Energy
The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2021 Edition)
The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2011-2020)
Being a commodity investor can feel like riding a roller coaster.
Take silver. Typically known for sharp, idiosyncratic price movements, it faced double-digit declines in the first half of the decade, falling over 35% in just 2013 alone. By contrast, it jumped over 47% in 2020. Similarly, oil, corn, and others witnessed either steep declines or rapid gains.
The above graphic from U.S. Global Investors traces 10 years of commodity price performance, highlighting 14 different commodities and their annual ranking over the years.
Commodity Price Performance, From Best to Worst
Which commodities were the top performers in 2020?
The aforementioned silver tripled its returns year-over-year, climbing 47.9% in 2020. In July, the metal actually experienced its strongest month since 1979.
| Rank | Commodity | Return (2020) | Return (2019) | Return (2018) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silver | 47.9% | 15.2% | -8.5% |
| 2 | Copper | 26.0% | 3.4% | -17.5% |
| 3 | Palladium | 25.9% | 54.2% | 18.6% |
| 4 | Gold | 25.1% | 18.3% | -1.6% |
| 5 | Corn | 24.8% | 3.4% | 6.9% |
| 6 | Zinc | 19.7% | -9.5% | -24.5% |
| 7 | Nickel | 18.7% | 31.6% | -16.5% |
| 8 | Gas | 16.0% | -25.5% | -0.4% |
| 9 | Wheat | 14.6% | 11.0% | 17.9% |
| 10 | Platinum | 10.9% | 21.5% | -14.5% |
| 11 | Aluminum | 10.8% | -4.4% | -17.4% |
| 12 | Lead | 3.3% | -4.7% | -19.2% |
| 13 | Coal | -1.3% | -18.0% | -22.2% |
| 14 | Oil | -20.5% | 34.5% | -24.8% |
Along with silver, at least seven other commodities had stronger returns than the S&P 500 in 2020, which closed off the year with 16.3% gains. This included copper (26.0%), palladium (25.9%), gold (25.1%) and corn (24.8%).
Interestingly, copper prices moved in an unconventional pattern compared to gold in 2020. Often, investors rush to gold in uncertain economic climates, while sectors such as construction and manufacturing—which both rely heavily on copper—tend to decline. Instead, both copper and gold saw their prices rise in conjunction.
Nowadays, copper is also a vital material in electric vehicles (EVs), with recent demand for EVs also influencing the price of copper.
Silver Linings
As investors flocked to safety, silver’s price reached heights not seen since 2010.
The massive scale of monetary and fiscal stimulus led to inflationary fears, also boosting the price of silver. How does this compare to its returns over the last decade?
In 2013, silver crashed over 35% as confidence grew in global markets. By contrast, in 2016, the Brexit referendum stirred uncertainty in global markets. Investors allocated money in silver, and prices shifted upwards.
As Gold as the Hills
Like silver, market uncertainty has historically boosted the price of gold.
What else contributed to gold’s rise?
- U.S. debt continues to climb, pushing down confidence in the U.S. dollar
- A weaker U.S. dollar makes gold cheaper for other countries to buy
- Low interest rates kept the returns of other safe haven assets low, making gold more attractive by comparison
Here’s how the price of gold has changed in recent years.
Gold faced its steepest recent declines in 2013, when the Federal Reserve bank discussed tapering down its quantitative easing program in light of economic recovery.
Hitting the Brakes On Oil
Oil suffered the worst commodity price performance in 2020, with -20.5% returns.
For the first time in history, oil prices went negative as demand plummeted. To limit its oversupply, oil producers shrunk investment, closed wells, and turned off valves. Unfortunately, many companies still faced bankruptcies. By November, 45 oil producers had proceeded with bankruptcy filings year-to-date.
This stood in stark contrast to 2019, when prices soared 34.5%.
As is custom for oil, prices see-sawed over the decade. In 2016 and 2019, it witnessed gains of over 30%. However, like 2020, in 2014 it saw huge losses due to an oversupply of global petroleum.
In 2020, total production cuts hit 7.2 million barrels a day in December, equal to 7% of global demand, in response to COVID-19.
Energy
The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers in 2022
Despite efforts from the U.S. and Europe to increase the domestic production of batteries, the market is still dominated by Asian suppliers.
The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers in 2022
This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week.
The global electric vehicle (EV) battery market is expected to grow from $17 billion to more than $95 billion between 2019 and 2028.
With increasing demand to decarbonize the transportation sector, companies producing the batteries that power EVs have seen substantial momentum.
Here we update our previous graphic of the top 10 EV battery manufacturers, bringing you the world’s biggest battery manufacturers in 2022.
Chinese Dominance
Despite efforts from the United States and Europe to increase the domestic production of batteries, the market is still dominated by Asian suppliers.
The top 10 producers are all Asian companies.
Currently, Chinese companies make up 56% of the EV battery market, followed by Korean companies (26%) and Japanese manufacturers (10%).
The leading battery supplier, CATL, expanded its market share from 32% in 2021 to 34% in 2022. One-third of the world’s EV batteries come from the Chinese company. CATL provides lithium-ion batteries to Tesla, Peugeot, Hyundai, Honda, BMW, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo.
| Rank | Company | 2022 Market Share | Country |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | CATL | 34% | China 🇨🇳 |
| #2 | LG Energy Solution | 14% | Korea 🇰🇷 |
| #3 | BYD | 12% | China 🇨🇳 |
| #4 | Panasonic | 10% | Japan 🇯🇵 |
| #5 | SK Innovation | 7% | Korea 🇰🇷 |
| #6 | Samsung SDI | 5% | Korea 🇰🇷 |
| #7 | CALB | 4% | China 🇨🇳 |
| #8 | Guoxuan | 3% | China 🇨🇳 |
| #9 | Sunwoda | 2% | China 🇨🇳 |
| #10 | SVOLT | 1% | China 🇨🇳 |
| Other | 8% | ROW 🌐 |
Despite facing strict scrutiny after EV battery-fire recalls in the United States, LG Energy Solution remains the second-biggest battery manufacturer. In 2021, the South Korean supplier agreed to reimburse General Motors $1.9 billion to cover the 143,000 Chevy Bolt EVs recalled due to fire risks from faulty batteries.
BYD took the third spot from Panasonic as it nearly doubled its market share over the last year. The Warren Buffett-backed company is the world’s third-largest automaker by market cap, but it also produces batteries sold in markets around the world. Recent sales figures point to BYD overtaking LG Energy Solution in market share the coming months or years.
The Age of Battery Power
Electric vehicles are here to stay, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are set to fade away in the coming decades. Recently, General Motors announced that it aims to stop selling ICE vehicles by 2035, while Audi plans to stop producing such models by 2033.
Besides EVs, battery technology is essential for the energy transition, providing storage capacity for intermittent solar and wind generation.
As battery makers work to supply the EV transition’s increasing demand and improve energy density in their products, we can expect more interesting developments within this industry.
Energy
Visualizing the Range of Electric Cars vs. Gas-Powered Cars
With range anxiety being a barrier to EV adoption, how far can an electric car go on one charge, and how do EV ranges compare with gas cars?
The Range of Electric Cars vs. Gas-Powered Cars
This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week.
EV adoption has grown rapidly in recent years, but many prospective buyers still have doubts about electric car ranges.
In fact, 33% of new car buyers chose range anxiety—the concern about how far an EV can drive on a full charge—as their top inhibitor to purchasing electric cars in a survey conducted by EY.
So, how far can the average electric car go on one charge, and how does that compare with the typical range of gas-powered cars?
The Rise in EV Ranges
Thanks to improvements in battery technology, the average range of electric cars has more than doubled over the last decade, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
| Year | Avg. EV Range | Maximum EV Range |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 79 miles (127 km) | N/A |
| 2011 | 86 miles (138 km) | 94 miles (151 km) |
| 2012 | 99 miles (159 km) | 265 miles (426 km) |
| 2013 | 117 miles (188 km) | 265 miles (426 km) |
| 2014 | 130 miles (209 km) | 265 miles (426 km) |
| 2015 | 131 miles (211 km) | 270 miles (435 km) |
| 2016 | 145 miles (233 km) | 315 miles (507 km) |
| 2017 | 151 miles (243 km) | 335 miles (539 km) |
| 2018 | 189 miles (304 km) | 335 miles (539 km) |
| 2019 | 209 miles (336 km) | 370 miles (595 km) |
| 2020 | 210 miles (338 km) | 402 miles (647 km) |
| 2021 | 217 miles (349 km) | 520 miles* (837 km) |
*Max range for EVs offered in the United States.
Source: IEA, U.S. DOE
As of 2021, the average battery-powered EV could travel 217 miles (349 km) on a single charge. It represents a 44% increase from 151 miles (243 km) in 2017 and a 152% increase relative to a decade ago.
Despite the steady growth, EVs still fall short when compared to gas-powered cars. For example, in 2021, the median gas car range (on one full tank) in the U.S. was around 413 miles (664 km)—nearly double what the average EV would cover.
As automakers roll out new models, electric car ranges are likely to continue increasing and could soon match those of their gas-powered counterparts. It’s important to note that EV ranges can change depending on external conditions.
What Affects EV Ranges?
In theory, EV ranges depend on battery capacity and motor efficiency, but real-world results can vary based on several factors:
- Weather: At temperatures below 20℉ (-6.7℃), EVs can lose around 12% of their range, rising to 41% if heating is turned on inside the vehicle.
- Operating Conditions: Thanks to regenerative braking, EVs may extend their maximum range during city driving.
- Speed: When driving at high speeds, EV motors spin faster at a less efficient rate. This may result in range loss.
On the contrary, when driven at optimal temperatures of about 70℉ (21.5℃), EVs can exceed their rated range, according to an analysis by Geotab.
The 10 Longest-Range Electric Cars in America
Here are the 10 longest-range electric cars available in the U.S. as of 2022, based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) range estimates:
| Car | Range On One Full Charge | Estimated Base Price |
|---|---|---|
| Lucid Air | 520 miles (837 km) | $170,500 |
| Tesla Model S | 405 miles (652 km) | $106,190 |
| Tesla Model 3 | 358 miles (576 km) | $59,440 |
| Mercedes EQS | 350 miles (563 km) | $103,360 |
| Tesla Model X | 348 miles (560 km) | $122,440 |
| Tesla Model Y | 330 miles (531 km) | $67,440 |
| Hummer EV | 329 miles (529 km) | $110,295 |
| BMW iX | 324 miles (521 km) | $84,195 |
| Ford F-150 Lightning | 320 miles (515 km) | $74,169 |
| Rivian R1S | 316 miles (509 km) | $70,000 |
Source: Car and Driver
The top-spec Lucid Air offers the highest range of any EV with a price tag of $170,500, followed by the Tesla Model S. But the Tesla Model 3 offers the most bang for your buck if range and price are the only two factors in consideration.
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