Mapping the World’s New Megacities in 2030
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
Rapid urbanization is one of the major forces shaping our global economic future.
A century ago, it was almost unfathomable that any person would want to live in a city with 10 million other people, but by the 1930s, New York City was the first metropolitan area to pass the mark. Fast forward to today, and there are 33 urban areas that meet the definition of a “megacity” spread throughout the globe.
It’s true that many of these megacities have been global centers for a long time – think cities like London, Tokyo, Los Angeles, and Paris – but we are now entering an era in which new megacities are cropping up every other year, including ones that have less familiar names and backstories.
The Megacity Landscape
Today’s chart is based on a forecast from Euromonitor International, outlining how the megacity landscape will shift in the coming years.
It focuses on the 39 megacities expected by the year 2030, when they will house 9% of the global population and contribute 15% of the world’s GDP. These same megacities will take up about 3% of global land mass.
New Megacities by 2030
Just over a decade from today, there will be five new megacities in developing countries, and one from a developed market:
The Windy City has been on the cusp of the megacity mark for some time, and it will finally hit 10 million inhabitants in the coming years. In 2030, it will have by far the biggest GDP of all new megacities, at $596 billion (constant 2017 prices).
The high-altitude Colombian capital will join the ranks of other Latin American megacities like Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Mexico City, Lima, and Buenos Aires. It will have a $109 billion economy (constant 2017 prices) by this time.
This is the entry to the list with the fastest-growing population. Between 2017-2030, the city will increase its residents by 60% – but it will still be nowhere as big as Cairo, which will be Africa’s biggest megacity at 29.8 million people.
This city, which is on the Bay of Bengal in eastern India, will be the most dense of all new megacities by 2030. Chennai’s economy, however, will be $50 billion (constant 2017 prices) – which is just 1/12 the size of Chicago’s.
Iraq’s biggest city already has close to 8 million inhabitants, but by 2030 it will get to the double digits thanks to its impressive population growth rate.
Dar es Salaam
The most populous city in Tanzania is growing almost as fast as Luanda – and on top of that, it has the fastest-growing (and smallest) GDP of the six new megacities. This isn’t the first time the city’s name has come up in a projection like this, as the Global Cities Institute sees it being the third most populous city in the world further down the line.
What other interesting things are projected to happen to key urban centers?
- Jakarta is anticipated to be the biggest megacity of all in 2030 with 35.6 million people
- Tokyo will fall from the top spot, as an aging population translates to negative population growth
- Osaka will be the oldest megacity with 31% of the population aged 65+
- Lagos will be the fastest-growing city overall in the 2017-2030 timeline
- Roughly a dozen cities will double their economies over this timeframe, led by Dhaka, Manila, and Bangalore
When it comes to global urbanization, the only constant is change – and massive metropolises that seem unfathomable today could be much more commonplace down the road.
Which Countries Have the Most Wealth Per Capita?
How do the rankings of the world’s most affluent countries change when using different metrics to measure wealth per capita?
Which Countries Have the Most Wealth Per Capita?
Our animated chart this week uses data from the ninth Credit Suisse Global Wealth report, which ranks countries by average wealth, calculated as gross assets per adult citizen.
While using such a metric certainly gives a quick snapshot of wealth per capita, it doesn’t necessarily show the complete picture.
Some argue, for example, that calculating the mean doesn’t factor in the gap between the richest and poorest in a population—also known as wealth inequality. For this reason, we’ve compared this number to median wealth for each country, providing a separate angle on which countries really have the most wealth per capita.
Mean or Median: Which Makes More Sense?
Below, we’ve visualized a hypothetical example of two groups of people, each earning various sums of money, to show how average (mean) and median calculations make a difference.
What can we observe in both datasets?
- Total wealth: $2,000
- Total people: 15 people
- Average wealth: $2,000 ÷ 15 = $133
However, that’s where the similarities end. In the first group, wealth is distributed more evenly, with the disparity between the lowest-paid and highest-paid being $300. The median wealth for this group reaches $100, which is close to the average value. In the second group, this gap climbs to $495, and the median wealth drops sharply to only $30.
Scaling up this example to the true wealth of nations, we can see how the median wealth provides a more accurate picture of the typical adult, especially in societies that are less equal.
Let’s see how this shakes out when ranking the world’s most affluent countries.
Ranking Top Contenders on Wealth per Capita
When it comes to wealth per capita, it’s clear that Australia and Switzerland lead the pack. In fact, the data shows that both nations top the lists for both mean and median wealth.
However, both nations also have the highest absolute household debt-to-GDP ratios in the world: in 2018, Switzerland’s levels reached nearly 129%, while Australia followed behind at 120%.
Here is a full ranking of the top 20 countries by mean and median wealth:
|Rank||Country||Mean wealth per adult||Country||Median wealth per adult|
|#1||🇨🇭 Switzerland||$530,244||🇦🇺 Australia||$191,453|
|#2||🇦🇺 Australia||$411,060||🇨🇭 Switzerland||$183,339|
|#3||🇺🇸 United States||$403,974||🇧🇪 Belgium||$163,429|
|#4||🇧🇪 Belgium||$313,045||🇳🇱 Netherlands||$114,935|
|#5||🇳🇴 Norway||$291,103||🇫🇷 France||$106,827|
|#6||🇳🇿 New Zealand||$289,798||🇨🇦 Canada||$106,342|
|#7||🇨🇦 Canada||$288,263||🇯🇵 Japan||$103,861|
|#8||🇩🇰 Denmark||$286,712||🇳🇿 New Zealand||$98,613|
|#9||🇸🇬 Singapore||$283,118||🇬🇧 United Kingdom||$97,169|
|#10||🇫🇷 France||$280,580||🇸🇬 Singapore||$91,656|
|#11||🇬🇧 United Kingdom||$279,048||🇪🇸 Spain||$87,188|
|#12||🇳🇱 Netherlands||$253,205||🇳🇴 Norway||$80,054|
|#13||🇸🇪 Sweden||$249,765||🇮🇹 Italy||$79,239|
|#14||🇭🇰 Hong Kong||$244,672||🇹🇼 Taiwan||$78,177|
|#15||🇮🇪 Ireland||$232,952||🇮🇪 Ireland||$72,473|
|#16||🇦🇹 Austria||$231,368||🇦🇹 Austria||$70,074|
|#17||🇯🇵 Japan||$227,235||🇰🇷 South Korea||$65,463|
|#18||🇮🇹 Italy||$217,727||🇺🇸 United States||$61,667|
|#19||🇩🇪 Germany||$214,893||🇩🇰 Denmark||$60,999|
|#20||🇹🇼 Taiwan||$212,375||🇭🇰 Hong Kong||$58,905|
The United States boasts 41% of the world’s millionaires, but it’s clear that the fruits of labor are enjoyed by only a select group—average wealth ($403,974) is almost seven times higher than median wealth ($61,667). This growing inequality gap knocks the country down to 18th place for median wealth.
The Nordic countries of Norway and Denmark can be found in the top ten for average wealth, but they drop to 12th place ($80,054) and 19th place ($60,999) respectively for median wealth. Despite this difference, these countries also provide a strong safety net—including access to healthcare and education—to more vulnerable citizens.
Finally, wealth in Japan is fairly evenly distributed among its large middle class, which lands it in seventh place on the median wealth list at $103,861. One possible reason is that the pay gap ratio between Japanese CEOs and the average worker is much lower than other developed nations.
With reducing income inequality as a priority for many countries around the world, how might this list change in coming years?
Footnote: All data estimates are using mid-2018 values, and reflected in US$.
Mapped: The World’s Oldest Democracies
This map shows the 25 oldest democracies in the world, based on how long current democratic governments have been in continuous power.
Mapped: The World’s Oldest Democracies
Which country today is the world’s oldest democracy?
It’s a loaded question — as you’ll see, there is plenty of nuance involved in the answer.
Depending on how you define things, there are many jurisdictions that can lay claim to this coveted title. Let’s dive into some of these technicalities, and then we can provide context for how we’ve defined democracy in today’s particular chart.
Laying the Claim
If you’re looking for the very first instance of democracy, credit is often attributed to Ancient Athens. It’s there the term originated, based on the Greek words demos (“common people”) and kratos (“strength”). In the 6th century BC, the city-state allowed all landowners to speak at the legislative assembly, blazing a path that would be followed by democracies in the future.
However, Ancient Athens wasn’t really a country in the modern sense. It’s also not around anymore, so that certainly disqualifies the oldest continuous democratic country today.
Iceland and the Isle of Man both have interesting claims to democracy. Each has a parliamentary body that is over 1,000 years old, making them the longest standing democratic institutions in the world. But Iceland only got its independence in 1944 from Denmark — and while it is self-governing, the Isle of Man is not a country.
Of course, when we’re talking about democracy today, we’re really talking about universal suffrage. New Zealand may have the best claim here — by 1893, the self-governing colony allowed all women and ethnicities to vote in elections.
A Common Set of Criteria
While many civilizations, institutions, and societies have a rightful claim to contributing to democracy (including many we did not mention above), measuring the world’s oldest democracies today requires following a common set of criteria.
In today’s chart, we used data from Boix, C., Miller, M., & Rosato, S. (2013, 2018), which looks at the age of democratic regimes for 219 countries since the year 1800. Countries are classified as democracies if they meet the following conditions:
The executive is directly or indirectly elected in popular elections and is responsible either directly to voters or to a legislature.
The legislature (or the executive if elected directly) is chosen in free and fair elections.
A majority of adult men has the right to vote.
Democracies also have to be continuous in order to count. Although France has important democratic origins, the country is currently on its fifth republic since the French Revolution, thanks to Napoleon, Vichy France, and other instances where things went sideways.
While the above criteria isn’t perfect, it does create a stable playing field to assess when countries adopted democratic systems in principle. (However, the exclusion of certain populations, notably women and specific ethnicities, in being given the right to vote, or to be elected to legislative assemblies, is another story).
The Oldest Democracies, by Number of Years
Using the above criteria, here is a list of the world’s 25 oldest democracies:
|Rank||Country||Age of Democracy (Years)|
|#1||🇺🇸 United States||219*|
|#3||🇳🇿 New Zealand||162|
|#5||🇬🇧 United Kingdom||134|
|#16||🇸🇲 San Marino||74|
|#21||🇨🇷 Costa Rica||70|
* The data goes back to 1800, so U.S. democracy can be considered at least 219 years old.
Using this specific criteria, there is only one country with continuous democracy for more than 200 years (The United States), and fourteen countries with democracies older than a century.
As you’ll notice in the data, many countries became democracies after World War II. The Japanese Empire, for example, was occupied by Allied Forces and then dissolved. It then regained sovereignty afterwards, emerging as a newly democratic regime.
Final notes: The data here goes back to 1800, and we have adjusted it to be current as of 2019. One change we made was to Tunisia, which is listed as the 24th oldest democracy in the data. Based on our due diligence on the subject, we felt it was appropriate to leave it off the list, given that most experts see the country as only achieving the status in 2014 in the post-Arab Spring era.
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