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Global COVID-19 Containment: Confirmed Cases, Updated Daily

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Global COVID Containment: Confirmed Cases, Updated Daily

Sometimes, it helps to gain a fresh perspective.

Since the pandemic began, there have been innumerable tracking resources made available online, but rarely do they paint a complete picture of a country’s containment progress.

How Much Progress Is Really Being Made

Featured above, this continuously updated chart from Our World in Data provides a more complete look at the efficacy of COVID-19 containment strategies, sorted by country.

It is a variation of the Epidemic Curve (or “epi curve”), showing confirmed COVID-19 cases per country in relation to their testing rates—what’s revealed is the strength of each country’s containment strategy.

Only a fraction of total cases–those confirmed by a test–is known. This is why we spent recent months building the database and the visualization tool to make this variation of the epidemic curve possible.

— Our World in Data

Why Look at it This Way? Adequate Benchmarking

Countries vary widely in how they monitor and report on COVID-19. Cases in this particular chart were confirmed via laboratory testing, and the data covers 66% of the globe’s population.

Depending on a country’s containment efforts, confirmed cases can differ dramatically from total cases. To get a better idea of that difference, Our World in Data looked closer at the extent of testing. As they report, the World Health Organization considers an adequate benchmark to be 10-30 tests per confirmed case. And for those countries that experience larger outbreaks, there must be more tests conducted per confirmed case.

What the COVID Test-to-Case Ratio Tells Us

  • Line Trajectory: In this chart, rising lines show that the average number of laboratory-confirmed cases has increased over time, and vice versa for falling lines. Beyond flattening the curve, the end game is to have all of those lines reach zero.
  • Blue Lines: The darker the blue line, the more likely that the line is an accurate indicator, as thousands of tests have been administered per confirmed case. The more blue lines this chart shows over time, the better for us all.
  • Red Lines: By contrast, the warmer the color of the line, the fewer tests are being administered per confirmed case, and it is less likely to be an accurate measure of COVID-19 cases. Red lines, for example, indicate that only five tests are conducted for every confirmed case, suggesting that the count is not accurate and that many cases are going unreported.

Epi Curve Scenario Examples

Consider these three scenarios in the diagram above, and hover over countries in the main visualization to compare:

  • Country A: Winning the fight against COVID-19.
    These countries, like New Zealand, have steadily increased the number of tests per confirmed case. Country A administers hundreds or thousands of tests per confirmed case. The likelihood of missed cases is far lower, most cases are accounted for, and they can confidently state they are winning the fight against COVID-19.
  • Country B: A severe, prolonged outbreak.
    In comparison, countries like the U.S. have experienced a steady rise in confirmed cases. They also have lower rates of testing—only five tests per confirmed case. Country B cases are likely to be higher than the number reported, a fact that is especially concerning given that the U.S. has already surpassed the rest of the world’s countries in confirmed cases.
  • Country C: A volatile scenario.
    While confirmed cases decrease, there is much room for doubt. In Country C (South Africa for instance), confirmed cases are decreasing, but very few tests are administered. Unfortunately, this indicates there are many unrepresented cases. Country C probably has a larger problem than its downward trajectory would indicate.

Cases Per Million People

From a different angle, we can see daily new COVID-19 cases per capita. This gives us a better sense of how countries compare in terms of confirmed cases.

Countries like Thailand, New Zealand, and South Korea all show relatively low rates of COVID-19 per capita, as well as high levels of testing. Conversely, countries like Spain and Kuwait reveal high levels of confirmed cases per capita and extremely low testing rates.

Another Perspective for Good Measure

For a holistic view of testing, the map below shows us the daily number of tests for each newly confirmed COVID-19 case, based on a rolling 7-day average.

Countries like Norway, Australia, and Canada reveal strong testing-to-confirmed-case ratios. In contrast, countries like Bolivia and the Philippines reveal the probability of out-of-control outbreaks.

Due to lower levels of testing in relation to confirmed cases, countries in red are more likely to leave cases unreported.

Making Sense of the Unknown

Although charts like these allow us to look at relationships between critical variables, there are no guarantees of what will come of this outbreak or any second waves.

The only certainty right now, is uncertainty. But with visualizations like this one—updated daily—we can at least stay up-to-speed with the knowledge curve.

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Misc

These Powerful Maps Show the Extremes of U.S. Population Density

The U.S. population is spread across a huge amount of land, but its distribution is far from equal. These maps are a unique look at population density

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us cities population density equivalent map

America’s 328 million people are spread across a huge amount of territory, but the population density of various regions is far from equal.

It’s no secret that cities like New York have a vastly different population density than, say, a rural county in North Dakota. Even so, this interactive map by Ben Blatt of Slate helps visualize the stark contrast between urban and rural densities in a way that might intrigue you.

How many counties does it take to equal the population of these large urban areas? Let’s find out.

New York City’s Rural Equivalent

New York City (proper) Population: 8.42 million
New York City Population density: 27,547 persons / mi²

New York City became the largest city in the U.S. back in 1781 and has long been the country’s most densely packed urban center. Today, 1 in every 38 people living in the United States resides in The Big Apple.

new york city population density equivalent map

For the northwestern counties above to match the population of New York City, it takes a land area around the size of Mongolia. The region shown above is 645,934 mi², and runs through portions of 12 different states.

In order to match the population of the entire New York metropolitan area, which holds 18 million people and includes adjacent cities and towns in New York state, New Jersey, and Connecticut, the above equivalent area would have to be even more massive.

Los Angeles County’s Rural Equivalent

LA County Population: 10.04 million
LA County Population density: 2,100 persons / mi²

Los Angeles County is home to the 88 incorporated cities that make up the urban area of Los Angeles.

Even excluding nearby population centers such as Anaheim, San Bernadino, and Riverside (which are located in adjacent counties) it is still the most populous county in the United States, with over 10 million inhabitants.

los angeles county population density equivalent map

To match this enormous scale in Middle America, it would take 298 counties covering an area of 471,941 mi².

Chicago’s Rural Equivalent

Chicago Metropolitan Area Population: 9.53 million
Chicago Metropolitan Area Population density: 1,318 persons / mi²

Next up is America’s third largest city, Chicago. For this visualization, we’re using the Chicago metropolitan area, which covers the full extent of the city’s population.

chicago population density equivalent map

To match the scale of the population of the Windy City, we would need to add up every county in New Mexico, along with large portions of Colorado, Arizona, and Texas.

Turning the Tables?

Conversely, what if we transported the people in the country’s least densely populated counties into the middle of an urban center?

RankCountyPopulation
1Kalawao County, Hawaii86
2Loving County, Texas169
3King County, Texas272
4Kenedy County, Texas404
5Arthur County, Nebraska463

As it turns out, the total population of the five least populated counties is just 1,394—roughly the same amount of people that live on the average Manhattan block.

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Visualized: Comparing the Titanic to a Modern Cruise Ship

The sheer size of the Titanic was a sight to behold in 1912, but over 100 years later, how does this vessel compare to a modern cruise ship?

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Remembering the Tragedy of the Titanic

When the Titanic was completed on April 2, 1912, it was the largest and perhaps most luxurious ship in the world. The vessel could hold over 3,300 people including crew members, and boasted various amenities including a swimming pool and squash court.

The Titanic’s impressive size attracted many of the world’s wealthiest individuals, and on April 10, 1912, it set out on its maiden voyage. Just five days later, the ship sank after hitting an iceberg, resulting in more than 1,500 deaths.

It’s been over 100 years since the Titanic’s demise, so how have passenger ships evolved?

To find out, we’ve visualized it beside Royal Caribbean’s Symphony of the Seas, currently the world’s largest cruise ship.

The Size of the Titanic, in Perspective

The following table lists the dimensions of both ships to provide a better understanding of the Titanic’s relative size.

 RMS TitanicSymphony of the Seas
Year Built19122018
Length882ft (269m) 1,184ft (361m)
Width92ft (28m)215ft (66m)
Height175ft (53m)238ft (73m)
Internal volume46,328 gross register tonnage (grt)228,081 gross tonnage (gt)
Passengers2,4356,680
Crew8922,200

Source: Owlcation, Insider
Note: Gross register tonnage (grt) is a historic measure of a ship’s internal volume. This metric was replaced by gross tonnage (gt) on July 18, 1982.

One of the biggest differences between these two ships is width, with the latter being more than twice as wide. This is likely due to the vast amenities housed within the Symphony of the Seas, which includes 24 pools, 22 restaurants, 2 rock climbing walls, an ice-skating rink, and more. With accommodations for 6,680 passengers, the Symphony of the Seas also supports a crew that is 147% larger.

The Symphony of the Seas clearly surpasses the Titanic in terms of size, but there’s also a substantial difference in cost. When converted to today’s dollars, the bill for the Titanic equates to roughly $400 million, less than half of the Symphony of the Seas’ cost of $1.35 billion.

Lessons Learned from the Disaster

Inadequate safety preparations were a contributor to the Titanic’s high death toll. During its journey, the vessel carried enough lifeboats to accommodate just 33% of its total passengers and crew. This was legal at the time, as regulations based a ship’s number of required lifeboats on its weight, rather than its passenger capacity.

To make matters worse, investigations determined that the Titanic’s lifeboats had not been used to their full capacity, and that a scheduled lifeboat drill had been cancelled by the ship’s captain. These shortfalls, among others, paved the way for numerous improvements in maritime safety regulation.

These include the creation of the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea Treaty (SOLAS) in 1914, which is still in force today. Regarded as the most important international treaty on ship safety, SOLAS has been updated numerous times and is followed by 164 states, which together flag 99% of merchant ships (by gross tonnage) on the high seas today.

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