Politics

Canada has the Most Overvalued Housing Market in World [Chart]

Published

8 years ago

May 1, 2015

Jeff Desjardins

Canada has the Most Overvalued Housing Market in World [Chart]

The Chart of the Week is a weekly feature in Visual Capitalist on Fridays.

In every inflating bubble, there’s usually two camps. The first group points out various metrics suggesting something is inherently unsustainable, while the second reiterates that this time, it is different.

After all, if everyone always agreed on these things, then no one would do the buying to perpetuate the bubble’s expansion. The Canadian housing bubble has been no exception to this, and the war of words is starting to heat up.

On one side of the ring, we have The Economist, that came out last week saying Canada has the most overvalued housing market in the world. After crunching the data in housing markets in 26 nations, The Economist has determined that Canada’s property market is the most overvalued in terms of rent prices (+89%), and the third most overvalued in terms of incomes (+35%). They have mentioned in the past that the market has looked bubbly for some time, but finally Canada is officially at the top of their list.

Of course, The Economist is not the only fighter on this side of the ring.

Just over a month ago, the IMF sounded a fresh alarm on Canada’s housing market by saying that household debt is well above that of other countries. Meanwhile, seven in ten mortgage lenders in Canada have expressed “concerns” that the real estate sector is in a bubble that could burst at any time. Deutsch Bank estimates the market is 63% overvalued and readily offers seven reasons why Canada is in trouble. Even hedge funds are starting to find ways to short the market in anticipation of an upcoming collapse. Canada’s housing situation could give rise to the world’s next Steve Eisman, Eugene Xu, or Greg Lippmann.

On the opposing side of the ring, who will contend that the Canadian housing market is just different this time? Hint: look to the banks and government.

Stephen Harper, Canada’s Prime Minister, has tried to dispel fears. He recently told a business audience in New York that he didn’t anticipate any housing crisis in Canada.

Just this week, the Bank of Canada also tried its best to deflate housing bubble fears. “We don’t believe we’re in a bubble,” says Stephen Poloz, the Bank’s Governor. “Our housing construction has stayed very much in line with our estimates of demographic demand.”

Poloz suggested that housing costs do not necessarily have to contract to match the incomes of Canadians. Instead, he expects growth in the economy to raise wages and make housing more affordable.

Strangely enough, by the Bank of Canada’s own estimate, the housing market is overvalued by as much as 30%. It is hard for housing to become more affordable when prices are rising in double digits in a year. Combine this with the fact that household debt rates keep setting new records, and one side of the fight might get tilted sooner than later.

Related Topics:bank of canada property canada Real Estate housing bubble

Up Next

9 Construction Projects That Broke the Bank

Don't Miss

What Matters Most to People in Each Country

4 Comments

Globalization

Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts

We provide a data-driven overview of how the recent BRICS expansion will grow the group’s influence and reach.

Published

4 weeks ago

August 24, 2023

Marcus Lu

Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts

BRICS is an association of five major countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Distinguished by their emerging economies, the group has sought to improve diplomatic coordination, reform global financial institutions, and ultimately serve as a counterbalance to Western hegemony.

On Aug. 24, 2023, BRICS announced that it would formally accept six new members at the start of 2024: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

In this graphic, we provide a data-driven overview of how the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s influence and reach.

Share of Global GDP

Because most of the new BRICS members are considered to be developing economies, their addition to the group will not have a major impact on its overall share of GDP.

The following table includes GDP projections for 2023, courtesy of the IMF.

Original BRICS Member	Country	GDP (USD billions)	Share of Global (%)
Yes	🇧🇷 Brazil	$2,081	2.0%
Yes	🇷🇺 Russia	$2,063	2.0%
Yes	🇮🇳 India	$3,737	3.6%
Yes	🇨🇳 China	$19,374	18.4%
Yes	🇿🇦 South Africa	$399	0.4%
No	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	$1,062	1.0%
No	🇮🇷 Iran	$368	0.4%
No	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	$156	0.1%
No	🇪🇬 Egypt	$387	0.4%
No	🇦🇷 Argentina	$641	0.6%
No	🇦🇪 UAE	$499	0.5%
-	BRICS Total	$30,767	29.3%
-	Rest of World	$74,362	70.7%

The original six BRICS members are expected to have a combined GDP of $27.6 trillion in 2023, representing 26.3% of the global total. With the new members included, expected GDP climbs slightly to $30.8 trillion, enough for a 29.3% global share.

Share of Global Population

BRICS has always represented a major chunk of global population thanks to China and India, which are the only countries with over 1 billion people.

The two biggest populations being added to BRICS are Ethiopia (126.5 million) and Egypt (112.7 million). See the following table for population data from World Population Review, which is dated as of 2023.

Original BRICS Member	Country	Population	Share of Global (%)
Yes	🇧🇷 Brazil	216,422,446	2.7%
Yes	🇷🇺 Russia	144,444,359	1.8%
Yes	🇮🇳 India	1,428,627,663	17.8%
Yes	🇨🇳 China	1,425,671,352	17.7%
Yes	🇿🇦 South Africa	60,414,495	0.8%
No	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	36,947,025	0.5%
No	🇮🇷 Iran	89,172,767	1.1%
No	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	126,527,060	1.6%
No	🇪🇬 Egypt	112,716,598	1.4%
No	🇦🇷 Argentina	45,773,884	0.6%
No	🇦🇪 UAE	9,516,871	0.1%
-	BRICS Total	3.7 billion	46.0%
-	Rest of World	4.3 billion	54.0%

It’s possible that BRICS could eventually surpass 50% of global population, as many more countries have expressed their desire to join.

Share of Oil Production

Although the world is trying to move away from fossil fuels, the global oil market is still incredibly large—and BRICS is set to play a much bigger role in it. This is mostly due to the admission of Saudi Arabia, which alone accounts for 12.9% of global oil production.

Based on 2022 figures from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, BRICS’ share of oil production will grow from 20.4% to 43.1%.

Original BRICS Member	Country	Thousand Barrels per Day	Share of Global (%)
Yes	🇧🇷 Brazil	3,107	3.3%
Yes	🇷🇺 Russia	11,202	11.9%
Yes	🇮🇳 India	737	0.8%
Yes	🇨🇳 China	4,111	4.4%
Yes	🇿🇦 South Africa	0	0.0%
No	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	12,136	12.9%
No	🇮🇷 Iran	3,822	4.1%
No	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	0	0.0%
No	🇪🇬 Egypt	613	0.7%
No	🇦🇷 Argentina	706	0.8%
No	🇦🇪 UAE	4,020	4.3%
-	BRICS Total	40,454	43.1%
-	Rest of World	53,394	56.9%

It’s worth noting that China has been pushing for oil trade to be denominated in yuan, and that Saudi Arabia’s acceptance into BRICS could bolster this ambition, potentially shifting the dynamics of global oil trade.

Share of Global Exports

The last metric included in our graphic is global exports, which is based on 2022 data from the World Trade Organization. We can see that the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s share of global exports (merchandise trade) to 25.1%, up from 20.2%.

Original BRICS Member	Country	Exports (USD billions)	Share of Global (%)
Yes	🇧🇷 Brazil	334	1.3%
Yes	🇷🇺 Russia	532	2.1%
Yes	🇮🇳 India	453	1.8%
Yes	🇨🇳 China	3,594	14.4%
Yes	🇿🇦 South Africa	123	0.5%
No	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	410	1.6%
No	🇮🇷 Iran	73	0.3%
No	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	3.9	0.02%
No	🇪🇬 Egypt	49	0.2%
No	🇦🇷 Argentina	88	0.4%
No	🇦🇪 UAE	599	2.4%
-	BRICS Total	6,259	25.1%
-	Rest of World	18,646	74.9%

Unsurprisingly, China is the world’s largest exporter. Major exporters that are not a part of BRICS include the U.S. (8.3%), Germany (6.6%), the Netherlands (3.9%), and Japan (3.0%).

Who Else Wants to Join?

According to Reuters, there are over 40 countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS. A smaller group of 16 countries have actually applied for membership, though, and this list includes Algeria, Cuba, Indonesia, Palestine, and Vietnam.

As the group grows in size, differing opinions and priorities among its members could create tensions in the future. For example, India and China have had numerous border disputes in recent years, while Brazil’s newly elected President has sought to “kickstart a new era of relations” with the U.S.

One thing that is certain, however, is that a new acronym for the group will be needed very soon.