levels and may eventually revert to its long-term average, which implies a strong movement in prices is imminent for silver.
Scarcity: Declining Silver Production

Silver production has been declining despite its growing importance as a safe haven hedge, as well as its use in industrial applications and renewable technologies.
The Silver Exception

Silver is not just for coins, bars, jewelry and the family silverware. It stands out from gold with its practical industrial uses which account for 56.1% of its annual consumption. Silver will continue to be a critical material in solar technology. While photovoltaics currently account for 8% of annual silver consumption, this is set to change with the dramatic increase in the use of solar technologies.

The Price of Gold and Silver

Forecasting the exact price of gold and silver is not a science, but there are clear signs that point to the direction their prices will head. The prices of gold and silver do not accurately reflect a world awash with cheap and easy money, but now may be their time to shine.

Don’t miss another part of the Silver Series by connecting with Visual Capitalist.