Markets
Comparing the Speed of U.S. Interest Rate Hikes (1988-2022)
Comparing the Speed of U.S. Interest Rate Hikes
As U.S. inflation remains at multi-decade highs, the Federal Reserve has been aggressive with its interest rate hikes. In fact, rates have risen more than two percentage points in just six months.
In this graphic—which was inspired by a chart from Chartr—we compare the speed and severity of the current interest rate hikes to other periods of monetary tightening over the past 35 years.
Measuring Periods of Interest Rate Hikes
We used the effective federal funds rate (EFFR), which measures the weighted average of the rates that banks use to lend to each other overnight. It is determined by the market but influenced by the Fed’s target range. We considered the starting point for each cycle to be the EFFR during the month when the first rate hike took place.
Here is the duration and severity of each interest rate hike cycle since 1988.
Time Period | Duration (Months) | Total Change in EFFR (Percentage Points) |
---|---|---|
Mar 1988 - May 1989 | 14 | 3.23 |
Feb 1994 - Feb 1995 | 12 | 2.67 |
Jun 1999 - May 2000 | 11 | 1.51 |
Jun 2004 - Jun 2006 | 24 | 3.96 |
Dec 2015 - Dec 2018 | 36 | 2.03 |
Mar 2022 - Sep 2022 | 6 | 2.36 |
* We considered a rate hike cycle to be any time period when the Federal Reserve raised rates at two or more consecutive meetings. The 2022 rate hike cycle is ongoing with data as of September 2022.
The 2022 rate hike cycle is the fastest, reaching a 2.36 percentage point increase nearly twice as fast as the rate hike cycle of ‘88-‘89.
On the other hand, the most severe interest rate hikes occurred in the ‘04 – ‘06 cycle when the EFFR climbed by almost four percentage points. It took much longer to reach this level, however, with the hikes taking place over two years.
Timing Interest Rate Hikes
Why are 2022’s interest rate hikes so rapid? U.S. inflation far exceeds the Fed’s long-term target of 2%. In fact, when the hikes started in March 2022, inflation was the highest it’s ever been in the last six rate hike cycles.
Time Period | Inflation Rate at Start of Cycle |
---|---|
Mar 1988 - May 1989 | 3.60% |
Feb 1994 - Feb 1995 | 2.06% |
Jun 1999 - May 2000 | 1.40% |
Jun 2004 - Jun 2006 | 2.89% |
Dec 2015 - Dec 2018 | 0.30% |
Mar 2022 - Sep 2022 | 6.77% |
Inflation rate is the year-over-year change as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.
In contrast, three of the rate hike cycles started with inflation at or below the 2% target. Inflation was just 0.30% in December 2015 when the Fed announced its first rate hike since the global financial crisis.
Some criticized the Fed for raising rates prematurely, but the Fed’s rationale was that it can take up to three years or more for policy actions to affect economic conditions. By raising rates early and gradually, the Fed hoped to avoid surging inflation in the future.
Fast forward to today, and the picture couldn’t look more different. Inflation exceeded the 2% target for 12 months before the Fed began to raise rates. Initially, the Fed believed inflation was “transitory” or short-lived. Now, inflation is a top financial concern and there is a risk that it has gathered enough momentum that it will be difficult to bring down.
Balancing Inflation and Recession Risks
The Fed expects to raise its target rate to around 4.4% by the end of 2022, up from the current range of 3-3.25%. However, they don’t foresee inflation reaching their 2% target until 2025.
In the meantime, the rapid interest rate hikes could lead to an economic downturn. Risks of a global recession have increased as other central banks raise their rates too. The World Bank offers policymakers a number of suggestions to help avoid a recession:
- Central banks can communicate policy decisions clearly to secure inflation expectations and, hopefully, reduce how much they need to raise rates.
- Governments can carefully withdraw fiscal support, develop medium-term spending and tax policies, and provide targeted help to vulnerable households.
- Other economic policymakers can help relieve supply pressures through various measures. For instance, they can introduce policies to increase labor force participation, enhance global trade networks, and bring in measures to reduce energy consumption.
Will policymakers heed this advice and, if so, will it prove sufficient to avoid a global recession?
Markets
U.S. Debt Interest Payments Reach $1 Trillion
U.S. debt interest payments have surged past the $1 trillion dollar mark, amid high interest rates and an ever-expanding debt burden.
U.S. Debt Interest Payments Reach $1 Trillion
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
The cost of paying for America’s national debt crossed the $1 trillion dollar mark in 2023, driven by high interest rates and a record $34 trillion mountain of debt.
Over the last decade, U.S. debt interest payments have more than doubled amid vast government spending during the pandemic crisis. As debt payments continue to soar, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that debt servicing costs surpassed defense spending for the first time ever this year.
This graphic shows the sharp rise in U.S. debt payments, based on data from the Federal Reserve.
A $1 Trillion Interest Bill, and Growing
Below, we show how U.S. debt interest payments have risen at a faster pace than at another time in modern history:
Date | Interest Payments | U.S. National Debt |
---|---|---|
2023 | $1.0T | $34.0T |
2022 | $830B | $31.4T |
2021 | $612B | $29.6T |
2020 | $518B | $27.7T |
2019 | $564B | $23.2T |
2018 | $571B | $22.0T |
2017 | $493B | $20.5T |
2016 | $460B | $20.0T |
2015 | $435B | $18.9T |
2014 | $442B | $18.1T |
2013 | $425B | $17.2T |
2012 | $417B | $16.4T |
2011 | $433B | $15.2T |
2010 | $400B | $14.0T |
2009 | $354B | $12.3T |
2008 | $380B | $10.7T |
2007 | $414B | $9.2T |
2006 | $387B | $8.7T |
2005 | $355B | $8.2T |
2004 | $318B | $7.6T |
2003 | $294B | $7.0T |
2002 | $298B | $6.4T |
2001 | $318B | $5.9T |
2000 | $353B | $5.7T |
1999 | $353B | $5.8T |
1998 | $360B | $5.6T |
1997 | $368B | $5.5T |
1996 | $362B | $5.3T |
1995 | $357B | $5.0T |
1994 | $334B | $4.8T |
1993 | $311B | $4.5T |
1992 | $306B | $4.2T |
1991 | $308B | $3.8T |
1990 | $298B | $3.4T |
1989 | $275B | $3.0T |
1988 | $254B | $2.7T |
1987 | $240B | $2.4T |
1986 | $225B | $2.2T |
1985 | $219B | $1.9T |
1984 | $205B | $1.7T |
1983 | $176B | $1.4T |
1982 | $157B | $1.2T |
1981 | $142B | $1.0T |
1980 | $113B | $930.2B |
1979 | $96B | $845.1B |
1978 | $84B | $789.2B |
1977 | $69B | $718.9B |
1976 | $61B | $653.5B |
1975 | $55B | $576.6B |
1974 | $50B | $492.7B |
1973 | $45B | $469.1B |
1972 | $39B | $448.5B |
1971 | $36B | $424.1B |
1970 | $35B | $389.2B |
1969 | $30B | $368.2B |
1968 | $25B | $358.0B |
1967 | $23B | $344.7B |
1966 | $21B | $329.3B |
Interest payments represent seasonally adjusted annual rate at the end of Q4.
At current rates, the U.S. national debt is growing by a remarkable $1 trillion about every 100 days, equal to roughly $3.6 trillion per year.
As the national debt has ballooned, debt payments even exceeded Medicaid outlays in 2023—one of the government’s largest expenditures. On average, the U.S. spent more than $2 billion per day on interest costs last year. Going further, the U.S. government is projected to spend a historic $12.4 trillion on interest payments over the next decade, averaging about $37,100 per American.
Exacerbating matters is that the U.S. is running a steep deficit, which stood at $1.1 trillion for the first six months of fiscal 2024. This has accelerated due to the 43% increase in debt servicing costs along with a $31 billion dollar increase in defense spending from a year earlier. Additionally, a $30 billion increase in funding for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in light of the regional banking crisis last year was a major contributor to the deficit increase.
Overall, the CBO forecasts that roughly 75% of the federal deficit’s increase will be due to interest costs by 2034.
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