Markets
Which Companies Belong to the Elite Trillion-Dollar Club?
Which Companies Belong to the Elite Trillion-Dollar Club?
Just a handful of publicly-traded companies have managed to achieve $1 trillion or more in market capitalization—only seven, to be precise.
We pull data from Companies Market Cap to find out which familiar names are breaking the 13-digit barrier—and who else is waiting in the wings.
The Major Players in the Game
Apple, Microsoft, and Saudi Aramco are the three companies to have shattered the $2T market cap milestone to date, leaving others in the dust. Apple was also the first among its Big Tech peers to ascend to the $1 trillion landmark back in 2018.
| Company | Valuation | Country | Age of company |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | $2.46T | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 45 years (Founded 1976) |
| Microsoft | $2.31T | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 46 years (Founded 1975) |
| Saudi Aramco | $2.00T | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 88 years (Founded 1933) |
| Alphabet (Google) | $1.84T | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 23 years (Founded 1998) |
| Amazon | $1.68T | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 27 years (Founded 1994) |
| Tesla | $1.01T | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 18 years (Founded 2003) |
Footnote: Data is current as of October 25, 2021. Facebook is the 7th company historically to reach $1 trillion, but dipped out recently.
The largest oil and gas giant—Saudi Aramco is the only non-American company to make the trillion-dollar club. This makes it a notable outlier, as American companies typically dominate the leaderboard of the biggest corporations around the world.
Tesla Reaches $1 Trillion
Tesla reached the $1 trillion market cap for the first time due to a strong trading day on Monday October 25th. Their shares popped some 10%, off the announcement of some positive news from Hertz and Morgan Stanley.
First, Hertz, a car rental company, revealed an order for 100,000 Tesla vehicles — the largest order in the automaker’s history. Second, an auto analyst at Morgan Stanley made revisions and raised his price target on Tesla to $1,200.
Whether Tesla can stay a trillion dollar company will likely be a much discussed topic after today, as their valuation has always been a controversial one. Bearish investors frequently point to Tesla’s lack of fundamentals relative to traditional car companies. For instance, their market cap relative to cars sold:
| Company | Market Cap ($B) | Cars Sold (2020) | Value Per Car Sold | If Valued Like Tesla |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | $1,000 | 500,000 | $2 million | $1.0 Trillion |
| Volkswagen | $148 | 9.3 million | $15,000 | $18.6 trillion |
| Toyota | $242 | 9.5 million | $25,000 | $19.0 trillion |
| Ford | $62 | 4.2 million | $14,000 | $8.4 trillion |
Based on the 500,000 cars Tesla sold in 2020, their $1 trillion market cap values them at $2 million per car sold. As an extreme example, if Volkswagen and Toyota were to be valued in a similar fashion, their market caps would be close to $19 trillion each. Larger than all of the elite trillion-dollar club combined.
Who Else Might Join the Trillion-Dollar Club?
Companies with a market capitalization above $500 billion are also few and far between. After Facebook, which until recently was part of the elite trillion-dollar club, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway is the closest to joining the Four Comma Club. Though there’s still some ways to go, their market cap of $656 billion means shares would need to appreciate some 52%.
| Company | Valuation | Country | Age of company |
|---|---|---|---|
| $926B | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 17 years (Founded 2004) | |
| Berkshire Hathaway | $656B | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 182 years (Founded 1839) |
| TSMC | $619B | 🇹🇼 Taiwan | 34 years (Founded 1987) |
| Tencent | $589B | 🇨🇳 China | 23 years (Founded 1998) |
| Visa | $497B | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 63 years (Founded 1958) |
Visa, one of the pioneers of consumer credit in the United States, continues to innovate even 63 years after its founding. In attempts to expand the reach of its already massive payments ecosystem, Visa is experimenting with acquisitions, and even dipping its toes into cryptocurrency with some success.
Whether the next company to join the trillion-dollar club comes from the U.S., from the tech industry, or out of left field, it’s clear that it has some pretty big shoes to fill.
Markets
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.
How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing
The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.
We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.
Disinflation vs. Deflation
The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.
| Time Period | March 1980-July 1983 | June 2022-April 2023* |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation at Start of Cycle | 14.8% | 9.1% |
| Inflation at End of Cycle | 2.5% | 4.9% |
* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.
A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.
How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?
Looking to History
There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.
With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.
Equity Issuance
Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.
| Year | Deal Value |
|---|---|
| 1980 | $2.6B |
| 1981 | $5.0B |
| 1982 | $3.6B |
| 1983 | $13.5B |
| 1984 | $2.5B |
| 1985 | $12.0B |
| 1986 | $24.2B |
| 1987 | $24.9B |
| 1988 | $16.9B |
| 1989 | $12.9B |
| 1990 | $13.4B |
| 1991 | $45.2B |
| 1992 | $50.3B |
| 1993 | $95.3B |
| 1994 | $63.7B |
| 1995 | $79.7B |
| 1996 | $108.7B |
| 1997 | $106.5B |
| 1998 | $97.0B |
| 1999 | $142.8B |
| 2000 | $156.5B |
Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.
Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.
Debt Issuance
Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.
| Year | Deal Value | Interest Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | $4.5B | 11.4% |
| 1981 | $6.7B | 13.9% |
| 1982 | $14.5B | 13.0% |
| 1983 | $8.1B | 11.1% |
| 1984 | $25.7B | 12.5% |
| 1985 | $46.4B | 10.6% |
| 1986 | $47.1B | 7.7% |
| 1987 | $26.4B | 8.4% |
| 1988 | $24.7B | 8.9% |
| 1989 | $29.9B | 8.5% |
| 1990 | $40.2B | 8.6% |
| 1991 | $41.6B | 7.9% |
| 1992 | $50.0B | 7.0% |
| 1993 | $487.8B | 5.9% |
| 1994 | $526.4B | 7.1% |
| 1995 | $632.7B | 6.6% |
| 1996 | $906.0B | 6.4% |
| 1997 | $1.3T | 6.4% |
| 1998 | $1.8T | 5.3% |
| 1999 | $1.8T | 5.7% |
| 2000 | $2.8T | 6.0% |
Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.
As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.
It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.
Then vs. Now
Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.
Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.
| January 1981 | April 2023* | |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Annual | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| Inflation Expectations Next 12 Months | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| Interest Rate 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 12.6% | 3.7% |
| Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| Nominal Wage Growth Annual, Seasonally Adjusted | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| After-Tax Corporate Profits As Share of Gross Value Added | 9.1% | 13.8% |
* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.
What to Consider During Disinflation
Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.
- High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
- High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
- Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.
In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.
Learn more about working with Citizens.
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