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Visualizing the Growth of COVID-19 in the U.S., Organized by State Peak Date

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The exponential nature of viral spread means that pandemics are fast-moving and dynamic.

Combine this with the high interconnectedness of modern life—even when social distancing and lockdowns are applied—and pandemics can evolve quickly. In just a few weeks, previous hotspots can cool down, while new high risk areas can crop up seemingly out of nowhere.

In the United States, like many other places in the world, the virus is hitting regions differently, and this landscape is constantly changing over time.

COVID-19 Growth, by State

Today’s first visualization comes to us from Reddit user bgregory98, and it uses data from the New York Times to plot confirmed active COVID-19 cases by state.

States are organized by the date that weekly average cases peaked, from top to bottom. Data is normalized and is current until June 16th, and states are colored based on regional definitions (i.e. Northeast, Midwest, West, South) as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Visualizing the Growth of COVID-19 in the U.S., Organized by State Peak Date

As you can see, when looking purely at active cases, the situation has evolved considerably from a geographical perspective.

Early on, COVID-19 cases were more concentrated in coastal population centers, especially in the Northeast. New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, the three hardest hit states per capita so far, saw cases peak in April.

However, a look at the bottom half of the visualization shows that generally, states in the South and West are starting to heat up with cases. Recent daily numbers confirm this, with California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina all gaining more than 1,000 new cases on June 17th.

Growth by State, Part Deux

The following visualization by Reddit user jawsem17 is designed using a similar concept, and is current as of June 17th.

This version uses the same data set from the New York Times. However, it also includes deaths as a metric, showing a comparison of peak deaths to peak cases for each state.

Visualizing the Growth of COVID-19 by Peak Cases and Peak Deaths

Although one would expect peak deaths to follow peak cases, this is not always the case.

Peak deaths in Nevada, for example, occurred on April 24th, but peak cases have been in the last week. This same peculiar pattern can be seen in a variety of states, from California to Oklahoma.

Mapped: The Evolution of COVID-19 in the U.S.

As the pandemic spreads and the situation has evolved, the mean center of weekly COVID-19 cases has been moving in a southwest direction.

The following map, which also comes from Reddit user bgregory98, averages the center coordinates of all counties weighted by how many new confirmed cases they have had over the past week:

Mean Cases Map

Originating in Ohio, the mean center of cases was initially heavily skewed by cases in the New York metro area. Since then, the mean center of cases has shifted and has now journeyed slightly past the mean center of U.S. population, located in Missouri.

This is partially a regression to the mean, but it is also driven by growing case counts in aforementioned states in the southern and western parts of the country.

Mapped: Peak County Totals

Finally, the progression of COVID-19 within the U.S. can be mapped in another useful way, revealing a geographical perspective to the virus’ spread.

These maps from Winston Saunders show places where current disease levels are below their previous peaks (blue), and where current COVID-19 cases are at highs (red) as of June 18:

Cases Below Previous Peaks

Cases at Peak Levels

This again shows the shift from the Northeast and Midwest parts of the country towards the West and South regions.

As always, the path of the virus’ spread will continue to change and evolve, and the picture could again look quite different in just a few weeks time.

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Healthcare

Innovation in Virology: Vaccines and Antivirals

Vaccine development has grown six-fold since 1995. Learn how virology, the study of viruses, is driving innovation in the healthcare industry.

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Bar chart showing the number of vaccines approved or in development over time to highlight innovation within virology. The number of vaccines approved or in development jumped by 13% from 2020 to 2021.

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The following content is sponsored by MSCI

Innovation in Virology: Vaccines and Antivirals

The COVID-19 pandemic affected millions of people worldwide and brought renewed focus to virology—the study of viruses.

However, impact made by viruses extends far beyond the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. There are 24 viruses that have each infected more than 80 million people globally, from hepatitis to influenza. 

In this graphic from MSCI, we uncover innovation in vaccines and antivirals and the related market opportunities.

What is a Virus?

A virus is a microscopic infectious agent that replicates within living cells. It may cause disease in its host. New viruses can emerge at any time as a result of mutation, or when viruses transfer from animals to humans.

Through virology, scientists are continuously finding new ways to fight against infectious diseases. Two main types of anti-infectives are available: vaccines and antivirals.

Rapid Innovation in Vaccines

Vaccines are substances designed to prevent people from getting infected with a disease or experiencing serious symptoms. 

The number of vaccines has increased dramatically over the last three decades. From 2020 to 2021 alone, the number of approved vaccines or clinical candidates jumped by 13%.

YearVaccines Approved or in Development
1995240
1996262
1997309
1998323
1999374
2000415
2001462
2002472
2003509
2004531
2005564
2006610
2007606
2008704
2009751
2010866
2011893
2012880
2013943
20141075
20151179
20161374
20171397
20181340
20191356
20201388
20211567

Data is a snapshot in time and reflects all vaccines ever approved (and not taken off the market) plus all vaccines in development as of the noted year (for which a trial has not been canceled).

Not only that, it’s possible to have shorter approval timelines. COVID-19 vaccines were approved within 11 months, much more quickly than the 2000-2020 average of 10 years.

In the time between an outbreak and vaccine development, antivirals can play a vital role.

Antivirals: The Second Line of Defense in Virology

Antivirals are drugs that slow or prevent the growth of a virus and treat disease symptoms. They are especially important tools for diseases that do not have an associated vaccine.

In 2021, there were nearly six times as many approved antivirals as there were in 1995. Not only that, antiviral uses have grown to include the potential prevention and treatment of HIV, COVID-19, and a number of other diseases.

YearApproved Antivirals
in the U.S.
Reasons for
Using Antivirals
19951012
19961012
19971212
19981313
19991613
20001813
20011913
20022013
20032113
20042113
20052213
20062313
20072413
20082613
20092714
20102714
20113014
20123015
20133415
20143715
20154116
20164416
20174716
20184917
20194917
20205319
20215720

The potential prevention (prophylaxis) and treatment of the same virus are counted as separate uses. Data is cumulative and reflects all antivirals ever approved (and not taken off the market) and all reasons ever approved for using antivirals (that have not been rescinded).

Innovation in virology—and the potential for future developments—is leading to a growing industry.

Expanding Market Opportunities

With opportunities growing and approval times shortening, more companies are entering the market.

YearCompanies Developing Vaccines/Antivirals
199566
199673
199780
199881
199987
2000111
2001125
2002140
2003154
2004144
2005146
2006163
2007167
2008196
2009203
2010230
2011237
2012255
2013277
2014289
2015310
2016362
2017392
2018374
2019370
2020383
2021484

Data is a snapshot in time and reflects all companies developing vaccines or antivirals as of the noted year. If a company stops being active in the space or ceases to exist, they are removed from the total.

As they work to develop new vaccines and antivirals, companies are conducting clinical trials for many diseases beyond COVID-19 such as respiratory infections and sepsis.

Virology is leading to a number of groundbreaking technologies and therapies, transforming healthcare along the way.

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Explore the MSCI Virology Index now.

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