Politics
The Top Global Risks in 2019
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The suits are pressed and the jets are gassed up, as global political and business leaders prepare to converge in Davos for the World Economic Forum.
To prep the wide variety of world leaders attending the summit, the organization has just published its most recent edition of the Global Risks Report. The highly anticipated annual presentation puts the world’s most pressing issues into focus, giving a sense of what is top-of-mind for global decision-makers.
Below are the top five risks highlighted in this year’s report.
The World’s Evolving Risk Landscape
The report looks at two specific ways of evaluating global risks:
- The likelihood of an event occurring
- The impact or severity of an event, should it occur
And over recent years, it’s clear that the composition of these top threats has evolved.
In 2009, the world was still reeling from the global financial crisis, so economic concerns were naturally at the forefront of discussions.
Today, the most likely scenarios to play out in the near future involve extreme weather events and natural disasters. Also trending upward are cyber-security threats and concerns over the security of personal data.
Risk Perception
Each year, the Global Risks Perception Survey looks at which risks are viewed by global decision-makers as increasing in the coming year.
Some clear themes emerge from the responses:
A Breakdown in Geopolitical Cooperation
From trade wars to the dissolution of weapons treaties, cooperation between countries is on the decline. Leaders are concerned that this divergent geopolitical climate may continue to inhibit collective progress on important global challenges.
Technological Instabilities
As the influence of technology creeps into more aspects of everyday life, cyber-attacks and lax cybersecurity protocols are becoming more of a concern. In one dramatic example information theft, multiple breaches of India’s government ID database reportedly left the information of over 1 billion registered citizens exposed. Technology is influencing society in other ways too, such as the pervasive issue of “fake news”.
Polarization of Government and Society
One of the major themes of this year’s forum will be addressing increasing polarization in many countries.
Where opposing political groups previously expressed frustration with each other, they now express fear and anger.
– Global Risks Report 2019
Gauging the National Sentiment
The report also looks at questions related to human happiness too.
One might ask, “Is the world becoming a better or worse place?” That, of course, is a complicated question, and one that is influenced by geography and socioeconomic standing.
Survey data also shows that when people are asked to compare their lives to their parents’ generation, the answers vary greatly from country to country.
The prevailing opinion in China is that things are improving, whereas nearly 60% of French respondents had a pessimistic view of the realities facing their generation. While France has a uniquely gloomy outlook on the future, this uncertainty is reflected in the opinion of citizens in many other developed democracies as well.
In Davos, global leaders will be pondering a similar question: How do we move towards a brighter future for the next generation when the collective will for tackling global problems appears to be weakening?
Economy
Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts
We provide a data-driven overview of how the recent BRICS expansion will grow the group’s influence and reach.
Visualizing the BRICS Expansion in 4 Charts
BRICS is an association of five major countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Distinguished by their emerging economies, the group has sought to improve diplomatic coordination, reform global financial institutions, and ultimately serve as a counterbalance to Western hegemony.
On Aug. 24, 2023, BRICS announced that it would formally accept six new members at the start of 2024: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In this graphic, we provide a data-driven overview of how the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s influence and reach.
Share of Global GDP
Because most of the new BRICS members are considered to be developing economies, their addition to the group will not have a major impact on its overall share of GDP.
The following table includes GDP projections for 2023, courtesy of the IMF.
| Original BRICS Member | Country | GDP (USD billions) | Share of Global (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | $2,081 | 2.0% |
| Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | $2,063 | 2.0% |
| Yes | 🇮🇳 India | $3,737 | 3.6% |
| Yes | 🇨🇳 China | $19,374 | 18.4% |
| Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | $399 | 0.4% |
| No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | $1,062 | 1.0% |
| No | 🇮🇷 Iran | $368 | 0.4% |
| No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | $156 | 0.1% |
| No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | $387 | 0.4% |
| No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | $641 | 0.6% |
| No | 🇦🇪 UAE | $499 | 0.5% |
| - | BRICS Total | $30,767 | 29.3% |
| - | Rest of World | $74,362 | 70.7% |
The original six BRICS members are expected to have a combined GDP of $27.6 trillion in 2023, representing 26.3% of the global total. With the new members included, expected GDP climbs slightly to $30.8 trillion, enough for a 29.3% global share.
Share of Global Population
BRICS has always represented a major chunk of global population thanks to China and India, which are the only countries with over 1 billion people.
The two biggest populations being added to BRICS are Ethiopia (126.5 million) and Egypt (112.7 million). See the following table for population data from World Population Review, which is dated as of 2023.
| Original BRICS Member | Country | Population | Share of Global (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 216,422,446 | 2.7% |
| Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 144,444,359 | 1.8% |
| Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 1,428,627,663 | 17.8% |
| Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 1,425,671,352 | 17.7% |
| Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 60,414,495 | 0.8% |
| No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 36,947,025 | 0.5% |
| No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 89,172,767 | 1.1% |
| No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 126,527,060 | 1.6% |
| No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 112,716,598 | 1.4% |
| No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 45,773,884 | 0.6% |
| No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 9,516,871 | 0.1% |
| - | BRICS Total | 3.7 billion | 46.0% |
| - | Rest of World | 4.3 billion | 54.0% |
It’s possible that BRICS could eventually surpass 50% of global population, as many more countries have expressed their desire to join.
Share of Oil Production
Although the world is trying to move away from fossil fuels, the global oil market is still incredibly large—and BRICS is set to play a much bigger role in it. This is mostly due to the admission of Saudi Arabia, which alone accounts for 12.9% of global oil production.
Based on 2022 figures from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, BRICS’ share of oil production will grow from 20.4% to 43.1%.
| Original BRICS Member | Country | Thousand Barrels per Day | Share of Global (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 3,107 | 3.3% |
| Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 11,202 | 11.9% |
| Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 737 | 0.8% |
| Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 4,111 | 4.4% |
| Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0 | 0.0% |
| No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 12,136 | 12.9% |
| No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 3,822 | 4.1% |
| No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 0 | 0.0% |
| No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 613 | 0.7% |
| No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 706 | 0.8% |
| No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 4,020 | 4.3% |
| - | BRICS Total | 40,454 | 43.1% |
| - | Rest of World | 53,394 | 56.9% |
It’s worth noting that China has been pushing for oil trade to be denominated in yuan, and that Saudi Arabia’s acceptance into BRICS could bolster this ambition, potentially shifting the dynamics of global oil trade.
Share of Global Exports
The last metric included in our graphic is global exports, which is based on 2022 data from the World Trade Organization. We can see that the BRICS expansion will grow the group’s share of global exports (merchandise trade) to 25.1%, up from 20.2%.
| Original BRICS Member | Country | Exports (USD billions) | Share of Global (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 334 | 1.3% |
| Yes | 🇷🇺 Russia | 532 | 2.1% |
| Yes | 🇮🇳 India | 453 | 1.8% |
| Yes | 🇨🇳 China | 3,594 | 14.4% |
| Yes | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 123 | 0.5% |
| No | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 410 | 1.6% |
| No | 🇮🇷 Iran | 73 | 0.3% |
| No | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 3.9 | 0.02% |
| No | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 49 | 0.2% |
| No | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 88 | 0.4% |
| No | 🇦🇪 UAE | 599 | 2.4% |
| - | BRICS Total | 6,259 | 25.1% |
| - | Rest of World | 18,646 | 74.9% |
Unsurprisingly, China is the world’s largest exporter. Major exporters that are not a part of BRICS include the U.S. (8.3%), Germany (6.6%), the Netherlands (3.9%), and Japan (3.0%).
Who Else Wants to Join?
According to Reuters, there are over 40 countries that have expressed interest in joining BRICS. A smaller group of 16 countries have actually applied for membership, though, and this list includes Algeria, Cuba, Indonesia, Palestine, and Vietnam.
As the group grows in size, differing opinions and priorities among its members could create tensions in the future. For example, India and China have had numerous border disputes in recent years, while Brazil’s newly elected President has sought to “kickstart a new era of relations” with the U.S.
One thing that is certain, however, is that a new acronym for the group will be needed very soon.
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