An Investing Megatrend: How Climate Change and Resource Scarcity are Shaping the Future - Visual Capitalist
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An Investing Megatrend: How Climate Change and Resource Scarcity are Shaping the Future

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If you’ve ever played with dominos, you’re familiar with their cascading effects. Gently nudge one piece, and the force will ripple throughout the rest.

This process of cause and effect works much the same way in society and business: as global forces take hold, their effects are deeply intertwined with the financial markets.

The Climate Megatrend

Today’s infographic comes from BlackRock, and it explains how one such megatrend, climate change and resource scarcity, will be a long-term opportunity for investors.

Climate Change and Resource Scarcity

Earth in the Hot Seat

In 2018, global CO2 emissions rose 1.7% to the highest level since 2013. These rising emissions have intensified the effects of climate change, with 2015-2018 being the four hottest years ever recorded. Society and the economy are starting to feel its negative consequences:

  • Extreme weather events have become more frequent. In particular, floods and other hydrological events have quadrupled since 1980.
  • In hotter, wetter conditions, infectious diseases spread more easily—between 2004-2017, total tick-borne illnesses increased by 163%.
  • The global insured losses from natural catastrophes was $79 billion in 2018.
  • Extreme weather effects, and the health impact of burning fossil fuels, cost the U.S. economy at least $240 billion in 2018.

It’s clear that climate change is having an immediate, serious impact on the world.

Many see climate change as a long-dated future risk, however, our research findings show that compared to the 1980’s, there are measurable GDP impacts in the market today

-Brian Deese, Global Head of Sustainable Investing at BlackRock

In addition to these issues, climate change is contributing to another problem: it’s becoming harder to feed the global population.

Over 7 Billion Mouths to Feed

Climate change significantly threatens global food security. As glaciers melt, the world’s freshwater supply—including what’s available for food production—melts with it. This is a significant problem, considering that between 2,000-5,000 liters of fresh water are needed to produce one person’s daily food intake.

As an added hurdle to food production, supply and demand are pulling in opposite directions.

The share of total employment in agriculture has dropped significantly over time. Even worse, among the food that is able to be harvested, roughly 30% is lost or wasted globally.

On top of limited resources, the world will have to contend with forces driving up food demand.

  • Population growth: By 2050, the global population will grow by about two billion.
  • More calorie-rich diets: As emerging economies grow their wealth, their populations seek richer foods like meat and dairy products.

How can society combat these pressing issues?

A Greener, More Plentiful Future

As society works to slow climate change and produce more with less, a myriad of investment opportunities will emerge.

  • Renewable energies are becoming increasingly competitive.
  • Electric & fuel cell vehicles are growing in market share.
  • Products made from recycled materials are appealing to environmentally-conscious consumers.
  • Agricultural machinery counters the declining workforce and increases productivity.
  • Precision agriculture leverages real-time environmental data to help farmers make decisions.

Climate change and resource scarcity will be a driving force behind the actions of consumers, companies, and governments for years to come.

By staying attuned to this megatrend, investors will be able to spot long-term opportunities.

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Agriculture

Which Countries Produce the Most Wheat?

Global wheat production is concentrated in just a handful of countries. Here’s a look at the top wheat-producing countries worldwide.

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Visualizing Global Wheat Production by Country (2000-2020)

Wheat is a dietary staple for millions of people around the world.

After rice and corn (maize), wheat is the third most-produced cereal worldwide, and the second-most-produced for human consumption. And considering wheat’s importance in the global food system, any impact on major producers such as droughts, wars, or other events, can impact the entire world.

Which countries are the largest producers of wheat? This graphic by Kashish Rastogi visualizes the breakdown of 20 years of global wheat production by country.

Top 10 Wheat Producing Countries

While more than 80 different countries produce wheat around the world, the majority of global wheat production comes from just a handful of countries, according to data from The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Here’s a look at the top 10 wheat-producing countries worldwide, based on total yield in tonnes from 2000-2020:

RankCountryContinentTotal yield (tonnes, 2000-2020)% of total (2000-2020)
#1🇨🇳 ChinaAsia & Oceania2.4 B17.0%
#2🇮🇳 IndiaAsia & Oceania1.8 B12.5%
#3🇷🇺 RussiaAsia & Oceania1.2 B 8.4%
#4🇺🇸 U.S.Americas1.2 B 8.4%
#5🇫🇷 FranceEurope767 M 5.4%
#6🇨🇦 CanadaAmericas571 M 4.0%
#7🇩🇪 GermanyEurope491 M3.5%
#8🇵🇰 PakistanAsia & Oceania482 M3.4%
#9🇦🇺 AustraliaAsia & Oceania456 M3.2%
#10🇺🇦 UkraineEurope433 M3.1%

China, the world’s largest wheat producer, has yielded more than 2.4 billion tonnes of wheat over the last two decades, making up roughly 17% of total production from 2000-2020.

A majority of China’s wheat is used domestically to help meet the country’s rising food demand. China is the world’s largest consumer of wheat—in 2020/2021, the country accounted for approximately 19% of global wheat consumption.

The second-largest wheat-producing country is India. Over the last two decades, India has produced 12.5% of the world’s wheat. Like China, India keeps most of its wheat domestic because of significant food demand across the country.

Russia, the world’s third-largest wheat producer, is also the largest global exporter of wheat. The country exported more than $7.3 billion worth of wheat in 2021, accounting for approximately 13.1% of total wheat exports that year.

Russia-Ukraine Impact on Global Wheat Market

Because Russia and Ukraine are both significant global wheat producers, the ongoing conflict between the two countries has caused massive disruptions to the global wheat market.

The conflict has had an impact on adjacent industries as well. For instance, Russia is one of the world’s major fertilizer suppliers, and the conflict has led to a global fertilizer shortage which could lead to food shortages worldwide.

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Agriculture

Timeline: The Domestication of Animals

This graphic shows a timeline of when 15 different animals became domesticated, based on archaeological findings.

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Timeline: The Domestication of Animals

While dogs weren’t always our docile companions, research indicates that they were likely one of the first animals to be domesticated by humans. In fact, genetic evidence suggests that dogs split from their wild wolf ancestors around 33,000 years ago.

When did humans domesticate other animals, and why? This timeline highlights the domestication period of 15 different animals, based on archeological findings.

Because exact timing is tricky to pinpoint and research on the topic is ongoing, these estimates may vary by thousands of years.

Defining Domestic

The domestication of animals is a particular process that’s done through selective breeding. Generally speaking, domestic animals follow most of these criteria:

  1. Genetically distinct from their wild ancestors and more human-friendly as a genetic trait.
  2. Dependent on humans for food and reproduction.
  3. They’re extremely difficult or impossible to breed with wild counterparts.
  4. Show the physical traits of domestication syndrome, such as smaller skulls, floppy ears, or coat color variations.

Domestication is not the same as taming an animal, which is when humans condition wild animals to live in captivity.

While some research suggests that domestic animals can prosper in the wild, domestic animals are typically more susceptible to predators since they lack some of the advantages, instincts, or traits that help their wild counterparts survive in nature.

Key Reasons for the Domestication of Animals

Humans domesticate animals for a number of reasons: some have been domesticated for food, work, companionship, or a combination of all three.

After dogs, livestock animals such as sheep, cows, and pigs are thought to have been some of the first animals to become domesticated by humans. This was around the same time that humanity shifted from a hunter-gathering lifestyle to an agricultural society.

Domesticated AnimalPrimary TypeEstimated Domestication PeriodOrigin
DogPet13,000–34,000 BCEEurasia
SheepLivestock9,000 BCEMiddle East
GoatLivestock8,500 BCEMiddle East
PigLivestock8,300 BCEMiddle East
CowLivestock8,300 BCEMiddle East
CatPet7,500 BCEMiddle East
Zebu (Humped Cow)Livestock6,000 BCESouth Asia
LlamaLivestock4,000 BCESouth America
HorseWork3,500 BCECentral Asia
AlpacaLivestock3,000 BCESouth America
Bactrian Camel (two-humped)Work2,500 BCECentral Asia
ChickenLivestock2,000 BCEEast Asia/Middle East
Arabian Camel (one-humped)Work1,000 BCEMiddle East
TurkeyLivestock0 CENorth America
DuckLivestock1,000 CEEast Asia/Middle East

Horses are thought to be some of the first animals domesticated for work. Scientific research suggests that the modern horse originated in Central Asia, and were selectively bred for their exceptional back strength and overall resilience.

When it comes to domesticating animals, herbivores (like cows) are generally the easiest to convert because they’re easier to feed than animals that rely on meats or grains, which need to be sourced or domesticated themselves.

Domestication Has Shaped Modern Humanity

The domestication of species has helped create our modern society. Domesticating plants and animals created a world with stable food production, which enabled the human population to boom worldwide.

This is because agriculture meant fewer people could provide more food to humans on a mass scale, so people had more time to focus on other things like creative pursuits, scientific research, etc. This gave us time to create tools that helped boost efficiencies in farming and agriculture, leading to the world as we know it today.

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