How the S&P 500 Performed During Major Market Crashes
Like spectacular market peaks, market crashes have been a persistent feature of the S&P 500 throughout time.
Still, the forces underpinning each rise and fall are often less clear. Take the COVID-19 crash, for example. Despite lagging economic growth and historic unemployment levels, the S&P 500 bounced back 47% in just five months, in a stunning reversal.
Drawing data from Macrotrends, the above infographic compares six historic market crashes—examining the length of their recoveries and the contextual factors influencing their durations.
The Big Picture
How does the current COVID-19 crash of 2020 stack up against previous market crashes?
|Title||Start — End Date||Duration (Trading Days)||% Drop|
|Black Tuesday / Great Crash*||Sep 16, 1929 — Sept 22, 1954||300 months (7,256 days)||-86%|
|Nixon Shock / OPEC Oil Embargo||Jan 11, 1973 — Jul 17, 1980||90 months (1,899 days)||-48%|
|Black Monday**||Oct 13, 1987 — May 15, 1989||19 months (402 days)||-29%|
|Dot Com Bubble||Mar 24, 2000 — May 30, 2007||86 months (1,808 days)||-49%|
|Global Financial Crisis||Oct 9, 2007 — Mar 28, 2013||65 months (1,379 days)||-57%|
|COVID-19 Crash***||Feb 19, 2020 — Ongoing||5 months+ (117+ days)||-34%|
Price returns, based on nominal prices
*Black Tuesday occurred about a month after the market peak on Oct 29, 1929
**The market hit a peak on Oct 13th, prior to Black Monday on Oct 19,1987
***As of market close Aug 4, 2020
By far, the longest recovery of this list followed the devastation of Black Tuesday, while the shortest was Black Monday of 1987—where it took 19 months for the market to fully recover.
Let’s take a closer look at each market crash to navigate the economic climate at the time.
After the Fall
What were some factors that can help provide context into the crash?
1929: Black Tuesday / Great Crash
Following Black Tuesday in 1929, the U.S. stock market took 7,256 days—equal to about 25 years—to fully recover from peak to peak. In response to the market crisis, a coalition of banks bought blocks of shares, but with negligible effects. In turn, investors fled the market.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Board rose the discount lending rate to 6%. As a result, borrowing costs climbed for consumers, businesses, and the central banks themselves. The tightening of rates led to unintended consequences, with the economy capitulating into the Great Depression. Of course, factors that contributed to its prolonged recovery have been debated, but these are just a few of the actions that had implications at the time.
1973: Nixon Shock / OPEC Oil Embargo
The Nixon Shock corresponded with a series of economic measures in response to high inflation. Soaring inflation devastated stocks, consuming real returns on capital. Around the same time, the oil embargo also occurred, with OPEC member countries halting oil exports to the U.S. and its allies, causing a severe spike in oil prices. It took seven years for the S&P 500 to return to its previous peak.
1987: Black Monday
While the exact cause of the 1987 crash has been debated, key factors include both the advent of computerized trading systems and overvalued markets.
To curtail the impact of the crash, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan aggressively slashed interest rates, repeatedly promising to take great lengths to stabilize the market. The S&P took under two years to recover.
2000: Dot Com Bubble
To curb the stratospheric rise of U.S. tech stocks, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates five times in eight months, sending the markets into a tailspin. Virtually $5 trillion in market value evaporated.
However, a number of well-known companies survived, including eBay and Amazon. At the time, Amazon’s stock price cratered from $107 to $11 while eBay lost 75% of its market value. Meanwhile, a number of Dot Com flops included Pets.com, WorldCom, and FreeInternet.com.
2007: Global Financial Crisis
Relaxed credit policies, the proliferation of subprime mortgages, credit default swaps, and commercial mortgage-backed securities were all factors behind the market turmoil of 2007. As banks carved out risky loans packaged in opaque tranches of debt, risk in the market accelerated.
Similar to 1987, the Federal Reserve initiated a number of rescue actions. Interest rates were brought down to historical levels and $498 billion in bailouts were injected into the financial system. Crisis-related bailouts extended to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the Federal Housing Administration, and others.
2020: COVID-19 Crash
In 2020, historic fiscal stimulus measures along with trillions in Fed financing have factored heavily in its swift reversal. The result has been one of the steepest rallies in S&P 500 history.
At the same time, the economy is mirroring Great Depression-level unemployment numbers, reaching 14.7% in April 2020. In short, this starkly exposes the sharp disconnect between the markets and broader economy.
History offers many lessons, and in this case, a view into the shape of a post-coronavirus market recovery.
Although the stock market is likely rallying off Fed liquidity, investor optimism, and the promise of potential vaccines, it’s interesting to note that the trajectory of this crash in some ways resembles the initial rebound shown during the Great Depression—which means we may not be out of the woods quite yet.
As the S&P 500 edges 2% shy of its February peak, could the market post a hastened recovery—or is a protracted downturn in the cards?
This graphic has been inspired by this Reddit post.
The New Rules of Leadership: 5 Forces Shaping Expectations of CEOs
This infographic delves into five major forces reshaping our world and the new rules of leadership that CEOs should follow as a result.
It’s common knowledge that CEOs assume a long list of roles and responsibilities.
But in today’s world, more and more people rely on them to go beyond their day-to-day responsibilities and advocate for broader social change. In fact, a number of external forces are changing how leaders are now expected to behave.
How can leaders juggle these evolving expectations while successfully leading their companies into the future?
The New Rules of Leadership
This infographic from bestselling author Vince Molinaro explores five drivers reshaping our world that leaders must pay attention to in order to bring about real change.
How is the World Being Reshaped?
Leaders need to constantly stay one step ahead of the transformative forces that impact businesses on a broader scale.
Below we outline five key drivers that are changing what it means to be a leader in today’s world:
1. Transformative Technologies
Over the last number of decades, several technologies have emerged that could either accelerate the disruption of companies, or provide them with new opportunities for growth. According to KPMG, 72% of CEOs believe the next three years will be more critical for their industry than the previous 50 years.
For example, artificial intelligence (AI), can now provide companies with insights into what motivates their employees and how they can help them succeed. IBM’s AI predictive attrition program can even predict when employees are about to quit—saving them roughly $300 million in retention costs.
Leaders must accept that the future will be mediated by technology, and how they respond could determine whether or not their organization survives entirely.
2. Geopolitical Instability
Geopolitical risks—such as trade disputes or civil unrest—can have a catastrophic impact on a business’s bottom line, no matter its industry. Although 52% of CEOs believe the geopolitical landscape is having a significant impact on their companies, only a small portion say they have taken active steps to address these risks.
By being more sensitive to the world around them, leaders can anticipate and potentially mitigate these risks. Extensive research into geopolitical trends and leveraging the appropriate experts could support a geopolitical risk strategy, and alleviate some of the potential repercussions.
3. Revolutionizing the Working Environment
As the future of work looms, leaders are being presented with the opportunity to reimagine the inner workings of their company. But right now, they are fighting against a wide spectrum of predictions around what they should expect, with estimations surrounding the automation risk of jobs ranging from 5% to 61% as a prime example.
While physical, repetitive, or basic cognitive tasks carry a higher risk of automation, the critical work that remains will require human interaction, creativity, and judgment.
Leaders should avoid getting caught up in the hype regarding the future of work, and simply focus on helping their employees navigate the next decade.
By creating an inspiring work environment and investing in retraining and reskilling, leaders can nurture employee well-being and create a sense of connectedness and resilience in the workplace.
4. Delivering Diversity
Diversity and inclusion can serve as a path to engaging employees, and leaders are being asked to step up and deliver like never before. A staggering 77% of people feel that CEOs are responsible for leading change on important social issues like racial inequality.
But while delivering diversity, equity, and inclusion seems to be growing in importance, many companies are struggling to understand the weight of this issue.
An example of this is Noah’s Ark Paradox, which describes the belief that hiring “two of every kind” creates a diverse work environment. In reality, this creates a false sense of inclusion because the voices of these people may never actually be heard.
Modern day leaders must create a place of belonging where everyone—regardless of gender, race, sexual orientation, ability, or age—is listened to.
5. Repurposing Corporations
The drivers listed above ladder up to the fact that society is looking to businesses to help solve important issues, and leaders are the ones being held accountable.
With 84% of people expecting CEOs to inform conversations and policy debates on one or more pressing issues, from job automation to the impact of globalization, CEOs have the potential to transform their organization by galvanizing employees on the topics that matter to them.
For a long time, the purpose of corporations was purely to create value for shareholders. Now, leaders are obligated to follow a set of five commitments:
- Deliver value to customers
- Invest in employees
- Deal fairly and ethically with suppliers
- Support communities
- Generate long-term value for shareholders
Ultimately, these five commitments build currency for trust, which is critical for sustained growth and building a productive and satisfied workforce.
Lead the Future
If leaders understand the context they operate in, they can identify opportunities that could fuel their organization’s growth, or alternatively, help them pivot in the face of impending threats.
But organizations must invest in the development of their leaders so that they can see the bigger picture—and many are failing to do so.
By recognizing the new rules of leadership, CEOs and managers can successfully lead their organizations, and the world, into a new and uncertain future.
3D Map: The U.S. Cities With the Highest Economic Output
The total U.S. GDP stands at a whopping $21 trillion, but which metro areas contribute to the most in terms of economic output?
3D Map: The U.S. Cities With the Highest Economic Output
At over $21 trillion, the U.S. holds the title of the world’s largest economy—accounting for almost a quarter of the global GDP total. However, the fact is that a few select cities are responsible for a large share of the country’s total economic output.
This unique 3D map from HowMuch puts into perspective the city corridors which contribute the most to the American economy at large.
Top 10 Metros by Economic Output
The visualization pulls the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, 2018), and ranks the top 10 metro area economies in the country.
One thing is immediately clear—the New York metro area dwarfs all other metro area by a large margin. This cluster, which includes Newark and Jersey City, is bigger than the metro areas surrounding Los Angeles and Chicago combined.
|Rank||Metro Area||State codes||GDP (2018)|
|#1||New York-Newark-Jersey City||NY-NJ-PA||$1.77T|
|#2||Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim||CA||$1.05T|
|#7||Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land||TX||$0.48T|
Coming in fourth place is San Francisco on the West Coast, with $549 billion in total economic output each year. Meanwhile in the South, the Dallas metroplex brings in $478 billion, placing it sixth in the ranks.
It’s worth noting that using individual metro areas is one way to view things, but geographers also think of urban life in broader terms as well. Given the proximity of cities in the Northeast, places like Boston, NYC, and Washington, D.C. are sometimes grouped into a single megaregion. When viewed this way, the corridor is actually the world’s largest in economic terms.
U.S. States: Sum of Its Parts
Zooming out beyond just these massive cities demonstrates the combined might of the U.S. in another unique way. Tallying all the urban and rural areas, every state economy can be compared to the size of entire countries.
According to the American Enterprise Institute, the state of California brings in a GDP that rivals the United Kingdom in its entirety.
By this same measure, Texas competes with Canada in terms of pure economic output, despite a total land area that’s 15 times less that of the Great White North.
With COVID-19 continuing to impact parts of the global economy disproportionately, how will these kinds of economic comparisons hold up in the future?
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