Healthcare
Where COVID-19 is Rising and Falling Around the World
Where COVID-19 is Rising and Falling Around the World
It’s been just over two months since New York declared a state of emergency, and global stock markets were hammered as the fears of a full-blown crisis began to take hold.
Since then, we’ve seen detailed, daily coronavirus coverage in most of the major news outlets. With such a wealth of information available, it can be hard to keep track of the big picture of what’s happening around the world.
Today’s graphic, adapted from Information is Beautiful, is an efficient look at where the virus is fading away, and where new infection hotspots are emerging.
The Ebb and Flow of Coronavirus Cases
First, the good news: the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases has started to level off on a global basis. This metric was rising rapidly until the beginning of April โ but since then, it has plateaued and is holding steady (for now).
Of course, the global total doesn’t tell the whole story. Different countries, and even regions within countries, are in very different phases of dealing with the pandemic.
Let’s look at the current situation around the world.
New Cases: Falling
Many of the countries that experienced early outbreaks of COVID-19 are now seeing a drop-off in the number of new cases.
Italy, which experienced one of the most severe outbreaks, is finally emerging from the world’s longest nationwide lockdown. Switzerland and the Netherlands both had some of the highest confirmed case rates per capita, but are now in better situations as fresh cases drop off.
The narrow, pointy curves exhibited by New Zealand and Austria give us an indication of where containment measures were successful at curbing the spread of the virus. This type of pronounced curve is less common, and is generally seen in nations with smaller populations.
New Cases: Leveling Off
For many of the world’s major economies, containing the spread of the virus has proven exceptionally difficult. Despite increased testing and lockdown measures, the United States still has one of the steepest infection trajectory curves. The UK also has a very similar new case curve.
Even as countries’ curves begin to flatten and level off, there is still a danger of new flare-ups of the virus โ as is now the case in South Korea and China. Even in Singapore, which saw early success in containing the virus, is experiencing a rise in new COVID-19 cases.
New Cases: Rising
Some countries โ particularly developing economies โ are only in the beginning stages of facing COVID-19’s rapid spread. This is a cause for concern, as many of the countries with steeply rising curves have larger populations and fewer resources to deal with a pandemic.
In late March, as the virus was spreading rapidly through Europe, Russia appeared to have avoided an outbreak within its borders. Today, however, that situation is much different. Russia has the world’s steepest infection trajectory curve, with the number of cases on a course to double roughly every five days.
The countries in the image above have a combined population of 2.8 billion people, so as COVID-19 continues to spread through those countries, the eyes of the world will be watching.
Countries
Charted: The Worldโs Aging Population from 1950 to 2100
This graphic visualizes the worldโs aging population, showing data for every country and territory around the world.

Charted: The Worldโs Aging Population from 1950 to 2100
As demographics continue to shift in the 21st century, the worldโs aging population will continue to be a focal point for many global decision makers.
Most countries around the world have experienced population explosions, or are about to. Combine this with declining birth rates and falling mortality rates, and it’s clear that the global senior population will continue to reach new heights.
These graphics by Pablo Alvarez use data from the 2022 UN World Population Prospects to visualize this increasing aging population across countries.
The Worldโs Aging Population from 1950 to 2100
In 2022, there were 771 million people aged 65+ years globally, accounting for almost 10% of the world’s population.
This segment has been growing at an increasing rate, and it’s expected to hit 16% in 2050, and eventually 24% by 2100. Here’s what that’s projected to look like, for every country and territory.
Country by Population Aged +65 Years | 1950 | 2022 | 2100 |
---|---|---|---|
๐ฆ๐ซ Afghanistan | 2.85% | 2.39% | 16.03% |
๐ฆ๐ฑ Albania | 6.04% | 16.66% | 49.08% |
๐ฉ๐ฟ Algeria | 3.49% | 6.39% | 28.83% |
๐ฆ๐ธ American Samoa | 2.38% | 7.27% | 45.41% |
๐ฆ๐ฉ Andorra | 10.02% | 14.98% | 37.04% |
๐ฆ๐ด Angola | 2.93% | 2.6% | 12.07% |
๐ฆ๐ฎ Anguilla | 3.69% | 10.71% | 37.49% |
๐ฆ๐ฌ Antigua and Barbuda | 4.14% | 10.63% | 35.4% |
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina | 4.13% | 11.92% | 31.79% |
๐ฆ๐ฒ Armenia | 8.17% | 13.15% | 36.13% |
๐ฆ๐ผ Aruba | 1.77% | 16.15% | 36.51% |
๐ฆ๐บ Australia | 8.17% | 16.9% | 31.38% |
๐ฆ๐น Austria | 10.42% | 19.81% | 33.93% |
๐ฆ๐ฟ Azerbaijan | 6.89% | 7.11% | 30.5% |
๐ง๐ธ Bahamas | 4.76% | 8.89% | 29.58% |
๐ง๐ญ Bahrain | 2.88% | 3.76% | 21.89% |
๐ง๐ฉ Bangladesh | 3.9% | 6.04% | 32.56% |
๐ง๐ง Barbados | 5.24% | 16.28% | 33.19% |
๐ง๐พ Belarus | 8.24% | 17.18% | 30.45% |
๐ง๐ช Belgium | 11.03% | 19.73% | 32.83% |
๐ง๐ฟ Belize | 3.57% | 5.09% | 29.21% |
๐ง๐ฏ Benin | 7.85% | 3.06% | 11.03% |
๐ง๐ฒ Bermuda | 5.71% | 20.41% | 37.73% |
๐ง๐น Bhutan | 2.53% | 6.25% | 33.35% |
๐ง๐ด Bolivia | 6.11% | 4.85% | 21.75% |
๐ง๐ถ Bonaire Sint Eustatius and Saba | 14.22% | 13.84% | 28.94% |
๐ง๐ฆ Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3.95% | 18.4% | 36.4% |
๐ง๐ผ Botswana | 4.32% | 3.65% | 17.96% |
๐ง๐ท Brazil | 2.39% | 9.88% | 33.52% |
๐ป๐ฌ British Virgin Islands | 8.63% | 9.95% | 32.47% |
๐ง๐ณ Brunei | 4.85% | 6.17% | 30.93% |
๐ง๐ฌ Bulgaria | 6.66% | 22.38% | 37.13% |
๐ง๐ซ Burkina Faso | 2.01% | 2.53% | 13.07% |
๐ง๐ฎ Burundi | 3.22% | 2.48% | 13.23% |
๐ฐ๐ญ Cambodia | 2.67% | 5.81% | 26.43% |
๐จ๐ฒ Cameroon | 3.47% | 2.67% | 11.89% |
๐จ๐ฆ Canada | 7.7% | 19.03% | 31.55% |
๐จ๐ป Cape Verde | 3.67% | 5.55% | 32.63% |
๐ฐ๐พ Cayman Islands | 6.05% | 8.17% | 28.75% |
๐จ๐ซ Central African Republic | 5.% | 2.51% | 11.43% |
๐น๐ฉ Chad | 4.33% | 2.01% | 9.64% |
๐จ๐ฑ Chile | 3.3% | 13.03% | 36.61% |
๐จ๐ณ China | 5.04% | 13.72% | 40.93% |
๐จ๐ด Colombia | 3.22% | 9.% | 34.49% |
๐ฐ๐ฒ Comoros | 3.8% | 4.28% | 17.81% |
๐จ๐ฌ Congo | 3.36% | 2.72% | 11.99% |
๐จ๐ฐ Cook Islands | 2.94% | 11.73% | 29.75% |
๐จ๐ท Costa Rica | 2.97% | 10.83% | 36.99% |
๐จ๐ฎ Cote d'Ivoire | 2.21% | 2.4% | 10.86% |
๐ญ๐ท Croatia | 7.82% | 22.36% | 37.03% |
๐จ๐บ Cuba | 4.36% | 15.81% | 36.31% |
๐จ๐ผ Curacao | 5.82% | 14.95% | 30.46% |
๐จ๐พ Cyprus | 5.95% | 14.83% | 33.36% |
๐จ๐ฟ Czechia | 8.29% | 20.64% | 26.94% |
๐จ๐ฉ Democratic Republic of Congo | 3.77% | 2.92% | 10.62% |
๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark | 9.04% | 20.49% | 30.45% |
๐ฉ๐ฏ Djibouti | 1.99% | 4.54% | 19.68% |
๐ฉ๐ฒ Dominica | 7.67% | 9.53% | 34.28% |
๐ฉ๐ด Dominican Republic | 2.72% | 7.4% | 30.47% |
๐ช๐จ Ecuador | 5.2% | 7.83% | 31.97% |
๐ช๐ฌ Egypt | 2.95% | 4.83% | 21.77% |
๐ธ๐ป El Salvador | 3.93% | 8.22% | 36.02% |
๐ฌ๐ถ Equatorial Guinea | 5.53% | 3.12% | 15.13% |
๐ช๐ท Eritrea | 3.2% | 4.01% | 19.86% |
๐ช๐ช Estonia | 10.56% | 20.58% | 34.15% |
๐ธ๐ฟ Eswatini | 2.68% | 4.% | 16.26% |
๐ช๐น Ethiopia | 3.01% | 3.14% | 18.6% |
๐ซ๐ด Faeroe Islands | 7.59% | 17.92% | 26.91% |
๐ซ๐ฐ Falkland Islands | 8.27% | 11.08% | 35.86% |
๐ซ๐ฏ Fiji | 5.99% | 5.9% | 20.6% |
๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | 6.63% | 23.27% | 34.04% |
๐ซ๐ท France | 11.39% | 21.66% | 34.23% |
๐ฌ๐ซ French Guiana | 7.96% | 5.98% | 21.13% |
๐ต๐ซ French Polynesia | 3.% | 10.07% | 37.85% |
๐ฌ๐ฆ Gabon | 7.21% | 3.89% | 16.25% |
๐ฌ๐ฒ Gambia | 2.5% | 2.43% | 16.06% |
๐ฌ๐ช Georgia | 9.35% | 14.61% | 31.19% |
๐ฉ๐ช Germany | 9.46% | 22.41% | 33.72% |
๐ฌ๐ญ Ghana | 4.62% | 3.55% | 15.91% |
๐ฌ๐ฎ Gibraltar | 6.94% | 20.84% | 37.63% |
๐ฌ๐ท Greece | 6.8% | 22.82% | 37.52% |
๐ฌ๐ฑ Greenland | 3.06% | 10.02% | 29.16% |
๐ฌ๐ฉ Grenada | 5.12% | 10.07% | 30.54% |
๐ฌ๐ต Guadeloupe | 5.51% | 20.04% | 34.45% |
๐ฌ๐บ Guam | 1.11% | 11.84% | 31.19% |
๐ฌ๐น Guatemala | 2.31% | 4.91% | 28.05% |
๐ฌ๐ฌ Guernsey | 11.96% | 16.64% | 35.4% |
๐ฌ๐ณ Guinea | 5.39% | 3.32% | 14.% |
๐ฌ๐ผ Guinea-Bissau | 3.45% | 2.82% | 14.34% |
๐ฌ๐พ Guyana | 3.89% | 6.28% | 28.94% |
๐ญ๐น Haiti | 3.64% | 4.54% | 19.07% |
๐ญ๐ณ Honduras | 3.96% | 4.27% | 26.5% |
๐ญ๐ฐ Hong Kong | 2.48% | 20.47% | 41.64% |
๐ญ๐บ Hungary | 7.81% | 20.01% | 31.85% |
๐ฎ๐ธ Iceland | 7.52% | 15.33% | 34.25% |
๐ฎ๐ณ India | 3.1% | 6.9% | 29.81% |
๐ฎ๐ฉ Indonesia | 1.74% | 6.86% | 25.28% |
๐ฎ๐ท Iran | 5.22% | 7.62% | 33.72% |
๐ฎ๐ถ Iraq | 2.79% | 3.41% | 18.44% |
๐ฎ๐ช Ireland | 10.99% | 15.14% | 32.48% |
๐ฎ๐ฒ Isle of Man | 13.9% | 22.29% | 31.8% |
๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel | 4.% | 12.04% | 25.97% |
๐ฎ๐น Italy | 8.09% | 24.05% | 38.19% |
๐ฏ๐ฒ Jamaica | 3.83% | 7.45% | 44.05% |
๐ฏ๐ต Japan | 4.89% | 29.92% | 38.7% |
๐ฏ๐ช Jersey | 12.34% | 16.22% | 30.52% |
๐ฏ๐ด Jordan | 5.03% | 3.84% | 27.3% |
๐ฐ๐ฟ Kazakhstan | 6.47% | 8.04% | 19.58% |
๐ฐ๐ช Kenya | 5.28% | 2.87% | 16.98% |
๐ฐ๐ฎ Kiribati | 7.13% | 3.81% | 17.33% |
๐ฝ๐ฐ Kosovo | 5.33% | 10.19% | 43.35% |
๐ฐ๐ผ Kuwait | 2.88% | 4.93% | 31.56% |
๐ฐ๐ฌ Kyrgyzstan | 7.91% | 4.54% | 21.08% |
๐ฑ๐ฆ Laos | 2.13% | 4.45% | 25.24% |
๐ฑ๐ป Latvia | 10.12% | 21.86% | 32.86% |
๐ฑ๐ง Lebanon | 7.24% | 9.89% | 32.11% |
๐ฑ๐ธ Lesotho | 6.34% | 4.2% | 13.44% |
๐ฑ๐ท Liberia | 2.97% | 3.31% | 13.88% |
๐ฑ๐พ Libya | 5.21% | 4.86% | 27.77% |
๐ฑ๐ฎ Liechtenstein | 7.89% | 19.37% | 34.79% |
๐ฑ๐น Lithuania | 8.65% | 20.8% | 32.79% |
๐ฑ๐บ Luxembourg | 9.71% | 15.03% | 31.55% |
๐ฒ๐ด Macao | 3.11% | 13.% | 32.39% |
๐ฒ๐ฌ Madagascar | 3.25% | 3.35% | 16.21% |
๐ฒ๐ผ Malawi | 3.06% | 2.61% | 15.61% |
๐ฒ๐พ Malaysia | 4.91% | 7.5% | 30.78% |
๐ฒ๐ป Maldives | 3.14% | 4.78% | 35.61% |
๐ฒ๐ฑ Mali | 2.78% | 2.38% | 11.% |
๐ฒ๐น Malta | 7.42% | 19.13% | 38.26% |
๐ฒ๐ญ Marshall Islands | 5.68% | 4.56% | 17.8% |
๐ฒ๐ถ Martinique | 5.85% | 22.77% | 37.31% |
๐ฒ๐ท Mauritania | 1.44% | 3.22% | 15.03% |
๐ฒ๐บ Mauritius | 3.18% | 12.79% | 33.76% |
๐พ๐น Mayotte | 6.61% | 2.88% | 18.15% |
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico | 2.99% | 8.32% | 34.88% |
๐ซ๐ฒ Micronesia (country) | 4.11% | 6.16% | 27.59% |
๐ฒ๐ฉ Moldova | 7.56% | 12.98% | 26.36% |
๐ฒ๐จ Monaco | 15.64% | 35.92% | 30.16% |
๐ฒ๐ณ Mongolia | 3.87% | 4.61% | 26.18% |
๐ฒ๐ช Montenegro | 7.85% | 16.55% | 34.16% |
๐ฒ๐ธ Montserrat | 7.92% | 17.7% | 33.05% |
๐ฒ๐ฆ Morocco | 2.86% | 7.72% | 29.97% |
๐ฒ๐ฟ Mozambique | 3.13% | 2.57% | 13.43% |
๐ฒ๐ฒ Myanmar | 3.21% | 6.82% | 23.69% |
๐ณ๐ฆ Namibia | 4.1% | 3.97% | 15.38% |
๐ณ๐ท Nauru | 8.98% | 2.5% | 15.87% |
๐ณ๐ต Nepal | 2.74% | 6.09% | 29.51% |
๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands | 7.76% | 20.31% | 32.89% |
๐ณ๐จ New Caledonia | 5.% | 11.02% | 31.61% |
๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealand | 9.09% | 16.31% | 33.2% |
๐ณ๐ฎ Nicaragua | 2.71% | 5.29% | 28.92% |
๐ณ๐ช Niger | .92% | 2.4% | 9.76% |
๐ณ๐ฌ Nigeria | 3.% | 2.97% | 12.31% |
๐ณ๐บ Niue | 4.79% | 15.16% | 22.55% |
๐ฐ๐ต North Korea | 2.72% | 11.71% | 30.49% |
๐ฒ๐ฐ North Macedonia | 5.87% | 14.91% | 36.56% |
๐ฒ๐ต Northern Mariana Islands | 2.95% | 10.81% | 32.09% |
๐ณ๐ด Norway | 9.52% | 18.44% | 31.65% |
๐ด๐ฒ Oman | 3.05% | 2.76% | 23.96% |
๐ต๐ฐ Pakistan | 5.48% | 4.27% | 17.23% |
๐ต๐ผ Palau | 8.59% | 9.93% | 21.48% |
๐ต๐ธ Palestine | 4.77% | 3.53% | 23.44% |
๐ต๐ฆ Panama | 3.57% | 8.77% | 30.03% |
๐ต๐ฌ Papua New Guinea | 1.09% | 3.19% | 16.81% |
๐ต๐พ Paraguay | 3.73% | 6.26% | 26.51% |
๐ต๐ช Peru | 3.43% | 8.41% | 30.33% |
๐ต๐ญ Philippines | 3.56% | 5.44% | 23.38% |
๐ต๐ฑ Poland | 5.22% | 18.55% | 35.69% |
๐ต๐น Portugal | 7.% | 22.9% | 36.28% |
๐ต๐ท Puerto Rico | 3.63% | 22.93% | 48.9% |
๐ถ๐ฆ Qatar | 3.5% | 1.52% | 15.01% |
๐ท๐ช Reunion | 3.81% | 13.28% | 32.4% |
๐ท๐ด Romania | 7.16% | 18.64% | 32.22% |
๐ท๐บ Russia | 4.8% | 15.8% | 27.86% |
๐ท๐ผ Rwanda | 2.76% | 3.2% | 17.36% |
๐ง๐ฑ Saint Barthlemy | 7.3% | 10.61% | 43.89% |
๐ธ๐ญ Saint Helena | 8.63% | 28.66% | 32.61% |
๐ฐ๐ณ Saint Kitts and Nevis | 5.36% | 10.13% | 29.79% |
๐ฑ๐จ Saint Lucia | 3.59% | 9.23% | 33.39% |
๐ฒ๐ซ Saint Martin (French part) | 4.47% | 11.14% | 30.08% |
๐ต๐ฒ Saint Pierre and Miquelon | 6.34% | 17.32% | 33.4% |
๐ป๐จ Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 7.71% | 10.86% | 32.34% |
๐ผ๐ธ Samoa | 2.52% | 5.22% | 18.75% |
๐ธ๐ฒ San Marino | 10.15% | 20.47% | 35.73% |
๐ธ๐น Sao Tome and Principe | 3.92% | 3.76% | 15.6% |
๐ธ๐ฆ Saudi Arabia | 3.32% | 2.81% | 30.28% |
๐ธ๐ณ Senegal | 3.42% | 3.14% | 16.54% |
๐ท๐ธ Serbia | 6.15% | 20.56% | 37.55% |
๐ธ๐จ Seychelles | 10.68% | 8.16% | 28.84% |
๐ธ๐ฑ Sierra Leone | 3.02% | 3.14% | 15.52% |
๐ธ๐ฌ Singapore | 2.29% | 15.12% | 36.51% |
๐ธ๐ฝ Sint Maarten (Dutch part) | 12.03% | 10.57% | 34.51% |
๐ธ๐ฐ Slovakia | 6.63% | 16.98% | 33.4% |
๐ธ๐ฎ Slovenia | 7.52% | 20.96% | 33.59% |
๐ธ๐ง Solomon Islands | 4.03% | 3.47% | 15.29% |
๐ธ๐ด Somalia | 2.6% | 2.57% | 10.75% |
๐ฟ๐ฆ South Africa | 4.06% | 5.89% | 20.55% |
๐ฐ๐ท South Korea | 2.74% | 17.49% | 44.44% |
๐ธ๐ธ South Sudan | 3.48% | 2.89% | 13.11% |
๐ช๐ธ Spain | 7.23% | 20.27% | 38.72% |
๐ฑ๐ฐ Sri Lanka | 8.76% | 11.54% | 35.73% |
๐ธ๐ฉ Sudan | 3.03% | 3.5% | 13.28% |
๐ธ๐ท Suriname | 4.09% | 7.39% | 25.8% |
๐ธ๐ช Sweden | 10.19% | 20.25% | 31.83% |
๐จ๐ญ Switzerland | 9.49% | 19.31% | 32.61% |
๐ธ๐พ Syria | 7.66% | 4.68% | 24.62% |
๐น๐ผ Taiwan | 2.11% | 16.71% | 37.32% |
๐น๐ฏ Tajikistan | 4.34% | 3.47% | 19.43% |
๐น๐ฟ Tanzania | 2.2% | 3.1% | 14.97% |
๐น๐ญ Thailand | 3.21% | 15.21% | 39.17% |
๐น๐ฑ Timor | 3.14% | 5.21% | 25.42% |
๐น๐ฌ Togo | 4.29% | 3.13% | 11.77% |
๐น๐ฐ Tokelau | 4.7% | 8.66% | 25.03% |
๐น๐ด Tonga | 4.6% | 6.22% | 21.65% |
๐น๐น Trinidad and Tobago | 3.93% | 11.52% | 32.67% |
๐น๐ณ Tunisia | 4.4% | 9.02% | 31.24% |
๐น๐ท Turkey | 3.77% | 8.64% | 33.9% |
๐น๐ฒ Turkmenistan | 5.84% | 5.15% | 21.55% |
๐น๐จ Turks and Caicos Islands | 5.79% | 10.34% | 28.25% |
๐น๐ป Tuvalu | 4.98% | 6.48% | 16.15% |
๐บ๐ฌ Uganda | 2.87% | 1.69% | 14.33% |
๐บ๐ฆ Ukraine | 7.54% | 18.81% | 33.2% |
๐ฆ๐ช United Arab Emirates | 3.35% | 1.83% | 15.77% |
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom | 10.84% | 19.17% | 32.56% |
๐บ๐ธ United States | 8.18% | 17.13% | 30.47% |
๐ป๐ฎ United States Virgin Islands | 7.54% | 20.42% | 39.11% |
๐บ๐พ Uruguay | 8.23% | 15.58% | 35.98% |
๐บ๐ฟ Uzbekistan | 5.87% | 5.14% | 22.24% |
๐ป๐บ Vanuatu | 5.65% | 3.74% | 16.29% |
๐ป๐ช Venezuela | 2.29% | 8.61% | 27.71% |
๐ป๐ณ Vietnam | 4.13% | 9.12% | 30.02% |
๐ผ๐ซ Wallis and Futuna | 1.76% | 13.47% | 32.98% |
๐ช๐ญ Western Sahara | 2.82% | 5.84% | 23.73% |
๐พ๐ช Yemen | 3.98% | 2.66% | 18.25% |
๐ฟ๐ฒ Zambia | 2.76% | 1.75% | 12.66% |
๐ฟ๐ผ Zimbabwe | 3.18% | 3.32% | 14.22% |
๐ World | 5.13% | 9.82% | 24.03% |
Some of the places with high elderly shares today include high-income countries like Japan (30%), Italy (24%), and Finland (23%).
The lowest shares are concentrated in the Middle East and Africa. Many countries have just 2% of their population aged 65 years and older, such as Qatar, Uganda, and Afghanistan.
But over time, almost all countries are expected to see their older population segments grow. In just three decades, it is estimated that one-in-four European, North American, and Asian residents will be over 65 years of age.
By 2100, a variety of Asian countries and island nations facing low population growth are expected to see more than one-third of their populations aged 65 years or older, including South Korea and Jamaica at 44%. However, it’s actually Albania that’s the biggest outlier overall, with a projected 49% of its population to be aged 65 and older by 2100.
Passing the Generational Torch
The challenge of an aging population is set to impact all sectors of society, including labor and financial markets, demand for housing and transportation, and especially family structures and intergenerational ties.
One way to help grasp the nature of transition is to note the changing ratio between seniors and young children in the world population, as seen in the below crossover diagram:
Dropping fertility rates, in addition to improved child and infant mortality rates, are known to have played a major role in the plateauing population of children.
However, not all countries have witnessed this crossover yet, as it usually coincides with higher levels of economic development.
As countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa reach higher levels of per capita income, they will be likely to follow down the paths of more advanced economies, eventually experiencing similar demographic fates and challenges.
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