Animation: How the Demographics of China and India are Diverging
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Visualizing How the Demographics of China and India are Diverging

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How the Demographics of China and India are Diverging

Within popular discourse, especially in the West, the profiles of China and India have become inextricably linked.

Aside from their massive populations and geographical proximity in Asia, the two nations also have deep cultural histories and traditions, growing amounts of influence on the world stage, and burgeoning middle classes.

China and India combine to be home to one-third of the world’s megacities, and they even had identical real GDP growth rates of 6.1% in 2019, based on early estimates by the IMF.

Diverging Demographics

But aside from the obvious differences in their political regimes, the two populous nations have also diverged in another way: demographics.

As seen in today’s animation, which comes from AnimateData and leverages data from the United Nations, the two countries are expected to have very different demographic compositions over time as their populations age.

The easiest way to see this is through a macro lens:

Populations of China and India (1950-2100)

 1950201920502100
🇮🇳 India 0.38 billion1.37 billion1.64 billion1.45 billion
🇨🇳 China0.55 billion1.43 billion1.40 billion1.06 billion

Although the countries have roughly the same populations today — by 2050, India will add roughly 270 million more citizens, and China’s total will actually decrease by 30 million people.

Let’s look at the demographic profiles of these countries to break things down further. We’ll do this by charting populations of age groups (0-14 years, 15-24 years, 25-64 years, and 65+ years).

China: Aftermath of the One-Child Policy

China’s one-child policy was implemented in 1979 — and although it became no longer effective starting in 2016, there’s no doubt that the long-term demographic impacts of this drastic measure will be felt for generations:

China Demographic Profile by Age and Population

The first thing you’ll notice in the above chart is that China’s main working age population cohort (25-64 years) has essentially already peaked in size.

Further, you’ll notice that the populations of children (0-14 years) and young adults (15-24 years) have both been on the decline for decades.

Typical population age structure diagrams

A reduction in births is something that happens naturally in a demographic transition. As an economy becomes more developed, it’s common for fertility rates to decrease — but in China’s case, it has happened prematurely through policy. As a result, the country’s age distribution doesn’t really fit a typical profile.

India: A Workforce Peaking in 2050

Meanwhile, projections have India reaching a peak workforce age population near the year 2050:

India Demographic Profile by Age and Population

By the year 2050, it’s estimated that India’s workforce age population will be comparable in size to that of China’s today — over 800 million people strong.

However, given that this is at least 30 years in the future, it raises all kinds of questions around the economic relevance of a “working age” population in a landscape potentially dominated by technologies such as artificial intelligence and automation.

Different Paths

While it’s clear that the world’s two most populous countries have some key similarities, they are both on very different demographic paths at the moment.

China’s population has plateaued, and will eventually decline over the remainder of the 21st century. There is plenty of room to grow economically, but the weight of an aging population will create additional social and economic pressures. By 2050, it’s estimated that over one-third of the country will be 60 years or older.

On the other hand, India is following a more traditional demographic path, as long as it is uninterrupted by drastic policy decisions. The country will likely top out at 1.6-1.7 billion people, before it begins to experience the typical demographic transition already experienced by more developed economies in North America, Europe, and Japan.

And by the time the Indian workforce age group hits 800+ million people, it will be interesting to see how things interplay with the world’s inevitable technological shift to automation and a changing role for labor.

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Animated Chart: China’s Aging Population (1950-2100)

See why China is facing a demographic crisis in this animated chart.

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China’s Aging Population Problem

The one-child policy defined China’s demographic transition for over three decades.

But to combat an aging population and declining birthrates, the government scrapped the policy for a new two-child policy in 2016. Despite this massive change, China still faces a growing demographic crisis.

The above animated population pyramid from James Eagle looks at the distribution of China’s population by age group since 1950, with projections up to the year 2100.

How the One-Child Policy Created a Gender Imbalance

Until 2016, the Chinese government strictly enforced the one-child policy since 1979 with hefty fines for any breach of rules. According to the government, the policy reduced 400 million births over the years.

However, it also led to sex-selective abortions due to a deep-rooted cultural preference for boys. As a result, China’s gender balance tilted, with a sex ratio of 111 males to 100 females in the population aging from 0 to 4 years old in 2020.

Often termed “the missing women of China”, this shortage of women is expected to worsen over time. According to the U.N.’s World Population Prospects, China is projected to have around 244 million fewer women than men in 2050.

Additionally, the country faces another impending consequence of the one-child policy—a rapidly aging population.

Why China’s Population is Aging

In 2020, China’s fertility rate—the number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime—stood at 1.3.

Generally, fertility rates drop as economies develop. However, China’s fertility rate is now lower than that of the U.S. (1.64 in 2020) and on par with countries like Japan and Italy, both of which are facing aging populations. Consequently, fewer newborns are entering the population, while many in the workforce approach retirement.

Most Chinese workers retire by age 60. Here’s how China’s retirement-age population is expected to shape up by the year 2100:

Year60+ Population% of Total Population
198074,899,3857.5%
2000129,460,64810.0%
2021258,371,81017.9%
2050485,489,06634.6%
2070454,270,45836.1%
2100402,780,97237.8%

In 2021, people aged 60 and over made up nearly one-fifth of the Chinese population. As the country’s population begins declining around 2030, over 30% of all Chinese people are expected to be in this age group.

China’s aging population threatens long-term economic growth as its workforce shrinks and low fertility rates result in fewer newborns that would later enter the working-age population. Fewer working people means lower overall consumption, a higher burden on elderly care, and slowing economic growth.

So, how will China respond to the oncoming crisis?

The Three-child Policy

According to the 2020 national census, Chinese mothers gave birth to 12 million children in 2020—the lowest number of births since 1949.

In response to these results, the government passed a new law allowing each couple to have up to three children. Despite the change, the high cost of raising a child may deter couples from having a third child.

It remains to be seen how the three-child policy helps combat China’s demographic crisis and which other policies the government chooses to deploy.

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The Top 100 Companies of the World: The U.S. vs Everyone Else

Where are the top 100 companies of the world located? We highlight the U.S. share of the top companies by market capitalization .

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Top 100 Companies World vs US Shareable

The Top 100 Companies of the World: U.S. vs Everyone

When it comes to breaking down the top 100 companies of the world, the United States still commands the largest slice of the pie.

Throughout the 20th century and before globalization reached its current peaks, American companies made the country an economic powerhouse and the source of a majority of global market value.

But even as countries like China have made headway with multi-billion dollar companies of their own, and the market’s most important sectors have shifted, the U.S. has managed to stay on top.

How do the top 100 companies of the world stack up? This visualization pulls from PwC’s annual ranking of the world’s largest companies, using market capitalization data from May 2021.

Where are the World’s Largest Companies Located?

The world’s top 100 companies account for a massive $31.7 trillion in market cap, but that wealth is not distributed evenly.

Between companies, there’s a wide range of market caps. For example, the difference between the world’s largest company (Apple) and the 100th largest (Anheuser-Busch) is $1.9 trillion.

And between countries, that divide becomes even more stark. Of the 16 countries with companies making the top 100 ranking, the U.S. accounts for 65% of the total market cap value.

Location# of CompaniesMarket Capitalization (May 2021)
🇺🇸 United States59$20.55T
🇨🇳 China14$4.19T
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia1$1.92T
🇨🇭 Switzerland3$0.82T
🇳🇱 Netherlands3$0.58T
🇯🇵 Japan3$0.56T
🇫🇷 France2$0.55T
🇩🇪 Germany3$0.46T
🇰🇷 South Korea1$0.43T
🇬🇧 United Kingdom3$0.43T
🇮🇳 India2$0.34T
🇮🇪 Ireland2$0.34T
🇦🇺 Australia1$0.16T
🇩🇰 Denmark1$0.16T
🇨🇦 Canada1$0.13T
🇧🇪 Belgium1$0.13T

Compared to the U.S., other once-prominent markets like Japan, France, and the UK have seen their share of the world’s top 100 companies falter over the years. In fact, all of Europe accounts for just $3.46 trillion or 11% of the total market cap value of the list.

A major reason for the U.S. dominance in market values is a shift in important industries and contributors. Of the world’s top 100 companies, 52% were based in either technology or consumer discretionary, and the current largest players like Apple, Alphabet, Tesla, and Walmart are all American-based.

The Top 100 Companies of the World: Competition From China

The biggest and most impressive competitor to the U.S. is China.

With 14 companies of its own in the world’s top 100, China accounted for $4.19 trillion or 13% of the top 100’s total market cap value. That includes two of the top 10 firms by market cap, Tencent and Alibaba.

 CompanyCountrySectorMarket Cap (May 2021)
#1AppleUnited StatesTechnology$2,051B
#2Saudi AramcoSaudi ArabiaEnergy$1,920B
#3MicrosoftUnited StatesTechnology$1,778B
#4AmazonUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$1,558B
#5AlphabetUnited StatesTechnology$1,393B
#6FacebookUnited StatesTechnology$839B
#7TencentChinaTechnology$753B
#8TeslaUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$641B
#9AlibabaChinaConsumer Discretionary$615B
#10Berkshire HathwayUnited StatesFinancials$588B
#11TSMCChinaTechnology$534B
#12VisaUnited StatesIndustrials$468B
#13JPMorgan ChaseUnited StatesFinancials$465B
#14Johnson & JohnsonUnited StatesHealth Care$433B
#15Samsung ElectronicsSouth KoreaTechnology$431B
#16Kweichow MoutaiChinaConsumer Staples$385B
#17WalmartUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$383B
#18MastercardUnited StatesIndustrials$354B
#19UnitedHealth GroupUnited StatesHealth Care$352B
#20LVMH Moët HennessyFranceConsumer Discretionary$337B
#21Walt Disney CoUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$335B
#22Bank of AmericaUnited StatesFinancials$334B
#23Procter & GambleUnited StatesConsumer Staples$333B
#24NvidiaUnited StatesTechnology$331B
#25Home DepotUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$329B
#26Nestle SASwitzerlandConsumer Staples$322B
#27ICBCChinaFinancials$290B
#28Paypal HoldingsUnited StatesIndustrials$284B
#29Roche HoldingsSwitzerlandHealth Care$283B
#30Intel United StatesTechnology$261B
#31ASML Holding NVNetherlandsTechnology$255B
#32Toyota MotorJapanConsumer Discretionary$254B
#33ComcastUnited StatesTelecommunication$248B
#34Verizon CommunicationsUnited StatesTelecommunication$241B
#35Exxon MobilUnited StatesEnergy$236B
#36NetflixUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$231B
#37AdobeUnited StatesTechnology$228B
#38Coca-Cola Co United StatesConsumer Staples$227B
#39MeituanChinaTechnology$226B
#40Ping AnChinaFinancials$219B
#41Cisco SystemsUnited StatesTelecommunication$218B
#42AT&TUnited StatesFinancials$216B
#43L'OréalFranceConsumer Discretionary$215B
#44China Construction BankChinaFinancials$213B
#45Abbott LabsUnited StatesHealth Care$212B
#46Novartis AGSwitzerlandHealth Care$212B
#47NikeUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$209B
#48Oracle United StatesTechnology$202B
#49PfizerUnited StatesHealth Care$202B
#50ChevronUnited StatesOil & Gas$202B
#51China Merchants BankChinaFinancials$196B
#52PepsiCoUnited StatesConsumer Staples$195B
#53Salesforce.comUnited StatesTechnology$195B
#54Merck & CoUnited StatesHealth Care$195B
#55AbbVieUnited StatesHealth Care$191B
#56BroadcomUnited StatesTechnology$189B
#57Prosus NVNetherlandsTechnology$181B
#58Reliance IndustriesIndiaEnergy$180B
#59Thermo Fisher ScientificUnited StatesHealth Care$180B
#60Eli Lilly & CoUnited StatesHealth Care$179B
#61Agricultural Bank of ChinaChinaFinancials$178B
#62Softbank GroupJapanTelecommunication$176B
#63Accenture IrelandIndustrials$176B
#64Texas InstrumentsUnited StatesTechnology$174B
#65McDonaldsUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$167B
#66Volkswagen AGGermanyConsumer Discretionary$165B
#67BHP GroupAustraliaBasic Materials$163B
#68Wells Fargo & CoUnited StatesFinancials$162B
#69Tata Consultancy ServicesIndiaTechnology$161B
#70DanaherUnited StatesHealth Care$160B
#71Novo NordiskDenmarkHealth Care$160B
#72Medtronic IrelandHealth Care$159B
#73Wuliangye YibinChinaConsumer Staples$159B
#74Costco WholesaleUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$156B
#75T-Mobile USUnited StatesTelecommunication$156B
#76CitigroupUnited StatesFinancials$152B
#77HoneywellUnited StatesIndustrials$151B
#78QualcommUnited StatesTechnology$151B
#79SAP SEGermanyTechnology$151B
#80BoeingUnited StatesIndustrials$149B
#81Royal Dutch Shell NetherlandsOil & Gas$148B
#82NextEra EnergyUnited StatesUtilities$148B
#83United Parcel ServiceUnited StatesIndustrials$148B
#84Union PACUnited StatesIndustrials$148B
#85Unilever United KingdomConsumer Staples$147B
#86AIA ChinaFinancials$147B
#87LindeUnited KingdomBasic Materials$146B
#88AmgenUnited StatesHealth Care$144B
#89Bristol Myers SquibbUnited StatesHealth Care$141B
#90Siemens AGGermanyIndustrials$140B
#91Bank of ChinaChinaFinancials$139B
#92Philip MorrisUnited StatesConsumer Staples$138B
#93Lowe's CompaniesUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$136B
#94Charter CommunicationsUnited StatesTelecommunication$135B
#95China MobileChinaTelecommunication$134B
#96Sony GroupJapanConsumer Discretionary$132B
#97AstrazenecaUnited KingdomHealth Care$131B
#98Royal Bank of CanadaCanadaFinancials$131B
#99StarbucksUnited StatesConsumer Discretionary$129B
#100Anheuser-BuschBelgiumConsumer Staples$128B

Impressively, China’s rise in market value isn’t limited to well-known tech and consumer companies. The country’s second biggest contributing industry to the top 100 firms was finance, once also the most valuable sector in the U.S. (currently 4th behind tech, consumer discretionary, and health care).

Other notable countries on the list include Saudi Arabia and its state-owned oil and gas giant Saudi Aramco, which is the third largest company in the world. Despite only having one company in the top 100, Saudi Arabia had the third-largest share of the top 100’s total market cap value.

As Europe continues to lose ground year-over-year and the rest of Asia struggles to keep up, the top 100 companies might become increasingly concentrated in just the U.S. and China. The question is, will the imbalance of global market value start to even out, or become even bigger?

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