Human Insight, Computer Power: What is Quantamental Investing?
Connect with us

Investor Education

Human Insight, Computer Power: What is Quantamental Investing?

Published

on

Quantamental Investing

What is Quantamental Investing?

The world is awash in data like never before. From a person’s morning Uber ride and favorite coffee spot, to the emails sent from their office—all these activities create massive amounts of data, but also behavioral and investment insights.

Warren Buffett’s investment style exemplifies the fundamental approach: “Which companies offer the best returns?”

On the other hand, hedge fund manager James Simons of Renaissance Technologies is a notable example of the quantitative approach: “What is the best way to predict returns?”

Both techniques have one thing in common—they seek excess return from the marketplace, or what is known as “Alpha”.

Quantamental: Combining Quantitative & Fundamental

Today’s infographic from GoldSpot Discoveries outlines quantamental investing as the blending of these two styles, human insight with computer power.

Despite both methods seeking excess returns in the market, there are some key differences:

Quantitative Analysis Fundamental Analysis
  • Seeks to understand behavior by using mathematical and statistical modeling, measurement, and research
  • Aims to represent reality in terms of a numerical value
  • Can measure or value a financial instrument, and/or predict real-world events
  • Trading focuses on broad market factors (data)
  • Attempts to measure a company’s intrinsic value based on its earnings outlined in its financial statements
  • Can identify securities that are not correctly priced by the market
  • If the fair market value is higher than the market price, then the stock is undervalued and a buy recommendation is given
  • If the fair market value is lower than the market price, then the stock is considered to be overvalued and a sell recommendation is issued
Cons Cons
  1. Takes financial data at face value to assume an economic reality
  2. Lacks in offering unique insight
  1. Analyzes a small subset of the investment universe
  2. Chasing glamor stocks or holding on to losing stocks which reflect behavioral biases
Pro Pro
  • Analyzes the investment universe, quickly
  • Offers deep, proprietary insights

The arrival of advanced sensor technology and computer processing power is creating huge opportunities for capturing the complexity of human activity on a larger scale.

Could these two distinct methods be fused together?

A New Frontier for Data: Combining Man and Machine

On a larger scale, tracking and storing data can reveal economic patterns over long periods of time. For example, satellite images of a mall’s parking lot can determine the mall’s sales volume. In the finance world, software can track sentiment in earnings call transcripts, and detect word patterns of executives.

The applications of sensor technology stretch across various cases, and could improve overall performance in different industries.

Case #1: Sabermetrics

Picking a winning baseball team is a lot like investing: with limited capital, one needs to optimize player selection and performance to beat the competition. That is why the Major League Baseball Association installed StatScan in 30 ballparks for 3 seasons (2015-2017).

These radar and camera systems captured the raw skills of players in ways that were previously available to or only understood by the baseball scouts.

Scouts are the stock pickers of the baseball. They know the ins and outs of a potential major league player, and consider health, family history, body mechanics and even personalities.

Team managers can use a scout’s insight, against the vast amounts of data collected during a baseball season, to uncover the exact metrics to predict the success of the next great home run or strike-out king.

Case #2: Mineral Exploration

Resource companies spend huge amounts of money on exploration to collect data. However, the volume of data generated is too much for one geologist, or even a team to sift through in a reasonable time.

Machine learning in mineral exploration can take in training data to help identify prospective land for a mineral deposit.

Computer Power with a Human Touch

Quantamental investing seeks to understand the depth and the breadth of the investment world. The goal is to produce superior returns in the marketplace by answering two questions.

  1. What are the best metrics for predicting success?
  2. Which are the companies performing the best on these metrics?

Quantamental investing harnesses the raw power and scale of data, coupled with human insight — increasing market returns by finding the next great investment.

Support the Future of Data Storytelling

Sorry to interrupt your reading, but we have a favor to ask. At Visual Capitalist we believe in a world where data can be understood by everyone. That’s why we want to build the VC App - the first app of its kind combining verifiable and transparent data with beautiful, memorable visuals. All available for free.

As a small, independent media company we don’t have the expertise in-house or the funds to build an app like this. So we’re asking our community to help us raise funds on Kickstarter.

If you believe in data-driven storytelling, join the movement and back us on Kickstarter!

Thank you.

Support the future of data storytelling, back us on Kickstarter
Click for Comments

Investor Education

The Best Months for Stock Market Gains

This infographic analyzes over 30 years of stock market performance to identify the best and worst months for gains.

Published

on

The Best Months for Stock Market Gains

Many investors believe that equity markets perform better during certain times of the year.

Is there any truth to these claims, or is it superstitious nonsense? This infographic uses data gathered by Schroders, a British asset management firm, to investigate.

What the Data Says

This analysis is based on 31 years of performance across four major stock indexes:

  • FTSE 100: An index of the top 100 companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE)
  • MSCI World: An index of over 1,000 large and mid-cap companies within developed markets
  • S&P 500: An index of the 500 largest companies that trade on U.S. stock exchanges
  • Eurostoxx 50: An index of the top 50 blue-chip stocks within the Eurozone region

The percentages in the following table represent the historical frequency of these indexes rising in a given month, between the years 1987 and 2018. Months are ordered from best to worst, in descending order.

RankMonth of Year Frequency of Growth (%)Difference from Mean (p.p.)
#1December79.0%+19.9
#2April74.3%+15.2
#3October68.6%+9.5
#4July61.7%+2.6
#5May58.6%-0.5
#6November58.4%-0.7
#7January57.8%-1.3
#8February57.0%-2.1
#9March56.3%-2.8
#10September51.6%-7.5
#11August49.3%-9.8
#12June36.7%-22.4
Average59.1%n/a

There are some outliers in this dataset that we’ll focus on below.

The Strong Months

In terms of frequency of growth, December has historically been the best month to own stocks. This lines up with a phenomenon known as the “Santa Claus Rally”, which suggests that equity markets rally over Christmas.

One theory is that the holiday season has a psychological effect on investors, driving them to buy rather than sell. We can also hypothesize that many institutional investors are on vacation during this time. This could give bullish retail investors more sway over the direction of the market.

The second best month was April, which is commonly regarded as a strong month for the stock market. One theory is that many investors receive their tax refunds in April, which they then use to buy stocks. The resulting influx of cash pushes prices higher.

Speaking of higher prices, we can also look at this trend from the perspective of returns. Focusing on the S&P 500, and looking back to 1928, April has generated an average return of 0.88%. This is well above the all-month average of 0.47%.

The Weak Months

The three worst months to own stocks, according to this analysis, are June, August, and September. Is it a coincidence that they’re all in the summer?

One theory for the season’s relative weakness is that institutional traders are on vacation, similar to December. Without the holiday cheer, however, the market is less frothy and the reduced liquidity leads to increased risk.

Whether you believe this or not, the data does show a convincing pattern. It’s for this reason that the phrase “sell in May and go away” has become popularized.

Key Takeaways

Investors should remember that this data is based on historical results, and should not be used to make forward-looking decisions in the stock market.

Anomalies like the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 can have a profound impact on the world, and the market as a whole. Stock market performance during these times may deviate greatly from their historical averages seen above.

Regardless, this analysis can still be useful to investors who are trying to understand market movements. For example, if stocks rise in December without any clear catalyst, it could be the famed Santa Claus Rally at work.

Continue Reading

Investor Education

A Visual Guide to Stock Splits

If companies want their stock price to rise, why would they want to split it, effectively lowering the price? This infographic explains why.

Published

on

A Visual Guide to Stock Splits

Imagine a shop window containing large pieces of cheese.

If the value of that cheese rises over time, the price may move beyond what the majority of people are willing to pay. This presents a problem as the store wants to continue selling cheese, and people still want to eat it.

The obvious solution is to divide the cheese into smaller pieces. That way, more people can once again afford to buy portions of it, and those who want more can simply buy more of the smaller pieces.

cheese and stock splits

The total volume of the cheese is still worth the same amount, it’s only the portion size that changed. As the infographic above by StocksToTrade demonstrates, the same concept applies to stock splits.

Like wheels of cheese, stocks can be split a number of different ways. Some of the more common splits are 2-for-1, 3-for-1, and 3-for-2. Less common splits can take place as well, such as when Apple increased its outstanding shares by a 7-to-1 ratio in 2014.

Why Companies Do Stock Splits

Of course, stocks aren’t cheese.

The real world of the financial markets, driven by macro trends and animal spirits, is more complex than items in a shop window.

If companies want their stock price to continue rising, why would they want to split it, effectively lowering the price? Here are a some specific reasons why:

1. Liquidity
As our cheese example illustrated, stocks can sometimes see price appreciation to the point where they are no longer accessible to a wide range of investors. Splitting the stock (i.e. making an individual share cheaper) is an effective way of increasing the total number of investors who can purchase shares.

2. Sending a Message
In many cases, announcing a stock split is a harbinger of prosperity for a company. Nasdaq found that companies that split their stock outperformed the market. This is likely due to investor excitement and the fact that companies often split their stock as they approach periods of growth.

3. Reducing Capital Costs
Stocks with prices that are too high have spreads that are wider than similar stocks. When spreads—the difference between the bid and offer—are too large, they eats into investor returns.

4. Meeting Index Criteria
There are specific instances when a company may want to adjust its share price to meet certain index requirements.

One example is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the well-known 30-stock benchmark. The Dow is considered a price-weighted index, which means that the higher a company’s stock price, the more weight and influence it has within the index. Shortly after Apple conducted its 7-to-1 stock split in 2014, dropping the share price from about $650 to $90, the company was added to the DJIA.

On the flip side, a company might decide to pursue a reverse stock split. This takes the existing amount of shares held by investors and replaces them with fewer shares at a higher price. Aside from the general stigma associated with a lower share price, companies need to keep the price above a certain threshold or face the possibility of being delisted from an exchange.

Stock Splits Happen, but are not Inevitable

Alphabet will become the most recent high profile company to split their stock in early 2022. The company’s 20-for-1 stock split aims to make the share price more accessible to retail investors dropping the price from approximately $2,750 to $140 per share.

Conversely, Berkshire Hathaway has famously never split its stock. As a result, a single share of BRK.A is worth over $470,000. Berkshire Hathaway’s legendary founder, Warren Buffett, reasons that splitting the stock would run counter to his buy-and-hold investment philosophy.

Continue Reading

Subscribe

Popular