Visualized: A Global Risk Assessment of 2021 And Beyond

Visualized: A Global Risk Assessment of 2021 And Beyond

Risk is all around us. After the events of 2020, it’s not surprising that the level and variety of risks we face have become more pronounced than ever.

Every year, the World Economic Forum analyzes the top risks in the world in its Global Risks Report. Risks were identified based on 800+ responses of surveyed leaders across various levels of expertise, organizations, and regional distribution.

Which risks are top of mind in 2021?

The World’s Top Risks by Likelihood and Impact

According to WEF’s risk assessment methodology, all the global risks in 2021 fall into the following broad categories:

• 🔵 Economic
• 🟢 Environmental
• 🟠 Geopolitical
• 🔴 Societal
• 🟣 Technological

It goes without saying that infectious diseases have now become one of the top societal risks on both metrics of likelihood and impact.

That said, environmental risks continue to dominate the leaderboard, accounting for five of the top 10 risks by impact, especially when it comes to climate action failure.

Several countries are off-track in meeting emissions goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, while the pandemic has also delayed progress in the shift towards a carbon-neutral economy. Meanwhile, biodiversity loss is occurring at unprecedented rates.

Rank	Top Risks by Likelihood	Top Risks by Impact
#1	🟢Extreme weather	🔴Infectious diseases
#2	🟢Climate action failure	🟢Climate action failure
#3	🟢Human environmental damage	🟠Weapons of mass destruction
#4	🔴Infectious diseases	🟢Biodiversity loss
#5	🟢Biodiversity loss	🟢Natural resource crises
#6	🟣Digital power concentration	🟢Human environmental damage
#7	🟣Digital inequality	🔴Livelihood crises
#8	🟠Interstate relations fracture	🟢Extreme weather
#9	🟣Cybersecurity failure	🔵Debt crises
#10	🔴Livelihood crises	🟣IT Infrastructure breakdown

As for other risks, the prospect of weapons of mass destruction ranks in third place for potential impact. In the global arms race, a single misstep would trigger severe consequences on civil and political stability.

New Risks in 2021

While many of the risks included in the Global Risks Report 2021 are familiar to those who have read the editions of years past, there are a flurry of new entries to the list this year.

Here are some of the most interesting ones in the risk assessment, sorted by category:

Societal Risks

COVID-19 has resulted in a myriad of knock-on societal risks, from youth disillusionment and mental health deterioration to livelihood crises. The first two risks in particular go hand-in-hand, as “pandemials” (youth aged 15-24) are staring down a turbulent future. This generation is more likely to report high distress from disrupted educational and economic prospects.

At the same time, as countries prepare for widespread immunization against COVID-19, another related societal risk is the backlash against science. The WEF identifies vaccines and immunization as subjects susceptible to disinformation and denial of scientific evidence.

Economic Risks

As monetary stimulus was kicked into high gear to prop up markets and support many closed businesses and quarantined families, the economic outlook seems more fragile than ever. Debt-to-GDP ratios continue to rise across advanced economies—if GDP growth stagnates for too long, a potential debt crisis could see many businesses and major nations default on their debt.

With greater stress accumulating on a range of major industries such as travel and hospitality, the economy risks a build-up of “zombie” firms that drag down overall productivity. Despite this, market valuations and asset prices continue to rise, with equity markets rewarding investors betting on a swift recovery so far.

Technological Risks

Last but not least, COVID-19 has raised the alert on various technological risks. Despite the accelerated shift towards remote work and digitalization of entire industries, the reality is that digital inequality leaves those with lower digital literacy behind—worsening existing inequalities.

Big Tech is also bloating even further, growing its digital power concentration. The market share some companies hold in their respective sectors, such as Amazon in online retail, threatens to erode the agency of other players.

Assessing the Top 10 Risks On the Horizon

Back in mid-2020, the WEF attempted to quantify the biggest risks over an 18-month period, with a prolonged economic recession emerging on top.

In this report’s risk assessment, global risks are further classified by how soon their resulting threats are expected to occur. Weapons of mass destruction remain the top risk, though on a much longer scale of up to 10 years in the future.

Rank	Risk	%	Time Horizon
#1	🟠Weapons of mass destruction	62.7	Long-term (5-10 years)
#2	🔴Infectious diseases	58	Short-term risks (0-2 years)
#3	🔴Livelihood crises	55.1	Short-term risks (0-2 years)
#4	🔵Asset bubble burst	53.3	Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#5	🟣 IT infrastructure breakdown	53.3	Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#6	🔵Price instability	52.9	Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#7	🟢Extreme weather events	52.7	Short-term risks (0-2 years)
#8	🔵Commodity shocks	52.7	Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#9	🔵Debt crises	52.3	Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#10	🟠State collapse	51.8	Long-term (5-10 years)

Through this perspective, COVID-19 (and its variants) remains high in the next two years as the world scrambles to return to normal.

It’s also clear that more economic risks are taking center stage, from an asset bubble burst to price instability that could have a profound effect over the next five years.