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Global COVID-19 Containment: Confirmed Cases, Updated Daily

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Global COVID Containment: Confirmed Cases, Updated Daily

Sometimes, it helps to gain a fresh perspective.

Since the pandemic began, there have been innumerable tracking resources made available online, but rarely do they paint a complete picture of a country’s containment progress.

How Much Progress Is Really Being Made

Featured above, this continuously updated chart from Our World in Data provides a more complete look at the efficacy of COVID-19 containment strategies, sorted by country.

It is a variation of the Epidemic Curve (or “epi curve”), showing confirmed COVID-19 cases per country in relation to their testing rates—what’s revealed is the strength of each country’s containment strategy.

Only a fraction of total cases–those confirmed by a test–is known. This is why we spent recent months building the database and the visualization tool to make this variation of the epidemic curve possible.

— Our World in Data

Why Look at it This Way? Adequate Benchmarking

Countries vary widely in how they monitor and report on COVID-19. Cases in this particular chart were confirmed via laboratory testing, and the data covers 66% of the globe’s population.

Depending on a country’s containment efforts, confirmed cases can differ dramatically from total cases. To get a better idea of that difference, Our World in Data looked closer at the extent of testing. As they report, the World Health Organization considers an adequate benchmark to be 10-30 tests per confirmed case. And for those countries that experience larger outbreaks, there must be more tests conducted per confirmed case.

What the COVID Test-to-Case Ratio Tells Us

  • Line Trajectory: In this chart, rising lines show that the average number of laboratory-confirmed cases has increased over time, and vice versa for falling lines. Beyond flattening the curve, the end game is to have all of those lines reach zero.
  • Blue Lines: The darker the blue line, the more likely that the line is an accurate indicator, as thousands of tests have been administered per confirmed case. The more blue lines this chart shows over time, the better for us all.
  • Red Lines: By contrast, the warmer the color of the line, the fewer tests are being administered per confirmed case, and it is less likely to be an accurate measure of COVID-19 cases. Red lines, for example, indicate that only five tests are conducted for every confirmed case, suggesting that the count is not accurate and that many cases are going unreported.

Epi Curve Scenario Examples

Consider these three scenarios in the diagram above, and hover over countries in the main visualization to compare:

  • Country A: Winning the fight against COVID-19.
    These countries, like New Zealand, have steadily increased the number of tests per confirmed case. Country A administers hundreds or thousands of tests per confirmed case. The likelihood of missed cases is far lower, most cases are accounted for, and they can confidently state they are winning the fight against COVID-19.
  • Country B: A severe, prolonged outbreak.
    In comparison, countries like the U.S. have experienced a steady rise in confirmed cases. They also have lower rates of testing—only five tests per confirmed case. Country B cases are likely to be higher than the number reported, a fact that is especially concerning given that the U.S. has already surpassed the rest of the world’s countries in confirmed cases.
  • Country C: A volatile scenario.
    While confirmed cases decrease, there is much room for doubt. In Country C (South Africa for instance), confirmed cases are decreasing, but very few tests are administered. Unfortunately, this indicates there are many unrepresented cases. Country C probably has a larger problem than its downward trajectory would indicate.

Cases Per Million People

From a different angle, we can see daily new COVID-19 cases per capita. This gives us a better sense of how countries compare in terms of confirmed cases.

Countries like Thailand, New Zealand, and South Korea all show relatively low rates of COVID-19 per capita, as well as high levels of testing. Conversely, countries like Spain and Kuwait reveal high levels of confirmed cases per capita and extremely low testing rates.

Another Perspective for Good Measure

For a holistic view of testing, the map below shows us the daily number of tests for each newly confirmed COVID-19 case, based on a rolling 7-day average.

Countries like Norway, Australia, and Canada reveal strong testing-to-confirmed-case ratios. In contrast, countries like Bolivia and the Philippines reveal the probability of out-of-control outbreaks.

Due to lower levels of testing in relation to confirmed cases, countries in red are more likely to leave cases unreported.

Making Sense of the Unknown

Although charts like these allow us to look at relationships between critical variables, there are no guarantees of what will come of this outbreak or any second waves.

The only certainty right now, is uncertainty. But with visualizations like this one—updated daily—we can at least stay up-to-speed with the knowledge curve.

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Visualized: A Global Risk Assessment of 2021 And Beyond

Which risks are top of mind in 2021? We visualize the World Economic Forum’s risk assessment for top global risks by impact and livelihood.

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Visualized: A Global Risk Assessment of 2021 And Beyond

Risk is all around us. After the events of 2020, it’s not surprising that the level and variety of risks we face have become more pronounced than ever.

Every year, the World Economic Forum analyzes the top risks in the world in its Global Risks Report. Risks were identified based on 800+ responses of surveyed leaders across various levels of expertise, organizations, and regional distribution.

Which risks are top of mind in 2021?

The World’s Top Risks by Likelihood and Impact

According to WEF’s risk assessment methodology, all the global risks in 2021 fall into the following broad categories:

  • 🔵 Economic
  • 🟢 Environmental
  • 🟠 Geopolitical
  • 🔴 Societal
  • 🟣 Technological

It goes without saying that infectious diseases have now become one of the top societal risks on both metrics of likelihood and impact.

That said, environmental risks continue to dominate the leaderboard, accounting for five of the top 10 risks by impact, especially when it comes to climate action failure.

Several countries are off-track in meeting emissions goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, while the pandemic has also delayed progress in the shift towards a carbon-neutral economy. Meanwhile, biodiversity loss is occurring at unprecedented rates.

RankTop Risks by LikelihoodTop Risks by Impact
#1🟢Extreme weather🔴Infectious diseases
#2🟢Climate action failure🟢Climate action failure
#3🟢Human environmental damage🟠Weapons of mass destruction
#4🔴Infectious diseases🟢Biodiversity loss
#5🟢Biodiversity loss🟢Natural resource crises
#6🟣Digital power concentration🟢Human environmental damage
#7🟣Digital inequality🔴Livelihood crises
#8🟠Interstate relations fracture🟢Extreme weather
#9🟣Cybersecurity failure🔵Debt crises
#10🔴Livelihood crises🟣IT Infrastructure breakdown

As for other risks, the prospect of weapons of mass destruction ranks in third place for potential impact. In the global arms race, a single misstep would trigger severe consequences on civil and political stability.

New Risks in 2021

While many of the risks included in the Global Risks Report 2021 are familiar to those who have read the editions of years past, there are a flurry of new entries to the list this year.

Here are some of the most interesting ones in the risk assessment, sorted by category:

Societal Risks

COVID-19 has resulted in a myriad of knock-on societal risks, from youth disillusionment and mental health deterioration to livelihood crises. The first two risks in particular go hand-in-hand, as “pandemials” (youth aged 15-24) are staring down a turbulent future. This generation is more likely to report high distress from disrupted educational and economic prospects.

At the same time, as countries prepare for widespread immunization against COVID-19, another related societal risk is the backlash against science. The WEF identifies vaccines and immunization as subjects susceptible to disinformation and denial of scientific evidence.

Economic Risks

As monetary stimulus was kicked into high gear to prop up markets and support many closed businesses and quarantined families, the economic outlook seems more fragile than ever. Debt-to-GDP ratios continue to rise across advanced economies—if GDP growth stagnates for too long, a potential debt crisis could see many businesses and major nations default on their debt.

With greater stress accumulating on a range of major industries such as travel and hospitality, the economy risks a build-up of “zombie” firms that drag down overall productivity. Despite this, market valuations and asset prices continue to rise, with equity markets rewarding investors betting on a swift recovery so far.

Technological Risks

Last but not least, COVID-19 has raised the alert on various technological risks. Despite the accelerated shift towards remote work and digitalization of entire industries, the reality is that digital inequality leaves those with lower digital literacy behind—worsening existing inequalities.

Big Tech is also bloating even further, growing its digital power concentration. The market share some companies hold in their respective sectors, such as Amazon in online retail, threatens to erode the agency of other players.

Assessing the Top 10 Risks On the Horizon

Back in mid-2020, the WEF attempted to quantify the biggest risks over an 18-month period, with a prolonged economic recession emerging on top.

In this report’s risk assessment, global risks are further classified by how soon their resulting threats are expected to occur. Weapons of mass destruction remain the top risk, though on a much longer scale of up to 10 years in the future.

RankRisk%Time Horizon
#1🟠Weapons of mass destruction62.7Long-term (5-10 years)
#2🔴Infectious diseases58Short-term risks (0-2 years)
#3🔴Livelihood crises55.1Short-term risks (0-2 years)
#4🔵Asset bubble burst53.3Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#5🟣 IT infrastructure breakdown53.3Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#6🔵Price instability52.9Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#7🟢Extreme weather events52.7Short-term risks (0-2 years)
#8🔵Commodity shocks52.7Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#9🔵Debt crises52.3Medium-term risks (3-5 years)
#10🟠State collapse51.8Long-term (5-10 years)

Through this perspective, COVID-19 (and its variants) remains high in the next two years as the world scrambles to return to normal.

It’s also clear that more economic risks are taking center stage, from an asset bubble burst to price instability that could have a profound effect over the next five years.

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Visualizing Countries by Share of Earth’s Surface

There are 510 million km² of area on the Earth, but less than 30% of this is land. Here’s the share countries make up of the Earth’s surface.

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countries by share of earth's surface

Visualizing Countries by Share of Earth’s Surface

There are over 510 million square kilometers of area on the surface of Earth, but less than 30% of this is covered by land. The rest is water, in the form of vast oceans.

Today’s visualization uses data primarily from the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) to rank the world’s countries by their share of Earth’s surface.

Breakdown of Countries Share of Earth’s Surface

The largest countries by surface area are Russia (3.35%), Canada (1.96%), and China (1.88%).

Together they occupy roughly 7.2% of Earth’s surface. Russia is so big that even if we divided the country between its Asian and European sections, those new regions would still be the largest in their respective continents.

Country / DependencyTotal in km² (mi²)Percentage of Earth's Surface
Russia17,098,246 (6,601,670)3.352%
Antarctica14,000,000 (5,400,000)2.745%
Canada9,984,670 (3,855,100)1.958%
China9,596,961 (3,705,407)1.881%
United States9,525,067 (3,677,649)1.867%
Brazil8,515,767 (3,287,956)1.670%
Australia7,692,024 (2,969,907)1.508%
India3,287,263 (1,269,219)0.644%
Argentina2,780,400 (1,073,500)0.545%
Kazakhstan2,724,900 (1,052,100)0.534%
Algeria2,381,741 (919,595)0.467%
D.R. Congo2,344,858 (905,355)0.460%
Greenland (Denmark)2,166,086 (836,330)0.425%
Saudi Arabia2,149,690 (830,000)0.421%
Mexico1,964,375 (758,449)0.385%
Indonesia1,910,931 (737,815)0.375%
Sudan1,861,484 (718,723)0.365%
Libya1,759,540 (679,360)0.345%
Iran1,648,195 (636,372)0.323%
Mongolia1,564,110 (603,910)0.307%
Peru1,285,216 (496,225)0.252%
Chad1,284,000 (496,000)0.252%
Niger1,267,000 (489,000)0.248%
Angola1,246,700 (481,400)0.244%
Mali1,240,192 (478,841)0.243%
South Africa1,221,037 (471,445)0.239%
Colombia1,141,748 (440,831)0.224%
Ethiopia1,104,300 (426,400)0.216%
Bolivia1,098,581 (424,164)0.215%
Mauritania1,030,700 (398,000)0.202%
Egypt1,002,450 (387,050)0.197%
Tanzania945,087 (364,900)0.185%
Nigeria923,768 (356,669)0.181%
Venezuela916,445 (353,841)0.180%
Pakistan907,843 (350,520)0.178%
Namibia825,615 (318,772)0.162%
Mozambique801,590 (309,500)0.157%
Turkey783,562 (302,535)0.154%
Chile756,102 (291,933)0.148%
Zambia752,612 (290,585)0.148%
Myanmar676,578 (261,228)0.133%
Afghanistan652,230 (251,830)0.128%
South Sudan644,329 (248,777)0.126%
Somalia637,657 (246,201)0.125%
Central African Republic622,984 (240,535)0.122%
Ukraine603,500 (233,000)0.118%
Madagascar587,041 (226,658)0.115%
Botswana581,730 (224,610)0.114%
Kenya580,367 (224,081)0.114%
France543,940 (210,020)0.107%
Yemen527,968 (203,850)0.104%
Thailand513,120 (198,120)0.101%
Spain505,992 (195,365)0.099%
Turkmenistan488,100 (188,500)0.096%
Cameroon475,442 (183,569)0.093%
Papua New Guinea462,840 (178,700)0.091%
Sweden450,295 (173,860)0.088%
Uzbekistan447,400 (172,700)0.088%
Morocco446,550 (172,410)0.088%
Iraq438,317 (169,235)0.086%
Paraguay406,752 (157,048)0.080%
Zimbabwe390,757 (150,872)0.077%
Norway385,207 (148,729)0.076%
Japan377,976 (145,937)0.074%
Germany357,114 (137,882)0.070%
Republic of the Congo342,000 (132,000)0.067%
Finland338,424 (130,666)0.066%
Vietnam331,212 (127,882)0.065%
Malaysia330,803 (127,724)0.065%
Ivory Coast322,463 (124,504)0.063%
Poland312,696 (120,733)0.061%
Oman309,500 (119,500)0.061%
Italy301,339 (116,348)0.059%
Philippines300,000 (120,000)0.059%
Ecuador276,841 (106,889)0.054%
Burkina Faso274,222 (105,878)0.054%
New Zealand270,467 (104,428)0.053%
Gabon267,668 (103,347)0.052%
Guinea245,857 (94,926)0.048%
United Kingdom242,495 (93,628)0.048%
Uganda241,550 (93,260)0.047%
Ghana238,533 (92,098)0.047%
Romania238,397 (92,046)0.047%
Laos236,800 (91,400)0.046%
Guyana214,969 (83,000)0.042%
Belarus207,600 (80,200)0.041%
Kyrgyzstan199,951 (77,202)0.039%
Senegal196,722 (75,955)0.039%
Syria185,180 (71,500)0.036%
Cambodia181,035 (69,898)0.035%
Uruguay176,215 (68,037)0.035%
Somaliland176,120 (68,000)0.035%
Suriname163,820 (63,250)0.032%
Tunisia163,610 (63,170)0.032%
Bangladesh148,460 (57,320)0.029%
Nepal147,181 (56,827)0.029%
Tajikistan143,100 (55,300)0.028%
Greece131,957 (50,949)0.026%
Nicaragua130,373 (50,337)0.026%
North Korea120,540 (46,540)0.024%
Malawi118,484 (45,747)0.023%
Eritrea117,600 (45,400)0.023%
Benin114,763 (44,310)0.022%
Honduras112,492 (43,433)0.022%
Liberia111,369 (43,000)0.022%
Bulgaria111,002 (42,858)0.022%
Cuba109,884 (42,426)0.022%
Guatemala108,889 (42,042)0.021%
Iceland103,000 (40,000)0.020%
South Korea100,210 (38,690)0.020%
Hungary93,028 (35,918)0.018%
Portugal92,226 (35,609)0.018%
Jordan89,342 (34,495)0.018%
Serbia88,361 (34,116)0.017%
Azerbaijan86,600 (33,400)0.017%
Austria83,871 (32,383)0.016%
United Arab Emirates83,600 (32,300)0.016%
Czech Republic78,865 (30,450)0.015%
Panama75,417 (29,119)0.015%
Sierra Leone71,740 (27,700)0.014%
Ireland70,273 (27,133)0.014%
Georgia69,700 (26,900)0.014%
Sri Lanka65,610 (25,330)0.013%
Lithuania65,300 (25,200)0.013%
Latvia64,559 (24,926)0.013%
Togo56,785 (21,925)0.011%
Croatia56,594 (21,851)0.011%
Bosnia and Herzegovina51,209 (19,772)0.010%
Costa Rica51,100 (19,700)0.010%
Slovakia49,037 (18,933)0.010%
Dominican Republic48,671 (18,792)0.010%
Estonia45,227 (17,462)0.009%
Denmark43,094 (16,639)0.008%
Netherlands41,850 (16,160)0.008%
Switzerland41,284 (15,940)0.008%
Bhutan38,394 (14,824)0.008%
Taiwan36,193 (13,974)0.007%
Guinea-Bissau36,125 (13,948)0.007%
Moldova33,846 (13,068)0.007%
Belgium30,528 (11,787)0.006%
Lesotho30,355 (11,720)0.006%
Armenia29,743 (11,484)0.006%
Solomon Islands28,896 (11,157)0.006%
Albania28,748 (11,100)0.006%
Equatorial Guinea28,051 (10,831)0.005%
Burundi27,834 (10,747)0.005%
Haiti27,750 (10,710)0.005%
Rwanda26,338 (10,169)0.005%
North Macedonia25,713 (9,928)0.005%
Djibouti23,200 (9,000)0.005%
Belize22,966 (8,867)0.005%
El Salvador21,041 (8,124)0.004%
Israel20,770 (8,020)0.004%
Slovenia20,273 (7,827)0.004%
Fiji18,272 (7,055)0.004%
Kuwait17,818 (6,880)0.003%
Eswatini17,364 (6,704)0.003%
East Timor14,919 (5,760)0.003%
The Bahamas13,943 (5,383)0.003%
Montenegro13,812 (5,333)0.003%
Vanuatu12,189 (4,706)0.002%
Qatar11,586 (4,473)0.002%
The Gambia11,295 (4,361)0.002%
Jamaica10,991 (4,244)0.002%
Kosovo10,887 (4,203)0.002%
Lebanon10,452 (4,036)0.002%
Cyprus9,251 (3,572)0.002%
State of Palestine6,020 (2,320)0.001%
Brunei5,765 (2,226)0.001%
Trinidad and Tobago5,130 (1,980)0.001%
Cape Verde4,033 (1,557)0.001%
Samoa2,842 (1,097)0.001%
Luxembourg2,586 (998)0.001%
Mauritius2,040 (790)0.000%
Comoros1,862 (719)0.000%
São Tomé and Príncipe964 (372)0.000%
Kiribati811 (313)0.000%
Bahrain778 (300)0.000%
Dominica751 (290)0.000%
Tonga747 (288)0.000%
Singapore728 (281)0.000%
Federated States of Micronesia702 (271)0.000%
Saint Lucia616 (238)0.000%
Andorra468 (181)0.000%
Palau459 (177)0.000%
Seychelles452 (175)0.000%
Antigua and Barbuda442 (171)0.000%
Barbados430 (170)0.000%
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines389 (150)0.000%
Grenada344 (133)0.000%
Malta316 (122)0.000%
Maldives300 (120)0.000%
Saint Kitts and Nevis261 (101)0.000%
Marshall Islands181 (70)0.000%
Liechtenstein160 (62)0.000%
San Marino61 (24)0.000%
Tuvalu26 (10)0.000%
Nauru21 (8.1)0.000%
Monaco2.02 (0.78)0.000%
Vatican City0.49 (0.19)0.000%

Antarctica, although not a country, covers the second largest amount of land overall at 2.75%. Meanwhile, the other nations that surpass the 1% mark for surface area include the United States (1.87%), Brazil (1.67%), and Australia (1.51%).

The remaining 195 countries and regions below 1%, combined, account for the other half of Earth’s land surface. Among the world’s smallest countries are the island nations of the Caribbean and the South Pacific Ocean. However, the tiniest of the tiny are Vatican City and Monaco, which combine for a total area of just 2.51 km².

The remaining 70% of Earth’s surface is water: 27% territorial waters and 43% international waters or areas beyond national jurisdiction.

Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction

In the past, nations adhered to the freedom-of-the-seas doctrine, a 17th century principle that limited jurisdiction over the oceans to a narrow area along a nation’s coastline. The rest of the seas did not belong to any nation and were free for countries to travel and exploit.

This situation lasted into the 20th century, but by mid-century there was an effort to extend national claims as competition for offshore resources became increasingly fierce and ocean pollution became an issue.

In 1982, the United Nations adopted the Law of the Sea Convention which extended international law over the extra-territorial waters. The convention established freedom-of-navigation rights and set territorial sea boundaries 12 miles (19 km) offshore with exclusive economic zones up to 200 miles (322 km) offshore, extending a country’s influence over maritime resources.

Does Size Matter?

The size of countries is the outcome of politics, economics, history, and geography. Put simply, borders can change over time.

In 1946, there were 76 independent countries in the world, and today there are 195. There are forces that push together or pull apart landscapes over time. While physical geography plays a role in the identity of nations, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the former ruler of UAE, a tiny Gulf nation, put it best:

“A country is not measured by the size of its area on the map. A country is truly measured by its heritage and culture.”

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