Mapped: Where Will The Top 10 Cities Be in 2035?
Cities are the engines of the modern economy. Over half of the world now lives in urban areas, and urbanization continues to shape the trajectory of global growth in unprecedented ways.
However, the most important cities of today may be quite different than those leading the charge in the future. This week’s chart looks forward to 2035, using a report by Oxford Economics to forecast the top 10 cities by measures of economic size, population, and GDP growth rate.
Each map is categorized by one of these metrics—and depending on which one you look at, the leaders vary greatly.
Top 10 Cities by Projected GDP
The top 10 cities by gross domestic product (GDP) in 2035 will be fairly widespread. Three cities are expected to be in the U.S.—New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. The Big Apple’s forecasted $2.5 trillion GDP likely stems from its strong banking and finance sectors.
|#1||New York||🇺🇸 United States||$2.5T|
|#3||Los Angeles||🇺🇸 United States||$1.5T|
|#4||London||🇬🇧 United Kingdom||$1.3T|
|#8||Chicago||🇺🇸 United States||$1.0T|
Four cities will be found in China, while London, Paris, and Tokyo are set to round out the last three. Interestingly, Tokyo is the #1 city today, with an estimated $1.6 trillion GDP in 2019.
Altogether, these top 10 cities will contribute an impressive $13.5 trillion in GDP by 2035. Clusters of such metropolitan areas are typically considered megaregions—which account for a large share of global economic activity.
Top 10 Cities by Future Population
Next, it’s clear that top cities by population will follow a distinct global distribution. By 2035, the most highly-populated cities will shift towards the East, with seven cities located in Asia.
|#1||Jakarta||🇮🇩 Indonesia||38 million|
|#2||Tokyo||🇯🇵 Japan||37.8 million|
|#3||Chongqing||🇨🇳 China||32.2 million|
|#4||Dhaka||🇧🇩 Bangladesh||31.2 million|
|#5||Shanghai||🇨🇳 China||25.3 million|
|#6||Karachi||🇵🇰 Pakistan||24.8 million|
|#7||Kinshasa||🇨🇩 DR Congo||24.7 million|
|#8||Lagos||🇳🇬 Nigeria||24.2 million|
|#9||Mexico City||🇲🇽 Mexico||23.5 million|
|#10||Mumbai||🇮🇳 India||23.1 million|
While Jakarta’s 38 million-strong population is expected to emerge in first place, the city may not retain its status as Indonesia’s capital for much longer. Rising sea levels and poor water infrastructure management mean that Jakarta is rapidly sinking—and the government now plans to pivot the capital to Borneo island.
On the African continent, Kinshasa and Lagos are already among the world’s largest megacities (home to over 10 million people), and will hold top spots by the turn of the century.
Population and demographics can be major assets to a country’s growth. For example, India’s burgeoning working-age demographics will present a unique advantage—and the country is projected to contain several of the fastest growing cities in the coming years.
Top 10 Cities By Estimated Annual GDP Growth
When comparing cities based on their pace of economic growth, there are some clear standouts. Average annual GDP growth across cities is 2.6%, but the top 10 surpass this by a fair amount.
The kicker? All of 2035’s major players will be found in Asia: four of the fastest-growing cities will be in mainland China, another four in India, and the last two in Southeast Asia.
At #1 by 2035 is Bangalore with an expected 8.5% annual growth forecast—its high-quality talent pool makes the city a breeding ground for tech startups. Jakarta makes another appearance, with its projected 5.2% growth at double the city average.
Shanghai finds its way onto all three lists. The commercial capital hosts the world’s busiest port, and one of China’s two major stock exchanges. These sectors could help boost Shanghai’s annual GDP growth to 5% in 2035.
Looking to the Future
Of course, any number of variables could impact these 2035 projections, from financial recessions and political uncertainty, to rapid urbanization and technological advances.
But one thing’s certain—in the coming decades, cities are where many of these factors will converge and play out.
All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization (2022)
From the wealth held to billionaires to all debt in the global financial system, we look at the vast universe of money and markets in 2022.
All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization
The era of easy money is now officially over.
For 15 years, policymakers have tried to stimulate the global economy through money creation, zero interest-rate policies, and more recently, aggressive COVID fiscal stimulus.
With capital at near-zero costs over this stretch, investors started to place more value on cash flows in the distant future. Assets inflated and balance sheets expanded, and money inevitably chased more speculative assets like NFTs, crypto, or unproven venture-backed startups.
But the free money party has since ended, after persistent inflation prompted the sudden reversal of many of these policies. And as Warren Buffett says, it’s only when the tide goes out do you get to see “who’s been swimming naked.”
Measuring Money and Markets in 2022
Every time we publish this visualization, our common unit of measurement is a two-dimensional box with a value of $100 billion.
Even though you need many of these to convey the assets on the balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve, or the private wealth held by the world’s billionaires, it’s quite amazing to think what actually fits within this tiny building block of measurement:
Our little unit of measurement is enough to pay for the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, while also buying every team in the NHL and digging FTX out of its financial hole several times over.
Here’s an overview of all the items we have listed in this year’s visualization:
|SBF (Peak Net Worth)||$26 billion||Bloomberg||Now sits at <$1B|
|Pro Sports Teams||$340 billion||Forbes||Major pro teams in North America|
|Cryptocurrency||$760 billion||CoinMarketCap||Peaked at $2.8T in 2021|
|Ukraine GDP||$130 billion||World Bank||Comparable to GDP of Mississippi|
|Russia GDP||$1.8 trillion||World Bank||The world's 11th largest economy|
|Annual Military Spending||$2.1 trillion||SIPRI||2021 data|
|Physical currency||$8.0 trillion||BIS||2020 data|
|Gold||$11.5 trillion||World Gold Council||There are 205,238 tonnes of gold in existence|
|Billionaires||$12.7 trillion||Forbes||Sum of fortunes of all 2,668 billionaires|
|Central Bank Assets||$28.0 trillion||Trading Economics||Fed, BoJ, Bank of China, and Eurozone only|
|S&P 500||$36.0 trillion||Slickcharts||Nov 20, 2022|
|China GDP||$17.7 trillion||World Bank|
|U.S. GDP||$23.0 trillion||World Bank|
|Narrow Money Supply||$49.0 trillion||Trading Economics||Includes US, China, Euro Area, Japan only|
|Broad Money Supply||$82.7 trillion||Trading Economics||Includes US, China, Euro Area, Japan only|
|Global Equities||$95.9 trillion||WFE||Latest available 2022 data|
|Global Debt||$300.1 trillion||IIF||Q2 2022|
|Global Real Estate||$326.5 trillion||Savills||2020 data|
|Global Private Wealth||$463.6 trillion||Credit Suisse||2022 report|
|Derivatives (Market)||$12.4 trillion||BIS|
|Derivatives (Notional)||$600 trillion||BIS|
Has the Dust Settled Yet?
Through previous editions of our All the World’s Money and Markets visualization, we’ve created snapshots of the world’s assets and markets at different points in time.
For example, in our 2017 edition of this visualization, Apple’s market capitalization was only $807 billion, and all crypto assets combined for $173 billion. The global debt total was at $215 trillion.
|Asset||2017 edition||2022 edition||Change (%)|
|Apple market cap||$807 billion||$2.3 trillion||+185%|
|Crypto||$173 billion||$760 billion||+339%|
|Fed Balance Sheet||$4.5 trillion||$8.7 trillion||+93%|
|Stock Markets||$73 trillion||$95.9 trillion||+31%|
|Global Debt||$215 trillion||$300 trillion||+40%|
And in just five years, Apple nearly quadrupled in size (it peaked at $3 trillion in January 2022), and crypto also expanded into a multi-trillion dollar market until it was brought back to Earth through the 2022 crash and subsequent FTX implosion.
Meanwhile, global debt continues to accumulate—growing by $85 trillion in the five-year period.
With interest rates expected to continue to rise, companies making cost cuts, and policymakers reining in spending and borrowing, today is another unique snapshot in time.
Now that the easy money era is over, where do things go from here?
Ranked: The World’s 100 Biggest Pension Funds
The world’s 100 largest pension funds are worth over $17 trillion in total. Which ones are the biggest, and where are they located?
Ranked: The World’s 100 Biggest Pension Funds
View the high-resolution of the infographic by clicking here.
Despite economic uncertainty, pension funds saw relatively strong growth in 2021. The world’s 100 biggest pension funds are worth over $17 trillion in total, an increase of 8.5% over the previous year.
This graphic uses data from the Thinking Ahead Institute to rank the world’s biggest pension funds, and where they are located.
What is a Pension Fund?
A pension fund is a fund that is designed to provide retirement income. This ranking covers four different types:
- Sovereign funds: Funds controlled directly by the state. This ranking only includes sovereign funds that are established by national authorities.
- Public sector funds: Funds that cover public sector workers, such as government employees and teachers, in provincial or state sponsored plans.
- Private independent funds: Funds controlled by private sector organizations that are authorized to manage pension plans from different employers.
- Corporate funds: Funds that cover workers in company sponsored pension plans.
Among the largest funds, public sector funds are the most common.
The Largest Pension Funds, Ranked
Here are the top 100 pension funds, organized from largest to smallest.
|1||Government Pension Investment Fund||🇯🇵 Japan||$1.7T|
|2||Government Pension Fund||🇳🇴 Norway||$1.4T|
|3||National Pension||🇰🇷 South Korea||$798.0B|
|4||Federal Retirement Thrift||🇺🇸 U.S.||$774.2B|
|6||California Public Employees||🇺🇸 U.S.||$496.8B|
|7||Canada Pension||🇨🇦 Canada||$426.7B|
|8||National Social Security||🇨🇳 China||$406.8B|
|9||Central Provident Fund||🇸🇬 Singapore||$375.0B|
|11||California State Teachers||🇺🇸 U.S.||$313.9B|
|12||New York State Common||🇺🇸 U.S.||$267.8B|
|13||New York City Retirement||🇺🇸 U.S.||$266.7B|
|14||Local Government Officials||🇯🇵 Japan||$248.6B|
|15||Employees Provident Fund||🇲🇾 Malaysia||$242.6B|
|16||Florida State Board||🇺🇸 U.S.||$213.8B|
|17||Texas Teachers||🇺🇸 U.S.||$196.7B|
|18||Ontario Teachers||🇨🇦 Canada||$191.1B|
|19||National Wealth Fund||🇷🇺 Russia||$180.7B|
|21||Labor Pension Fund||🇹🇼 Taiwan||$168.9B|
|22||Washington State Board||🇺🇸 U.S.||$161.5B|
|23||Public Institute for Social Security||🇰🇼 Kuwait||$160.0B|
|25||Wisconsin Investment Board||🇺🇸 U.S.||$147.9B|
|26||Future Fund||🇦🇺 Australia||$147.9B|
|28||Employees' Provident||🇮🇳 India||$145.0B|
|29||New York State Teachers||🇺🇸 U.S.||$144.4B|
|30||North Carolina||🇺🇸 U.S.||$137.1B|
|32||GEPF||🇿🇦 South Africa||$129.1B|
|33||California University||🇺🇸 U.S.||$125.3B|
|34||Bayerische Versorgungskammer||🇩🇪 Germany||$122.0B|
|35||Ohio Public Employees||🇺🇸 U.S.||$121.6B|
|37||Public Service Pension Plan||🇨🇦 Canada||$117.9B|
|38||National Federation of Mutual Aid||🇯🇵 Japan||$117.1B|
|39||Metaal/tech. Bedrijven||🇳🇱 Netherlands||$115.8B|
|41||Universities Superannuation||🇬🇧 UK||$111.2B|
|42||Virginia Retirement||🇺🇸 U.S.||$110.0B|
|43||Pension Fund Association||🇯🇵 Japan||$109.8B|
|44||Raytheon Technologies||🇺🇸 U.S.||$108.9B|
|45||Michigan Retirement||🇺🇸 U.S.||$108.0B|
|46||Aware Super||🇦🇺 Australia||$107.5B|
|47||New Jersey||🇺🇸 U.S.||$104.5B|
|48||Minnesota State Board||🇺🇸 U.S.||$102.9B|
|49||PFA Pension||🇩🇰 Denmark||$102.7B|
|51||Georgia Teachers||🇺🇸 U.S.||$100.9B|
|52||Oregon Public Employees||🇺🇸 U.S.||$100.4B|
|53||Massachusetts PRIM||🇺🇸 U.S.||$98.5B|
|55||General Motors||🇺🇸 U.S.||$96.1B|
|56||Ontario Municipal Employees||🇨🇦 Canada||$95.7B|
|57||Ohio State Teachers||🇺🇸 U.S.||$95.1B|
|58||AP Fonden 7||🇸🇪 Sweden||$94.4B|
|59||Healthcare of Ontario||🇨🇦 Canada||$90.5B|
|60||General Electric||🇺🇸 U.S.||$90.5B|
|61||Employees' Pension Fund||🇮🇳 India||$89.5B|
|64||United Nations Joint Staff||🇺🇸 U.S.||$86.2B|
|65||Lockheed Martin||🇺🇸 U.S.||$85.7B|
|66||Quebec Pension||🇨🇦 Canada||$81.4B|
|67||National Public Service||🇯🇵 Japan||$79.9B|
|68||Tennessee Consolidated||🇺🇸 U.S.||$79.0B|
|69||Royal Bank of Scotland Group||🇬🇧 UK||$78.3B|
|70||Bank of America||🇺🇸 U.S.||$76.3B|
|71||BT Group||🇬🇧 UK||$74.3B|
|75||Los Angeles County Employees||🇺🇸 U.S.||$72.7B|
|76||Quebec Government & Public||🇨🇦 Canada||$72.4B|
|78||Northrop Grumman||🇺🇸 U.S.||$72.0B|
|79||Pennsylvania School Employees||🇺🇸 U.S.||$70.4B|
|80||Lloyds Banking Group||🇬🇧 UK||$69.7B|
|82||Colorado Employees||🇺🇸 U.S.||$68.6B|
|83||Maryland State Retirement||🇺🇸 U.S.||$68.5B|
|84||AMF Pension||🇸🇪 Sweden||$67.3B|
|86||Wells Fargo||🇺🇸 U.S.||$66.0B|
|89||Illinois Teachers||🇺🇸 U.S.||$64.0B|
|90||J.P. Morgan Chase||🇺🇸 U.S.||$62.8B|
|91||Electricity Supply Pension||🇬🇧 UK||$62.5B|
|93||Nevada Public Employees||🇺🇸 U.S.||$58.8B|
|94||B.C. Municipal||🇨🇦 Canada||$58.7B|
|95||AP Fonden 4||🇸🇪 Sweden||$57.7B|
|96||Missouri Schools & Education||🇺🇸 U.S.||$57.0B|
|97||AP Fonden 3||🇸🇪 Sweden||$55.9B|
|98||Social Insurance Funds||🇻🇳 Vietnam||$55.7B|
|99||Organization for Workers||🇯🇵 Japan||$55.6B|
|100||Illinois Municipal||🇺🇸 U.S.||$54.9B|
U.S. fund data are as of Sep. 30, 2021, and non-U.S. fund data are as of Dec. 31, 2021. There are some exceptions as noted in the graphic footnotes.
Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is the largest in the ranking for the 21st year in a row. For a time, the fund was the largest holder of domestic stocks in Japan, though the Bank of Japan has since taken that title. Given its enormous size, investors closely follow the GPIF’s actions. For instance, the fund made headlines for deciding to start investing in startups, because the move could entice other pensions to make similar investments.
America is home to 47 funds on the list, including the largest public sector fund: the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), overseen by the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board. Because of its large financial influence, both political parties have been accused of using it as a political tool. Democrats have pushed to divest assets in fossil fuel companies, while Republicans have proposed blocking investment in Chinese-owned companies.
Russia’s National Wealth Fund comes in at number 19 on the list. The fund is designed to support the public pension system and help balance the budget as needed. With Russia’s economy facing difficulties amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the government has also used it as a rainy day fund. For instance, Russia has set aside $23 billion from the fund to replace foreign aircraft with domestic models, because Western sanctions have made it difficult to source replacement parts for foreign planes.
The Future of Pension Funds
The biggest pension funds can have a large influence in the market because of their size. Of course, they are also responsible for providing retirement income to millions of people. Pension funds face a variety of challenges in order to reach their goals:
- Geopolitical conflict creates volatility and uncertainty
- High inflation and low interest rates (relative to long-term averages) limit return potential
- Aging populations mean more withdrawals and less fund contributions
Some pension funds are turning to alternative assets, such as private equity, in pursuit of more diversification and higher returns. Of course, these investments can also carry more risk.
Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, number 18 on the list, invested $95 million in the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX. The plan made the investment through its venture growth platform, to “gain small-scale exposure to an emerging area in the financial technology sector.”
In this case, the investment’s failure is expected to have a minimal impact given it only made up 0.05% of the plan’s net assets. However, it does highlight the challenges pension funds face to generate sufficient returns in a variety of macroeconomic environments.
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