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Visualizing $65 Trillion in Hidden Dollar Debt

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Visualizing $65 Trillion in Hidden Dollar Debt

Visualizing $65 Trillion in Hidden Dollar Debt

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The scale of hidden dollar debt around the world is huge.

No less than $65 trillion in unrecorded dollar debt circulates across the global financial system in non-U.S. banks and shadow banks. To put in perspective, global GDP sits at $104 trillion.

This dollar debt is in the form of foreign-exchange swaps, which have exploded over the last decade due to years of monetary easing and ultra-low interest rates, as investors searched for higher yields. Today, unrecorded debt from these foreign-exchange swaps is worth more than double the dollar debt officially recorded on balance sheets across these institutions.

Based on analysis from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the above infographic charts the rise in hidden dollar debt across non-U.S. financial institutions and examines the wider implications of its growth.

Dollar Debt: A Beginners Guide

To start, we will briefly look at the role of foreign-exchange (forex) swaps in the global economy. The forex market is the largest in the world by a long stretch, with trillions traded daily.

Some of the key players that use foreign-exchange swaps are:

  • Corporations
  • Financial institutions
  • Central banks

To understand forex swaps is to look at the role of currency risk. As we have seen in 2022, the U.S. dollar has been on a tear. When this happens, it hurts company earnings that generate revenue across borders. That’s because they earn revenue in foreign currencies (which have likely declined in value against the dollar) but end up converting earnings to U.S. dollars.

In order to reduce currency risk, market participants will buy forex swaps. Here, two parties agree to exchange one currency for another. In short, this helps protect the company from unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

What’s more, due to accounting rules, forex swaps are often unrecorded on balance sheets, and as a result are quite opaque.

A Mountain of Debt

Since 2008, the value of this opaque, unrecorded dollar debt has nearly doubled.

Date
Non-U.S. Bank
Unrecorded Debt
Non-U.S. Shadow Bank
Unrecorded Debt
2022*$39.4T$26.0T
2021$37.1T$25.0T
2020$34.5T$22.9T
2019$32.9T$21.5T
2018$32.4T$20.1T
2017$31.2T$18.8T
2016$27.9T$17.0T
2015$25.1T$15.6T
2014$30.0T$17.0T
2013$30.8T$15.7T
2012$28.9T$15.9T
2011$27.5T$14.7T
2010$24.8T$15.0T
2009$21.4T$12.1T
2008$21.9T$12.4T

*As of June 30, 2022

Driving its rise in part was an era of rock-bottom interest rates globally. As investors sought out higher returns, they took on greater leverage—and forex swaps are one example of this.

Now, as interest rates have been rising, forex swaps have increased amid higher market volatility as investors look to hedge currency risk. This appears in both non-U.S. banks and non-U.S. shadow banks, which are unregulated financial intermediaries.

Overall, the value of unrecorded debt is staggering. An estimated $39 trillion is held by non-U.S. banks along with $26 trillion in overseas shadow banks around the world.

Past Case Studies

Why does the massive growth in dollar debt present risks?

During the market crashes of 2008 and 2020, forex swaps faced a funding squeeze. To borrow U.S. dollars, market participants had to pay high rates. A lot of this hinged on the impact of extreme volatility on these swaps, putting pressure on funding rates.

Here are two examples of how volatility can heighten risk in the forex market:

  • Exchange-rate volatility: Sharp swings in USD can spur a liquidity crunch
  • U.S. interest-rate volatility: Sudden rate fluctuations can mean much higher costs for these trades

In both cases, the U.S. central bank had to step in to provide liquidity in the market and prevent dollar shortages. This was done through pumping cash into the system and creating swap lines with other non-U.S. banks such as the Bank of Canada or the Bank of Japan. These were designed to protect from declining currency values and a liquidity crunch.

Dollar Debt: The Wider Implications

The risk from growing dollar debt and these swap lines arises when a non-U.S. bank or shadow bank may not be able to hold up their end of the agreement. In fact, on a daily basis, there is an estimated $2.2 trillion in forex swaps exposed to settlement risk.

Given its vast scale, this dollar debt could have greater systemic spillover effects. If participants fail to pay it could undermine financial market stability. Because demand for U.S. dollars increases during market uncertainty, a worsening economic climate could potentially expose the forex market to more vulnerabilities.

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Visualizing $97 Trillion of Global Debt in 2023

Global debt has soared since the pandemic. Which countries have the biggest stockpile of debt outstanding in 2023?

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Visualizing $97 Trillion of Government Debt in 2023

Global government debt is projected to hit $97.1 trillion this year, a 40% increase since 2019.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments introduced sweeping financial measures to support the job market and prevent a wave of bankruptcies. However, this has exposed vulnerabilities as higher interest rates are amplifying borrowing costs.

This graphic shows global debt by country in 2023, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Debt by Country in 2023

Below, we rank countries by their general government gross debt, or the financial liabilities owed by each country:

CountryGross Debt (B)% of World TotalDebt to GDP
🇺🇸 U.S.$33,228.934.2%123.3%
🇨🇳 China$14,691.715.1%83.0%
🇯🇵 Japan$10,797.211.1%255.2%
🇬🇧 UK$3,468.73.6%104.1%
🇫🇷 France$3,353.93.5%110.0%
🇮🇹 Italy$3,141.43.2%143.7%
🇮🇳 India$3,056.73.1%81.9%
🇩🇪 Germany$2,919.33.0%65.9%
🇨🇦 Canada$2,253.32.3%106.4%
🇧🇷 Brazil$1,873.71.9%88.1%
🇪🇸 Spain$1,697.51.7%107.3%
🇲🇽 Mexico$954.61.0%52.7%
🇰🇷 South Korea$928.11.0%54.3%
🇦🇺 Australia$875.90.9%51.9%
🇸🇬 Singapore$835.00.9%167.9%
🇧🇪 Belgium$665.20.7%106.0%
🇦🇷 Argentina$556.50.6%89.5%
🇮🇩 Indonesia$552.80.6%39.0%
🇳🇱 Netherlands$540.90.6%49.5%
🇵🇱 Poland$419.40.4%49.8%
🇬🇷 Greece$407.20.4%168.0%
🇹🇷 Türkiye$397.20.4%34.4%
🇷🇺 Russia$394.80.4%21.2%
🇦🇹 Austria$393.60.4%74.8%
🇪🇬 Egypt$369.30.4%92.7%
🇨🇭 Switzerland$357.70.4%39.5%
🇹🇭 Thailand$314.50.3%61.4%
🇮🇱 Israel$303.60.3%58.2%
🇵🇹 Portugal$299.40.3%108.3%
🇲🇾 Malaysia$288.30.3%66.9%
🇿🇦 South Africa$280.70.3%73.7%
🇵🇰 Pakistan$260.90.3%76.6%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia$257.70.3%24.1%
🇮🇪 Ireland$251.70.3%42.7%
🇵🇭 Philippines$250.90.3%57.6%
🇫🇮 Finland$225.00.2%73.6%
🇳🇴 Norway$204.50.2%37.4%
🇨🇴 Colombia$200.10.2%55.0%
🇹🇼 Taiwan$200.00.2%26.6%
🇸🇪 Sweden$192.90.2%32.3%
🇷🇴 Romania$178.70.2%51.0%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh$175.90.2%39.4%
🇺🇦 Ukraine$152.80.2%88.1%
🇨🇿 Czech Republic$152.20.2%45.4%
🇳🇬 Nigeria$151.30.2%38.8%
🇦🇪 UAE$149.70.2%29.4%
🇻🇳 Vietnam$147.30.2%34.0%
🇭🇺 Hungary$140.00.1%68.7%
🇨🇱 Chile$132.20.1%38.4%
🇩🇰 Denmark$126.70.1%30.1%
🇮🇶 Iraq$125.50.1%49.2%
🇩🇿 Algeria$123.50.1%55.1%
🇳🇿 New Zealand$115.00.1%46.1%
🇮🇷 Iran$112.10.1%30.6%
🇲🇦 Morocco$102.70.1%69.7%
🇶🇦 Qatar$97.50.1%41.4%
🇵🇪 Peru$89.70.1%33.9%
🇦🇴 Angola$79.60.1%84.9%
🇰🇪 Kenya$79.10.1%70.2%
🇸🇰 Slovakia$75.40.1%56.7%
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic$72.10.1%59.8%
🇪🇨 Ecuador$65.90.1%55.5%
🇸🇩 Sudan$65.50.1%256.0%
🇬🇭 Ghana$65.10.1%84.9%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan$60.70.1%23.4%
🇪🇹 Ethiopia$59.00.1%37.9%
🇧🇭 Bahrain$54.50.1%121.2%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica$53.90.1%63.0%
🇭🇷 Croatia$51.20.1%63.8%
🇺🇾 Uruguay$47.00.0%61.6%
🇯🇴 Jordan$46.90.0%93.8%
🇸🇮 Slovenia$46.80.0%68.5%
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire$45.10.0%56.8%
🇵🇦 Panama$43.50.0%52.8%
🇲🇲 Myanmar$43.00.0%57.5%
🇴🇲 Oman$41.40.0%38.2%
🇹🇳 Tunisia$39.90.0%77.8%
🇷🇸 Serbia$38.50.0%51.3%
🇧🇴 Bolivia$37.80.0%80.8%
🇹🇿 Tanzania$35.80.0%42.6%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan$31.70.0%35.1%
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe$30.90.0%95.4%
🇧🇾 Belarus$30.40.0%44.1%
🇬🇹 Guatemala$29.10.0%28.3%
🇱🇹 Lithuania$28.70.0%36.1%
🇸🇻 El Salvador$25.80.0%73.0%
🇺🇬 Uganda$25.30.0%48.3%
🇸🇳 Senegal$25.20.0%81.0%
🇨🇾 Cyprus$25.20.0%78.6%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg$24.60.0%27.6%
🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR$23.50.0%6.1%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria$21.70.0%21.0%
🇨🇲 Cameroon$20.60.0%41.9%
🇲🇿 Mozambique$19.70.0%89.7%
🇵🇷 Puerto Rico$19.60.0%16.7%
🇳🇵 Nepal$19.30.0%46.7%
🇱🇻 Latvia$18.90.0%40.6%
🇮🇸 Iceland$18.70.0%61.2%
🇵🇾 Paraguay$18.10.0%40.9%
🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R.$17.30.0%121.7%
🇭🇳 Honduras$15.70.0%46.3%
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea$15.70.0%49.5%
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago$14.60.0%52.5%
🇦🇱 Albania$14.50.0%62.9%
🇨🇬 Republic of Congo$14.10.0%97.8%
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan$14.10.0%18.2%
🇾🇪 Yemen$14.00.0%66.4%
🇯🇲 Jamaica$13.60.0%72.3%
🇲🇳 Mongolia$13.10.0%69.9%
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso$12.70.0%61.2%
🇬🇦 Gabon$12.50.0%64.9%
🇬🇪 Georgia$11.90.0%39.6%
🇲🇺 Mauritius$11.80.0%79.7%
🇦🇲 Armenia$11.80.0%47.9%
🇧🇸 Bahamas$11.70.0%84.2%
🇲🇱 Mali$11.00.0%51.8%
🇲🇹 Malta$11.00.0%54.1%
🇰🇭 Cambodia$10.90.0%35.3%
🇧🇯 Benin$10.60.0%53.0%
🇲🇼 Malawi$10.40.0%78.6%
🇪🇪 Estonia$9.00.0%21.6%
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of Congo$9.00.0%13.3%
🇷🇼 Rwanda$8.80.0%63.3%
🇳🇦 Namibia$8.50.0%67.6%
🇲🇬 Madagascar$8.50.0%54.0%
🇳🇪 Niger$8.30.0%48.7%
🇲🇰 North Macedonia$8.20.0%51.6%
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina$7.70.0%28.6%
🇲🇻 Maldives$7.70.0%110.3%
🇬🇳 Guinea$7.30.0%31.6%
🇳🇮 Nicaragua$7.20.0%41.5%
🇧🇧 Barbados$7.20.0%115.0%
🇹🇬 Togo$6.10.0%67.2%
🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic$6.00.0%47.0%
🇲🇩 Moldova$5.60.0%35.1%
🇹🇩 Chad$5.40.0%43.2%
🇰🇼 Kuwait$5.40.0%3.4%
🇲🇷 Mauritania$5.10.0%49.5%
🇭🇹 Haiti$5.10.0%19.6%
🇬🇾 Guyana$4.90.0%29.9%
🇲🇪 Montenegro$4.60.0%65.8%
🇫🇯 Fiji$4.60.0%83.6%
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan$4.20.0%5.1%
🇹🇯 Tajikistan$4.00.0%33.5%
🇧🇼 Botswana$3.90.0%18.7%
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea$3.80.0%38.3%
🇸🇷 Suriname$3.80.0%107.0%
🇸🇸 South Sudan$3.80.0%60.4%
🇧🇹 Bhutan$3.30.0%123.4%
🇦🇼 Aruba$3.20.0%82.9%
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone$3.10.0%88.9%
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde$2.90.0%113.1%
🇧🇮 Burundi$2.30.0%72.7%
🇱🇷 Liberia$2.30.0%52.3%
🇽🇰 Kosovo$2.20.0%21.3%
🇸🇿 Eswatini$2.00.0%42.4%
🇧🇿 Belize$1.90.0%59.3%
🇱🇨 Saint Lucia$1.80.0%74.2%
🇬🇲 Gambia$1.70.0%72.3%
🇩🇯 Djibouti$1.60.0%41.8%
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda$1.60.0%80.5%
🇸🇲 San Marino$1.50.0%74.0%
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau$1.50.0%73.9%
🇱🇸 Lesotho$1.50.0%61.3%
🇦🇩 Andorra$1.40.0%37.7%
🇨🇫 Central African Republic$1.40.0%50.1%
🇸🇨 Seychelles$1.30.0%60.8%
🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines$0.90.0%86.2%
🇬🇩 Grenada$0.80.0%60.2%
🇩🇲 Dominica$0.70.0%93.9%
🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis$0.60.0%53.2%
🇻🇺 Vanuatu$0.50.0%46.8%
🇰🇲 Comoros$0.50.0%33.3%
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe$0.40.0%58.5%
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands$0.40.0%22.2%
🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam$0.30.0%2.3%
🇼🇸 Samoa$0.30.0%36.2%
🇹🇱 Timor-Leste$0.30.0%16.4%
🇵🇼 Palau$0.20.0%85.4%
🇹🇴 Tonga$0.20.0%41.1%
🇫🇲 Micronesia$0.10.0%12.5%
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands$0.10.0%18.1%
🇳🇷 Nauru<$0.10.0%29.1%
🇰🇮 Kiribati<$0.10.0%13.1%
🇹🇻 Tuvalu<$0.10.0%8.0%
🇲🇴 Macao SAR<$0.10.0%0.0%
🌐 World$97,129.8100%93.0%

With $33.2 trillion in government debt, the U.S. makes up over a third of the world total.

Given the increasing debt load, the cost of servicing this debt now accounts for 20% of government spending. It is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2028, surpassing the total spent on defense.

The world’s third-biggest economy, Japan, has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios, at 255%. Over the last two decades, its national debt has far exceeded 100% of its GDP, driven by an aging population and social security expenses.

In 2023, Egypt faces steep borrowing costs, with 40% of revenues going towards debt repayments. It has the highest debt on the continent.

Like Egypt, several emerging economies are facing strain. Lebanon has been in default since 2020, and Ghana defaulted on the majority of its external debt—debt owed to foreign lenders—in 2022 amid a deepening economic crisis.

Global Debt: A Regional Perspective

How does debt compare on a regional level in 2023?

RegionGross Debt (B)% of World TotalDebt to GDP
North America$36,451.837.5%117.6%
Asia and Pacific$34,257.435.3%92.5%
Europe$20,123.420.7%79.1%
South America$3,164.93.3%77.2%
Africa $1,863.61.9%65.2%
Other/Rest of World$1,269.11.3%31.4%

We can see that North America has both the highest debt and debt to GDP compared to other regions. Just as U.S. debt has ballooned, so has Canada’s—ranking as the 10th-highest globally in government debt outstanding.

Across Asia and the Pacific, debt levels hover close to North America.

At 3.3% of the global total, South America has $3.2 trillion in debt. As inflation has trended downwards, a handful of governments have already begun cutting interest rates. Overall, public debt levels are projected to stay elevated across the region.

Debt levels have also risen rapidly in Africa, with an average 40% of public debt held in foreign currencies—leaving it exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. Another challenge is that interest rates are also higher across the region compared to advanced economies, increasing debt-servicing costs.

By 2028, the IMF projects that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP, hitting levels only seen during the pandemic.

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