Markets
The Biggest Business Risks in 2021
The Biggest Business Risks Around the World
We live in an increasingly volatile world, where change is the only constant.
Businesses, too, face rapidly changing environments and associated risks that they need to adapt to—or risk falling behind. These can range from supply chain issues due to shipping blockages, to disruptions from natural catastrophes.
As countries and companies continue to grapple with the effects of the pandemic, nearly 3,000 risk management experts were surveyed for the Allianz Risk Barometer, uncovering the top 10 business risks that leaders must watch out for in 2021.
The Top 10 Business Risks: The Pandemic Trio Emerges
Business Interruption tops the charts consistently as the biggest business risk. This risk has slotted into the #1 spot seven times in the last decade of the survey, showing it has been on the minds of business leaders well before the pandemic began.
However, that is not to say that the pandemic hasn’t made awareness of this risk more acute. In fact, 94% of surveyed companies reported a COVID-19 related supply chain disruption in 2020.
| Rank (2021) | % Responses | Risk Name | Business Risk Examples | Change from 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 41% | Business Interruption | Supply chain disruptions | ↑ |
| #2 | 40% | Pandemic Outbreak | Health and workforce issues, restrictions on movement | ↑ |
| #3 | 40% | Cyber Incidents | Cybercrime, IT failure/outage, data breaches, fines and penalties | ↓ |
| #4 | 19% | Market Developments | Volatility, intensified competition/new entrants, M&A, market stagnation, market fluctuation | ↑ |
| #5 | 19% | Legislation/ Regulation Changes | Trade wars and tariffs, economic sanctions, protectionism, Brexit, Euro-zone disintegration | ↓ |
| #6 | 17% | Natural Catastrophes | Storm, flood, earthquake, wildfire | ↓ |
| #7 | 16% | Fire, Explosion | - | ↓ |
| #8 | 13% | Macroeconomic Developments | Monetary policies, austerity programs, commodity price increase, deflation, inflation | ↑ |
| #9 | 13% | Climate Change | - | ↓ |
| #10 | 11% | Political Risks And Violence | Political instability, war, terrorism, civil commotion, riots and looting | ↑ |
Note: Figures do not add to 100% as respondents could select up to three risks per industry.
Pandemic Outbreak, naturally, has climbed 15 spots to become the second-most significant business risk. Even with vaccine roll-outs, the uncontrollable spread of the virus and new variants remain a concern.
The third most prominent business risk, Cyber Incidents, are also on the rise. Global cybercrime already causes a $1 trillion drag on the economy—a 50% jump from just two years ago. In addition, the pandemic-induced rush towards digitalization leaves businesses increasingly susceptible to cyber incidents.
Other Socio-Economic Business Risks
The top three risks mentioned above are considered the “pandemic trio”, owing to their inextricable and intertwined effects on the business world. However, these next few notable business risks are also not far behind.
Globally, GDP is expected to recover by +4.4% in 2021, compared to the -4.5% contraction from 2020. These Market Developments may also see a short-term 2 percentage point increase in GDP growth estimates in the event of rapid and successful vaccination campaigns.
In the long term, however, the world will need to contend with a record of $277 trillion worth of debt, which may potentially affect these economic growth projections. Rising insolvency rates also remain a key post-COVID concern.
Persisting traditional risks such as Fires and Explosions are especially damaging for manufacturing and industry. For example, the August 2020 Beirut explosion caused $15 billion in damages.
What’s more, Political Risks And Violence have escalated in number, scale, and duration worldwide in the form of civil unrest and protests. Such disruption is often underestimated, but insured losses can add up into the billions.
No Such Thing as a Risk-Free Life
The risks that businesses face depend on a multitude of factors, from political (in)stability and growing regulations to climate change and macroeconomic shifts.
Will a post-pandemic world accentuate these global business risks even further, or will something entirely new rear its head?
Markets
Visualizing $97 Trillion of Global Debt in 2023
Global debt has soared since the pandemic. Which countries have the biggest stockpile of debt outstanding in 2023?
Visualizing $97 Trillion of Global Debt in 2023
Global debt is projected to hit $97.1 trillion this year, a 40% increase since 2019.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments introduced sweeping financial measures to support the job market and prevent a wave of bankruptcies. However, this has exposed vulnerabilities as higher interest rates are amplifying borrowing costs.
This graphic shows global debt by country in 2023, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Debt by Country in 2023
Below, we rank countries by their general government gross debt, or the financial liabilities owed by each country:
| Country | Gross Debt (B) | % of World Total | Debt to GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | $33,228.9 | 34.2% | 123.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | $14,691.7 | 15.1% | 83.0% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | $10,797.2 | 11.1% | 255.2% |
| 🇬🇧 UK | $3,468.7 | 3.6% | 104.1% |
| 🇫🇷 France | $3,353.9 | 3.5% | 110.0% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | $3,141.4 | 3.2% | 143.7% |
| 🇮🇳 India | $3,056.7 | 3.1% | 81.9% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | $2,919.3 | 3.0% | 65.9% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | $2,253.3 | 2.3% | 106.4% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | $1,873.7 | 1.9% | 88.1% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | $1,697.5 | 1.7% | 107.3% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | $954.6 | 1.0% | 52.7% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | $928.1 | 1.0% | 54.3% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | $875.9 | 0.9% | 51.9% |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | $835.0 | 0.9% | 167.9% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | $665.2 | 0.7% | 106.0% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | $556.5 | 0.6% | 89.5% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | $552.8 | 0.6% | 39.0% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | $540.9 | 0.6% | 49.5% |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | $419.4 | 0.4% | 49.8% |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | $407.2 | 0.4% | 168.0% |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | $397.2 | 0.4% | 34.4% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | $394.8 | 0.4% | 21.2% |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | $393.6 | 0.4% | 74.8% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | $369.3 | 0.4% | 92.7% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | $357.7 | 0.4% | 39.5% |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | $314.5 | 0.3% | 61.4% |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | $303.6 | 0.3% | 58.2% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | $299.4 | 0.3% | 108.3% |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | $288.3 | 0.3% | 66.9% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | $280.7 | 0.3% | 73.7% |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | $260.9 | 0.3% | 76.6% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | $257.7 | 0.3% | 24.1% |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | $251.7 | 0.3% | 42.7% |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | $250.9 | 0.3% | 57.6% |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | $225.0 | 0.2% | 73.6% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | $204.5 | 0.2% | 37.4% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | $200.1 | 0.2% | 55.0% |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | $200.0 | 0.2% | 26.6% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | $192.9 | 0.2% | 32.3% |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | $178.7 | 0.2% | 51.0% |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | $175.9 | 0.2% | 39.4% |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | $152.8 | 0.2% | 88.1% |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | $152.2 | 0.2% | 45.4% |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | $151.3 | 0.2% | 38.8% |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | $149.7 | 0.2% | 29.4% |
| 🇻🇳 Vietnam | $147.3 | 0.2% | 34.0% |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | $140.0 | 0.1% | 68.7% |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | $132.2 | 0.1% | 38.4% |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | $126.7 | 0.1% | 30.1% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | $125.5 | 0.1% | 49.2% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | $123.5 | 0.1% | 55.1% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | $115.0 | 0.1% | 46.1% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | $112.1 | 0.1% | 30.6% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | $102.7 | 0.1% | 69.7% |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | $97.5 | 0.1% | 41.4% |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | $89.7 | 0.1% | 33.9% |
| 🇦🇴 Angola | $79.6 | 0.1% | 84.9% |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya | $79.1 | 0.1% | 70.2% |
| 🇸🇰 Slovakia | $75.4 | 0.1% | 56.7% |
| 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | $72.1 | 0.1% | 59.8% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | $65.9 | 0.1% | 55.5% |
| 🇸🇩 Sudan | $65.5 | 0.1% | 256.0% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | $65.1 | 0.1% | 84.9% |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | $60.7 | 0.1% | 23.4% |
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | $59.0 | 0.1% | 37.9% |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | $54.5 | 0.1% | 121.2% |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica | $53.9 | 0.1% | 63.0% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | $51.2 | 0.1% | 63.8% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | $47.0 | 0.0% | 61.6% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | $46.9 | 0.0% | 93.8% |
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | $46.8 | 0.0% | 68.5% |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | $45.1 | 0.0% | 56.8% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama | $43.5 | 0.0% | 52.8% |
| 🇲🇲 Myanmar | $43.0 | 0.0% | 57.5% |
| 🇴🇲 Oman | $41.4 | 0.0% | 38.2% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | $39.9 | 0.0% | 77.8% |
| 🇷🇸 Serbia | $38.5 | 0.0% | 51.3% |
| 🇧🇴 Bolivia | $37.8 | 0.0% | 80.8% |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | $35.8 | 0.0% | 42.6% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | $31.7 | 0.0% | 35.1% |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | $30.9 | 0.0% | 95.4% |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus | $30.4 | 0.0% | 44.1% |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala | $29.1 | 0.0% | 28.3% |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | $28.7 | 0.0% | 36.1% |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador | $25.8 | 0.0% | 73.0% |
| 🇺🇬 Uganda | $25.3 | 0.0% | 48.3% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | $25.2 | 0.0% | 81.0% |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus | $25.2 | 0.0% | 78.6% |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | $24.6 | 0.0% | 27.6% |
| 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR | $23.5 | 0.0% | 6.1% |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | $21.7 | 0.0% | 21.0% |
| 🇨🇲 Cameroon | $20.6 | 0.0% | 41.9% |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | $19.7 | 0.0% | 89.7% |
| 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | $19.6 | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| 🇳🇵 Nepal | $19.3 | 0.0% | 46.7% |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia | $18.9 | 0.0% | 40.6% |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland | $18.7 | 0.0% | 61.2% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay | $18.1 | 0.0% | 40.9% |
| 🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R. | $17.3 | 0.0% | 121.7% |
| 🇭🇳 Honduras | $15.7 | 0.0% | 46.3% |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | $15.7 | 0.0% | 49.5% |
| 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | $14.6 | 0.0% | 52.5% |
| 🇦🇱 Albania | $14.5 | 0.0% | 62.9% |
| 🇨🇬 Republic of Congo | $14.1 | 0.0% | 97.8% |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | $14.1 | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| 🇾🇪 Yemen | $14.0 | 0.0% | 66.4% |
| 🇯🇲 Jamaica | $13.6 | 0.0% | 72.3% |
| 🇲🇳 Mongolia | $13.1 | 0.0% | 69.9% |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | $12.7 | 0.0% | 61.2% |
| 🇬🇦 Gabon | $12.5 | 0.0% | 64.9% |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | $11.9 | 0.0% | 39.6% |
| 🇲🇺 Mauritius | $11.8 | 0.0% | 79.7% |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia | $11.8 | 0.0% | 47.9% |
| 🇧🇸 Bahamas | $11.7 | 0.0% | 84.2% |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | $11.0 | 0.0% | 51.8% |
| 🇲🇹 Malta | $11.0 | 0.0% | 54.1% |
| 🇰🇭 Cambodia | $10.9 | 0.0% | 35.3% |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | $10.6 | 0.0% | 53.0% |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | $10.4 | 0.0% | 78.6% |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia | $9.0 | 0.0% | 21.6% |
| 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of Congo | $9.0 | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| 🇷🇼 Rwanda | $8.8 | 0.0% | 63.3% |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | $8.5 | 0.0% | 67.6% |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar | $8.5 | 0.0% | 54.0% |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | $8.3 | 0.0% | 48.7% |
| 🇲🇰 North Macedonia | $8.2 | 0.0% | 51.6% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | $7.7 | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| 🇲🇻 Maldives | $7.7 | 0.0% | 110.3% |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | $7.3 | 0.0% | 31.6% |
| 🇳🇮 Nicaragua | $7.2 | 0.0% | 41.5% |
| 🇧🇧 Barbados | $7.2 | 0.0% | 115.0% |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | $6.1 | 0.0% | 67.2% |
| 🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic | $6.0 | 0.0% | 47.0% |
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | $5.6 | 0.0% | 35.1% |
| 🇹🇩 Chad | $5.4 | 0.0% | 43.2% |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait | $5.4 | 0.0% | 3.4% |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | $5.1 | 0.0% | 49.5% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti | $5.1 | 0.0% | 19.6% |
| 🇬🇾 Guyana | $4.9 | 0.0% | 29.9% |
| 🇲🇪 Montenegro | $4.6 | 0.0% | 65.8% |
| 🇫🇯 Fiji | $4.6 | 0.0% | 83.6% |
| 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | $4.2 | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | $4.0 | 0.0% | 33.5% |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | $3.9 | 0.0% | 18.7% |
| 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea | $3.8 | 0.0% | 38.3% |
| 🇸🇷 Suriname | $3.8 | 0.0% | 107.0% |
| 🇸🇸 South Sudan | $3.8 | 0.0% | 60.4% |
| 🇧🇹 Bhutan | $3.3 | 0.0% | 123.4% |
| 🇦🇼 Aruba | $3.2 | 0.0% | 82.9% |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | $3.1 | 0.0% | 88.9% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | $2.9 | 0.0% | 113.1% |
| 🇧🇮 Burundi | $2.3 | 0.0% | 72.7% |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | $2.3 | 0.0% | 52.3% |
| 🇽🇰 Kosovo | $2.2 | 0.0% | 21.3% |
| 🇸🇿 Eswatini | $2.0 | 0.0% | 42.4% |
| 🇧🇿 Belize | $1.9 | 0.0% | 59.3% |
| 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia | $1.8 | 0.0% | 74.2% |
| 🇬🇲 Gambia | $1.7 | 0.0% | 72.3% |
| 🇩🇯 Djibouti | $1.6 | 0.0% | 41.8% |
| 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda | $1.6 | 0.0% | 80.5% |
| 🇸🇲 San Marino | $1.5 | 0.0% | 74.0% |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | $1.5 | 0.0% | 73.9% |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho | $1.5 | 0.0% | 61.3% |
| 🇦🇩 Andorra | $1.4 | 0.0% | 37.7% |
| 🇨🇫 Central African Republic | $1.4 | 0.0% | 50.1% |
| 🇸🇨 Seychelles | $1.3 | 0.0% | 60.8% |
| 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | $0.9 | 0.0% | 86.2% |
| 🇬🇩 Grenada | $0.8 | 0.0% | 60.2% |
| 🇩🇲 Dominica | $0.7 | 0.0% | 93.9% |
| 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis | $0.6 | 0.0% | 53.2% |
| 🇻🇺 Vanuatu | $0.5 | 0.0% | 46.8% |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros | $0.5 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe | $0.4 | 0.0% | 58.5% |
| 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands | $0.4 | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| 🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam | $0.3 | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| 🇼🇸 Samoa | $0.3 | 0.0% | 36.2% |
| 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste | $0.3 | 0.0% | 16.4% |
| 🇵🇼 Palau | $0.2 | 0.0% | 85.4% |
| 🇹🇴 Tonga | $0.2 | 0.0% | 41.1% |
| 🇫🇲 Micronesia | $0.1 | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | $0.1 | 0.0% | 18.1% |
| 🇳🇷 Nauru | <$0.1 | 0.0% | 29.1% |
| 🇰🇮 Kiribati | <$0.1 | 0.0% | 13.1% |
| 🇹🇻 Tuvalu | <$0.1 | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| 🇲🇴 Macao SAR | <$0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 🌐 World | $97,129.8 | 100% | 93.0% |
With $33.2 trillion in government debt, the U.S. makes up over a third of the world total.
Given the increasing debt load, the cost of servicing this debt now accounts for 20% of government spending. It is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2028, surpassing the total spent on defense.
The world’s third-biggest economy, Japan, has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios, at 255%. Over the last two decades, its national debt has far exceeded 100% of its GDP, driven by an aging population and social security expenses.
In 2023, Egypt faces steep borrowing costs, with 40% of revenues going towards debt repayments. It has the highest debt on the continent.
Like Egypt, several emerging economies are facing strain. Lebanon has been in default since 2020, and Ghana defaulted on the majority of its external debt—debt owed to foreign lenders—in 2022 amid a deepening economic crisis.
Global Debt: A Regional Perspective
How does debt compare on a regional level in 2023?
| Region | Gross Debt (B) | % of World Total | Debt to GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $36,451.8 | 37.5% | 117.6% |
| Asia and Pacific | $34,257.4 | 35.3% | 92.5% |
| Europe | $20,123.4 | 20.7% | 79.1% |
| South America | $3,164.9 | 3.3% | 77.2% |
| Africa | $1,863.6 | 1.9% | 65.2% |
| Other/Rest of World | $1,269.1 | 1.3% | 31.4% |
We can see that North America has both the highest debt and debt to GDP compared to other regions. Just as U.S. debt has ballooned, so has Canada’s—ranking as the 10th-highest globally in government debt outstanding.
Across Asia and the Pacific, debt levels hover close to North America.
At 3.3% of the global total, South America has $3.2 trillion in debt. As inflation has trended downwards, a handful of governments have already begun cutting interest rates. Overall, public debt levels are projected to stay elevated across the region.
Debt levels have also risen rapidly in Africa, with an average 40% of public debt held in foreign currencies—leaving it exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. Another challenge is that interest rates are also higher across the region compared to advanced economies, increasing debt-servicing costs.
By 2028, the IMF projects that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP, hitting levels only seen during the pandemic.
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