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Tesla Bears: A Short Short Story

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Tesla Bears: A Short Short Story

The Briefing

  • Tesla, Inc has gained infamy for the sheer depth of short seller activity on its stock. At its peak in 2019, over 200 million shares were short
  • However, short sellers have recently capitulated, thanks to Tesla’s monster year
  • TSLA shares are up roughly 600% YTD

Tesla Bears: A Short Short Story

Short selling is often said to be the Wild West of financial markets. Where there’s a short seller, there can be whipsawing asset prices just around the corner. Tesla is no exception.

In some cases billions of dollars pour behind these short ideas—conducted by some of the world’s most sophisticated investors.

The efficient market hypothesis suggests short selling is a necessary evil that helps the market reflect on all the information of a given security and obtain its true market value. Yet most market participants are anything but receptive to short sellers.

The market—which tends to be long, often panics when a short seller enters the arena and takes the opposite stance. What typically follows is an avalanche of legal and regulatory action from corporate lawyers to the SEC.

In the case of Tesla, short sellers couldn’t have gotten it more wrong – at least for now. Some market commentators call it the most unprofitable short witnessed. The data shows that approximately 20% of Tesla shares have been held short since 2016. This year a reported $27 billion has been lost betting against Tesla.

DateShares Sold ShortDollar Volume Sold Short
October 30th, 202047,800,000$19 billion
October 15th, 202052,960,000$22 billion
September 30th, 202057,130,000$25 billion
September 15th, 202059,040,000$24 billion
August 31st, 202054,890,000$20 billion
August 14th, 202012,310,000$5 billion

Tesla’s short thesis is often anchored around a few compelling narratives. The first is that Tesla’s present day fundamentals are poor—a $530 billion company delivered 139,300 vehicles in Q3’20 and turned a $331 million profit. That’s after government subsidy programs.

The second, the electric vehicle market is expected to be competitive with many players, and short sellers make the point Tesla is currently priced as the sole-winner in this space.

We don’t know how the future EV market will transpire, but with Tesla shares up 600% year-to-date, and with the company set to join the S&P 500, some bears look to be calling it quits.

Where does this data come from?

Source:Ycharts
Notes: Financial data is as of December 2nd, 2020

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Datastream

The U.S. Share of the Global Economy Over Time

As of 2019, the U.S. made up almost a quarter of the global economy. This chart shows how the U.S. Share of the global GDP has changed over time.

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us share of global gdp

The Briefing

  • The U.S. share of the global economy has nearly halved since 1960
  • America’s nominal GDP in current U.S. dollars is $21.4 trillion, or about 24% of the share of the global economy

The World’s Largest Economy

The U.S. is the world’s largest economy by nominal GDP, and its influence on the global economy is quite remarkable.

As of 2019, the U.S. made up almost a quarter of the global economy. But how has America’s share of the economic pie changed over time?

The U.S. Share of the Global Economy Over Time

While the U.S. economy has grown quickly over time, the global economy has grown quicker.

Since peaking at 40% in 1960, the U.S. share of the world economy has been cut almost in half, despite a rising national GDP and being the birthplace of some of the biggest companies on the planet.

YearGlobal GDPU.S. GDPU.S. Share of Global Economy
1960$1.37T$0.53T40%
1965$1.97T$0.74T38%
1970$2.96T$1.07T36%
1975$5.92T$1.69T28%
1980$11.23T$2.86T25%
1985$12.79T$4.34T34%
1990$22.63T$5.96T26%
1995$30.89T$7.64T25%
2000$33.62T$10.25T30%
2005$47.53T$13.04T28%
2010$66.13T$14.99T23%
2015$75.22T$18.23T24%
2019$87.80T$21.43T24%

The decline of America’s contribution to global GDP has been slow and uneven, with crests and troughs along the way.

Between 1965 and 1980, the country’s share fell by 13 percentage points, mainly due to stagflation of the 1970s. This decline was followed by Reaganomics and a period of strong recovery, which helped propel the U.S. share of the global economy back up to 34% by 1985.

The whipsawing would continue. Between 1985 and 1995, the U.S share fell by another 11 percentage points, only to bounce back to a local peak of 30% by the year 2000.

Downhill From Here?

Since the beginning of the 21st century, growth in many developing markets has continued at a rapid pace—and the U.S. share of the global economy has decreased as a result.

Until 2005, the U.S. still accounted for 28% of global GDP, but the Global Financial Crisis left a big dent, and its share fell to 23% by 2010. It has since remained relatively stable at 24%.

It’s important to put this decline into perspective. For instance, China’s share of the global economy grew from 4% in 1960 to 16.3% in 2019. Over that same time period, other countries like South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and India also saw their emergence on the economic world stage, as well.

What the Future Holds

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of the global economy, with most countries experiencing a recession in 2020. America’s economic position will depend on how quickly it can recover compared to the rest of the world.

Where does this data come from?

Source: The World Bank
Details: Data is in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates.

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America’s Most Responsible Companies in 2021

Which American companies are leading the way when it comes to corporate responsibility? Here’s a look at 2021’s most responsible companies.

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America's Most Responsible Corporations

The Briefing

  • Overall, HP was rated the most responsible American company in 2021
  • When it came to environmental initiatives, Waters took the top spot. The biotech company has committed to reducing its emissions by 35% from its 2016 levels
  • General Motors received the top score in social responsibility—it’s the only major U.S. company with both a female CEO and CFO
  • In the corporate governance category, Qualcomm placed first. The company runs a number of education programs to help engage women and minorities in STEM related-fields

America’s Most Responsible Companies in 2021

Consumers are becoming increasingly more thoughtful about the brands they support and buy from. In the U.S. and UK, 68% of online consumers would or might stop buying from a brand with weak corporate responsibility practices.

Because of this, companies need to ensure their corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives are up to snuff in order to be competitive.

With this in mind, here’s a look at the top 20 most responsible companies in America, and what they’ve been doing to give back to their communities.

The Top 20 Most Responsible Companies

Newsweek and Statista used a four-step methodology to identify America’s most responsible companies. The process included a pre-screening, as well as in-depth CSR document review, and a consumer survey.

From there, companies were given a score out of 100 and ranked accordingly. With a score of 93.2, HP placed first as America’s most responsible company:

RankCompanyOverall Score (out of 100)
1HP93.2
2NVIDIA92.7
3Microsoft91.9
4Cisco Systems91.7
5Qualcomm91.5
6General Mills91.3
7Whirlpool91.3
8Illumina90.9
9Citigroup89.5
10Dell Technologies89.4
11Lam Research88.8
12General Motors88.7
13American Express88.5
14Nielsen88.4
15Mettler-Toledo International88.3
16MetLife88.2
17Merck & Co88.1
18International Flavors & Fragrances88.0
19Waters87.7
20Intel87.4

In its 2019 Sustainable Impact Report, HP outlined how it’s been working to drive sustainability in three key areas—the planet, people, and community. And the company has made some impressive progress. For instance, in 2019 it used over 1 million pounds of ocean-bound plastic in its products.

It’s not a huge surprise that HP has taken the top spot on the list. The company is known for its innovation and progressive practices. In 2020, it was recognized as one of the top 20 most innovative organizations of the year.

Corporate Responsibility in a COVID World

The world’s continual struggle with COVID-19 has put an even larger emphasis on CSR, and the importance of supporting the community at large.

It’s no longer just the right thing to do. As consumer demand for transparency and corporate responsibility escalates, CSR practices are transitioning from a nice-to-have to a need-to-have. And organizations need to get on board before they’re left behind.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Newsweek and Statista
Notes: For more information on methodology, click here

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