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Do You Believe in the Santa Claus Rally?

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Do You Believe in the Santa Claus Rally?

Do You Believe in the Santa Claus Rally?

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Just like children eagerly anticipate the arrival of the big man in the red suit, stock traders have a similar holiday tradition of importance.

According to the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac, there’s an average 1.3% market rally in stocks that occurs every year during the holidays. Dubbed the “Santa Claus Rally”, it’s happened about 75% of the time since 1969.

And this year in particular, after one of the worst months for the market in recent memory, it’s no secret that investors have their hopes up for a sizable present under the tree.

Recent Rally History

Although the Santa Claus Rally has historical significance going back many decades, over the more recent period it’s been much more elusive.

Here is the data over the last five years.

We’re using the time period as defined by the Trader’s Almanac (last five trading days of December, and first two in New Year), and S&P 500 Index prices.

YearDay 1*Day 7**Change
2013-141828.021831.370.2%
2014-152083.252020.58-3.0%
2015-162063.522016.71-2.3%
2016-172260.252270.750.5%
2017-182684.222713.061.1%

Data for S&P 500, *Opening price **Closing price

As you can see, Santa provided a nice gift to traders (1.1%) last year – but in two of the previous holidays stretches, Wall Street must have been far naughtier.

During the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, the S&P 500 saw -2.7% returns, a proverbial lump of coal in portfolio stockings.

Do You Believe?

No one is really sure why the Santa Claus Rally happens, but various theories have been proposed.

Some say investors are buying in anticipation of the January effect, or that it happens as a result of tax reasons. Others say it’s a period of time where institutional investors are home with their families, and bullish retail investors take control of the market.

Either way, it seems after a brutal December – which included the worst week for the Dow (-7%) since the financial crisis – the market could benefit from the Santa bump this year.

At time of publication (Dec. 28th, 4pm ET), the S&P 500 is up 5.7% from Christmas Eve lows – though there are still a few days left in the typical rally time window to see if the gains hold.

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Markets

The Fastest Rising U.S. Housing Markets in 2024

As U.S. home prices hit record highs, which housing market is seen the fastest growth? This graphic shows the top 10 across the country.

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This bar chart shows the U.S. housing markets with the fastest rising home prices in 2024.

The Fastest Rising U.S. Housing Markets in 2024

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The U.S. housing market has been on a tear, with median sales prices rising more than 40% since February 2020.

While cities in southern states like Florida have witnessed some of the strongest price growth, more affordable cities across the Midwest are also seeing growing demand as buyers seek out cheaper options.

This graphic shows the U.S. metros with the fastest price growth, based on data from Redfin.

Hottest Housing Markets in America

Below, we rank the metropolitan areas with the fastest annual median sales price growth as of February 2024:

RankMetroMedian Sales Price Growth
Feb 2024 YoY
1Pittsburgh, PA+22.0%
2Fort Lauderdale, FL+18.0%
3Greensboro, NC+17.8%
4Meridian, ID+17.3%
5Toledo, OH+17.0%
6Boca Raton, FL+16.4%
7West Palm Beach, FL+16.1%
8Orlando, FL+15.9%
9Milwaukee, WI+15.6%
10Alexandria, VA+15.4%
U.S. average+6.5%

Pittsburgh, PA soars to the top of the list, with median sale prices jumping 22% over the year.

Once known as a center for steel and iron manufacturing, the city has emerged as a hub for high-tech industries including robotics, software engineering, and healthcare. At a time when housing affordability is near record lows, buyers have flocked to the market thanks to its lower home prices. In February, median sales prices in Pittsburgh were $250,000 compared to the U.S. median price of $412,219.

Following next in line is Fort Lauderdale, FL with prices jumping 18% annually. Like several cities across the state, property values have boomed thanks to the state’s warm climate and low taxes. The state also ranks as one of the best in the country to retire. In 2023, it was one of the fastest growing states in the country, adding 365,205 residents overall.

As we can see, just one housing market in the West, Meridian, ID, is experiencing some of the strongest price growth in the country. Since the pandemic, many Californians priced out of expensive real estate markets have moved to the state due to its strong job market, low crime rate, and affordability. In fact, Los Angeles and San Fransisco are some of the top metropolitan areas nationally that people are moving away from due to remote-work trends and the high cost of living.

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