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10-Year Annualized Forecasts for Major Asset Classes

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10-year annualized forecasts for major asset classes

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10-Year Annualized Forecasts for Major Asset Classes

While there’s no way of predicting the future, quantitative models can help us come up with a general idea of how different asset classes may perform in the future.

One example is Vanguard’s Capital Markets Model (VCMM), which has produced a set of 10-year annualized return forecasts for both equity and fixed income markets.

Visualized above, these projections were published on May 17, 2023, and are based on the March 31, 2023 running of the VCMM.

 

 

Equity Returns

The equity forecasts from this infographic are listed in the following table.

Asset ClassReturn Forecast (lower)Return Forecast (upper)Median Volatility
U.S. Equities4.1%6.1%17.0%
U.S. Value4.4%6.4%19.6%
U.S. Growth1.4%3.4%18.2%
U.S. Large-Cap4.1%6.1%16.7%
U.S. Small-Cap4.4%6.4%22.3%
U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts4.4%6.4%20.1%
Global Equities ex-U.S. (unhedged)6.4%8.4%18.2%
Global ex-U.S. Developed Markets Equities (unhedged)6.1%8.1%16.6%
Emerging Markets Equities (unhedged)6.1%8.1%25.9%

A key takeaway here is that Vanguard expects international equities to outperform U.S. equities over the next decade.

We believe that the valuation-based expansion in U.S. equities is sowing the seeds for lower returns in the decade.

A valuation-based expansion refers to the increase in a company’s market value, rather than its intrinsic value. In other words, Vanguard doesn’t believe that current U.S. equity valuations are justified, and that this will dampen performance over the next decade.

Cited reasons for international outperformance include more favorable valuations, higher dividend payout ratios, and a potentially weaker U.S. dollar.

 

 

Fixed Income Returns

Now turning to fixed income, here are the forecasts used in this infographic.

Asset ClassReturn Forecast (lower)Return Forecast (upper)Median Volatility
U.S. Aggregate Bonds3.6%4.6%5.5%
U.S. Treasury Bonds3.3%4.3%5.7%
U.S. Intermediate Credit Bonds4.2%5.2%5.2%
U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bonds5.5%6.5%10.1%
U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities2.7%3.7%5.0%
U.S. Cash3.4%4.4%1.4%
Global Bonds ex-U.S. (hedged)3.6%4.6%4.4%
Emerging Markets Sovereign Bonds5.6%6.6%10.9%
U.S. Inflation2.0%3.0%2.3%

Several bond indexes saw record-breaking declines in 2022 thanks to the unprecedented speed of interest rate hikes. Despite this turmoil, Vanguard believes that investors with a longer horizon will actually be better off as a result. The reasoning here is that cash flows can now be reinvested at much higher rates, which over time should offset any declines in an investor’s bond portfolio.

Vanguard also expects U.S. inflation to be contained over the next decade. The firm has confidence in the ability of central banks to keep inflation at their target rates (2% in most developed economies).

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Investor Education

Ranked: The Best Stock Brokers for Investors and Traders

Whether you’re searching for low fees or an easy-to-use trading platform, this clear breakdown can help you find the best stock brokers.

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A heat map scoring the best stock brokers on a variety of categories like research and education; most of the category names and broker names are obscured from view in this preview image.

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The following content is sponsored by StockBrokers.com

Ranked: The Best Stock Brokers for Investors and Traders

Choosing the right online trading platform might seem tricky. There are lots of options, and finding the best stock brokers could require a lot of time and research. Luckily, a team of experts has already done the work for you!

In this graphic from StockBrokers.com, we show how stock brokers performed in a variety of categories so you can make an informed decision.

Breaking Down the Best Stock Brokers

StockBrokers.com analyzed 17 select brokers using actual trading accounts or demo accounts. 

The below table shows the overall scores, with 100% being the highest possible score. It also breaks down ratings in the ease of use, mobile trading, and commissions and fees categories, which have the heaviest weightings in the overall score. 

Stock BrokerOverall Ease
of Use
Mobile
Trading
Commissions
& Fees
Fidelity9910099100
E*TRADE971009990
Charles Schwab971009790
Merrill Edge941009690
Interactive Brokers93809990
Firstrade88809490
tastytrade85908990
Ally Invest85907990
Webull85909190
Robinhood841009090
TradeStation82709090
J.P. Morgan
Self-Directed
Investing
82857990
Vanguard78955690
Tradier77907590
eToro77858790
SoFi Invest74906490
Public.com70856890

Source: StockBrokers.com as of January 23, 2024. The overall score is based on the following category weightings: 25% ease of use, 25% mobile trading apps, 20% Commissions and fees, 10% investment options, 10% research, 5% platforms and tools, 5% education.

Fidelity has the top overall score in 2024, with an excellent app, clear navigation, and low fees. When it comes to fees, Fidelity skips many charges that are common among other brokers. It also doesn’t accept payment for order flow, which is when brokers direct your orders to market centers that pay them a referral fee. 

E*TRADE and Charles Schwab are tied for second place when it comes to the best stock brokers. According to StockBrokers.com, E*TRADE has the best platform for mobile trading. The company offers one app focused on casual investors, and another for beginner to intermediate investors that has a useful—but not overwhelming—number of tools. 

Charles Schwab, on the other hand, boasts the best desktop trading platform where investors can keep track of huge watch lists and follow streaming market news.

How Brokers Bring Additional Value

Apart from giving you the ability to trade stocks online, brokers also offer other perks like trading tools and education. Here’s how the same 17 brokers scored on these types of features.

Stock BrokerInvestment
Options
Research Platform
& Tools
Education
Fidelity969694100
E*TRADE95999396
Charles Schwab971009595
Merrill Edge89989399
Interactive Brokers999910093
Firstrade90877569
tastytrade80559284
Ally Invest89777382
Webull76638858
Robinhood74496273
TradeStation94659170
J.P. Morgan
Self-Directed
Investing
78755791
Vanguard88674868
Tradier76467335
eToro54566653
SoFi Invest60415486
Public.com53444653

Source: StockBrokers.com as of January 23, 2024. The overall score is based on the following category weightings: 25% ease of use, 25% mobile trading apps, 20% Commissions and fees, 10% investment options, 10% research, 5% platforms and tools, 5% education.

Interactive Brokers holds the title of “best for professional traders” thanks to its wide range of highly customizable tools, investment options, and research. Investors can also trade in foreign markets and hold multiple currencies, for those interested in forex trading.

While not included in overall scores, StockBrokers.com also rated brokers on their customer service through nationwide phone testing. Fidelity and Merrill Edge are the best stock brokers when it comes to customer service. Both companies answered calls in less than a minute on average, and their representatives had high professionalism. 

Picking the Best Brokerage Account

When you’re choosing from a list of the best stock brokers, you’ll want to consider which features are most important to you.

StockBrokers.com offers clear, in-depth reviews and compares brokers on more than 150 different account features and fees. You can also see screenshots of what various pages look like within the trading platforms. 

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See StockBrokers.com’s guide to the best online trading platforms of 2024.

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