Markets
The Best Months for Stock Market Gains
The Best Months for Stock Market Gains
Many investors believe that equity markets perform better during certain times of the year.
Is there any truth to these claims, or is it superstitious nonsense? This infographic uses data gathered by Schroders, a British asset management firm, to investigate.
What the Data Says
This analysis is based on 31 years of performance across four major stock indexes:
- FTSE 100: An index of the top 100 companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE)
- MSCI World: An index of over 1,000 large and mid-cap companies within developed markets
- S&P 500: An index of the 500 largest companies that trade on U.S. stock exchanges
- Eurostoxx 50: An index of the top 50 blue-chip stocks within the Eurozone region
The percentages in the following table represent the historical frequency of these indexes rising in a given month, between the years 1987 and 2018. Months are ordered from best to worst, in descending order.
| Rank | Month of Year | Frequency of Growth (%) | Difference from Mean (p.p.) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | December | 79.0% | +19.9 | |
| #2 | April | 74.3% | +15.2 | |
| #3 | October | 68.6% | +9.5 | |
| #4 | July | 61.7% | +2.6 | |
| #5 | May | 58.6% | -0.5 | |
| #6 | November | 58.4% | -0.7 | |
| #7 | January | 57.8% | -1.3 | |
| #8 | February | 57.0% | -2.1 | |
| #9 | March | 56.3% | -2.8 | |
| #10 | September | 51.6% | -7.5 | |
| #11 | August | 49.3% | -9.8 | |
| #12 | June | 36.7% | -22.4 | |
| Average | 59.1% | n/a |
There are some outliers in this dataset that we’ll focus on below.
The Strong Months
In terms of frequency of growth, December has historically been the best month to own stocks. This lines up with a phenomenon known as the “Santa Claus Rally”, which suggests that equity markets rally over Christmas.
One theory is that the holiday season has a psychological effect on investors, driving them to buy rather than sell. We can also hypothesize that many institutional investors are on vacation during this time. This could give bullish retail investors more sway over the direction of the market.
The second best month was April, which is commonly regarded as a strong month for the stock market. One theory is that many investors receive their tax refunds in April, which they then use to buy stocks. The resulting influx of cash pushes prices higher.
Speaking of higher prices, we can also look at this trend from the perspective of returns. Focusing on the S&P 500, and looking back to 1928, April has generated an average return of 0.88%. This is well above the all-month average of 0.47%.
The Weak Months
The three worst months to own stocks, according to this analysis, are June, August, and September. Is it a coincidence that they’re all in the summer?
One theory for the season’s relative weakness is that institutional traders are on vacation, similar to December. Without the holiday cheer, however, the market is less frothy and the reduced liquidity leads to increased risk.
Whether you believe this or not, the data does show a convincing pattern. It’s for this reason that the phrase “sell in May and go away” has become popularized.
Key Takeaways
Investors should remember that this data is based on historical results, and should not be used to make forward-looking decisions in the stock market.
Anomalies like the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 can have a profound impact on the world, and the market as a whole. Stock market performance during these times may deviate greatly from their historical averages seen above.
Regardless, this analysis can still be useful to investors who are trying to understand market movements. For example, if stocks rise in December without any clear catalyst, it could be the famed Santa Claus Rally at work.
Markets
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.
We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.
Disinflation vs. Deflation
The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.
| Time Period | March 1980-July 1983 | June 2022-April 2023* |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation at Start of Cycle | 14.8% | 9.1% |
| Inflation at End of Cycle | 2.5% | 4.9% |
* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.
A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?
Looking to History
There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.
With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.
Equity Issuance
Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.
| Year | Deal Value |
|---|---|
| 1980 | $2.6B |
| 1981 | $5.0B |
| 1982 | $3.6B |
| 1983 | $13.5B |
| 1984 | $2.5B |
| 1985 | $12.0B |
| 1986 | $24.2B |
| 1987 | $24.9B |
| 1988 | $16.9B |
| 1989 | $12.9B |
| 1990 | $13.4B |
| 1991 | $45.2B |
| 1992 | $50.3B |
| 1993 | $95.3B |
| 1994 | $63.7B |
| 1995 | $79.7B |
| 1996 | $108.7B |
| 1997 | $106.5B |
| 1998 | $97.0B |
| 1999 | $142.8B |
| 2000 | $156.5B |
Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.
Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.
Debt Issuance
Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.
| Year | Deal Value | Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | $4.5B | 11.4% |
| 1981 | $6.7B | 13.9% |
| 1982 | $14.5B | 13.0% |
| 1983 | $8.1B | 11.1% |
| 1984 | $25.7B | 12.5% |
| 1985 | $46.4B | 10.6% |
| 1986 | $47.1B | 7.7% |
| 1987 | $26.4B | 8.4% |
| 1988 | $24.7B | 8.9% |
| 1989 | $29.9B | 8.5% |
| 1990 | $40.2B | 8.6% |
| 1991 | $41.6B | 7.9% |
| 1992 | $50.0B | 7.0% |
| 1993 | $487.8B | 5.9% |
| 1994 | $526.4B | 7.1% |
| 1995 | $632.7B | 6.6% |
| 1996 | $906.0B | 6.4% |
| 1997 | $1.3T | 6.4% |
| 1998 | $1.8T | 5.3% |
| 1999 | $1.8T | 5.7% |
| 2000 | $2.8T | 6.0% |
Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.
As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.
It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.
Then vs. Now
Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.
Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.
| January 1981 | April 2023* | |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Annual | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| Inflation Expectations Next 12 Months | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| Interest Rate 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 12.6% | 3.7% |
| Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| Nominal Wage Growth Annual, Seasonally Adjusted | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| After-Tax Corporate Profits As Share of Gross Value Added | 9.1% | 13.8% |
* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.
What to Consider During Disinflation
Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.
- High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
- High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
- Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.
In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.
Learn more about working with Citizens.
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