Why Gold Mining Stocks Outperform Gold in Bull Markets
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Why Gold Mining Stocks Outperform Gold in Bull Markets

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Why Gold Mining Stocks Outperform Gold in Bull Markets

Why Gold Mining Stocks Outperform Gold in Bull Markets

Gold is highly revered for its great returns and resilience during economic downturns, but during gold bull markets there’s something that regularly provides even greater returns: the ownership of gold mining stocks.

Over the past 20 years, gold mining stocks have outperformed the price of gold bullion in bull markets, offering what can be seen as a leveraged play on gold’s price appreciation.

While gold miners offer more potential upside, they also have higher volatility and greater downside during dips, making market timing and strong hands all the more important.

This infographic comes to us from Sprott and compares the returns of gold stocks and gold bullion in bull markets. It also explains how gold stocks outperform thanks to profit expansion, and shows why there might be more upside for gold miners to come.

How Operating Leverage Benefits Gold Mining Companies

During the 2000-2011 gold bull market, the price of physical gold rose 550%. While you might think that number is hard to beat, over the same period of time gold mining equities (represented by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) returned more than 690%.

In the current gold bull market which started in 2015, gold mining stocks are up more than 182%, more than doubling gold bullion’s 78% returns.

This outperformance in bull markets is largely due to how gold mining companies use their operating leverage to maximize profits, resulting in their share prices appreciating.

Breaking Down Gold Mining Costs and Profits

As a gold mining company mines and produces gold, the gold is sold on the market fairly quickly to avoid the risk of gold’s price depreciating.

When the price of gold rises, miners immediately start to see greater profits from selling their ounces on the market. While the costs to mine gold also rise in bull markets, they rise less and at a slower rate.

The result of this is profit expansion: when operationally efficient gold mining companies are able to capture larger profits, resulting in increased operating and free cash flow.

Breakdown of Barrick Gold’s Profit per Ounce of Gold

YearAll-in Sustaining Costs/oz (in USD)Realized Gold Price/oz (in USD)Profit/oz (in USD)
2015$831$1,157$326
2016$730$1,248$518
2017$750$1,258$508
2018$806$1,267$461
2019$894$1,396$502
2020$984$1,748$764

During the current gold bull run which started in 2015, Barrick Gold’s average realized price per troy ounce of gold increased by 50%, while their all-in sustaining costs per troy ounce only went up by 18%.

This has resulted in the company increasing their profit per ounce of gold sold by a staggering 134% over the past six years.

Making the Most of Golden Times

While higher profit margins during bull markets are great, it’s up to the individual company to ensure the extra cash is being used prudently to efficiently support their operations.

Bull markets don’t last forever, and gold miners must use these prosperous times to strengthen their balance sheets, reward shareholders, and reinvest into projects which will provide future value and returns.

Dividend-paying gold stocks increase dividends to reward loyal shareholders, with the average dividend increase of top gold mining stocks in a bull market often doubling.

Over the decades, companies have gotten better at making the most of bull markets in order to be well-guarded for when gold prices stop appreciating, and eventually start declining.

Why Gold Mining Stocks May Still Be Undervalued

Even if gold mining stocks have already seen impressive returns over the past five years, there are some technical indicators which point to them still being undervalued compared to other equities and gold bullion.

  • The top 10 gold mining companies have seen their earnings per share estimates almost triple in the past two years.
  • The top 20 S&P 500 companies have seen around a -15% decline in their earnings per share estimates.

Along with having better earnings per share compared to the top U.S. equities, gold mining stocks may also be undervalued compared to gold bullion.

The gold mining stocks to gold bullion ratio is at historically low levels after having dropped more than 60% following the 2008 financial crisis. While gold bullion is increasingly seen as a safe haven asset for investors, gold miners are still overlooked despite their strong technicals.

Gold and Gold Miners’ Role in the Future Economy

As money printing has been the Federal Reserve’s main answer to an increasingly volatile economic climate, gold and its producers are set to play a crucial role in helping investors preserve their wealth.

Gold has yet again outperformed just about every other asset class in 2020, and gold miners offer even greater returns for those willing to manage the additional risk they present.

Gold mining stocks are much more volatile compared to gold bullion, and have a variety of additional risks dependent on their company structure, jurisdiction of operations, and operational efficiency. But for investors who are looking for exceptional returns in gold bull markets, they can be an alluring option.

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Mining

Visualizing the New Era of Gold Mining

This infographic highlights the need for new gold mining projects and shows the next generation of America’s gold deposits.

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The following content is sponsored by NOVAGOLD
gold mining

Visualizing the New Era of Gold Mining

Between 2011 and 2020, the number of major gold discoveries fell by 70% relative to 2001-2010. 

The lack of discoveries, alongside stagnating gold production, has cast a shadow of doubt on the future of gold supply. 

This infographic sponsored by Novagold highlights the need for new gold mining projects with a focus on the company’s Donlin Gold project in Alaska.

The Current State of Gold Production

Between 2010 and 2021, gold production increased steadily until 2018, before leveling and falling.

YearGold Production, tonnesYoY % Change
20102,560-
20112,6603.9%
20122,6901.1%
20132,8004.1%
20142,9906.8%
20153,1003.7%
20163,1100.3%
20173,2303.9%
20183,3002.2%
20193,3000.0%
20203,030-8.2%
20213,000-1.0%

Along with a small decrease in gold production from 2020 levels, there were no new major gold discoveries in 2021. Meanwhile, annual demand for the yellow metal increased by 10%, up from 3,651 tonnes to 4,020 tonnes

The fall in production and long-term lack of gold discoveries point towards a possible imbalance in gold supply and demand. This calls for the introduction of new gold development projects that can fill the supply-demand gap in the future. 

Sustaining Supply: Gold For the Future

Jurisdictions play an important role when looking for projects that could sustain gold production well into the future.

From political stability to trustworthy legal systems, the characteristics of a jurisdiction can make or break mining projects. Amid ongoing market uncertainty, political turmoil, and resource nationalism, projects in safe jurisdictions offer a better investment opportunity for investors and mining companies. 

As of 2021, seven of the top 10 mining jurisdictions for investment were located in North America, according to the Fraser Institute. Here’s a look at the top five gold-focused development projects in the region, based on measured and indicated (M&I) gold resources: 

ProjectM&I Gold Resource, million ounces*Grade (grams/tonne)Location
KSM88.4Moz0.51g/tBritish Columbia 🇨🇦
Donlin Gold**39.0Moz2.24g/tAlaska 🇺🇸
Livengood13.6Moz0.60g/tAlaska 🇺🇸
Côté Gold13.6Moz0.96g/tOntario 🇨🇦
Blackwater11.7Moz0.61g/tBritish Columbia 🇨🇦

*Inclusive of mineral reserves. **See cautionary statement regarding Donlin Gold’s mineral reserves and resources.

Located in Alaska, one of the world’s safest mining jurisdictions, Novagold’s Donlin Gold project has the highest average grade of gold among these major projects. For every tonne of ore, Donlin Gold offers 2.24 grams of gold, which is more than twice the global average grade of 1.03g/t. 

Additionally, Donlin Gold is the second-largest gold-focused development project in the Americas, with over 39 million ounces of gold in M&I resources inclusive of reserves. 

Novagold is focused on the Donlin Gold project in equal partnership with Barrick Gold. Click here to learn more now

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