Globalization has been a powerful force in shaping modern human history.
The world economy has become increasingly connected and interdependent over recent decades, and conventional wisdom suggests that this will only continue in the years ahead.
But while it’s tempting to extrapolate the past effects of globalization into the future, such a leap may also be a mistake. That’s because there is growing evidence that globalization itself is quietly transforming – and how it ultimately evolves may be markedly different from what most business leaders might expect.
How Globalization is Changing
Today’s infographic highlights the most recent research about globalization from the McKinsey Global Institute, the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company.
Below are five major shifts that have gone mostly unnoticed, as well as the countries and companies that could benefit:
The findings of the report show that globalization is not static or constant, and that structural changes in the nature of globalization have been occurring in the background over the last decade or so.
>> View the Complete Report Here:
“Globalization in transition: The future of trade and value chains”
The impact that these shifts could have on the global economy is substantial: international trade already adds up to $22.4 trillion each year, or about 28% of global GDP. Even a minor change in this paradigm could affect the list of countries, corporations, and workers that stand to benefit.
The 5 Ways Globalization is Changing
The report looks into 23 different industry value chains in 43 different countries, representing 96% of global trade.
From that comprehensive data, five major structural shifts have been identified:
1. A smaller share of goods is traded across borders
Trade is still growing in absolute terms, but a smaller share of the physical goods made worldwide is now being traded. More specifically, during the span of 2007 to 2017, gross exports as a percentage of gross output decreased from 28.1% to 22.5% globally.
2. Services trade is growing 60% faster than goods trade
When we think of trade, we often focus on the trade of physical goods (i.e. autos, aerospace, oil). However, services are becoming increasingly important to the global economy – and if accounted for properly, it’s possible that the value of services is closer to $13.4 trillion, which is higher than the total goods trade.
3. Labor-cost arbitrage has become less important
It’s a common perception that trade flows are driven by companies searching for low-cost labor. However, in value chains today, only 18% of the goods trade is based strictly on labor-cost arbitrage.
4. R&D and innovation are becoming increasingly important
Companies are spending more on R&D and intangible assets such as brands, software, and IP as a percentage of overall revenue. This spending has increased from 5.4% to 13.1% of revenue over the period of 2000-2017.
5. Trade is becoming more concentrated within regions
The geography of global demand is changing as emerging markets consume a higher percentage of total goods. Since 2013, intraregional trade has increased by 2.7 percentage points – a reverse from the longstanding trend.
The mix of countries, companies, and workers that stand to gain in the next era is changing.
– McKinsey Global Institute
Why These Changes Matter
What types of countries are likely to benefit from these shifts, and which will face headwinds?
|Type of economy||Possible opportunities or challenges|
|Advanced economies||Strengths in innovation, services, and highly skilled talent put advanced economies in a strategic position to benefit from changes in globalization|
|Developing economies with close proximity to large consumer markets||As production moves closer to consumers, developing economies in close proximity can take advantage|
|Developing economies that are less connected||The window is narrowing for low-income countries to use labor-intensive exports as a development strategy|
Policy makers and business leaders must understand how the trade landscape is shifting so they can prepare for globalization’s next chapter and the opportunities and challenges it will present.
The World’s Most Innovative Economies
What countries have the most innovative economies? This index uses seven equally-weighted variables, including R&D spending and patents, to rank countries.
The World’s 10 Most Innovative Economies
In the 21st century, innovation has become the heart and soul of economic policy. Developed and developing nations alike are in the race to leave industrialization behind, adapting instead to technology-focused, entrepreneurial societies.
Customized cancer treatment, faux meat products, and the smart home technologies are frequently positioned as ‘the next big thing’. But which countries are consistently innovating the most?
Today’s graphic comes from the seventh annual Bloomberg Innovation Index and highlights the 10 most innovative economies, and the seven metrics used to rank 2019’s top contenders.
Bloomberg calculated each country’s innovation score using seven equally-weighted metrics.
- R&D Spending
All research and development funding invested in an economy each year.
- Patent Activity
Number of domestic patents filed, total patent grants, patents per population, filings per GDP, and total grants awarded measured against the global total.
- Tertiary Efficiency
Total enrollment at post-secondary institutions, graduation levels, and number of science and engineering graduates.
- Manufacturing Value-added
Manufacturing output levels that contribute to exports and domestic economic growth.
Overall productivity levels of the working-age population.
- High-tech Density
Number of domestic high-tech public companies, measured against the number of domestic public companies and the global total of public high-tech companies.
- Researcher Concentration
Number of professionals currently engaged in research and development roles.
More than 200 countries were initially considered for Bloomberg’s Innovation Index. Any country reporting in less than six categories was automatically eliminated, leaving 95 countries remaining. Bloomberg publishes the results for the top 60 most innovative economies each year.
Notable Countries in the Top 60
The U.S. rejoined the top 10 after dropping to 11th in 2018 for low scores in education. Israel moved up five spots to 5th place, while Romania made the largest overall gain, jumping six spots to rank in the top 30.
|2019 Rank||Economy||Total Score||Change in Ranking|
|#1||🇰🇷 South Korea||87.38||0|
|#8||🇺🇸 United States||83.21||3|
Brazil rejoined the list at number 45, after not being included on the 2018 list. The United Arab Emirates made the list for the first time, marking the highest debut ever at number 46.
Tunisia and Ukraine were the two countries with the largest losses, which both fell out of the top 50 this year. To date, South Africa is the only Sub-Saharan nation to be ranked in the index.
Newcomers to the Innovation Index in 2019 are some of the largest emerging economies, such as India, Mexico, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia.
Impact of Global Innovation
Innovation is complex─many factors play a role in the ideation, development, and commercialization of any new technology. And while innovation success can fuel economic growth, it is generally more accessible in high-income economies, where R&D funding is readily available.
“The battle for control of the global economy in the 21st century will be won and lost over control of innovative technologies.”
—Tom Orlik, Bloomberg Economics
The focus of an economy that prioritizes innovation, however, is not simply allocating resources for a group of people─it’s discovering new methods, models, and products that create a better quality of life for society.
A Timeline of U-Turns from the Chinese Market
It’s hard to ignore the massive economic opportunities available in the Chinese market, but it’s also notoriously difficult to succeed in.
China’s economic surge is one of the biggest stories of the 21st century.
Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty, and China’s swelling middle class has attracted the interest of Western companies.
As many American companies have discovered, doing business in China is far from straightforward. Recent history is littered with examples of companies that entered the Chinese market to great fanfare, only to retreat a few years later.
Calling Off The Offensive
Today’s infographic highlights 11 companies that ended up tapping the brakes on their ambitious forays on the other side of the Pacific.
Then, we take a look at the factors that influenced these strategic withdrawals.
Here are some high profile examples of corporate u-turns by American companies operating in the Chinese market:
When Google China’s search engine was launched in 2006, the company had made the controversial decision to censor search results within the country. Google publicly displayed a disclaimer indicating that some results were removed, which created tensions with the Chinese government.
For a while, things seemed to be going well. Even though a domestic company, Baidu, had captured the majority of the Chinese search market, Google did have a respectable market share of about 30%.
Google China’s fortune took a turn for the worse in 2010 after a major hack – Operation Aurora – exposed user data as well as intellectual property. The hack, which originated from within China, was the last straw for Google’s executive team. After one last ditch effort to provide unfiltered search results within China, the company retreated beyond the firewall.
Amazon was an early entrant into the Chinese market. In 2004, the company acquired Joyo – an online shopping site – which was eventually rebranded to Amazon China in 2011.
Amazon China achieved some early success hitting a market share of around 15%, but today, that market share has eroded to less than 1%. Facing nearly insurmountable competition from domestic e-commerce platforms like JD and Taobao, the company recently announced it would be exiting the Chinese market.
After arriving fashionably late for the ride-hailing party in 2014, it quickly became clear that Uber was facing an uphill battle against well-funded domestic rivals. After only two years, Uber elected to u-turn out of the Chinese market.
Though Uber’s tactical exit from China is often viewed as a failure, the company has earned upwards of $8B through its sale to competitor Didi Chuxing.
A Two-Way Street
Now that red-hot growth at home is beginning to taper off, a number of Chinese companies have begun their push into other markets around the world. Much like their American counterparts, brands pushing beyond China’s borders are seeing varied success in their expansion efforts.
One high-profile example is Huawei. The telecommunications giant has been making inroads in countries around the world – particularly in emerging markets – but has seen pushback and scrutiny in a number of developed economies. Huawei has become a lightning rod for growing concerns over government surveillance and China’s growing influence over the global communications network.
Already, Australia has blocked the company from participating in its 5G network, and in the United States, government agencies are banned from buying Huawei gear.
If negative sentiment continues to build, it remains to be seen whether Huawei and other Chinese companies will follow the playbook of American brands in China, and turn the car around.
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