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You’re Grounded: The COVID-19 Effect on Global Flight Capacity

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Global Flight Capacity 6 Apr Update

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You’re Grounded: The COVID-19 Effect on Flight Capacity

It’s not an exaggeration to say that the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world into a tailspin.

As the number of new cases continues to surge in parts of the world, numbers are beginning to decline in others as public health officials and governments tirelessly work to slow the contagion and reach of the virus.

The potent combination of trip cancellations and country-specific restrictions on international flights has had a staggering impact on the $880 billion global airline industry. Today’s visualization highlights data from the OAG Aviation Worldwide, which tracks how global flight capacity differs from last year’s numbers.

Note: this post has been updated on April 7, 2020 to reflect the latest data.

Asia Faced the First Hard Landing

Nearly all countries have some type of travel advisory in place, with many encouraging people to avoid non-essential travel even before COVID-19 was officially considered a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).

The earliest impacts of these were felt in February, as flight capacity in and out of China dropped sharply around Lunar New Year. Also, the country’s sharpest year-over-year drop was recorded on February 17, 2020, with a 71% drop in flights compared to the same date in 2019. However, there’s some good news: life in China is slowly returning back to normal, as Wuhan eases its lockdown after almost two and a half months.

Flight capacity for Hong Kong, which was already seeing its traveler numbers declining due to months-long protests, continues its slump. As of April 6, 2020, scheduled flights were down by an immense 92.3% compared to 2019—the most of any Asian jurisdiction represented in the data.

India showed one of the most drastic declines, from 1.8% down to -68% on March 30, 2020. This resulted from a 21-day lockdown order on March 24, 2020—with only four hours of notice for its 1.3 billion citizens.

Monitoring the Situation Elsewhere

Meanwhile in Europe, Italy saw a 22% drop in flights coinciding with the announcement of a national lockdown March 9, 2020. Now that the situation has intensified, flights to and from Italy have plummeted 89% from their normal rates.

Germany and Spain are seeing the highest declines in scheduled flights worldwide, with approximately 92.6% less capacity as of April 6, 2020. Flight capacity in the region has plummeted thanks to widespread restrictions.

On March 11, 2020, the U.S. enforced a 30-day ban on travelers from the Schengen Area, a free-travel zone consisting of 26 countries in Europe, and has since extended to include the UK and Ireland. As a result, U.S. flight capacity is beginning its descent, dropping 45.2% by April 6, 2020 as the ban may be extended, and to even more countries.

Meanwhile, as of March 17, the U.S.-Canada border is closed for all non-essential travel. This follows a previous announcement from the Canadian government that it would be curbing entry to only Canadian citizens, family members, permanent residents, diplomats, and Americans.

Broadly speaking, countries around the world are taking similar actions to limit the spread of the virus and “flatten the curve”:

Measure TakenExample Countries*
Suspending flights from specific countries🇺🇸United States, 🇹🇷Turkey
Returning citizens must enter through specific airports🇨🇦Canada, 🇺🇸United States
Mandatory screening🇮🇹Italy, 🇧🇴Bolivia
14 day self-quarantine 🇮🇱Israel, 🇬🇷Greece
Complete closure of borders🇬🇹Guatemala, 🇵🇪Peru

*As of March 17, 2020

More Turbulent Times Ahead?

As both COVID-19 and the global response to it continues to evolve, here are the largest flight capacity reductions across different regions in the past few weeks, compared to a baseline from Jan 20, 2020:

Region20 Jan 2020 Flights23 Mar 2020 Flights30 Mar 2020 Flights06 Apr 2020 Flights% Change (6 Apr vs 30 Mar)
Western Europe18,606,4247,595,2643,840,5362,476,034-35.5%
North America22,644,12122,236,62517,221,75111,658,243-32.3%
Eastern/Central Europe3,701,2411,176,1391,930,5461,393,600-27.8%
Central America2,444,3832,040,6771,548,4581,135,163-26.7%
Upper South America1,737,7131,011,930673,016513,056-23.8%
Southeast Asia10,866,6236,177,0934,810,9453,856,977-19.8%
South Asia5,160,9584,245,6351,538,9181,371,156-10.9%
Middle East4,930,0302,580,4661,760,8091,619,546-8.0%
Northeast Asia25,278,59413,782,87912,465,26711,730,667-5.9%

Source: OAG

Naturally, the economic impact on airlines has been immense. Many airlines worldwide face the threat of bankruptcy in coming months, if these declining trends continue. To hedge against these domino effects of the outbreak, U.S. airlines are requesting upwards of $60 billion in bailouts and direct assistance from the government.

COVID-19 is throwing everything up in the air—including the fate of airline companies. It’s not yet clear when these stringent travel restrictions may be lifted, but one can only hope that these airlines do not have to continue to weather the storm much longer.

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Economy

Confidence in the Global Economy, by Country

Will the global economy be stronger in 2024 than in 2023?

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chart of confidence in the economy by country

Confidence in the Global Economy, by Country

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Measuring consumer confidence in the economy is crucial for understanding both current economic strength, as well as how consumers may be expected to act in the future.

So how do people around the world feel about the global economy?

This visualization uses survey data collected from October 20 to November 3, 2023 by Ipsos. It was first highlighted as part of our 2024 Global Forecast Series.

Which Countries Feel Confident About the Economy in 2024?

Heading into 2024, an average of 50% of polled adults felt confident that the global economy would be stronger than in 2023. But breaking down responses by country shows a vast disparity between responses.

Here are the percentage of respondents who agreed with the following statement: “The global economy will be stronger in 2024 than it was in 2023.” We also note the change in percentage points (p.p.) compared with the same question a year prior.

CountryAgreeChange (Year-over-year)
🇮🇳 India85%+12 p.p.
🇮🇩 Indonesia82%+14 p.p.
🇨🇳 China82%+4 p.p.
🇵🇭 Philippines74%N/A
🇹🇭 Thailand68%+4 p.p.
🇲🇾 Malaysia62%+8 p.p.
🇲🇽 Mexico62%+6 p.p.
🇧🇷 Brazil60%-13 p.p.
🇸🇬 Singapore59%+4 p.p.
🇵🇱 Poland56%+20 p.p.
🇳🇿 New Zealand56%N/A
🇨🇴 Colombia54%+5 p.p.
🇨🇱 Chile51%+8 p.p.
🇵🇪 Peru51%-3 p.p.
🇦🇷 Argentina51%+3 p.p.
🇿🇦 South Africa49%+2 p.p.
🇦🇺 Australia48%+7 p.p.
🇭🇺 Hungary46%+15 p.p.
🇷🇴 Romania45%+8 p.p.
🇺🇸 United States45%+3 p.p.
🇪🇸 Spain44%+8 p.p.
🇳🇱 Netherlands44%+12 p.p.
🇹🇷 Türkiye43%0 p.p.
🇬🇧 Great Britain43%+11 p.p.
🇨🇭 Switzerland43%+8 p.p.
🇮🇹 Italy40%+8 p.p.
🇩🇪 Germany40%+3 p.p.
🇨🇦 Canada39%+2 p.p.
🇸🇪 Sweden34%+1 p.p.
🇫🇷 France33%+4 p.p.
🇰🇷 South Korea33%-5 p.p.
🇵🇹 Portugal33%N/A
🇯🇵 Japan30%0 p.p.
🌍 Global average50%+4 p.p.

At the top, India, Indonesia, and China stood as being the most confident about 2024’s economic prospects. 85% of Indian respondents agreed that the global economy will be stronger in 2024 than in 2023, while 82% of Chinese and Indonesian respondents felt the same.

Regional disparities also become evident, with Asian countries making up the top five most confident countries and seven out of the top nine. In fact, South Korea and Japan were the only Asian countries surveyed that were not feeling confident, with Japanese respondents being the least confident (30%) and South Koreans tied for the second-least confident (33%).

Countries in South America ranged from Brazil having a high of 60% of respondents agree with 2024 being stronger than 2023 to Chile having a “low” of 51%. North American countries were more split, with Mexico feeling more confident and Canada feeling less confident.

Lastly, Europe stood out as being the least confident in the global economy in 2024. Only Poland (56%) had more than 50% agree that this year would be better than the last, while major economies like Germany (40%) and France (33%) sat closer to the bottom of the table.

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