Connect with us

Economy

Countries Ranked by Their Economic Complexity

Published

on

global economic complexity ranking

Countries Ranked by Their Economic Complexity

In the past, the trade between nations was a much simpler matter to grasp. Commodities and a few finished goods moved between a handful of countries in a straightforward way.

Today, around 6,000 officially classified products pass through the world’s ports, and digital products and services zip across country lines creating an extra layer of difficulty in measuring economic activity.

To try to understand this enormous level of economic complexity, the team at Harvard’s Growth Lab have created the Country Complexity Ranking. Here’s a look at the top 50 countries in the ranking:

RankCountryScoreTop Export(s)
1Japan2.28Cars, ICT (tech)
2Switzerland2.14ICT, gold, packaged medicaments
3South Korea2.05ICT, cars
4Germany2.02Integrated circuits, ICT, cars
5Singapore1.81ICT, cars
6Czech Rep.1.79Cars, vehicle parts
7Austria1.71ICT, tourism
8Finland1.69ICT
9Sweden1.67ICT
10Hungary1.64ICT, cars
11Slovenia1.57Cars, ICT
12United States1.47ICT, tourism
13Italy1.42ICT, tourism
14United Kingdom1.42ICT, finance
15Slovakia1.41Cars
16France1.40ICT, tourism
17Ireland1.39ICT
18Israel1.37ICT, diamonds
19China1.30Electronic equipment
20Mexico1.27Cars
21Poland1.19ICT
22Denmark1.18Transport, ICT
23Belgium1.16ICT
24Romania1.16ICT, vehicle parts
25Thailand1.15Tourism
26Netherlands1.04ICT
27Estonia1.03ICT, transport
28Malaysia0.95Integrated circuits
29Belarus0.93Refined oils, ICT
30Croatia0.92Tourism, ICT
31Lithuania0.85Transport, refined oils
32Spain0.85Tourism, ICT
33Philippines0.75Integrated circuits, ICT
34Portugal0.72Tourism, ICT
35Canada0.69Crude oil, cars, ICT
36Bosnia and Herz.0.65Tourism, ICT
37Serbia0.65ICT
38Turkey0.65Tourism, transport
39Latvia0.64Transport, ICT
40Bulgaria0.62Tourism, ICT
41Norway0.56Crude oil, petrol. gases
42Ukraine0.42ICT, transport
43Cyprus0.38Tourism, transport
44Tunisia0.34Electrical wire, tourism
45India0.32ICT
46Costa Rica0.30ICT, tourism
47Uruguay0.29Tourism, wood pulp
48Brazil0.24Soya beans, iron ore
49Russia0.24Crude oil, refined oils
50Lebanon0.24Tourism, ICT

Source

Japan, Switzerland, and South Korea sit at the top of the ranking.

Czech Republic – which was recently ranked as the most attractive manufacturing destination in Europe – has a strong showing, ranking 6th in the world. The United States slipped out of the top 10 into 12th position.

The Power of Productive Knowledge

Highly ranked countries tend to have the following attributes:

    • A high diversity of exported products
    • Sophisticated and unique exported products (i.e. few other countries produce similar products)

In short, the ranking hinges on the concept of “productive knowledge” – or the tacit ability to produce a product.

Muhammed Yildirim, of Harvard University, has thought up a useful analogy for thinking about the role of productive knowledge in the complexity of an economy:

“Suppose that each type of productive knowledge is a letter and each product is a word composed of these letters. Like the game of Scrabble, each country holds a set of letters with plenty of copies of each letter and tries to make words out of these letters. For instance, with letters like A, C and T, one can construct words like CAT or ACT. Then our problem of measuring economic complexity resembles interpreting how many different letters there are in each country’s portfolio. Some letters, like A and E, go in many words, whereas other letters, like X and Q, are used in very few. Extending this analogy to the countries and products, only those with a larger diversity of letters will be able to make more and more unique products. On the other hand, words that require more letters will be made only in the countries that have all the requisite pieces.”

complexity scrabble analogy

Not All Exports are Created Equal

Much like the rack of letters in a Scrabble game, the elements of every export-driven economy can be broken down and quantified. The resulting categories encompass everything from rendered pig fat to integrated circuits, each contributing to the country’s overall score.

complexity connectiveness by sector

Agricultural and extractive industries tend to score lower on the complexity scale. Machinery can be highly complex to produce and is connected to many facets of the global economy.

Visualizing this overall mix of categories can provide a unique perspective beyond big picture numbers like GDP. Below are a few real world examples of export markets on both ends of the complexity spectrum.

Japan

Since this ranking began in the mid-1990s, Japan has never been bumped from the top spot.

Due to a restricted land mass and some ingenuity, Japan has become the prototypical example of a low-ubiquity, high-sophistication export economy.

japan economic complexity breakdown

Interactive breakdown

⁨Cars and electronics are obvious standouts, but there numerous other high-value product categories in the mix as well. The country also has a wide variety of high value exports and trading partners, lowering the risk of a trade war or industry downturn crippling the country’s economy.

Australia

Many will be surprised to learn that Australia sits in the lower third of this complexity ranking.

Although Australia’s global ranking is high in a myriad of categories – household wealth per person, for example – its economic complexity score is -0.60, much lower than expected for its income level. Looking at the breakdown below, there are clues as to why this might be the case.

australia economic complexity breakdown

Interactive breakdown

Australia’s⁩ largest exports are in ⁨low⁩ complexity categories, such as minerals and agriculture. To compound matters, the country’s economy is heavily linked to China’s. To underscore this point, a recent study found that a 5% drop in China’s GDP would result in a 2.5% dip in Australia’s.

Venezuela

It’s no secret that Venezuela has seen some tough times in recent years. The chart below shows just how reliant Venezuela was on oil exports to sustain its economy.

venezuela economic complexity breakdown

Interactive breakdown

An over-reliance on a single export can leave a country extremely vulnerable in the event of price volatility or geopolitical events. In the case of Venezuela, three quarters of their export economy was comprised of crude oil – one of the lowest scoring product categories in the ranking.

The Rush to Diversify

A low level of economic complexity isn’t necessarily a problem. Many countries with middle-to-low scores in the ranking have great standards of living and a high level of wealth. Countries like Canada, Norway, and Australia were all well down the list.

On the other hand, some countries have made diversification a priority. SoftBank’s $100 billion Vision Fund is partially the result of Saudi Arabia’s push to develop a diversified, knowledge-based economy. Other oil-rich nations, such as Kazakhstan, are also pushing to diversify in the face of the world’s evolving energy mix.

As world economies evolve and the shift from fossil fuels continues, we will likely see economic complexity increase across the board.

Subscribe to Visual Capitalist

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading
Comments

China

An Investing Megatrend: How Emerging Wealth is Shaping the Future

Emerging markets are ascending on the global stage and wielding more economic power—and it’s drastically altering the investment landscape.

Published

on

Globalisation is a rising tide that lifts all boats.

In an increasingly connected world, countries are engaging with global markets more than ever before. As a result, global wealth is shifting towards emerging markets. This megatrend—a global trend with sustained impacts—is profoundly influencing everyday life, society, and business.

Shifting Economic Power

Today’s infographic from iShares by BlackRock explains how emerging markets are classified, along with which countries are growing the fastest—and how investors can follow the money.

BlackRock-Emerging-Markets Global Wealth

What Is An Emerging Market?

Every economy goes through five distinct stages of growth:

  1. Traditional Society: Based on primary industries, such as subsistence farming.
  2. The Pre-Conditions of Take-off: Spread of technology creates a more productive agricultural economy.
  3. Take-off: Industrialisation begins, and technological breakthroughs occur.
  4. Drive to Maturity: More complex manufacturing, and large-scale infrastructure investment takes place.
  5. Age of Mass Consumption: Urban society and a tertiary industry dominate, as disposable income grows.
  6. Source

    Emerging markets fall into the transitory stages between ‘Take-off’ and ‘Drive to maturity’ as their economies modernise. Today, such countries offer lots of promise, but also come with a range of challenges:

    • Pro: Greater return potential, growing middle class, increasing consumption
    • Risk: Political instability, lack of infrastructure, lack of market access

    Between 2000–2018, emerging markets’ share of global wealth has more than doubled from 10% to 24%. China is a major player in this transformation.

    China’s Economic Might

    China’s impressive trajectory from agricultural economy to global superpower cannot be ignored. The nation is on track to overtake the U.S. in terms of gross domestic product (GDP, nominal) by the year 2030.

    Year🇨🇳 China GDP🇺🇸 U.S. GDP
    2000$2.2T$12.6T
    2010$6.1T$15T
    2018$10.8T$17.8T
    2020E$16T$20.2T
    2030E$26.5T$23.5T
    2040E$36.6T$28.3T
    2050E$50T$34.1T

    China’s enormous growth has a ripple effect on its GDP composition. A more affluent middle class is buying higher-priced discretionary goods—such as cars and electronics—boosting the country’s domestic consumption.

    Investors must keep an eye out for other emerging markets that are emulating China’s example.

    One Piece Of the Puzzle

    China is just one case study—several other economies are also making strides on the world stage. Each country brings unique advantages, but also barriers to overcome.

    CountryReal GDP Growth (2019E)StrengthsWeaknesses
    🇮🇳 India7.4%✔ Rapidly growing economy
    ✔ Vast working-age population
    ✘ Red tape
    ✘ Lack of infrastructure
    🇨🇳 China6.2%✔ Good infrastructure
    ✔ High R&D spending
    ✘ Ageing population
    ✘ High debt
    🇮🇩 Indonesia5.1%✔ Cheap labour
    ✔ Diversifying economy
    ✘Wide income gap
    ✘ Lack of infrastructure
    🇲🇽 Mexico2.5%✔ Integrated with global economy
    ✔ Cheap and qualified labour
    ✘ Political unrest
    ✘ Reliant on U.S. ties
    🇧🇷 Brazil2.4%✔ Diversifying economy
    ✔ Strategic location
    ✘ High production costs
    ✘ Inflation
    🇳🇬 Nigeria2.3%✔ High FDI
    ✔ Diversifying economy
    ✘ Political unrest
    ✘ Lack of infrastructure
    🇷🇺 Russia1.8%✔ Natural resources
    ✔ Educated workforce
    ✘ Political unrest
    ✘ Lack of FDI
    🇹🇷 Turkey0.4%✔ Cheap labour
    ✔ Strategic location
    ✘ Political unrest
    ✘ Red tape

    Source: Global Finance Magazine

    With these major emerging markets in mind, how can investors tap into the global wealth shift?

    Where Are the Opportunities?

    There are several avenues for an investor to play into this megatrend: structural solutions, consumer goods, and international investment.

    Structural solutions

    Emerging markets are increasingly gaining access to technology. Growth in connectivity is closely linked with improved productivity, and many countries are ripe for a surge in online users.

    However, much can still be done to speed up technological adoption, such as boosting 3G/4G network volume and coverage, and lowering the cost of data and smartphones to be more economical.

    By helping solve some of these structural constraints through technological innovation, investors can tap into the economic growth of emerging markets.

    Consumer goods

    As disposable income increases, a sizeable middle class will seek out products that elevate the quality of life. In India, domestic consumption is estimated to hit $6 trillion by 2023—four times its 2018 level.

    The region’s spending will likely be propelled by higher-priced goods, as well as a wider variety of choices across food, transport, and fitness categories.

    Global brands that plan to expand into emerging markets, or companies with a proven track record in these areas, are potential winners for investment.

    International investment

    Last but not least, investors can identify local winners in emerging wealth markets, through active or passive investing.

    An active investment strategy would be to directly buy into individual company stocks, listed on a country’s stock exchange. Meanwhile, a passive investing strategy would be to seek out exchange-traded funds (ETFs) covering specific markets, and/or sectors within emerging markets. Many of these are also listed on major exchanges.

    Diversifying either or both strategies across two or more countries can help mitigate risk. Investors can also choose index funds that broadly encompass all emerging markets.

    As countries climb the economic ladder, the emerging wealth shift continues to gain momentum. By staying attuned to these macro changes, investors may unlock long-term growth from emerging markets.

    Subscribe to Visual Capitalist

    Thank you!
    Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
    Please provide a valid email address.
    Please complete the CAPTCHA.
    Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading

China

Visualized: Ranking the Goods Most Traded Between the U.S. and China

This infographic ranks the top 10 exports and imports of the U.S. and China, the two most significant global economic superpowers today.

Published

on

Most Traded Goods U.S. and China

The Most Traded Goods Between the U.S. and China

From a young age, many of us were taught that sharing is caring.

Many countries have also followed this simple principle, in the interest of growth and prosperity, when doing business on a global scale.

Today’s infographic from HowMuch.net charts the top imports and exports between the U.S. and China, pulled from the Observatory of Economic Complexity’s (OEC) global market data for 2017.

Which items do you find most surprising?

Give and Take: The Trade Relationship of the U.S. and China

Two of the world’s largest superpowers today, the U.S. and China have typically had a long-standing trade relationship going back decades.

The table below shows the top 10 exports the U.S. sent to China in 2017, along with the proportion of each item in the total export value of $132 billion. The top 10 items account for 39% of total exports to China.

The Top 10 Exports from the U.S. to China (2017)

ItemsValue (US$B)% of Total Exports
Aeroplanes and other aircraft$13.19.9%
Soya beans$12.59.4%
Vehicles with only spark-ignition internal
combustion reciprocating piston engine
$7.96.0%
Electronic integrated circuits; Processors and controllers$4.93.7%
Oils$4.03.0%
Gold$2.11.6%
Machines and apparatus for the manufacture of semiconductor
devices or of electronic integrated circuits
$1.91.5%
Vehicles for transport of persons$1.91.4%
Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons$1.71.3%
Copper$1.61.2%

While the majority of these are highly specialized, manufactured products─such as airplanes, integrated circuits, and semiconductors─the U.S. still relies on exporting many basic commodities such as gold, copper, and soya beans.

Below is the list of the top 10 imported products from China, and the percent that each product accounts of the total $444 billion in 2017. These top 10 items make up 30% of all products imported from China.

The Top 10 Imports from China to the U.S. (2017)

ItemsValue (US$B)% of Total Imports
Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks$43.79.8%
Automatic data processing machines$37.28.4%
Trycicles, scooters and similar wheeled toys & other toys$12.32.8%
Communication apparatus$11.32.5%
Games; articles for funfair$5.41.2%
Other Monitors$4.71.1%
Units of automatic data processing machines$4.41.0%
Electrical static converters$4.61.0%
Seats$4.31.0%
Reception apparatus for television$4.20.9%

China is best known for its electronics and technology-focused products─with electronics products accounting for two-thirds of the top 10 Chinese imports. In 2017, China also dominated all electronics imports into the U.S., claiming over 60% of the market.

But how has the recent trade war impacted the imports and exports between the U.S. and China?

The U.S.-China Trade War Continues

At one point, China was the United States’ top trading partner in terms of the total value of imports and exports. Since the trade war began in 2018, China has fallen to third place.

For example, soybean exports to China in 2019 are predicted to only reach a third of numbers seen in 2018, and the price of this commodity has been nearly cut in half.

In the first nine months of 2019 alone, the U.S. saw a 13.5% drop in imported products from China, due to actual and threatened increased tariffs. In addition, U.S. exports to China dropped by 15.5%─a significant loss of $53 billion.

The Future of U.S.-China Trade

To date, the U.S. has enacted tariffs on over $550 billion worth of imported products from China. In response to the U.S. tariffs, China has added tariffs to $185 billion worth of exported goods from the United States.

With the 2020 U.S. presidential election looming on the horizon, threats of increased tariffs seem to dominate headlines internationally. If these trends continue, many U.S. businesses—both at home and abroad in China—could find their bottom lines threatened by rising trade costs.

Subscribe to Visual Capitalist

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading
Get more Visual Capitalist with VC+

Subscribe

Join the 130,000+ subscribers who receive our daily email

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Popular