Misc
When Will Life Return to Normal?
When Will Life Return to Normal?
From battles on the front lines to social distancing from friends and family, COVID-19 has caused a massive shake-up of our daily lives.
After second-guessing everything from hugging our loved ones to delaying travel, there is one big question that everyone is likely thinking about: will we ever get back to the status quo? The answer may not be very clear-cut.
Today’s graphic uses data from New York Times’ interviews of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists from the U.S. and Canada, and visualizes their opinions on when they might expect to resume a range of typical activities.
Life in the Near Future, According to Experts
Specifically, this group of epidemiologists were asked when they might personally begin engaging in 20 common daily activities again.
The responses, based on the latest publicly available and scientifically-backed data, varied based on assumptions around local pandemic response plans. The experts also noted that their answers would change depending on potential treatments and testing rates in their local areas.
Here are the activities that a majority of professionals see starting up as soon as this summer, or within a year’s time:
This summer | 3-12 months | +1 year | Never again | |
---|---|---|---|---|
📬 Bring in mail without precautions | 64% | 16% | 17% | 3% |
👩⚕️ See a doctor for a non-urgent appointment | 60% | 29% | 11% | <1% |
🚗 Vacation overnight within driving distance | 56% | 26% | 18% | <1% |
💇♂️ Get a haircut at a salon or barber shop | 41% | 39% | 19% | 1% |
🥳 Attend a small dinner party | 32% | 46% | 21% | <1% |
🥾 Hike or picnic outdoors with friends | 31% | 41% | 27% | <1% |
🎒 Send kids to school, camp, or day care | 30% | 55% | 15% | <1% |
🏢 Work in a shared office | 27% | 54% | 18% | 1% |
👶 Send children on play dates | 23% | 47% | 29% | 1% |
🚌 Ride a subway or a bus | 20% | 40% | 39% | 1% |
👴 Visit elderly relative or friend in their home | 20% | 41% | 39% | <1% |
✈️ Travel by airplane | 20% | 44% | 37% | <1% |
🍽️ Eat at a dine-in restaurant | 16% | 56% | 28% | <1% |
🏋️ Exercise at a gym or fitness studio | 14% | 42% | 40% | 4% |
The urge to be outdoors is pretty clear, with 56% of those surveyed hoping to take a road trip before the summer is over. Meanwhile, 31% felt that they would be able to go hiking or have a picnic with friends this summer, citing the need for “fresh air, sun, socialization and a healthy activity” to help keep on top of their physical and mental health during this time.
Public transport and travel of any form is one aspect that has been put on hold, whether it’s by plane, train, or automobile. Many of the surveyed epidemiologists also lamented the strain the pandemic has had on relationships, as evidenced by the social situations they hope to restart sooner rather than later.
The worst casualty of the epidemic is the loss of human contact.
—Eduardo Franco, McGill University
On the other hand, there are certain activities that they considered too risky to engage in for the time-being. A large share are putting off attending celebrations such as weddings or concerts for at least a year or more, out of perceived social responsibility.
This summer | 3-12 months | +1 year | Never again | |
---|---|---|---|---|
👰⚰️ Attend a wedding or a funeral | 17% | 41% | 42% | <1% |
🤗🤝 Hug or shake hands when greeting a friend | 14% | 39% | 42% | 6% |
💞 Go out with someone you don't know well | 14% | 42% | 42% | 2% |
🛐 Attend a church or other religious service | 13% | 43% | 43% | 2% |
😷 Stop routinely wearing a face covering | 7% | 40% | 52% | 1% |
🎫 Attend a sporting event, concert, or play | 3% | 32% | 64% | 1% |
Perhaps the most surprising finding is that 6% of epidemiologists do not expect to ever hug or shake hands as a post-pandemic greeting. On top of this, over half consider masks necessary for at least the next year.
The Virus Sets the Timeline
Of course, these estimates are not meant to represent every situation. The experts also practically considered whether certain activities were avoidable or not—such as one’s occupation—which affects individual risk levels.
The answers [about resuming these activities] have nothing to do with calendar time.
—Kristi McClamroch, University at Albany
While many places are trickling out of lockdown and re-opening to support the economy, some officials are still warning against prematurely lifting restrictions before we fully have a handle on the virus and its spread.
Demographics
Mapped: Population Growth by Region (1900-2050F)
In this visualization, we map the populations of major regions at three different points in time: 1900, 2000, and 2050 (forecasted).
Mapping Population Growth by Region
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
In fewer than 50 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion.
In this visualization, we map the populations of major regions at three different points in time: 1900, 2000, and 2050 (forecasted). Figures come from Our World in Data as of March 2023, using the United Nations medium-fertility scenario.
Population by Continent (1900-2050F)
Asia was the biggest driver of global population growth over the course of the 20th century. In fact, the continent’s population grew by 2.8 billion people from 1900 to 2000, compared to just 680 million from the second on our list, Africa.
Region | 1900 | 2000 | 2050F |
---|---|---|---|
Asia | 931,021,418 | 3,735,089,775 | 5,291,555,919 |
Africa | 138,752,199 | 818,952,374 | 2,485,135,689 |
Europe | 406,610,221 | 727,917,165 | 704,398,730 |
North America | 104,231,973 | 486,364,446 | 679,488,449 |
South America | 41,330,704 | 349,634,344 | 491,078,697 |
Oceania | 5,936,615 | 31,223,133 | 57,834,753 |
World 🌐 | 1,627,883,130 | 6,149,181,237 | 9,709,492,237 |
China was the main source of Asia’s population expansion, though its population growth has slowed in recent years. That’s why in 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country.
Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have also been big drivers of Asia’s population boom to this point.
The Future: Africa to Hit 2.5 Billion by 2050
Under the UN’s medium-fertility scenario (all countries converge at a birthrate of 1.85 children per woman by 2050), Africa will solidify its place as the world’s second most populous region.
Three countries—Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt—will account for roughly 30% of that 2.5 billion population figure.
Meanwhile, both North America and South America are expected to see a slowdown in population growth, while Europe is the only region that will shrink by 2050.
A century ago, Europe’s population was close to 30% of the world total. Today, that figure stands at less than 10%.
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