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Visualized: A Global Risk Assessment of 2021 And Beyond
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Visualized: A Global Risk Assessment of 2021 And Beyond
Risk is all around us. After the events of 2020, it’s not surprising that the level and variety of risks we face have become more pronounced than ever.
Every year, the World Economic Forum analyzes the top risks in the world in its Global Risks Report. Risks were identified based on 800+ responses of surveyed leaders across various levels of expertise, organizations, and regional distribution.
Which risks are top of mind in 2021?
The World’s Top Risks by Likelihood and Impact
According to WEF’s risk assessment methodology, all the global risks in 2021 fall into the following broad categories:
- 🔵 Economic
- 🟢 Environmental
- 🟠 Geopolitical
- 🔴 Societal
- 🟣 Technological
It goes without saying that infectious diseases have now become one of the top societal risks on both metrics of likelihood and impact.
That said, environmental risks continue to dominate the leaderboard, accounting for five of the top 10 risks by impact, especially when it comes to climate action failure.
Several countries are off-track in meeting emissions goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, while the pandemic has also delayed progress in the shift towards a carbon-neutral economy. Meanwhile, biodiversity loss is occurring at unprecedented rates.
| Rank | Top Risks by Likelihood | Top Risks by Impact |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 🟢Extreme weather | 🔴Infectious diseases |
| #2 | 🟢Climate action failure | 🟢Climate action failure |
| #3 | 🟢Human environmental damage | 🟠Weapons of mass destruction |
| #4 | 🔴Infectious diseases | 🟢Biodiversity loss |
| #5 | 🟢Biodiversity loss | 🟢Natural resource crises |
| #6 | 🟣Digital power concentration | 🟢Human environmental damage |
| #7 | 🟣Digital inequality | 🔴Livelihood crises |
| #8 | 🟠Interstate relations fracture | 🟢Extreme weather |
| #9 | 🟣Cybersecurity failure | 🔵Debt crises |
| #10 | 🔴Livelihood crises | 🟣IT Infrastructure breakdown |
As for other risks, the prospect of weapons of mass destruction ranks in third place for potential impact. In the global arms race, a single misstep would trigger severe consequences on civil and political stability.
New Risks in 2021
While many of the risks included in the Global Risks Report 2021 are familiar to those who have read the editions of years past, there are a flurry of new entries to the list this year.
Here are some of the most interesting ones in the risk assessment, sorted by category:
Societal Risks
COVID-19 has resulted in a myriad of knock-on societal risks, from youth disillusionment and mental health deterioration to livelihood crises. The first two risks in particular go hand-in-hand, as “pandemials” (youth aged 15-24) are staring down a turbulent future. This generation is more likely to report high distress from disrupted educational and economic prospects.
At the same time, as countries prepare for widespread immunization against COVID-19, another related societal risk is the backlash against science. The WEF identifies vaccines and immunization as subjects susceptible to disinformation and denial of scientific evidence.
Economic Risks
As monetary stimulus was kicked into high gear to prop up markets and support many closed businesses and quarantined families, the economic outlook seems more fragile than ever. Debt-to-GDP ratios continue to rise across advanced economies—if GDP growth stagnates for too long, a potential debt crisis could see many businesses and major nations default on their debt.
With greater stress accumulating on a range of major industries such as travel and hospitality, the economy risks a build-up of “zombie” firms that drag down overall productivity. Despite this, market valuations and asset prices continue to rise, with equity markets rewarding investors betting on a swift recovery so far.
Technological Risks
Last but not least, COVID-19 has raised the alert on various technological risks. Despite the accelerated shift towards remote work and digitalization of entire industries, the reality is that digital inequality leaves those with lower digital literacy behind—worsening existing inequalities.
Big Tech is also bloating even further, growing its digital power concentration. The market share some companies hold in their respective sectors, such as Amazon in online retail, threatens to erode the agency of other players.
Assessing the Top 10 Risks On the Horizon
Back in mid-2020, the WEF attempted to quantify the biggest risks over an 18-month period, with a prolonged economic recession emerging on top.
In this report’s risk assessment, global risks are further classified by how soon their resulting threats are expected to occur. Weapons of mass destruction remain the top risk, though on a much longer scale of up to 10 years in the future.
| Rank | Risk | % | Time Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 🟠Weapons of mass destruction | 62.7 | Long-term (5-10 years) |
| #2 | 🔴Infectious diseases | 58 | Short-term risks (0-2 years) |
| #3 | 🔴Livelihood crises | 55.1 | Short-term risks (0-2 years) |
| #4 | 🔵Asset bubble burst | 53.3 | Medium-term risks (3-5 years) |
| #5 | 🟣 IT infrastructure breakdown | 53.3 | Medium-term risks (3-5 years) |
| #6 | 🔵Price instability | 52.9 | Medium-term risks (3-5 years) |
| #7 | 🟢Extreme weather events | 52.7 | Short-term risks (0-2 years) |
| #8 | 🔵Commodity shocks | 52.7 | Medium-term risks (3-5 years) |
| #9 | 🔵Debt crises | 52.3 | Medium-term risks (3-5 years) |
| #10 | 🟠State collapse | 51.8 | Long-term (5-10 years) |
Through this perspective, COVID-19 (and its variants) remains high in the next two years as the world scrambles to return to normal.
It’s also clear that more economic risks are taking center stage, from an asset bubble burst to price instability that could have a profound effect over the next five years.
Agriculture
Fertilizer: Why it’s More Important than You Think
Fertilizer usage dates back to as early as 6,000 to 2,400 BC and remains just as crucial for crop production today.
Fertilizer: Why It’s More Important Than You think
The global population is expected to reach nearly 10 billion people by 2050. So, in order to feed our growing world sustainably, increased crop production is essential.
Over recent decades, farmers have been able to more than double their production of crops thanks to fertilizers and the vital nutrients they contain.
When crops are harvested, the essential nutrients are taken away with them to the dining table, resulting in the depletion of these nutrients in the soil. To replenish these nutrients, fertilizers are needed, and the cycle continues.
The above infographic by Brazil Potash shows the role that each macronutrient plays in growing healthy, high-yielding crops.
Food for Growth
Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) are three primary macronutrients that are the building blocks of the global fertilizer industry. Each plays a key role in plant nutrition and promoting crop growth with higher yields.
Let’s take a look at how each macronutrient affects plant growth.
| Nutrient | Why it’s needed? | What does it do? | What happens without it? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nitrogen (N) | Needed for the formation of all plant and animal proteins. | Nitrogen ensures that energy is available when and where it is needed to maximize yield and regulate water and nutrient uptake. | Nitrogen deficiency in crops causes stunted and spindly plants, low protein content in seed and vegetative parts, and fewer leaves. |
| Phosphorus (P) | Vital for plant photosynthesis. | Phosphorus allows plants to convert the sun’s energy into food, fiber, and oil. It improves how efficiently the plant absorbs water and macronutrients such as nitrogen. | Phosphorus deficiency causes stunted growth, reduced crop yields, low quality harvests, and moisture stress. |
| Potassium (K) | Essential for robust high quality crops. | Potassium helps regulate water pressure in plant cells and maximizes crop yields by strengthening plant stems to make them more resilient to drought, flooding, and temperature swings. | Potassium deficiency causes a slower growth rate of plants, delayed pollination and maturity, underdeveloped leaves, reduced crop yields, weakened stalks, and moisture stress. |
If crops lack NPK macronutrients, they become vulnerable to various stresses caused by weather conditions, pests, and diseases. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain a balance of all three macronutrients for the production of healthy, high-yielding crops.
The Importance of Fertilizers
Humans identified the importance of using fertilizers, such as manure, to nourish crops dating back to nearly 6,000 to 2,400 BC.
As agriculture became more intensive and large-scale, farmers began to experiment with different types of fertilizers. Today advanced chemical fertilizers are used across the globe to enhance global crop production.
There are a myriad of factors that affect soil type, and so the farmable land must have a healthy balance of all three macronutrients to support high-yielding, healthy crops. Consequently, arable land around the world varies in the amount and type of fertilizer it needs.
Fertilizers play an integral role in strengthening food security, and a supply of locally available fertilizer is needed in supporting global food systems in an ever-growing world.
Brazil is one of the largest exporters of agricultural goods in the world. However, the country is vulnerable as it relies on importing more than 95% of its potash to support crop growth.
Brazil Potash is developing a new potash project in Brazil to ensure a stable domestic source of this nutrient-rich fertilizer critical for global food security.
Click here to learn more about fertilizer and food production in Brazil.
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