Markets
How Global Central Banks are Responding to COVID-19, in One Chart
How Global Central Banks are Responding to COVID-19
When times get tough, central banks typically act as the first line of defense.
However, modern economies are incredibly complex—and calamities like the 2008 financial crisis have already pushed traditional policy tools to their limits. In response, some central banks have turned to newer, more unconventional strategies such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates to do their work.
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks are once again taking decisive action. To help us understand what’s being done, today’s infographic uses data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to compare the policy responses of 29 systemically important economies.
The Central Bank Toolkit
To begin, here are brief descriptions of each policy, which the IMF sorts into four categories:
1. Monetary Policies
Policies designed to control the money supply and promote stable economic growth.
Policy Name | Intended Effect |
---|---|
Policy rate cuts | Stimulates economic activity by decreasing the cost of borrowing |
Central bank liquidity support | Provides distressed markets with additional liquidity, often in the form of loans |
Central bank swap lines | Agreements between the U.S. Fed and foreign central banks to enhance the provision of U.S. dollar liquidity |
Central bank asset purchase schemes | Uses newly-created currency to buy large quantities of financial assets, such as government bonds. This increases the money supply and decreases longer-term rates |
2. External Policies
Policies designed to mitigate the effects of external economic shocks.
Policy Name | Intended Effect |
---|---|
Foreign currency intervention | Stabilizes the national currency by intervening in the foreign exchange market |
Capital flow measures | Restrictions, such as tariffs and volume limits, on the flow of foreign capital in and out of a country |
3. Financial Policies for Banks
Policies designed to support the banking system in times of distress.
Policy Name | Intended Effect |
---|---|
Easing of the countercyclical capital buffer | A reduction in the amount of liquid assets required to protect banks against cyclical risks |
Easing of systemic risk or domestic capital buffer | A reduction in the amount of liquid assets required to protect banks against unforeseen risks |
Use of capital buffers | Allows banks to use their capital buffers to enhance relief measures |
Use of liquidity buffers | Allows banks to use their liquidity buffers to meet unexpected cash flow needs |
Adjustments to loan loss provision requirements | The level of provisions required to protect banks against borrower defaults are eased |
4. Financial Policies for Borrowers
Policies designed to improve access to capital as well as provide relief for borrowers.
Policy Name | Intended Effect |
---|---|
State loans or credit guarantees | Ensures businesses of all sizes have adequate access to capital |
Restructuring of loan terms or moratorium on payments | Provides borrowers with financial assistance by altering terms or deferring payments |
Putting Policies Into Practice
Let’s take a closer look at how these policy tools are being applied in the real world, particularly in the context of how central banks are battling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
1. Monetary Policies
So far, many central banks have enacted expansionary monetary policies to boost slowing economies throughout the pandemic.
One widely used tool has been policy rate cuts, or cuts to interest rates. The theory behind rate cuts is relatively straightforward—a central bank places downward pressure on short-term interest rates, decreasing the overall cost of borrowing. This ideally stimulates business investment and consumer spending.
If short-term rates are already near zero, reducing them further may have little to no effect. For this reason, central banks have leaned on asset purchase schemes (quantitative easing) to place downward pressure on longer-term rates. This policy has been a cornerstone of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) COVID-19 response, in which newly-created currency is used to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of assets such as government bonds.
When the media says the Fed is “printing money”, this is what they’re actually referring to.
2. External Policies
External policies were less relied upon by the systemically important central banks covered in today’s graphic.
That’s because foreign currency interventions, central bank operations designed to influence exchange rates, are typically used by developing economies only. This is likely due to the higher exchange rate volatility experienced by these types of economies.
For example, as investors flee emerging markets, Brazil has seen its exchange rate (BRL/USD) tumble 30% this year.
In an attempt to prevent further depreciation, the Central Bank of Brazil has used its foreign currency reserves to increase the supply of USD in the open market. These measures include purchases of $8.8B in USD-denominated Brazilian government bonds.
3. Financial Policies for Banks
Central banks are often tasked with regulating the commercial banking industry, meaning they have the authority to ease restrictions during economic crises.
One option is to ease the countercyclical capital buffer. During periods of economic growth (and increased lending), banks must accumulate reserves as a safety net for when the economy eventually contracts. Easing this restriction can allow them to increase their lending capacity.
Banks need to be in a position to continue financing households and corporates experiencing temporary difficulties.
—Andrea Enria, Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board
The European Central Bank (ECB) is a large proponent of these policies. In March, it also allowed its supervised banks to make use of their liquidity buffers—liquid assets held by a bank to protect against unexpected cash flow needs.
4. Financial Policies for Borrowers
Borrowers have also received significant support. In the U.S., government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have announced several COVID-19 relief measures:
- Deferred payments for 12 months
- Late fees waived
- Suspended foreclosures and evictions for 60 days
The U.S. Fed has also created a number of facilities to support the flow of credit, including:
- Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility: Purchasing bonds directly from highly-rated corporations to help them sustain their operations.
- Main Street Lending: Purchasing new or expanded loans from small and mid-sized businesses. Businesses with up to 15,000 employees or up to $5B in annual revenue are eligible.
- Municipal Liquidity Facility: Purchasing short-term debt directly from state and municipal governments. Counties with at least 500,000 residents and cities with at least 250,000 residents are eligible.
Longer-term Implications
Central bank responses to COVID-19 have been wide-reaching, to say the least. Yet, some of these policies come at the cost of burgeoning debt-levels, and critics are alarmed.
In Europe, the ECB has come under scrutiny for its asset purchases since 2015. A ruling from Germany’s highest court labeled the program illegal, claiming it disadvantages German taxpayers (Germany makes larger contributions to the ECB than other member states). This ruling is not concerned with pandemic-related asset purchases, but it does present implications for future use.
The U.S. Fed, which runs a similar program, has seen its balance sheet swell to nearly $7 trillion since the outbreak. Implications include a growing reliance on the Fed to fund government programs, and the high difficulty associated with safely reducing these holdings.
Markets
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.


How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.
We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.
Disinflation vs. Deflation
The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.
Time Period | March 1980-July 1983 | June 2022-April 2023* |
---|---|---|
Inflation at Start of Cycle | 14.8% | 9.1% |
Inflation at End of Cycle | 2.5% | 4.9% |
* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.
A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?
Looking to History
There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.
With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.
Equity Issuance
Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.
Year | Deal Value |
---|---|
1980 | $2.6B |
1981 | $5.0B |
1982 | $3.6B |
1983 | $13.5B |
1984 | $2.5B |
1985 | $12.0B |
1986 | $24.2B |
1987 | $24.9B |
1988 | $16.9B |
1989 | $12.9B |
1990 | $13.4B |
1991 | $45.2B |
1992 | $50.3B |
1993 | $95.3B |
1994 | $63.7B |
1995 | $79.7B |
1996 | $108.7B |
1997 | $106.5B |
1998 | $97.0B |
1999 | $142.8B |
2000 | $156.5B |
Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.
Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.
Debt Issuance
Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.
Year | Deal Value | Interest Rate |
---|---|---|
1980 | $4.5B | 11.4% |
1981 | $6.7B | 13.9% |
1982 | $14.5B | 13.0% |
1983 | $8.1B | 11.1% |
1984 | $25.7B | 12.5% |
1985 | $46.4B | 10.6% |
1986 | $47.1B | 7.7% |
1987 | $26.4B | 8.4% |
1988 | $24.7B | 8.9% |
1989 | $29.9B | 8.5% |
1990 | $40.2B | 8.6% |
1991 | $41.6B | 7.9% |
1992 | $50.0B | 7.0% |
1993 | $487.8B | 5.9% |
1994 | $526.4B | 7.1% |
1995 | $632.7B | 6.6% |
1996 | $906.0B | 6.4% |
1997 | $1.3T | 6.4% |
1998 | $1.8T | 5.3% |
1999 | $1.8T | 5.7% |
2000 | $2.8T | 6.0% |
Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.
As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.
It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.
Then vs. Now
Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.
Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.
January 1981 | April 2023* | |
---|---|---|
Inflation Rate Annual | 11.8% | 4.9% |
Inflation Expectations Next 12 Months | 9.5% | 4.5% |
Interest Rate 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 12.6% | 3.7% |
Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted | 7.5% | 3.4% |
Nominal Wage Growth Annual, Seasonally Adjusted | 9.3% | 5.0% |
After-Tax Corporate Profits As Share of Gross Value Added | 9.1% | 13.8% |
* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.
What to Consider During Disinflation
Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.
- High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
- High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
- Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.
In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.

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