Why the Market is Thinking About Bitcoin Differently
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Why the Market is Thinking About Bitcoin Differently

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Bitcoin Longer Term Holders

The Briefing

  • Bitcoin investors are increasingly long-term focused. In 2020, 57% of bitcoin’s (BTC) supply was held onto for more than a year
  • Today, nearly 22% of BTC supply is held for more than five years
  • Bitcoin hit a $1 trillion market cap milestone in 2021

Why the Market is Thinking About Bitcoin Differently

The bull case for bitcoin is linked to the cryptocurrency’s limited supply of only 21 million coins. But scarcity is forming in another way, revolving around investor behavior.

According to research from Ark Invest, investors are holding onto bitcoin for longer and longer durations. By holding the asset rather than selling, it decreases the supply of coins available on the market at any given moment, which can drive up price. This suggests that market participants see the long-term value and potential future payoff the asset possesses.

In the past, durations of days and months were the most common holding periods for bitcoin investors, while holding for more than a year was practically non-existent up until recently.

BTC Duration Held% of BTC Supply
>5 years21.80%
3 to 5 years13.38%
2 to 3 years10.99%
1 to 2 years10.70%
6 months to 1 year8.30%
3 months to 6 months7.07%
1 day to 3 months27.76%

But days and months have now transitioned towards years.

Near the end of 2020, 57% of bitcoin supply has been held for at least a year. In fact, investors who have held for five years or greater now make up a near 22% of the BTC supply, up from 13% in 2016.

Old School vs. New School

Cryptocurrencies are still a relatively new phenomena. As with many new things that look to upend the status quo, they are often faced with resistance. For much of Bitcoin history, there’s been a tug of war between the old school and the new school of investors.

The more traditional views dismiss its application, and see its price run-up as speculative mania. But it appears the new school train of thought has gained the upper hand in recent times as the cryptocurrnecy demonstrates further signs of entering the mainstream.

1. CEOs begin to show interest
Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey have made sizable bitcoin investments through Tesla and Square, respectively.

2. New ETFs on the block
Multiple Bitcoin ETFs have just been approved as of late by Canadian regulators. For many years the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) was the only readily accessible investment vehicle trading on equity markets that had exposure to BTC.

3. Financial institutions finally joining in?
Mastercard, Visa, and Bank of New York Mellon have made announcements to make it easier for customers to use cryptocurrencies.

The bitcoin price has frequently broken past former thresholds to enter new all-time highs. Recently milestones include BTC briefly skipping past $60,000 in mid-March while also surpassing $1 trillion in total market capitalization.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Ark Invest Big Ideas Report
Notes: This data was released on January 27, 2021

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Charted: The Ukraine War Civilian Death Toll

Using data from the UN, this chart shows civilian death toll figures resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Ukraine war death toll

The Briefing

  • In total, since the war began in February there have been over 7,031 Ukrainian civilian deaths
  • Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons, such as missiles and heavy artillery

Charted: The Ukraine War Civilian Death Toll

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has wrought suffering and death on a mass scale, with many Russian attacks targeted at civilians.

We’ve created this visual using data from the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to better understand how many civilians have died in Ukraine as a result of the war, as well as how many were injured and how many were children.

The Numbers

As of early December, it is reported that 7,031 people in Ukraine have died because of the war — 433 of them children. Another 11,327 have been injured, 827 of which are children. In total, this is over 18,000 people killed or injured.

The figures are difficult to verify due to differing reports coming out of both Russia and Ukraine. The UN OHCHR anticipates that the numbers could be even higher.

The State of the Conflict

The war began on February 24th, 2022 and less than a year in, millions of people have been displaced by the conflict, and thousands of civilians have been injured or killed.

According to the UN, most of the civilian deaths have been caused by wide-ranging explosives such as heavy artillery shelling, missiles, and air strikes, and have been concentrated in Donetsk and Luhansk and in other territory still held by Ukraine.

Additionally, new estimates from Kyiv report approximately 13,000 Ukrainian military or soldier deaths, which has yet to be confirmed by the army.

Where does this data come from?

Source: The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights monthly reports on civilian deaths in Ukraine.

Note: Data on deaths and injuries can vary wildly depending on the source.

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