Ray Dalio has reached the part of his life where he is giving back.
Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates out of his apartment in 1975, and now the long-running hedge fund is recognized as the world’s largest by assets under management (AUM) with $122.2 billion, and as the fifth most important private company in the United States by Fortune magazine.
However, since 2011, the billionaire has passed the baton for the role of CEO at Bridgewater – and he’s also been focused on passing on his knowledge as well.
The Knowledge Baton
Most recently, Ray Dalio has been praised for releasing his book entitled Principles: Life and Work, where he outlines the principles that have guided his impressive success with Bridgewater.
Just as timeless, however, is this 30 minute animated video that he and Bridgewater released a few years ago, which gives their unique template for how the global economy works. It’s possible that you may have seen this before – but if not, it can be a useful tool to understand how the pieces fit together.
Dalio starts at the micro level, showing how individual transactions are part of the overall economic machine.
Then, using human nature and history as a guide, Dalio reduces the complex global economy down to just three major forces that must be understood.
Three Major Forces
Dalio says this model has guided Bridgewater for over 30 years, and that there are three major forces that shape the economy:
1. Productivity Growth
Productivity growth, which is measured as a percentage of GDP, grows over time as knowledge, technology, and innovations help to raise our productivity and living standards.
2. Short-Term Debt Cycle
Usually lasting 5-8 years, the short-term debt cycle is a repeating pattern that occurs as credit expands and contracts.
3. Long-Term Debt Cycle
Usually lasting 75-100 years, the long-term debt cycle usually ends in a period of extreme deleveraging, where global debt is unsustainable and asset prices fall.
Based on Dalio’s model and his concerns about the abuse of money printing by central banks, it’s clear why he routinely holds gold for about 5-10% of his personal portfolio, as well.
Rules of Thumb
The video ends with Dalio giving three rules of thumb – takeaways that make sense for individuals, companies, and policymakers.
Rule #1. Don’t have debt rise faster than income
Your debt burdens will eventually crush you.
Rule #2. Don’t have income rise faster than productivity
You’ll eventually become uncompetitive.
Rule #3. Do all that you can to raise productivity
In the long run, that’s what matters the most.
With an estimated net worth of $17 billion, it seems Dalio’s rules could be worth keeping in mind.
Visualizing The World’s Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds
To date, only two countries have sovereign wealth funds worth over $1 trillion. Learn more about them in this infographic.
Visualized: The World’s Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds
Did you know that some of the world’s largest investment funds are owned by national governments?
Known as sovereign wealth funds (SWF), these vehicles are often established with seed money that is generated by government-owned industries. If managed responsibly and given a long enough timeframe, an SWF can accumulate an enormous amount of assets.
In this infographic, we’ve detailed the world’s 10 largest SWFs, along with the largest mutual fund and ETF for context.
The Big Picture
Data collected from SWFI in October 2021 ranks Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (also known as the Norwegian Oil Fund) as the world’s largest SWF.
The world’s 10 largest sovereign wealth funds (with fund size benchmarks) are listed below:
|Country||Fund Name||Fund Type||Assets Under Management (AUM)|
|🇳🇴 Norway||Government Pension Fund Global||SWF||$1.3 trillion|
|🇺🇸 U.S.||Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund||Mutual fund||$1.3 trillion|
|🇨🇳 China||China Investment Corporation||SWF||$1.2 trillion|
|🇰🇼 Kuwait||Kuwait Investment Authority||SWF||$693 billion|
|🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates||Abu Dhabi Investment Authority||SWF||$649 billion|
|🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR||Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio||SWF||$581 billion|
|🇸🇬 Singapore||Government of Singapore Investment Corporation||SWF||$545 billion|
|🇸🇬 Singapore||Temasek||SWF||$484 billion|
|🇨🇳 China||National Council for Social Security Fund||SWF||$447 billion|
|🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia||Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia||SWF||$430 billion|
|🇺🇸 U.S.||State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust||ETF||$391 billion|
|🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates||Investment Corporation of Dubai||SWF||$302 billion|
SWF AUM gathered on 10/08/2021. VTSAX and SPY AUM as of 09/30/2021.
So far, just two SWFs have surpassed the $1 trillion milestone. To put this in perspective, consider that the world’s largest mutual fund, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX), is a similar size, investing in U.S. large-, mid-, and small-cap equities.
The Trillion Dollar Club
The world’s two largest sovereign wealth funds have a combined $2.5 trillion in assets. Here’s a closer look at their underlying portfolios.
1. Government Pension Fund Global – $1.3 Trillion (Norway)
Norway’s SWF was established after the country discovered oil in the North Sea. The fund invests the revenue coming from this sector to safeguard the future of the national economy. Here’s a breakdown of its investments.
|Asset Class||% of Total Assets||Country Diversification||Number of Securities|
|Public Equities||72.8%||69 countries||9,123 companies|
|Fixed income||24.7%||45 countries||1,245 bonds|
|Real estate||2.5%||14 countries||867 properties|
As of 12/31/2020
Real estate may be a small part of the portfolio, but it’s an important component for diversification (real estate is less correlated to the stock market) and generating income. Here are some U.S. office towers that the fund has an ownership stake in.
|601 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY||45.0%|
|475 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY||49.9%|
|33 Arch Street, Boston, MA||49.9%|
|100 First Street, San Francisco, CA||44.0%|
As of 12/31/2020
Overall, the fund has investments in 462 properties in the U.S. for a total value of $14.9 billion.
2. China Investment Corporation (CIC) – $1.2 Trillion (China)
The CIC is the largest of several Chinese SWFs, and was established to diversify the country’s foreign exchange holdings.
Compared to the Norwegian fund, the CIC invests in a greater variety of alternatives. This includes real estate, of course, but also private equity, private credit, and hedge funds.
|Asset Class||% of Total Assets|
As of 12/31/2020
A primary focus of the CIC has been to increase its exposure to American infrastructure and manufacturing. By the end of 2020, 57% of the fund was invested in the United States.
“According to our estimate, the United States needs at least $8 trillion in infrastructure investments. There’s not sufficient capital from the U.S. government or private sector. It has to rely on foreign investments.”
– Ding Xuedong, Chairman, China Investment Corporation
This has drawn suspicion from U.S. regulators given the geopolitical tensions between the two countries. For further reading on the topic, consider this 2017 paper by the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Preparing for a Future Without Oil
Many of the countries associated with these SWFs are known for their robust fossil fuel industries. This includes Middle Eastern nations like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Oil has been an incredible source of wealth for these countries, but it’s unlikely to last forever. Some analysts believe that we could even see peak oil demand before 2030—though this doesn’t mean that oil will stop being an important resource.
Regardless, oil-producing countries are looking to hedge their reliance on fossil fuels. Their SWFs play an important role by taking oil revenue and investing it to generate returns and/or bolster other sectors of the economy.
An example of this is Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), which supports the country’s Vision 2030 framework by investing in clean energy and other promising sectors.
Fact Check: The Truth Behind Five ESG Myths
ESG investing continues to break fund inflow records. In this infographic, we unpack five common ESG myths.
Fact Check: The Truth Behind 5 ESG Myths
In 2021, investors continue to embrace environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments at record levels.
In the first quarter of 2021, global ESG fund inflows outpaced the last four consecutive quarters, reaching $2 trillion. But while ESG gains rapid momentum, the CFA Institute shows that 33% of professional investors surveyed feel they have insufficient knowledge for considering ESG issues.
To help investors understand this growing trend, this infographic from MSCI helps provide a fact check on five common ESG myths.
1. “ESG Comes at the Expense of Investment Performance”
Fact Check: Not necessarily
Worldwide, ESG-focused companies have not only seen higher returns, but stronger earnings growth and dividends.
|Returns by ESG Ratings||Earnings Growth*||Active Return**||Dividends and Buybacks|
Source: MSCI ESG Research LLC (Dec, 2020)
*Contribution of earnings growth and dividends/buybacks to active return
**Active return is the additional gain or loss compared to it respective benchmark
In fact, a separate study from the CFA Institute shows that 35% of investment professionals invest in ESG to improve their financial returns.
2. “Investors Talk About ESG But Don’t Invest In It”
Fact Check: False
Global ESG assets under management (AUM) in ETFs have grown from $6 billion in 2015 to $150 billion in 2020. In just five years, ESG AUM have accelerated 25 times.
Today, money managers are focusing on the following top five issues:
|Top ESG Issues||Assets Affected||Growth in Assets Affected (2018-2020)|
|Climate change / carbon emissions||$4.18T||39%|
|Sustainable natural resources / agriculture||$2.38T||81%|
Source: US SIF Foundation (Nov, 2020)
Meanwhile, over 1,500 shareholder resolutions focused on ESG-related matters were filed between 2018-2020. Not only are investors turning to ESG assets, but they are placing higher demands on corporate responsibility.
3. “ESG Investment Strategies Eliminate Entire Sectors”
Fact Check: Not necessarily
First, not all ESG investment approaches are exclusionary.
For instance, in North America roughly 51% of ESG ETFs used an ESG integration approach as of Dec. 31, 2020. In an ESG integration approach, ESG risks and opportunities are analyzed with the goal to support long-term returns.
By comparison, values and screens approaches, which accounted for over 22% of ESG ETFs in North America may screen out specific business activities, such as alcohol or tobacco, or sectors such as oil & gas.
|Percentage of ESG Type||Integration||Values & Screens||Thematic||Impact|
Source: Refinitiv/Lipper and MSCI ESG Research LLC as of Dec 31, 2020 (MSCI Feb, 2021)
Second, companies are assessed on a sector-specific basis where ESG leaders and laggards are identified within each sector in comparison to peers. In other words, ESG doesn’t mean eliminating exposure to entire sectors. Instead, investors can choose from a range of companies based on their ESG ratings quality.
4. “ESG Investing Is Only For Millennials”
Fact Check: False
Although ESG is popular among millennials, ESG investing is being driven by the entire investor population. In 2019, one study finds that 85% of the general population expressed interest in ESG investing.
|Interest in Sustainable Investing||General Population||Millennials|
Source: US SIF Foundation (Nov, 2020)
Sustainable investing goes far beyond millennials—ESG disclosures are quickly becoming requirements for key industry participants, such as institutional investors and listed companies.
5. “ESG Investing is Here to Stay”
Fact Check: True
Climbing 28% in 2020 alone, over 3,000 signatories have committed to the UN Principles of Responsible Investment. As of the first quarter of 2021, 313 global organizations and 33 asset owners have been newly added.
|Growth of UN PRI||Number of Signatories*||AUM Represented|
Source: UN PRI
*As of Mar, 2020
Central to ESG’s growth is the availability of ESG investments. ESG investing has become more widely accessible—which wasn’t always the case. Over the last decade, the global number of ESG ETFs has grown from 46 to 497.
Why the Facts Matter
As ESG investments continue to play an even greater role in investor portfolios, it’s important to focus on data rather than prevailing ESG myths that are not backed by fact.
Given the recent momentum in investment returns and ESG adoption, data-driven evidence empowers investors to build more sustainable portfolios that better align with their investment objectives.
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