Visualizing the World Population in 2100, by Country
Connect with us

Demographics

The World Population in 2100, by Country

Published

on

Global Population Estimates 2100

Can I share this graphic?
Yes. Visualizations are free to share and post in their original form across the web—even for publishers. Please link back to this page and attribute Visual Capitalist.
When do I need a license?
Licenses are required for some commercial uses, translations, or layout modifications. You can even whitelabel our visualizations. Explore your options.
Interested in this piece?
Click here to license this visualization.

The World Population in 2100, by Country

In 2015, the United Nations predicted that the global population could surpass 11 billion by the end of the century.

Last year, the UN revised these estimates, but the numbers it came up with were still well above 10 billion. These regular projections from the UN have been the status quo—until now.

Plenty of signs have pointed to there being a population plateau, but recent research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), published in The Lancet, suggests that the number of people on this planet may actually start to shrink well before the year 2100.

Here’s a closer look at these complex projections.

UN vs. IHME Population Estimates

According to the UN, the world population is set to steadily rise over the years:

  • 2030: 8.5 billion
  • 2050: 9.7 billion
  • 2100: 10.9 billion

In contrast, IHME paints a different picture. It projects the population to actually peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. Following this trajectory, there could be 8.8 billion people in 2100, approximately 2 billion fewer than previously thought.

Various demographic factors are behind these differences—higher life expectancies, migration rates, and lower fertility rates. For this last factor, independent drivers including contraceptive access and higher educational attainment were also considered.

A shifting age structure is also a key aspect of this transition. By 2100, over a quarter of the world or nearly 2.37 billion will be aged 65 years and above.

The Most Populous Countries in 2100

Amid all these demographic sea changes, which countries will come out on top?

Despite an overall decline in numbers to 1.09 billion people in 2100, India moves up from second to first place on the population leaderboard.

RankCountryPopulation (2017)RankCountryPopulation (2100E)
#1🇨🇳 China1.4B#1🇮🇳 India1.09B
#2🇮🇳 India1.38B#2🇳🇬 Nigeria791M
#3🇺🇸 U.S.325M#3🇨🇳 China732M
#4🇮🇩 Indonesia258M#4🇺🇸 U.S.336M
#5🇵🇰 Pakistan214M#5🇵🇰 Pakistan248M
#6🇧🇷 Brazil212M#6🇨🇩 DR Congo246M
#7🇳🇬 Nigeria206M#7🇮🇩 Indonesia229M
#8🇧🇩 Bangladesh157M#8🇪🇹 Ethiopia223M
#9🇷🇺 Russia146M#9🇪🇬 Egypt199M
#10🇯🇵 Japan128M#10🇹🇿 Tanzania186M

The populations of both India and China will begin to contract after the mid-century—and it’s predicted that China’s total population will drop by almost half to 732 million by 2100.

Led by Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that will continue to see growth by century’s end. In fact, four of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of population count will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tightly Packed Together

One final thing to consider is how population density may look in 2100, with many more people clustered in the same areas. For example, Nigeria is dealing with a land area nearly 11 times smaller than the U.S.—but it will have more than double the population.

Country2100 Pop.Area (Millions, km²/mi²)Population Density per km² (mi²)
🇳🇬 Nigeria791M0.92M km² (0.36M mi²)856.3 (2217.7)
🇮🇳 India1.09B3.29M km² (1.27M mi²)331.6 (858.8)
🇵🇰 Pakistan248M0.88M km² (0.34M mi²)281.2 (728.3)
🇪🇹 Ethiopia223M1.10M km² (0.42M mi²)202.7 (531.0)
🇪🇬 Egypt199M1.01M km² (0.39M mi²)197.0 (510.1)
🇹🇿 Tanzania186M0.95M km² (0.37M mi²)196.3 (508.5)
🇮🇩 Indonesia229M1.90M km² (0.74M mi²)120.2 (311.4)
🇨🇩 DR Congo246M2.35M km² (0.91M mi²)104.9 (271.7)
🇨🇳 China732M9.60M km² (3.70M mi²)76.3 (197.8)
🇺🇸 U.S.336M9.83M km² (3.80M mi²)34.2 (88.5)

Regardless of how the future population count shakes out, it’s clear that these heavyweight countries will undergo significant transformation in the coming decades.

Click for Comments

Demographics

Charted: The World’s Working Poor, by Country (1991-2021)

This graphic shows the regional breakdown of the world’s working poor, and how this demographic has changed since 1995.

Published

on

Charting 3 decades of the world's working poor

Charting Three Decades of the World’s Working Poor

Poverty is often associated with unemployment—however, millions of working people around the world are living in what’s considered to be extreme poverty, or less than $1.90 per day.

Thankfully, the world’s population of poor workers has decreased substantially over the last few decades. But how exactly has it changed since 1991, and where is the majority of the working poor population living today?

This graphic by Gilbert Fontana uses data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) to show the regional breakdown of the world’s working poor, and how this demographic has changed in the last few decades.

From Asia to Africa

In 1991, about 808 million employed people were living in extreme poverty, or nearly 15% of the global population at the time.

As the graphic above shows, a majority of this population lived in Eastern Asia, most notably in China, which was the world’s most populous country until only very recently.

However, thanks to China’s economic reforms, and political reforms like the National “8-7” Poverty Reduction Plan, millions of people in the country were lifted out of poverty.

Today, Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the world’s highest concentration of working poor. Below, we’ll take a closer look at the region and zoom in on select countries.

Zooming in on Sub-Saharan Africa

As of 2021, 11 of the 49 countries that make up Sub-Saharan Africa had a working poverty rate that made up over half their population.

Here’s a look at these 11 countries, and the percentage of their working population that lives in extreme poverty:

RankCountryWorking Poverty Rate (% of total population)
1🇧🇮 Burundi79%
2🇲🇬 Madagascar76%
3🇨🇩 DR Condo69%
4🇲🇼 Malawi65%
5🇨🇫 Central African Republic63%
6🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau61%
7🇲🇿 Mozambique61%
8🇨🇬 Congo59%
9🇿🇲 Zambia56%
10🇦🇴 Angola52%
11🇱🇷 Liberia51%

Burundi is first on the list, with 79% of its working population living below the poverty line. One reason for this is the country’s struggling economy—Burundi has the lowest GDP per capita of any country in the world.

Because of the economic conditions in the country, many people struggle to meet their basic needs. For instance, it’s estimated that 40% of urban dwellers in Burundi don’t have access to safe drinking water.

But Burundi is not alone, with other countries like Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo also having more than two-thirds of their working population in extreme poverty. Which countries will be able to able to lift their people out of poverty next?

Continue Reading

Subscribe

Popular