Markets
The Population Race: A 300-Year Look at China vs. India
Click on “Add Country” to compare more population trajectories, or explore the historical map and full data tables.
The Population Race: A 300-Year Look at China vs. India
One of the biggest demographic milestones that our world faces is less than a decade away.
Today, China and India boast the largest populations, outpacing all others by a mile. The total populations of these two nations have been climbing for years, but India is moving at a faster clip. The big question is: When will India overtake China in population?
This interactive chart by Our World in Data pulls past and projected population data from the United Nations, comparing the 300-year trajectory of China vs. India to answer this burning question.
China vs. India Population (1800-2100p)
In 1800, India’s population was at a modest 169 million. In contrast, the Chinese population was nearly double that with 322 million at the turn of the 19th century.
It wasn’t until 1950 that the total populations of both countries started shooting up exponentially, and here’s where it starts to get interesting. China reached the 1 billion milestone in 1980, while India took a little longer to get there in 1997.
And now, India is on target to overtake China’s total population in 2026, when both countries are expected to be at the 1.46 billion people mark.
Country | 1800 | 2026p | 2100p | Absolute change (1800-2100) | Relative change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | 321.68M | 1.46B | 1.06B | +743.3M | 231% |
🇮🇳 India | 168.57M | 1.46B | 1.45B | +1.28B | 758% |
*Note: Absolute change numbers may not be exact due to rounding.
Although the populations of both countries will begin contracting in the mid-21st century, India is expected to stay atop the global population leaderboard even by more moderate estimates.
China vs. India Demographics
While it appears that population growth in India is effectively mirroring that of China, there’s more to examine under the surface.
What demographic trends lie behind the eventual contraction later this century? Let’s look at the two population pyramids to find out.
In China, growth has been underscored by a strict “one-child” policy, implemented in 1979. Even with the updated “two-child” policy in 2016, there’s no coming back from this decision—China is now contending with a rapidly aging population. It’s anticipated that over one-third of Chinese citizens will be 65 years old and above by 2050.
Meanwhile in neighboring India, the workforce is just beginning to take off—65% of its population is currently aged 35 years and below. High rates of digital adoption are further compounding economic growth in the country, especially as the world becomes increasingly reliant on telecom and IT services.
China vs. India Economy
Another question this dramatic change begs is: at these rates of population change, can India’s GDP growth also surpass China’s in the next several decades?
The short answer is likely a no, although both countries will still see immense GDP gains during this time. According to PwC, six of the seven largest economies in the world by 2050 will be today’s emerging markets—led by China and India in that order.
Country | GDP (PPP) 2016 | GDP (PPP) 2050 | Share of global GDP (2050) | Change (2016-2050) |
---|---|---|---|---|
🇨🇳 China | $21.3T | $58.5T | 20% | +2% (p.p.) |
🇮🇳 India | $8.7T | $44.1T | 15% | +8% (p.p.) |
🇺🇸 U.S. | $18.6T | $34.1T | 12% | -4% (p.p.) |
While India isn’t likely to be the “next” China in terms of global GDP, it’s certainly giving it a fair fight as a potential rising superpower—and it all stems from the combined might of its growing population.
Markets
The Top Google Searches Related to Investing in 2022
What was on investors’ minds in 2022? Discover the top Google searches and how the dominant trends played out in portfolios.


The Top Google Searches Related to Investing in 2022
It was a turbulent year for the markets in 2022, with geopolitical conflict, rising prices, and the labor market playing key roles. Which stories captured investors’ attention the most?
This infographic from New York Life Investments outlines the top Google searches related to investing in 2022, and offers a closer look at some of the trends.
Top Google Searches: Year in Review
We picked some of the top economic and investing stories that saw peak search interest in the U.S. each month, according to Google Trends.
Month of Peak Interest | Search Term |
---|---|
January | Great Resignation |
February | Russian Stock Market |
March | Oil Price |
April | Housing Bubble |
May | Value Investing |
June | Bitcoin |
July | Recession |
August | Inflation |
September | US Dollar |
October | OPEC |
November | Layoffs |
December | Interest Rate Forecast |
Data based on exact searches in the U.S. from December 26, 2021 to December 18, 2022.
Let’s look at each quarter in more detail, to see how these top Google searches were related to activity in the economy and investors’ portfolios.
Q1 2022
The start of the year was marked by U.S. workers quitting their jobs in record numbers, and the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. For instance, the price of crude oil skyrocketed after the war caused supply uncertainties. Early March’s peak of $125 per barrel was a 13-year high.
Date | Closing Price of WTI Crude Oil (USD/Barrel) |
---|---|
January 2, 2022 | $76 |
March 3, 2022 | $125 |
December 29, 2022 | $80 |
While crude oil lost nearly all its gains by year-end, the energy sector in general performed well. In fact, the S&P 500 Energy Index gained 57% over the year compared to the S&P 500’s 19% loss.
Q2 2022
The second quarter of 2022 saw abnormal house price growth, renewed interest in value investing, and a bitcoin crash. In particular, value investing performed much better than growth investing over the course of the year.
Index | Price Return in 2022 |
---|---|
S&P 500 Value Index | -7.4% |
S&P 500 Growth Index | -30.1% |
Value stocks have typically outperformed during periods of rising rates, and 2022 was no exception.
Q3 2022
The third quarter was defined by worries about a recession and inflation, along with interest in the rising U.S. dollar. In fact, the U.S. dollar gained against nearly every major currency.
Currency | USD Appreciation Against Currency (Dec 31 2020-Sep 30 2022) |
---|---|
Japanese Yen | 40.1% |
Chinese Yuan | 9.2% |
Euro | 25.1% |
Canadian Dollar | 7.2% |
British Pound | 22.0% |
Australian Dollar | 18.1% |
Higher interest rates made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors, since it meant they would get a higher return on their fixed income investments.
Q4 2022
The end of the year was dominated by OPEC cutting oil production, high layoffs in the tech sector, and curiosity about the future of interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s December 2022 economic projections offer clues about the trajectory of the policy rate.
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Longer Run | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Minimum Projection | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
Median Projection | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
Maximum Projection | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
The Federal Reserve expects interest rates to peak in 2023, with rates to remain elevated above pre-pandemic levels for the foreseeable future.
The Top Google Searches to Come
After a year of volatility across asset classes, economic uncertainty remains. Which themes will become investors’ top Google searches in 2023?
Find out how New York Life Investments can help you make sense of market trends.

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