Global COVID Containment: Confirmed Cases, Updated Daily
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Global COVID-19 Containment: Confirmed Cases, Updated Daily

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Global COVID Containment: Confirmed Cases, Updated Daily

Sometimes, it helps to gain a fresh perspective.

Since the pandemic began, there have been innumerable tracking resources made available online, but rarely do they paint a complete picture of a country’s containment progress.

How Much Progress Is Really Being Made

Featured above, this continuously updated chart from Our World in Data provides a more complete look at the efficacy of COVID-19 containment strategies, sorted by country.

It is a variation of the Epidemic Curve (or “epi curve”), showing confirmed COVID-19 cases per country in relation to their testing rates—what’s revealed is the strength of each country’s containment strategy.

Only a fraction of total cases–those confirmed by a test–is known. This is why we spent recent months building the database and the visualization tool to make this variation of the epidemic curve possible.

— Our World in Data

Why Look at it This Way? Adequate Benchmarking

Countries vary widely in how they monitor and report on COVID-19. Cases in this particular chart were confirmed via laboratory testing, and the data covers 66% of the globe’s population.

Depending on a country’s containment efforts, confirmed cases can differ dramatically from total cases. To get a better idea of that difference, Our World in Data looked closer at the extent of testing. As they report, the World Health Organization considers an adequate benchmark to be 10-30 tests per confirmed case. And for those countries that experience larger outbreaks, there must be more tests conducted per confirmed case.

What the COVID Test-to-Case Ratio Tells Us

  • Line Trajectory: In this chart, rising lines show that the average number of laboratory-confirmed cases has increased over time, and vice versa for falling lines. Beyond flattening the curve, the end game is to have all of those lines reach zero.
  • Blue Lines: The darker the blue line, the more likely that the line is an accurate indicator, as thousands of tests have been administered per confirmed case. The more blue lines this chart shows over time, the better for us all.
  • Red Lines: By contrast, the warmer the color of the line, the fewer tests are being administered per confirmed case, and it is less likely to be an accurate measure of COVID-19 cases. Red lines, for example, indicate that only five tests are conducted for every confirmed case, suggesting that the count is not accurate and that many cases are going unreported.

Epi Curve Scenario Examples

Consider these three scenarios in the diagram above, and hover over countries in the main visualization to compare:

  • Country A: Winning the fight against COVID-19.
    These countries, like New Zealand, have steadily increased the number of tests per confirmed case. Country A administers hundreds or thousands of tests per confirmed case. The likelihood of missed cases is far lower, most cases are accounted for, and they can confidently state they are winning the fight against COVID-19.
  • Country B: A severe, prolonged outbreak.
    In comparison, countries like the U.S. have experienced a steady rise in confirmed cases. They also have lower rates of testing—only five tests per confirmed case. Country B cases are likely to be higher than the number reported, a fact that is especially concerning given that the U.S. has already surpassed the rest of the world’s countries in confirmed cases.
  • Country C: A volatile scenario.
    While confirmed cases decrease, there is much room for doubt. In Country C (South Africa for instance), confirmed cases are decreasing, but very few tests are administered. Unfortunately, this indicates there are many unrepresented cases. Country C probably has a larger problem than its downward trajectory would indicate.

Cases Per Million People

From a different angle, we can see daily new COVID-19 cases per capita. This gives us a better sense of how countries compare in terms of confirmed cases.

Countries like Thailand, New Zealand, and South Korea all show relatively low rates of COVID-19 per capita, as well as high levels of testing. Conversely, countries like Spain and Kuwait reveal high levels of confirmed cases per capita and extremely low testing rates.

Another Perspective for Good Measure

For a holistic view of testing, the map below shows us the daily number of tests for each newly confirmed COVID-19 case, based on a rolling 7-day average.

Countries like Norway, Australia, and Canada reveal strong testing-to-confirmed-case ratios. In contrast, countries like Bolivia and the Philippines reveal the probability of out-of-control outbreaks.

Due to lower levels of testing in relation to confirmed cases, countries in red are more likely to leave cases unreported.

Making Sense of the Unknown

Although charts like these allow us to look at relationships between critical variables, there are no guarantees of what will come of this outbreak or any second waves.

The only certainty right now, is uncertainty. But with visualizations like this one—updated daily—we can at least stay up-to-speed with the knowledge curve.

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Misc

Animation: How the European Map Has Changed Over 2,400 Years

The history of Europe is breathtakingly complex, but this animation helps makes sense of 2,400 years of change on the European map.

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How the European Map Has Changed Over 2,400 Years

The history of Europe is breathtakingly complex. While there are rare exceptions like Andorra and Portugal, which have had remarkably static borders for hundreds of years, jurisdiction over portions of the continent’s landmass have changed hands innumerable times.

Today’s video comes to us from YouTube channel Cottereau, and it shows the evolution of European map borders starting from 400 BC. Empires rise and fall, invasions sweep across the continent, and modern countries slowly begin to take shape (with the added bonus of an extremely dramatic instrumental).

Below are nine highlights and catalysts that shifted the dividing lines of the European map:

146 BC – A Year of Conquest

146 BC was a year of conquest and expansion for the Roman Republic. The fall of Carthage left the Romans in control of territory in North Africa, and the ransack and destruction of the Greek city-state of Corinth also kickstarted an era of Roman influence in that region. These decisive victories paved the way for the Roman Empire’s eventual domination of the Mediterranean.

117 AD – Peak Roman Empire

The peak of the Roman Empire is one of the more dramatic moments shown on this animated European map. At its height, under Trajan, the Roman Empire was a colossal 1.7 million square miles (quite a feat in an era without motorized vehicles and modern communication tools). This enormous empire remained mostly intact until 395, when it was irreparably split into Eastern and Western regions.

Extent of the Roman Empire on European Map

370 AD – The Arrival of the Huns

Spurred on by severe drought conditions in Central Asia, the Huns reached Europe and found a Roman Empire weakened by currency debasement, economic instability, overspending, and increasing incursions from rivals along its borders.

The Huns waged their first attack on the Eastern Roman Empire in 395, but it was not until half a century later—under the leadership of Attila the Hun—that hordes pushed deeper into Europe, sacking and razing cities along the way. The Romans would later get their revenge when they attacked the quarreling Goths and Huns, bouncing the latter out of Central Europe.

1241 – The Mongol Invasion of Europe

In the mid-13th century, the “Golden Horde” led by grandsons of Genghis Khan, roared into Russia and Eastern Europe sacking cities along the way. Facing invasion from formidable Mongol forces, central European princes temporarily placed their regional conflicts aside to defend their territory. Though the Mongols were slowly pushed eastward, they loomed large on the fringes of Europe until almost the 16th century.

1362 – Lithuania

Today, Lithuania is one of Europe’s smallest countries, but at its peak in the middle ages, it was one of the largest states on the continent. A pivotal moment for Lithuania came after a decisive win at the Battle of Blue Waters. This victory stifled the expansion of the Golden Horde, and brought present-day Ukraine into its sphere of influence.

1648 – Kleinstaaterei

The end of the Holy Roman Empire highlights the extreme territorial fragmentation in Germany and neighboring regions, in an era referred to as Kleinstaaterei.

European map with Holy Roman fragments

Even as coherent nation states formed around it, the Holy Roman Empire and its remnants wouldn’t coalesce until Germany rose from the wreckage of the Franco-Prussian War in 1871. Unification helped position Germany as a major power, and by 1900 the country had the largest economy in Europe.

1919 – The Ottoman Empire

The Ottoman Empire—a fixture in Eastern Europe for hundreds of years—was in its waning years by the beginning of the 20th century. The empire had ceded territory in two costly wars with Italy and Balkan states, and by the time the dust cleared on WWI, the borders of the newly minted nation of Turkey began at the furthest edge of continental Europe.

1942 – Expanding and Contracting Germany

At the furthest extent of Axis territory in World War II, Germany and Italy controlled a vast portion of continental Europe. The map below shows occupied land and areas of influence at the height of Germany’s territorial expansion.

Europe at the height of German military expansion

After the war, Germany again became fragmented into occupation zones—this time, overseen by the United States, France, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union. Germany would not be made whole again until 1990, when a weakening Soviet Union loosened its grip on East Germany.

1991 – Soviet Dissolution

In the decades following WWII, the political boundaries of the European map remained relatively stable—that is, until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Almost overnight, the country’s entire western border splintered into independent nations. When the dust settled, there were 15 breakaway republics, six of which were in Europe.

Soviet Union successions

Bonus: If you liked the video above, be sure to watch this year-by-year account of who ruled territories across Europe.

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Misc

Mapped: Second Primary Languages Around the World

This fascinating map highlights the second most commonly spoken primary language in almost nearly every country.

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Second Languages Around the World Shareable

Mapped: Second Primary Languages Around the World

After the primary language, what second languages are used as native tongues in your country?

The answer reveals a lot about history and location. Whether through immigration, colonization, or local culture, a primary language can either spread around the world or remain rooted in place.

This map from MoveHub shows the second most commonly spoken primary language in most countries, using data from the CIA World Factbook and Wikipedia as of February 2021.

The Difference Between Primary and Secondary Languages

First, it’s important to differentiate between primary languages and secondary languages.

A primary language—also known as a first or native language—is the language we use most frequently to communicate. These are languages we are usually born with, have a lot of exposure to, and use at home.

On the other hand, a secondary language is one we learn or pick up after our primary language. In many countries, English is the most commonly learned, with close to 1 billion speakers.

But a map of common second languages can simply show just how many countries prioritize learning English, the de-facto international language in many organizations. Instead, this map highlights the movement of people by showing the second-most common primary language.

The Second Most Common Primary Languages by Country

Even when filtering by primary language use, however, English and other Indo-European languages dominate the world.

With 55 countries speaking it as the second-most common primary language, English came out on top.

Top 10 Most Popular Second Primary LanguagesNumber of Countries
English55
French14
Russian13
Spanish8
Creole8
Arabic6
Kurdish4
Portugese4
Italian3
Quechua3

The use of English as a second primary language was primarily concentrated in Western Europe, Northern Africa, and Southeast Asia and Oceania.

Similarly to second-place French with 14 countries and third-place Russian with 13 countries, English was most common in proximity to English-speaking countries or where there was a history of immigration.

Other second-most common primary languages highlighted different cultures within countries, such as China’s second-most common language Cantonese. Alternatively, they showed the primary indigenous language before colonization, such as the Quechua languages in South America.

What other interesting or surprising language patterns can you spot in the map above?

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