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Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2024

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This visual is part of our 2024 Global Forecast Series. For full access to the series, learn more here.

Prediction consensus bingo card visual of expert forecasts for 2024

Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2024

As we look ahead to 2024, there is no shortage of expert forecasts and predictions for the world’s economy, markets, geopolitics, and technology to track in this new year.

In this now fifth year of our Prediction Consensus (part of our comprehensive 2024 Global Forecast Series), we’ve summarized 25 of the most common predictions and forecasts by experts into a single visual of what’s expected to happen in 2024.

Drawing from our predictions database of over 700 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts, and more, the Prediction Consensus “bingo card” and this article offer an overview of the most cited trends and opportunities that experts are watching for the rest of the year.

This visual is from our 2024 Global Forecast Series Report:

Global Forecast Series 2024

Get full access to the series, which compiles insights from 700+ expert predictions for what will happen in 2024, by becoming a VC+ member today.

The Economy and Markets in 2024

Based on the hundreds of economic forecasts and predictions we’ve sifted through, many analysts and experts share similar views on what’s ahead for inflation, interest rates, and economic growth in 2024.

Inflation: After inflation’s steady decline across economies in 2023, many analysts see inflation continuing to cool off towards target levels. While some note that the last stretch to these targets could be the toughest, few foresee the possibility of inflation surging again like we saw in 2022.

2024 forecast on interest rate cuts by UBS

Interest Rates: With inflation largely expected to be tamed in 2024, every major bank and institution forecasts interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England by the middle of the year. Forecasts from analysts on how much rates will be cut vary between three and six cuts, with Federal Reserve board members themselves forecasting two to three cuts.

Markets: With interest rate cuts on the horizon, experts have echoed tentatively positive forecasts for both stocks and bonds in 2024. Falling rates should see bond yields fall as well, while equities should continue to benefit from the growing AI theme. Portfolio diversification is a common theme in the 2024 investment playbook, especially as geopolitical risks loom.

Real GDP Growth: The outlook for growth around the world is muted. Global GDP growth forecasts range from 2.5-3%, which is slightly lower than the 10-year average (2013-2022) of 3.1%. The U.S. is also forecasted to see slowing growth, with the IMF’s forecasts of 2.4% in 2023 moving down to 1.5% in 2024, while Europe is also expected to continue seeing slow growth at 0.9% in 2024.

Expert prediction on India and China's growth in 2024

When looking at other nations, many experts are predicting we’ll see India outpace China when it comes to real GDP growth this year, especially if the trend of manufacturing and foreign investment shifting away from China continues.

“The transition is two-sided: India is investing in infrastructure and courting foreign investment, while China is investing in aircraft carriers and turning its gaze inward to deal with youth unemployment and sectors crashing.”

Scott Galloway

Geopolitical Predictions for 2024

After the past couple of years brought geopolitics back to the forefront with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s war with Hamas, experts don’t see global tensions cooling off anytime soon. In fact, many cite further geopolitical sparks and potential escalation as their top risk to watch out for in 2024, requiring diversified and nimble positioning.

With ongoing strikes from Yemen’s Houthi militants on container ships in the Red Sea resulting in marine shipping disruptions, retaliatory U.S. strikes are now likely cementing the potential for ongoing disruption for marine shipping around the world.

Expert prediction on geopolitics for 2024

Outlooks for the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars are equally indecisive, with few to no experts foreseeing true resolutions for either conflict in 2024, and most citing further escalation and additional country involvement as the more likely scenarios.

Along with these ongoing geopolitical issues, 2024 is a key year for elections around the world. With the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, India, Mexico, and many other countries holding elections this year, there’s little stable ground in geopolitics without the potential for seismic shifts this year.

Further Boom or Regulatory Bust for AI in 2024?

After its breakout year in 2023, artificial intelligence faces new challenges in 2024 which is set to be another pivotal year for the technology.

While advances in the technology are inevitable, the less exciting reality of regulation and legal disputes around training data is already a key issue, as seen in the New York Times’ lawsuit against OpenAI. Along with this, the growing potential for malicious AI use around the many global elections this year could spur further calls for greater regulation.

Expert prediction on artificial intelligence (AI) in 2024

Experts see these topics acting as a bit of a damper on another potentially explosive year for AI product growth and distribution. Many are expecting the EU to clamp down faster and harder than the U.S. when it comes to regulation.

2024 Forecasts: Everything is Connected

While the global economy, markets, geopolitics, and technological advancements have always affected each other in various ways, in 2024 these connections feel stronger than ever.

One such example is how escalating conflicts in the Middle East are affecting shipping insurance costs and routes, which could drive up inflation again and lead central banks to hold off on cutting interest rates this year, thus affecting myriad economic factors and markets around the world.

2024 feels full of both good and bad interconnected possibilities, from forecasts around AI advancements ushering in a new bull market and golden age of productivity to the potential job disruptions it could cause that our labor markets and society might not be ready for.

Despite the world growing more polarized and geopolitically fractured in the past couple of years, these predictions and forecasts remind us of how deeply dependent the health and future of the global economy is on the interconnected nature of these factors.

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Personal Finance

Ranked: What People Value Most in a Financial Advisor

Positive reviews and recommendations are some of the least important factors—so what do people look for in a financial advisor?

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A bar chart of what people value most in a financial advisor, with the specific qualities removed to encourage people to click into the full article.

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The following content is sponsored by Morningstar

Ranked: What People Value Most in a Financial Advisor

Are advisors putting their focus where it matters? You might think that positive reviews and recommendations would be a top consideration for people choosing a financial advisor. However, other qualities appear to be much more important.

This graphic uses data from Morningstar’s Voice of the Advisor report to outline what people value most in a financial advisor. 

The Qualities Investors Value

Morningstar surveyed 400 people: 100 Caucasian women, 150 women of color, and 150 men of color. The values below show how often people chose an item as most or least important when working with an advisor.

QualityMost ImportantLeast Important
Expertise and knowledge in financial planning and investments60%11%
Personalized financial advice that meets my specific goals and needs54%16%
Ability to understand my risk tolerance and appropriately align my investments47%17%
Specialization in specific financial situations, such as retirement planning45%17%
Ability to communicate complex financial concepts in an understandable way42%22%
Transparent fee structure and pricing for my advisor’s services42%22%
Trust and rapport established during the initial meetings with my advisor36%24%
Ability to incorporate investment options that reflect my values22%41%
Positive online reviews or ratings about my advisor’s services22%46%
Recommendations from friends or family who had a positive experience with my advisor20%47%
Commitment to diversity and inclusion, making me feel comfortable and respected20%47%
Recommendations from other professionals, such as accountants or attorneys19%50%
Shares a similar background or cultural understanding10%68%

Participants were asked the following question: “On each screen, we will show you 3 items to think about when working with a financial advisor. Select which one is most important and which one is the least important of the items. You will see more than one screen and items may appear more than once.”

Enjoying this content? Dive into more insights in the Voice of the Advisor Report:

Report cover titled Four Opportunities to Elevate the Advisor-Client Relationship through Personalization with additional report pages shown. There is also a red button that says Click for exclusive insights.

Even among a survey pool that was mostly people of color, the majority of respondents didn’t think a commitment to diversity or a shared background were important.

Instead, three of the top four factors were related to personalization.

Personalization: A Key Quality in a Financial Advisor

People cared deeply about personalization regardless of gender and race. It was even more important to those with more than $250,000 in assets, suggesting that personalization may become more critical as a person’s portfolio value increases.

Even investors not currently working with an advisor and non-investors noted that personalization would be a top quality they would look for in a financial advisor.

Within personalization, people noted risk management was a very important element. Financial advisors can highlight their ability to tailor financial plans based on each person’s risk tolerance in order to attract clients.

Looking for tips on how to grow your advisory business? Get insights on what investors want, and how other advisors are evolving, in Morningstar’s Voice of the Advisor report.

Report cover titled Four Opportunities to Elevate the Advisor-Client Relationship through Personalization with additional report pages shown. There is also a yellow button that says get the free report now.

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