The Briefing

• Bitcoin had its latest price correction, pulling back more than 50% from its all-time highs
• Elon Musk’s tweet announcing Tesla’s suspension of bitcoin purchases accelerated the price drop

Bitcoin’s Latest Crash: Not the First, Not the Last

While bitcoin has been one of the world’s best performing assets over the past 10 years, the cryptocurrency has had its fair share of volatility and price corrections.

Using data from CoinMarketCap, this graphic looks at bitcoin’s historical price corrections from all-time highs.

With bitcoin already down ~15% from its all-time high, Elon Musk’s tweet announcing Tesla would stop accepting bitcoin for purchases helped send the cryptocurrency down more than 50% from the top, dipping into the $30,000 price area.

“Tesla has suspended vehicle purchases using Bitcoin. We are concerned about rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for Bitcoin mining and transactions, especially coal, which has the worst emissions of any fuel.”
– @Elonmusk

Crypto Cycle Top or Bull Run Pullback?

It’s far too early to draw any conclusions from bitcoin’s latest drop despite 30-40% pullbacks being common pit stops across bitcoin’s various bull runs.

While this drop fell a bit more from high to low than the usual bull run pullback, bitcoin’s price has since recovered and is hovering around $39,000, about a 40% drop from the top.

Whether or not this is the beginning of a new downtrend or the ultimate dip-buying opportunity, there has been a clear change in sentiment (and price) after Elon Musk tweeted about bitcoin’s sustainability concerns.

The Decoupling: Blockchain, not Bitcoin

Bitcoin and its energy intensive consensus protocol “proof-of-work” has come under scrutiny for the 129 terawatt-hours it consumes annually for its network functions.

Some other cryptocurrencies already use less energy-intensive consensus protocols, like Cardano’s proof-of-stake, Solana’s proof-of-history, or Nyzo’s proof-of-diversity. With the second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, also preparing to shift away from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, this latest bitcoin drop could mark a potential decoupling in the cryptocurrency market.

In just the past two months, bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto ecosystem has fallen from over 70% to 43%.

Source: TradingView

While the decoupling narrative has grown alongside Ethereum’s popularity as it powers NFTs and decentralized finance applications, it’s worth noting that the last time bitcoin suffered such a steep drop in dominance was the crypto market’s last cycle top in early 2018.

For now, the entire crypto market has pulled back, with the total cryptocurrency space’s market cap going from a high of $2.56T to today’s $1.76T (a 30% decline).

While the panic selling seems to have finished, the next few weeks will define whether this was just another dip to buy, or the beginning of a steeper decline.

»Like this? Here’s another article you might enjoy: Why the Market is Thinking about Bitcoin Differently

Where does this data come from?

Source: CoinMarketCap
Details: CoinMarketCap uses a volume weighted average of bitcoin’s market pair prices.

The Briefing

• The H-1B visa is extremely tech focused, with total software developers making up 38% of all applications
• More than 275,000 applications were filed in fiscal 2021, but only 85,000 will be accepted

H-1B Visa Origins

The H-1B Visa is an immigration program that brings highly skilled workers into America when a shortage of those skills exists in the domestic labor market. The program came to life as part of the Immigration Act of 1990, under the George H.W. Bush administration. Although the program was temporarily suspended for 10 months under the Trump administration, this stoppage has since been lifted by Biden.

Though regulations permit specialized knowledge workers from various fields, it is primarily tech jobs that crowd these occupations. For instance, software developers and computer systems engineers/architects collectively cover almost 50% of all roles.

Competition Intensifies

The H-1B visa is highly competitive. In fiscal 2021, program applications hit 275,000, a 15-year high. The program follows a lottery system where 85,000 applicants are selected at random. Today, that means a given applicant has about a 30% chance of getting in.

Although the system is a lottery, the first 20,000 spots are reserved for those with a master’s degree or higher, so those holding a higher education tend to have improved odds.

Roughly two-thirds of applicants come from India. The large Indian presence exists in the sponsor companies list as well.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is an IT services and consulting company, headquartered in Mumbai, India. In addition to being a top visa sponsor, they’re also among the top two US recruiters of IT services talent, an industry India thrives in. The company trades on the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) and hold a market cap of $160 billion (₹12 trillion).

America’s Immigration Question

Unlike some other immigration programs, the H-1B visa is not permanent, with a duration of stay between three to six years, contingent on maintaining employment. Should a termination occur, the person must leave the U.S. within the 60-day grace period.

America’s view on immigration can fluctuate over time, affecting application numbers in some cases, like for university and MBA programs. A 2020 poll showed that “the social and political climate in the U.S.” and “feeling welcome in the U.S.” were two growing factors for a decline in international students over the last few years.

But as of now, it looks like this sentiment hasn’t transferred over to H-1B Visa applicants and the program remains more attractive than ever.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Quartz
Notes: Data comes from both 2019 and 2020