Countries Ranked by Their Economic Complexity
In the past, the trade between nations was a much simpler matter to grasp. Commodities and a few finished goods moved between a handful of countries in a straightforward way.
Today, around 6,000 officially classified products pass through the world’s ports, and digital products and services zip across country lines creating an extra layer of difficulty in measuring economic activity.
To try to understand this enormous level of economic complexity, the team at Harvard’s Growth Lab have created the Country Complexity Ranking. Here’s a look at the top 50 countries in the ranking:
|1||Japan||2.28||Cars, ICT (tech)|
|2||Switzerland||2.14||ICT, gold, packaged medicaments|
|3||South Korea||2.05||ICT, cars|
|4||Germany||2.02||Integrated circuits, ICT, cars|
|6||Czech Rep.||1.79||Cars, vehicle parts|
|12||United States||1.47||ICT, tourism|
|14||United Kingdom||1.42||ICT, finance|
|24||Romania||1.16||ICT, vehicle parts|
|29||Belarus||0.93||Refined oils, ICT|
|31||Lithuania||0.85||Transport, refined oils|
|33||Philippines||0.75||Integrated circuits, ICT|
|35||Canada||0.69||Crude oil, cars, ICT|
|36||Bosnia and Herz.||0.65||Tourism, ICT|
|41||Norway||0.56||Crude oil, petrol. gases|
|44||Tunisia||0.34||Electrical wire, tourism|
|46||Costa Rica||0.30||ICT, tourism|
|47||Uruguay||0.29||Tourism, wood pulp|
|48||Brazil||0.24||Soya beans, iron ore|
|49||Russia||0.24||Crude oil, refined oils|
Japan, Switzerland, and South Korea sit at the top of the ranking.
Czech Republic – which was recently ranked as the most attractive manufacturing destination in Europe – has a strong showing, ranking 6th in the world. The United States slipped out of the top 10 into 12th position.
The Power of Productive Knowledge
Highly ranked countries tend to have the following attributes:
• A high diversity of exported products
• Sophisticated and unique exported products (i.e. few other countries produce similar products)
In short, the ranking hinges on the concept of “productive knowledge” – or the tacit ability to produce a product.
Muhammed Yildirim, of Harvard University, has thought up a useful analogy for thinking about the role of productive knowledge in the complexity of an economy:
“Suppose that each type of productive knowledge is a letter and each product is a word composed of these letters. Like the game of Scrabble, each country holds a set of letters with plenty of copies of each letter and tries to make words out of these letters. For instance, with letters like A, C and T, one can construct words like CAT or ACT. Then our problem of measuring economic complexity resembles interpreting how many different letters there are in each country’s portfolio. Some letters, like A and E, go in many words, whereas other letters, like X and Q, are used in very few. Extending this analogy to the countries and products, only those with a larger diversity of letters will be able to make more and more unique products. On the other hand, words that require more letters will be made only in the countries that have all the requisite pieces.”
Not All Exports are Created Equal
Much like the rack of letters in a Scrabble game, the elements of every export-driven economy can be broken down and quantified. The resulting categories encompass everything from rendered pig fat to integrated circuits, each contributing to the country’s overall score.
Agricultural and extractive industries tend to score lower on the complexity scale. Machinery can be highly complex to produce and is connected to many facets of the global economy.
Visualizing this overall mix of categories can provide a unique perspective beyond big picture numbers like GDP. Below are a few real world examples of export markets on both ends of the complexity spectrum.
Since this ranking began in the mid-1990s, Japan has never been bumped from the top spot.
Due to a restricted land mass and some ingenuity, Japan has become the prototypical example of a low-ubiquity, high-sophistication export economy.
Cars and electronics are obvious standouts, but there numerous other high-value product categories in the mix as well. The country also has a wide variety of high value exports and trading partners, lowering the risk of a trade war or industry downturn crippling the country’s economy.
Many will be surprised to learn that Australia sits in the lower third of this complexity ranking.
Although Australia’s global ranking is high in a myriad of categories – household wealth per person, for example – its economic complexity score is -0.60, much lower than expected for its income level. Looking at the breakdown below, there are clues as to why this might be the case.
Australia’s largest exports are in low complexity categories, such as minerals and agriculture. To compound matters, the country’s economy is heavily linked to China’s. To underscore this point, a recent study found that a 5% drop in China’s GDP would result in a 2.5% dip in Australia’s.
It’s no secret that Venezuela has seen some tough times in recent years. The chart below shows just how reliant Venezuela was on oil exports to sustain its economy.
An over-reliance on a single export can leave a country extremely vulnerable in the event of price volatility or geopolitical events. In the case of Venezuela, three quarters of their export economy was comprised of crude oil – one of the lowest scoring product categories in the ranking.
The Rush to Diversify
A low level of economic complexity isn’t necessarily a problem. Many countries with middle-to-low scores in the ranking have great standards of living and a high level of wealth. Countries like Canada, Norway, and Australia were all well down the list.
On the other hand, some countries have made diversification a priority. SoftBank’s $100 billion Vision Fund is partially the result of Saudi Arabia’s push to develop a diversified, knowledge-based economy. Other oil-rich nations, such as Kazakhstan, are also pushing to diversify in the face of the world’s evolving energy mix.
As world economies evolve and the shift from fossil fuels continues, we will likely see economic complexity increase across the board.
How Do Esports Companies Compare with Sports Teams?
With some esports companies more valuable than traditional sports teams, we visualize esports vs sports in franchise value.
How Do Esports Companies Compare with Sports Teams?
Are esports on the same level as “real” sports? These comparisons range from tricky to subjective, but the monetary value of companies speak for themselves.
The world’s largest esports companies have definitely risen to the occasion. Valued at almost half-a-billion dollars, they’ve started to pass some sports franchises in value.
In the above graphic, we compare Forbes’ valuation of the top 10 esports companies in 2020 against median franchises in the “Big Four” major leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL). Despite competitive gaming’s rapid growth, there’s still a long way left to go.
Esports Impress but NFL Teams Reign Supreme
The world’s top esports companies have grown quickly, and impressively.
As of 2018, there was only one esports company worth more than $300 million in valuation. By 2020, four of the top 10 were valued at more than $300 million.
|Esports Company||Games with Franchises||Value (2020)|
|TSM||League of Legends||$410M|
|Cloud9||League of Legends, Overwatch||$350M|
|Team Liquid||League of Legends||$310M|
|FaZe Clan||Call of Duty||$305M|
|100 Thieves||League of Legends, Call of Duty||$190M|
|Gen.G||League of Legends, Overwatch, NBA 2K||$185M|
|Enthusiast Gaming||Call of Duty, Overwatch||$180M|
|G2 Esports||League of Legends||$175M|
|NRG Esports||Call of Duty, Overwatch||$155M|
|T1||League of Legends||$150M|
When compared to traditional sports valuations, esports companies have already reached major league hockey status.
TSM, the world’s most valuable esports company in 2020, has a higher valuation than five NHL franchises. In fact, four esports companies were estimated to be more valuable than two NHL franchises, the Florida Panthers and Arizona Coyotes.
But other sports leagues are further away. While the median value of an NHL franchise in 2020 was $520 million, the MLB, NBA, and NFL all saw median values of over $1.6 billion.
|Esports vs. Sports Franchises||Lowest Valued Team||Highest Valued Team||Median|
|Esports (Top 10)||$150M||$410M||$188M|
Differences in Esports vs Sports Structures and Growth
Try as we might to make a clean apples-to-apples comparison between esports and traditional sports teams, there are significant differences in the business models to consider.
For starters, major esports companies own multiple franchises and non-franchise teams across many games. Cloud9 owns both the eponymous Cloud9 League of Legends franchise and the London Spitfire Overwatch franchise, for example, as well as non-franchise teams in Halo, Counter Strike: Global Offensive, Fortnite, and other games.
The revenue streams for esports companies are also extremely varied. Companies like TSM, 100 Thieves, FaZe Clan and Enthusiast Gaming made 50% or more of their revenue from outside of esports, having instead expanded into diverse companies with an equal focus on content creation and apps.
But it’s this greater ability to diversify, and the still-increasing size of esports fandom, that continues to grow esports valuations. In fact, TSM’s estimated 2020 revenue of $45 million is less than half of the Arizona Coyotes’ estimated revenue of $95 million, despite a $100+ million valuation difference in favor of TSM.
That’s why the continued maturation of esports is only going to make traditional sports comparisons easier, and closer. Instead of having to pit companies against franchises, direct league-to-league comparisons will be possible, and the differences will likely shrink from billions to millions.
Global Stars: The Most Innovative Countries, Ranked by Income Group
From Switzerland and China to Vietnam and Tanzania — here are the world’s most innovative countries, taking income per capita into account.
The Most Innovative Countries, Ranked by Income Group
Innovation can be instrumental to the success of economies, at macro and micro scales. While investment provides powerful fuel for innovation—the relationship isn’t always straightforward.
The 2020 ranking from the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) reveals just that.
The above map breaks down the most innovative countries in each World Bank income group, based on data from WIPO’s Global Innovation Index (GII), which evaluates nations across 80 innovation indicators like research and development (R&D), venture capital, and high-tech production.
While wealthier nations continue to lead global innovation, the GII also shows that middle-income countries—particularly in Asia—are making impressive strides.
The economic and regulatory spheres within countries can have an enormous impact on their level of innovation—and vice versa, as innovation in turn becomes an economic driver, stimulating further investment.
The positive feedback loop between investment and innovation results in the success of some of the top countries in the table below, which shows the three most innovative countries in each income group.
|Income Group||Group Rank||Country (Overall Rank)|
|High||1||🇨🇭 Switzerland (#1)|
|High||2||🇸🇪 Sweden (#2)|
|High||3||🇺🇸 United States of America (#3)|
|Upper Middle||1||🇨🇳 China (#14)|
|Upper Middle||2||🇲🇾 Malaysia (#33)|
|Upper Middle||3||🇧🇬 Bulgaria (#37)|
|Lower Middle||1||🇻🇳 Vietnam (#42)|
|Lower Middle||2||🇺🇦 Ukraine (#45)|
|Lower Middle||3||🇮🇳 India (#48)|
|Low||1||🇹🇿 Tanzania (#88)|
|Low||2||🇷🇼 Rwanda (#91)|
|Low||3||🇲🇼 Malawi (#111)|
Switzerland, Sweden, and the U.S. are the top three in the high-income group. Considering that Switzerland has the second-highest GDP per capita globally, it is not a surprise leader on this list.
Upper middle-income countries are led by China, Malaysia, and Bulgaria. Note that China far surpasses other nations in the upper-middle-income group ranking, reaching 14th spot overall in 2020. Others in the income group only appear in the overall ranking after 30th place.
Below are several income group leaders, and some of their key areas of output:
- Switzerland: First in Knowledge Creation, second in Global Brand Value
- U.S.: First in Entertainment and Media, Computer Software Spending, Intellectual Property Receipts
- China: First in Patents Registered
- Vietnam: Second in High-Technology Net Exports
- India: First in Information and Communication Technology Services Exports
- Tanzania: 23rd in Printing and Other Media
Shining a Light on Global Innovators
Since 2011, Switzerland has led the world in innovation according to this index, and the top five countries have seen few changes in recent years.
Sweden regained second place in 2019 and the U.S. moved into third—positions they maintain in 2020. The Netherlands entered the top two in 2018 and now sits at fifth.
Here’s how the overall ranking shakes out:
|3||United States of America||60.6||High|
|11||Hong Kong, China||54.2||High|
|34||United Arab Emiratesx||42.4||High|
|42||Viet Nam||37.1||Lower Middle|
|47||Russian Federation||35.6||Upper Middle|
|56||Costa Rica||33.5||Upper Middle|
|57||North Macedonia||33.4||Upper Middle|
|59||Republic of Moldova||33.0||Lower Middle|
|60||South Africa||32.7||Upper Middle|
|67||Iran (Islamic Republic of)||30.9||High|
|74||Bosnia and Herzegovina||29.0||Upper Middle|
|88||United Republic of Tanzania||25.6||Lower I|
|90||Dominican Republic||25.1||Upper Middle|
|92||El Salvador||24.9||Lower Middle|
|98||Trinidad and Tobago||24.1||High|
|100||Cabo Verde||23.9||Lower Middle|
|101||Sri Lanka||23.8||Upper Middle|
|105||Bolivia (Plurinational State of)||22.4||Lower Middle|
|112||Côte d’Ivoire||21.2||Lower Middle|
|113||Lao People’s Democratic Republic||20.7||Lower Middle|
|118||Burkina Faso||20.0||Lower I|
Nordic countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Finland continue their strong showing across innovation factors—like Knowledge Creation, Global Brand Value, Environmental Performance, and Intellectual Property Receipts—leading to their continued presence atop global innovators.
But the nations making the biggest moves in GII ranking are found in Asia.
China, Vietnam, India, and the Philippines have risen the most of all countries, with all four now in the top 50. China broke into the top 15 in 2019 and remains the only middle-income economy in the top 30.
In 2020, South Korea became the second Asian economy to enter the top 10, after Singapore. As the first Asian country to move into the global top five, Singapore joined the leaders in 2018, and now sits at 8th place.
In another first for 2020, India has now broken into the top 50.
Innovation Input & Output: The Overachievers
While annual rankings like these confirm the importance of a robust economy and innovation investment, variations in the relationship between input and output are not uncommon.
The correlation between wealth and innovation isn’t always straightforward, and neither is the connection between innovation input and output.
Below is an overview of the GII inputs and outputs, as well as several of the world’s overall leaders in each pillar.
Input variables can be characterized as factors that foster innovation—everything from the quality of a country’s university institutions to its levels of ecological sustainability.
|Input Pillars||Input Examples||Input Leaders|
Human Capital & Research
Venture Capital Deals
7. Hong Kong, China
10. South Korea
Output factors include innovation indicators like the creation of new businesses, and even the number of Wikipedia edits made per million people.
|Output Pillars||Output Types||Output Leaders|
|Knowledge & Technology|
Creative goods and services
National feature films
Entertainment and media
3. United Kingdom
10. South Korea
Countries with impressive innovation outputs compared to input levels include:
- China: 26th in inputs, but sixth in overall innovation outputs
- Netherlands: 11th in innovation input, but fourth across outputs
- Thailand: 48th in overall input, first in business R&D
- Malaysia: 34th in overall input, first in high-tech net exports
Innovation Fuel Reductions Up Ahead?
Although financial markets have ignited, the economy as a whole has not fared well since lockdowns began. This begs the question of whether a steep decline in innovation capital will follow.
In response to the 2020 pandemic, will spending on R&D echo the 2009 recession and aftermath of 9/11? Will venture capital flows continue to decline more than they have since 2018?
Because innovation is so entwined with the economic growth strategies of companies and nations alike, the WIPO notes that the potential decline may not be as severe as historical trends might suggest.
No Stopping Human Innovation
Thankfully, innovation opportunities are not solely contingent on the level of capital infused during any given year. Instead, the cumulative results of continuous innovation stimuli may be enough to maintain growth, while strategic cash reserves are put to use.
What the GII ranking shows is that inputs don’t always equal outputs—and that innovative strides can be made with even modest levels of capital flow.
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