Connect with us

Datastream

Tesla Bears: A Short Short Story

Published

on

Tesla Bears: A Short Short Story

The Briefing

  • Tesla, Inc has gained infamy for the sheer depth of short seller activity on its stock. At its peak in 2019, over 200 million shares were short
  • However, short sellers have recently capitulated, thanks to Tesla’s monster year
  • TSLA shares are up roughly 600% YTD

Tesla Bears: A Short Short Story

Short selling is often said to be the Wild West of financial markets. Where there’s a short seller, there can be whipsawing asset prices just around the corner. Tesla is no exception.

In some cases billions of dollars pour behind these short ideas—conducted by some of the world’s most sophisticated investors.

The efficient market hypothesis suggests short selling is a necessary evil that helps the market reflect on all the information of a given security and obtain its true market value. Yet most market participants are anything but receptive to short sellers.

The market—which tends to be long, often panics when a short seller enters the arena and takes the opposite stance. What typically follows is an avalanche of legal and regulatory action from corporate lawyers to the SEC.

In the case of Tesla, short sellers couldn’t have gotten it more wrong – at least for now. Some market commentators call it the most unprofitable short witnessed. The data shows that approximately 20% of Tesla shares have been held short since 2016. This year a reported $27 billion has been lost betting against Tesla.

DateShares Sold ShortDollar Volume Sold Short
October 30th, 202047,800,000$19 billion
October 15th, 202052,960,000$22 billion
September 30th, 202057,130,000$25 billion
September 15th, 202059,040,000$24 billion
August 31st, 202054,890,000$20 billion
August 14th, 202012,310,000$5 billion

Tesla’s short thesis is often anchored around a few compelling narratives. The first is that Tesla’s present day fundamentals are poor—a $530 billion company delivered 139,300 vehicles in Q3’20 and turned a $331 million profit. That’s after government subsidy programs.

The second, the electric vehicle market is expected to be competitive with many players, and short sellers make the point Tesla is currently priced as the sole-winner in this space.

We don’t know how the future EV market will transpire, but with Tesla shares up 600% year-to-date, and with the company set to join the S&P 500, some bears look to be calling it quits.

Where does this data come from?

Source:Ycharts
Notes: Financial data is as of December 2nd, 2020

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Comments

Datastream

Visualizing Earth’s Global Ice Loss Between 1994-2017

In just over two decades, the planet has seen 28 trillion tonnes in global ice loss. 58% of this ice loss occurred in the Northern Hemisphere.

Published

on

The Briefing

  • Due to global warming, 28 trillion tonnes of ice have melted in just over two decades
  • Over half (58%) of this global ice loss occurred in the Northern Hemisphere

Visualizing Earth’s Global Ice Loss Between 1994-2017

Nearly 70% of the Earth’s freshwater is locked up in glaciers and ice caps, ground ice, and permafrost. However, this ice is melting at an unprecedented rate.

Based on data from a new scientific survey, this visualization reveals that 28 trillion tonnes of Earth’s ice has been lost between 1994 and 2017.

How Much Ice Is Being Lost Exactly?

Figures at such scales can be difficult to wrap our heads around. For the record, one billion tonnes of water is equal to 400,000 Olympic swimming pools.

It’s then a bit easier to comprehend why, when multiplied tens of thousands of times, this much melted ice—specifically, grounded ice—has resulted in global sea levels rising by 34.6mm on average.

Cryosphere categoryIce typeChange (1994-2017)
Arctic sea iceFloating7.6 trillion tonnes
Antarctic ice shelvesGrounded6.5 trillion tonnes
Mountain glaciersGrounded6.1 trillion tonnes
Greenland ice sheetGrounded3.8 trillion tonnes
Antarctic ice sheetGrounded2.5 trillion tonnes
Southern Ocean sea iceFloating0.9 trillion tonnes

Over half (58%) of the ice loss occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, from Arctic sea ice and also grounded ice previously trapped in the Greenland ice sheet.

In fact, the rate of ice loss has risen from 0.8 trillion tonnes to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year, an increase of 57% since the 1990s.

The Impacts of the Ice Meltdown

Rapidly disappearing sea ice has severe impacts on the environment, both in the short and long term:

  • Wildlife habitat loss
  • Coastal erosion
  • Changing ocean currents
  • Extreme temperatures

While rising temperatures are behind most of this historical global ice loss, it’s worth noting that lower levels of ice lead to a positive feedback loop. Less ice means less of the sun’s heat is reflected away from the Earth, instead being absorbed back and further amplifying the global warming effect.

>>Like this? Then you might like this article on Mapping Territorial Claims in Antarctica

Where does this data come from?

Source: Slater, T. et al. “Review article: Earth’s ice imbalance”, The Cryosphere (2021)
Notes: Data from the scientific survey is based on satellite observations and numerical models. The metric measure of a “tonne” (1,000kg) has been used throughout for accuracy.

Continue Reading

Datastream

Coinbase Experiences Brisk User Growth Ahead of IPO

Coinbase, America’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, saw a 117% growth in transacting users from Q4 2020 to Q1 2021.

Published

on

coinbase user growth

The Briefing

  • Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S.
  • The company added 3.3 million transacting users in Q1 2021 – a 117% increase
  • $133 billion in assets were added to the platform, totalling $223 billion in Q1 2021

Coinbase Experiences Brisk User Growth Ahead of IPO

A week before its initial public offering (IPO), Coinbase reported significant user growth for the first quarter of 2021.

In a report released on April 6, the cryptocurrency exchange claimed to have an estimated 56 million verified customers in Q1 2021—that’s an additional 13 million since Q4 2020.

What is Coinbase?

Launched in 2012, Coinbase is the largest consumer-facing cryptocurrency exchange in America.

The company offers a variety of products, such as an advanced trading platform, crypto wallets for retail investors, savings accounts for institutions, and even its own stablecoin that’s backed by the U.S. dollar.

A Surge in Monthly Users and Assets

In Q1 2021, Coinbase saw a 117% increase in transacting users compared to Q4 2020, from 2.8 million to 6.1 million. That’s the highest jump in users in the last three years:

QuarterMonthly Transacting Users% Change
Q1 20182,700,000--
Q2 20181,200,000-55.5%
Q3 2018920,000-23.3%
Q4 2018850,000-7.6%
Q1 2019800,000-5.9%
Q2 20191,300,00062.5%
Q3 20191,200,000-7.7%
Q4 20191,000,000-16.7%
Q1 20201,300,00030.0%
Q2 20201,500,00015.4%
Q3 20202,100,00040.0%
Q4 20202,800,00033.3%
Q1 20216,100,000117.9%

In addition to its growing user base, the company also reported a 147.8% uptick in assets on the platform in the last quarter, from $90 billion to $223 billion.

QuarterAssets Held on Coinbase% Change
Q1 2018$13 billion--
Q2 201812.9 billion-0.8%
Q3 201811 billion-14.7%
Q4 2018$7 billion-36.4%
Q1 2019$8 billion14.3%
Q2 2019$21 billion162.5%
Q3 2019$17 billion-19.0%
Q4 2019$17 billion--
Q1 2020$17 billion--
Q2 2020$26 billion52.9%
Q3 2020$36 billion38.5%
Q4 2020$90 billion150.0%
Q1 2021$223 billion147.8%

Industry experts believe this strong start to the year is a good indicator of the company’s future profit potential.

For instance, the investment bank DA Davidson raised Coinbase’s share price target from $195 to $440 after seeing the company’s Q1 results.

>> Liked this? Take a deeper dive into institutional trading volume on Coinbase.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Company filings via The Block

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading

Subscribe

Join the 230,000+ subscribers who receive our daily email

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Popular