Markets
Charted: The Key Investment Theme of Each Decade (1950-Today)
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Visualizing the Key Investment Theme of Each Decade
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Over modern history, a key investment theme has broadly characterized each decade.
In each case, a particular asset class, sector, or region captivated investors for an extended period, driving returns and outperforming the rest of the market.
This graphic shows 70 years of key investment themes, based on analysis from Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley Investment Management via NS Capital.
Investment Themes by Decade
These decade-defining themes are often the product of a confluence of factors, including the macroeconomic environment, geopolitics, monetary policy, or other structural shifts like technological disruption.
Here are the central investment themes since the 1950s, each with at least 400% cumulative returns over each period:
| Decade | Investment Theme | Index / Asset |
|---|---|---|
| 1950s | European Stocks | Europe GFD Composite |
| 1960s | “Nifty Fifty” | U.S. Nifty 50 |
| 1970s | Emerging Markets/ Commodities | Gold and Oil Prices* |
| 1980s | Japanese Stocks | TOPIX Index |
| 1990s | American Tech | Nasdaq Index |
| 2000s | Emerging Markets/ Commodities | BRICs and Oil Prices** |
| 2010s | American “Mega Caps” | FAANG |
*Price change for gold and oil, represented as an average. **Equity market performance of Brazil, Russia, India, China and oil prices, represented as an average.
The 1950s saw a boom in European stocks during the post-war recovery. This was fueled by significant investment from corporations and governments as Europe became more integrated.
Then in the 1960s, investors poured into blue chip stocks in the “Nifty Fifty” including Johnson & Johnson, Disney, and Coca-Cola. The main premise was that these strong franchises would deliver high returns over the long run. During the 1973-1974 bear market, shares cratered.
As oil skyrocketed from $3.35 to $32.50 through the 1970s amid production and output cuts, commodities dominated, along with emerging economy exporters of oil and gold.
Later, through the 1980s, Japanese stocks dramatically increased. In 1989, the Tokyo Stock Exchange made up 41% of all global equities. It had eclipsed the value of the U.S. equity market just two years earlier.
In part owing to strong U.S. economic growth, American tech stocks flourished through the 1990s. While many high-flying tech stocks were wiped out during the crash in 2000, some still remain today. Qualcomm, which jumped 2,620% in 1999, is a multi-billion dollar semiconductor company. Amazon and Cisco were other survivors of this era.
Pivoting from growth assets, investors returned to commodities and emerging markets over the 2000s, this time with BRIC economies—Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The 2010s saw the rise of FAANG stocks as tech proliferated across countless industries.
The Next Decade Ahead
Given how each decade seems to be defined by a key investment theme, Sharma suggests that it won’t be another driven defined by American stocks.
The disconnect between the size of U.S. equity markets, at 43% of the global share, and its economic output, which is 26% of the world’s total, is one reason driving a new shift.
Another factor is stark differences in valuations. Today, the U.S. stock market compared to the rest of the world is at its highest relative level in 100 years, suggesting it is overvalued and primed for a shift.
Whether global stocks gain a greater global equity market share—to become a key investment cycle of this decade—remains an open question.
Markets
Visualizing the Rise of the U.S. Dollar Since the 19th Century
This animated graphic shows the U.S. dollar, the world’s primary reserve currency, as a share of foreign reserves since 1900.
Creator Program
Visualizing the Rise of the U.S. Dollar Since the 19th Century
As the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar made up 58.4% of foreign reserves held by central banks in 2022, falling near 25-year lows.
Today, emerging countries are slowly decoupling from the greenback, with foreign reserves shifting to currencies like the Chinese yuan.
At the same time, the steep appreciation of the U.S. dollar is leading countries to sell their U.S. foreign reserves to help prop up their currencies, in turn buying currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars to help generate higher yields.
The above animated graphic from James Eagle shows the rapid ascent of the U.S. dollar over the last century, and its gradual decline in recent years.
Dollar Dominance: A Brief History
In 1944, the U.S. dollar became the world’s reserve currency under the Bretton Woods Agreement. Over the first half of the century, the U.S. ran budget surpluses while increasing trade and economic ties with war-torn countries, expanding its influence as the world’s store of value.
Later through the 1960s, the U.S. dollar share of global foreign reserves rapidly increased as political allies stockpiled the dollar.
By 2000, dollar dominance hit a peak of 71% of global reserves. With the creation of the European Union a year earlier, countries such as China began increasing the share of euros in reserves. Between 2000 and 2005, the share of the dollar in China’s foreign exchange reserves fell by an estimated 15 percentage points.
The dollar began a long rally after the global financial crisis, which drove central banks to cut their dollar reserves to help bolster their currencies.
Fast-forward to today, and dollar reserves have fallen roughly 13 percentage points from their historical peak.
The State of the World’s Reserve Currency
In 2022, 16% of Russia’s export transactions were in yuan, up from almost nothing before the war. Brazil and Argentina have also begun adopting the Chinese currency for trade or reserve purposes. Still, the U.S. dollar makes up 80% of Brazil’s reserves.
Yet while the U.S. dollar has decreased in share of foreign reserves, it still has an immense influence in the world economy.
The majority of trade is invoiced in the U.S. dollar globally, a trend that has stayed fairly consistent over many decades. Between 1999-2019, 74% of trade in Asia was invoiced in dollars and in the Americas, it made up 96% of all invoicing.
Furthermore, almost 90% of foreign exchange transactions involve the U.S. dollar thanks to its liquidity.
However, countries are increasingly finding alternative options than the dollar. Today, Western businesses have begun settling trade with China in renminbi. Looking further ahead, digital currencies could provide options that don’t include the U.S. dollar.
Even more so, if the U.S. share of global GDP continues to shrink, the shift to a multipolar system could progress over this century.
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