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Visualizing How the Demographics of China and India are Diverging

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How the Demographics of China and India are Diverging

Within popular discourse, especially in the West, the profiles of China and India have become inextricably linked.

Aside from their massive populations and geographical proximity in Asia, the two nations also have deep cultural histories and traditions, growing amounts of influence on the world stage, and burgeoning middle classes.

China and India combine to be home to one-third of the world’s megacities, and they even had identical real GDP growth rates of 6.1% in 2019, based on early estimates by the IMF.

Diverging Demographics

But aside from the obvious differences in their political regimes, the two populous nations have also diverged in another way: demographics.

As seen in today’s animation, which comes from AnimateData and leverages data from the United Nations, the two countries are expected to have very different demographic compositions over time as their populations age.

The easiest way to see this is through a macro lens:

Populations of China and India (1950-2100)

 1950201920502100
🇮🇳 India 0.38 billion1.37 billion1.64 billion1.45 billion
🇨🇳 China0.55 billion1.43 billion1.40 billion1.06 billion

Although the countries have roughly the same populations today — by 2050, India will add roughly 270 million more citizens, and China’s total will actually decrease by 30 million people.

Let’s look at the demographic profiles of these countries to break things down further. We’ll do this by charting populations of age groups (0-14 years, 15-24 years, 25-64 years, and 65+ years).

China: Aftermath of the One-Child Policy

China’s one-child policy was implemented in 1979 — and although it became no longer effective starting in 2016, there’s no doubt that the long-term demographic impacts of this drastic measure will be felt for generations:

China Demographic Profile by Age and Population

The first thing you’ll notice in the above chart is that China’s main working age population cohort (25-64 years) has essentially already peaked in size.

Further, you’ll notice that the populations of children (0-14 years) and young adults (15-24 years) have both been on the decline for decades.

Typical population age structure diagrams

A reduction in births is something that happens naturally in a demographic transition. As an economy becomes more developed, it’s common for fertility rates to decrease — but in China’s case, it has happened prematurely through policy. As a result, the country’s age distribution doesn’t really fit a typical profile.

India: A Workforce Peaking in 2050

Meanwhile, projections have India reaching a peak workforce age population near the year 2050:

India Demographic Profile by Age and Population

By the year 2050, it’s estimated that India’s workforce age population will be comparable in size to that of China’s today — over 800 million people strong.

However, given that this is at least 30 years in the future, it raises all kinds of questions around the economic relevance of a “working age” population in a landscape potentially dominated by technologies such as artificial intelligence and automation.

Different Paths

While it’s clear that the world’s two most populous countries have some key similarities, they are both on very different demographic paths at the moment.

China’s population has plateaued, and will eventually decline over the remainder of the 21st century. There is plenty of room to grow economically, but the weight of an aging population will create additional social and economic pressures. By 2050, it’s estimated that over one-third of the country will be 60 years or older.

On the other hand, India is following a more traditional demographic path, as long as it is uninterrupted by drastic policy decisions. The country will likely top out at 1.6-1.7 billion people, before it begins to experience the typical demographic transition already experienced by more developed economies in North America, Europe, and Japan.

And by the time the Indian workforce age group hits 800+ million people, it will be interesting to see how things interplay with the world’s inevitable technological shift to automation and a changing role for labor.

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Politics

Mapped: The Countries With the Most Military Spending

Global military spending surpassed $1.9 trillion in 2019, but nearly 75% of this total can be traced to just 10 countries.

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Mapped: The Countries With the Most Military Spending

Whether it’s fight or flight, there’s a natural tendency of humans to want to protect themselves.

In this day and age, this base instinct takes the form of a nation’s expenditures on armies and armaments, towards an end goal of global security and peacekeeping.

This graphic from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) delves into the top military spenders as of 2019.

Top 10 Biggest Military Spenders

Let’s first take a look at the overall growth trends. The world’s military spending grew by 3.6% year-over-year (YoY)—currently the highest rate this decade—to surpass $1.9 trillion in 2019.

While just 10 countries are responsible for nearly 75% of this amount, the U.S. alone made up the lion’s share with 38% of the global total. In fact, its YoY rise in spending alone of $49.2 billion rivals Germany’s entire spending for the same year.

Naturally, many questions rise about where this money goes, including the inevitable surplus of military equipment, from night vision goggles to armored vehicles, that trickles down to law enforcement around the nation.

Here’s how world’s top 10 military spenders compare against each other:

CountryMilitary Spending ('19)YoY % changeMilitary Spending as % of GDP ('19)
U.S. 🇺🇸$731.8B+5.3%3.4%
China 🇨🇳$261.1B+5.1%1.9%
India 🇮🇳$71.1B+6.8%2.4%
Russia 🇷🇺$65.1B+4.5%3.9%
Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦$61.2B-16.0%8.0%
France 🇫🇷$50.1B+1.6%1.9%
Germany 🇩🇪$49.3B+10.0%1.3%
UK 🇬🇧$48.7B0.0%1.7%
Japan 🇯🇵$47.6B-0.1%0.9%
South Korea 🇰🇷$43.9B+7.5%2.7%
Global Total$1.92T+3.6%2.2%

China and India, currently embroiled in a border dispute, have upped the ante for military spending in Asia. India is also involved in clashes with its neighbor Pakistan for territorial claim over Kashmir—one of the most contested borders in the world.

India’s tensions and rivalry with both Pakistan and China are among the major drivers for its increased military spending.

—Siemon T. Wezeman, SIPRI Senior Researcher

Germany leads among the top spenders in terms of highest YoY military spending increases. According to SIPRI, this is a preemptive measure in the face of perceived growing Russian threats.

These concerns may not be unfounded, considering that Russia comes in fourth for defense expenditures on the global stage—and budgets more towards military spending than any country in Europe, at 3.9% of its total GDP.

Military Spending as a Share of GDP

Looking more closely at the numbers, it’s clear that some nations place a higher value on defense than others. A country’s military expenses as a share of GDP is the most straightforward expression of this.

How do the biggest spenders change when this measure is taken into consideration?

Military Spending by GDP Share

Eight of the 15 countries with the highest military spending as a percentage of GDP are concentrated in the Middle East, with an average allocation of 4.5% of a nation’s GDP.

It’s worth noting that data is missing for various countries in the Middle East, such as Yemen, which has been mired in a civil war since 2011. While SIPRI estimates that combined military spending in the region fell by 7.5% in 2019, these significant data gaps mean that such estimates may not in fact line up with the reality.

Explore the full data set of all available countries below.

Country2019 Spending, US$B2019 Share of GDP
U.S.$731.753.4%
China$261.081.9%
India$71.132.4%
Russia$65.103.9%
Saudi Arabia$61.878.0%
France$50.121.9%
Germany$49.281.3%
UK$48.651.7%
Japan$47.610.9%
South Korea$43.892.7%
Italy$26.791.4%
Australia$25.911.9%
Canada$22.201.3%
Israel$20.475.3%
Turkey$20.452.7%
Spain$17.181.2%
Iran$12.622.3%
Netherlands$12.061.3%
Poland$11.902.0%
Singapore$11.213.2%
Taiwan$10.421.7%
Algeria$10.306.0%
Pakistan$10.264.0%
Colombia$10.083.2%
Kuwait$7.715.6%
Indonesia$7.670.7%
Iraq$7.603.5%
Thailand$7.321.3%
Norway$7.001.7%
Oman$6.738.8%
Mexico$6.540.5%
Sweden$5.921.1%
Greece$5.472.6%
Ukraine$5.233.4%
Switzerland$5.180.7%
Romania$4.952.0%
Belgium$4.820.9%
Denmark$4.561.3%
Portugal$4.511.9%
Bangladesh$4.361.3%
Finland$3.971.5%
Malaysia$3.771.0%
Egypt$3.741.2%
Morocco$3.723.1%
Philippines$3.471.0%
South Africa$3.471.0%
Austria$3.240.7%
Argentina$3.140.7%
New Zealand$2.931.5%
Czechia$2.911.2%
Brazil$2.731.5%
Peru$2.731.2%
Lebanon$2.524.2%
Bulgaria$2.133.2%
Jordan$2.034.7%
Hungary$1.901.2%
Slovakia$1.871.8%
Nigeria$1.860.5%
Azerbaijan$1.854.0%
Ecuador$1.772.3%
Kazakhstan$1.771.1%
Sri Lanka$1.671.9%
Angola$1.471.6%
Bahrain$1.413.7%
Uruguay$1.222.0%
Kenya$1.151.2%
Chile$1.151.8%
Serbia$1.142.2%
Ireland$1.110.3%
Lithuania$1.082.0%
Croatia$1.011.7%
Tunisia$1.002.6%
Tanzania$0.801.3%
Belarus$0.781.2%
Sudan$0.721.6%
Latvia$0.712.0%
Armenia$0.674.9%
Estonia$0.662.1%
Uganda$0.652.1%
Dominican Republic$0.620.7%
Cambodia$0.602.3%
Bolivia$0.601.4%
Slovenia$0.571.1%
Zimbabwe$0.550.7%
Ethiopia$0.550.6%
Côte d’Ivoire$0.541.1%
Botswana$0.522.8%
Mali$0.472.7%
Luxembourg$0.430.6%
Nepal$0.431.6%
Cameroon$0.421.1%
Paraguay$0.421.0%
Brunei$0.423.3%
Namibia$0.413.0%
Honduras$0.401.6%
Cyprus$0.401.6%
Burkina Faso$0.362.4%
DRC$0.350.7%
Senegal$0.351.5%
Guatemala$0.340.4%
El Salvador$0.321.2%
Georgia$0.322.0%
Republic of Congo$0.302.7%
Zambia$0.291.2%
Gabon$0.271.6%
Jamaica$0.271.6%
Chad$0.242.2%
Ghana$0.230.4%
Afghanistan$0.231.2%
Albania$0.201.3%
Guinea$0.202.0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina$0.180.9%
Niger$0.171.8%
Togo$0.173.1%
Trinidad & Tobago$0.170.7%
Mauritiana$0.162.8%
North Macedonia$0.151.2%
Mozambique$0.140.9%
Krygyzstan$0.121.5%
Guyana$0.121.7%
Rwanda$0.121.2%
Mongolia$0.100.7%
Montenegro$0.091.6%
eSwatini$0.091.8%
South Sudan$0.093.4%
Malta$0.800.6%
Fiji$0.081.6%
Nicaragua$0.080.7%
Papua New Guinea$0.080.4%
Madagascar$0.080.6%
Benin$0.070.7%
Malawi$0.070.9%
Kosovo$0.070.8%
Burundi$0.061.8%
Lesotho$0.041.5%
Moldova$0.040.4%
Timor-Leste$0.031.0%
Central African Republic$0.031.5%
Sierra Leone$0.030.7%
Seychelles$0.021.3%
Belize$0.021.2%
Mauritius$0.020.2%
Liberia$0.020.5%
Gambia$0.010.8%
Cape Verde$0.010.5%
Haiti$00.0%
Costa Rica$00.0%
Iceland$00.0%
Panama$00.0%

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Markets

Charting the Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market

This infographic charts the rise and fall of the $308 billion global personal luxury market, and explores what the coming year holds for its growth

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The Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market

Global demand for personal luxury goods has been steadily increasing for decades, resulting in an industry worth $308 billion in 2019.

However, the insatiable desire for consumers to own nice things was suddenly interrupted by the coming of COVID-19, and experts are predicting a brutal contraction of up to one-third of the current luxury good market size this year.

Will the industry bounce back? Or will it return as something noticeably different?

A Once Promising Trajectory

The global luxury goods market—which includes beauty, apparel, and accessories—has compounded at a 6% pace since the 1990s.

Recent years of growth in the personal luxury goods market can be mostly attributed to Chinese consumers. This geographic market accounted for 90% of total sales growth in 2019, followed by the Europe and the Americas.

Analysts suggest that China’s younger luxury goods consumers in particular have significant spending power, with an average spend of $6,000 (¥41,000) per person in pre-COVID times.

An Industry Now in Distress

The lethal combination of reduced foot traffic and decreased consumer spending in the first quarter of 2020 has brought the retail industry to its knees.

In fact, more than 80% of fashion and luxury players will experience financial distress as a result of extended store closures.

luxury market McKinsey supplemental

With iconic luxury retailers such as Neiman Marcus filing for bankruptcy, the pressure on the luxury industry is clear. It should be noted however, that companies who were experiencing distress before the COVID-19 outbreak will be the hardest hit.

Predicting the Collapse

In a recent report, Bain & Company estimated a 25% to 30% global luxury market contraction for the first quarter of 2020 based on several economic variables. They have also modeled three scenarios to predict the performance for the remainder of 2020.

  • Optimistic scenario: A limited market contraction of 15% to 18%, assuming increased consumer demand for the second and third quarter of the year, roughly equating to a sales decline of $46 billion to $56 billion.
  • Intermediate scenario: A moderate market contraction of between 22% and 25%, or $68 to $77 billion.
  • Worst-case scenario: A steep contraction of between 30% and 35%, equating to $92 billion to $108 billion. This assumes a longer period of sales decline.

Although there are signs of recovery in China, the industry is not expected to fully return to 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest. By that stage, the industry could have transformed entirely.

Changing Consumer Mindsets

Since the beginning of the pandemic, one-quarter of consumers have delayed purchasing luxury items. In fact, a portion of those who have delayed purchasing luxury goods are now considering entirely new avenues, such as seeking out cheaper alternatives.

However, most people surveyed claim that they will postpone buying luxury items until they can get a better deal on price.

luxury market supplemental

This frugal mindset could spark an interesting behavioral shift, and set the stage for a new category to emerge from the ashes—the second-hand luxury market.

Numerous sources claim that pre-owned luxury could in fact overtake the traditional luxury market, and the pandemic economy could very well be a tipping point.

The Future of Luxury

Medium-term market growth could be driven by a number of factors, from a global growing middle class and their demand for luxury products, as well as retailers’ sudden shift to e-commerce.

While analysts can only rely on predictions to determine the future of personal luxury, it is clear that the industry is at a crossroads.

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