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Visualized: Past Interest Rate Cut Cycles and 2024 Forecasts

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This visual is part of our 2024 Global Forecast Series. For full access to the series, learn more here.

Visualization of past interest rate cutting cycles and interest rate cut forecasts for 2024

Past Interest Rate Cut Cycles and 2024 Rate Cut Forecasts

A key question mark for the U.S. and global economy is around when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024 and by how much.

After a rapid set of rate hikes throughout 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve now faces the challenge of timing its easing of monetary policy to ensure a soft landing for the economy.

This visualization from our 2024 Global Forecast Series uses data from the Federal Reserve to chart past interest rate cut cycles and visualizes forecasts by top banks and institutions on when they expect the first rate cut of 2024 and the number of cuts they expect by end of year.

Looking Back at Past Interest Rate Cuts Cycles

While interest rate cycles are an economic balancing act which must be carefully managed, rate hikes and cuts of the past have typically been steep and swift.

Looking back at past interest rate cuts for historical context, we can see how quickly these easing cycles played out, especially those in the 1970s and 1980s.

Interest Rate Cut CycleRate Cut Cycle Duration (months)Total Rate Cuts
2019-202010-2.35%
2007-200818-5.10%
2000-200333-5.50%
1989-199244-6.89%
1984-198627-5.79%
1981-198320-10.53%
1974-197731-8.31%
1969-197231-5.89%

Rate cuts typically begin once the Federal Reserve has confirmation that the economy has slowed down and inflationary pressures have subsided. Nearly every interest rate cutting cycle has seen the economy enter a recession right before or after rate cuts have started.

“There is always a delay between when central banks raise interest rates and when the economy feels the effects.”

– Simon Rabinovitch, The Economist

While the recessions occur around the time rates are cut, they’re usually a delayed effect from the tighter financial conditions caused by rate hikes, with cuts bringing looser and more accommodative financial conditions for the economy down the line.

This visual is from our 2024 Global Forecast Series Report:
Global Forecast Series 2024
Get full access to the series, which compiles insights from 700+ expert predictions for what will happen in 2024, by becoming a VC+ member today.

Institutional Forecasts for Interest Rate Cuts in 2024

After some of the most rapid rate hikes in history kicked off this latest interest rate cycle in 2022, market participants and banks are leaning towards similarly rapid set of rate cuts in 2024.

Most institutions, including J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, are expecting the Fed’s first rate cut to occur at the mid-point of the year in June. There is a group of outliers which includes UBS, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, that are expecting the first rate cut as early as March.

When it comes to the total amount of interest rate cuts we’ll see in 2024, the majority of institutions are forecasting around 100 to 125 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, which would bring the Federal Funds Rate to around 4-4.25%.

Rate Cuts or Not, is a Recession Inevitable?

While nearly every interest rate cycle of the past has experienced a recession around the time of rate cuts, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is optimistic that this time may be different.

“I have always felt, since the beginning, that there was a possibility, because of the unusual situation, that the economy could cool off in a way that enabled inflation to come down without the kind of large job losses that have often been associated with high inflation and tightening cycles.

So far, that’s what we’re seeing.”

Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve

With FOMC members themselves projecting more conservative rate cuts in 2024 with a forecasted median year-end rate of 4.6%, time will tell whether more conservative or agressive rate cuts this year will manage to keep the economy out of a recession.

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Ranked: Which NBA Team Takes Home the Most Revenue?

The Celtics and the Mavericks are the fourth and fifth highest-earning teams in the NBA. We show the top teams in the NBA by revenue in 2023.

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This circle graphic shows the top teams in the NBA by revenue during the 2022-2023 season.

Which NBA Team Takes Home the Most Revenues?

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The NBA is projected to earn $13 billion in revenue this year before revenue sharing and debt payments, a 11% jump from last season, driving NBA team valuations even higher.

Since 2005, NBA team valuations have increased faster than any other major U.S. league by a wide margin. For perspective, the rise in their combined valuation has exceeded growth in the S&P 500 by more than threefold during this time period.

This graphic shows the top NBA teams by revenue, based on data from JP Morgan Asset Management.

Ranked: The Highest-Earning NBA Teams

Below, we show the revenue of all 30 NBA teams as of the 2022-2023 season:

RankingTeam2022-2023 Season
Revenue
Valuation
1Golden State Warriors$765M$7.7B
2Los Angeles Lakers$516M$6.4B
3New York Knicks$504M$6.6B
4Boston Celtics$443M$4.7B
5Dallas Mavericks$429M$4.5B
6Los Angeles Clippers$425M$4.7B
7Houston Rockets$381M$4.4B
8Chicago Bulls$372M$4.6B
9Philadelphia 76ers$371M$4.3B
10Miami Heat$371M$3.9B
11Brooklyn Nets$367M$3.9B
12Phoenix Suns$366M$4.0B
13Denver Nuggets$348M$3.4B
14Cleveland Cavaliers$348M$3.4B
15Milwaukee Bucks$329M$3.2B
16Atlanta Hawks$326M$3.3B
17Washington Wizards$323M$3.5B
18San Antonio Spurs$319M$3.3B
19Toronto Raptors$305M$4.1B
20Portland Trail Blazers$300M$3.1B
21Sacramento Kings$289M$3.3B
22Utah Jazz$274M$3.1B
23Detroit Pistons$274M$3.1B
24Charlotte Hornets$269M$3.0B
25Oklahoma City Thunder$267M$3.1B
26Indiana Pacers$263M$2.9B
27New Orleans Pelicans$262M$2.6B
28Orlando Magic$261M$3.0B
29Minnesota Timberwolves$259M$2.5B
30Memphis Grizzlies$258M$2.4B

Revenue figures are net of arena debt service and revenue sharing

With $765 million in revenue, the Golden State Warriors are the highest-earning team in the league, thanks to the stellar performances of all-star players Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green.

These players were instrumental in driving the valuation of the franchise, which grew from $1.5 billion in 2015 to a remarkable $7.7 billion in 2023. At this valuation, the Golden State Warriors are the second-most valuable sports team in America, following after the $9 billion Dallas Cowboys NFL franchise. Since 2010, the Warriors’ revenue has increased by sevenfold.

Not only did the team have the highest NBA TV ratings in seven of the last eight years as of last season, the Warriors have the largest social media following across U.S. sport franchises, including 32.4 million Instagram followers. By comparison, the Lakers have 24.6 million followers. Adding to this, the team’s jersey patch deal with Rakuten is worth approximately $45 million per season alone.

Ranking in second are the Los Angeles Lakers, earning $516 million in revenue. Over the last decade, revenues have increased by 76% fueled by the star power of LeBron James and the team’s world-renowned brand. In 2021, the team signed a five-year $100 million jersey patch deal with Korean food brand, Bibigo, making it one of the most valuable in the league.

The New York Knicks are third in revenue with $504 million, followed by the 2023-24 season champions, the Boston Celtics with $443 million in the 2022-23 season and the Dallas Mavericks in fifth at $429 million.

How Do NBA Teams Earn Revenue?

Below, we show the primary sources of revenue for the National Basketball Association (NBA):

Revenue Stream2022-2023 Season
Revenue
Share of Revenues
National Revenue
(Media/broadcast deals, merchandise, shared ticket revenue, other sponsorships)
$4.5B41%
Seating/Suites$2.9B26%
Local Media$1.4B13%
Team Sponsorships$1.3B12%
Concessions/Parking/Other$0.9B8%

As we can see, national revenue makes up the league’s largest share, driven by broadcasting and streaming agreements with national providers.

Going forward, these contract values are set to grow substantially. Today, the league is negotiating broadcasting deals with Amazon, ESPN, and NBC worth an estimated $76 billion over 11 years—making the annual contract value 2.6 times higher than its current contract. With NBA viewership up 16% across ESPN and ABC compared to the 2021-2022 season, strong demand is driving bigger media deals. During the 2022-2023 season, average viewership reached 1.7 million per game across these outlets.

Ticket and suite sales, another key source of revenue, topped $2.9 billion over the 2022-2023 season. In some cases, courtside tickets cost upwards of $3,000 per seat, with a host of celebrities from Jack Nicholson to Kendall Jenner and Bad Bunny sitting close to the action.

Following next in line were local media deals, worth $1.4 billion, and team sponsorship deals, valued at $1.3 billion.

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