Visualizing the World Population in 2100, by Country
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The World Population in 2100, by Country

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Global Population Estimates 2100

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The World Population in 2100, by Country

In 2015, the United Nations predicted that the global population could surpass 11 billion by the end of the century.

Last year, the UN revised these estimates, but the numbers it came up with were still well above 10 billion. These regular projections from the UN have been the status quo—until now.

Plenty of signs have pointed to there being a population plateau, but recent research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), published in The Lancet, suggests that the number of people on this planet may actually start to shrink well before the year 2100.

Here’s a closer look at these complex projections.

UN vs. IHME Population Estimates

According to the UN, the world population is set to steadily rise over the years:

  • 2030: 8.5 billion
  • 2050: 9.7 billion
  • 2100: 10.9 billion

In contrast, IHME paints a different picture. It projects the population to actually peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. Following this trajectory, there could be 8.8 billion people in 2100, approximately 2 billion fewer than previously thought.

Various demographic factors are behind these differences—higher life expectancies, migration rates, and lower fertility rates. For this last factor, independent drivers including contraceptive access and higher educational attainment were also considered.

A shifting age structure is also a key aspect of this transition. By 2100, over a quarter of the world or nearly 2.37 billion will be aged 65 years and above.

The Most Populous Countries in 2100

Amid all these demographic sea changes, which countries will come out on top?

Despite an overall decline in numbers to 1.09 billion people in 2100, India moves up from second to first place on the population leaderboard.

RankCountryPopulation (2017)RankCountryPopulation (2100E)
#1🇨🇳 China1.4B#1🇮🇳 India1.09B
#2🇮🇳 India1.38B#2🇳🇬 Nigeria791M
#3🇺🇸 U.S.325M#3🇨🇳 China732M
#4🇮🇩 Indonesia258M#4🇺🇸 U.S.336M
#5🇵🇰 Pakistan214M#5🇵🇰 Pakistan248M
#6🇧🇷 Brazil212M#6🇨🇩 DR Congo246M
#7🇳🇬 Nigeria206M#7🇮🇩 Indonesia229M
#8🇧🇩 Bangladesh157M#8🇪🇹 Ethiopia223M
#9🇷🇺 Russia146M#9🇪🇬 Egypt199M
#10🇯🇵 Japan128M#10🇹🇿 Tanzania186M

The populations of both India and China will begin to contract after the mid-century—and it’s predicted that China’s total population will drop by almost half to 732 million by 2100.

Led by Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that will continue to see growth by century’s end. In fact, four of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of population count will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tightly Packed Together

One final thing to consider is how population density may look in 2100, with many more people clustered in the same areas. For example, Nigeria is dealing with a land area nearly 11 times smaller than the U.S.—but it will have more than double the population.

Country2100 Pop.Area (Millions, km²/mi²)Population Density per km² (mi²)
🇳🇬 Nigeria791M0.92M km² (0.36M mi²)856.3 (2217.7)
🇮🇳 India1.09B3.29M km² (1.27M mi²)331.6 (858.8)
🇵🇰 Pakistan248M0.88M km² (0.34M mi²)281.2 (728.3)
🇪🇹 Ethiopia223M1.10M km² (0.42M mi²)202.7 (531.0)
🇪🇬 Egypt199M1.01M km² (0.39M mi²)197.0 (510.1)
🇹🇿 Tanzania186M0.95M km² (0.37M mi²)196.3 (508.5)
🇮🇩 Indonesia229M1.90M km² (0.74M mi²)120.2 (311.4)
🇨🇩 DR Congo246M2.35M km² (0.91M mi²)104.9 (271.7)
🇨🇳 China732M9.60M km² (3.70M mi²)76.3 (197.8)
🇺🇸 U.S.336M9.83M km² (3.80M mi²)34.2 (88.5)

Regardless of how the future population count shakes out, it’s clear that these heavyweight countries will undergo significant transformation in the coming decades.

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Demographics

Animation: The Global Population Over 300 Years, by Country

This animated video shows how much the population has grown over the last three centuries, and which regions have driven this growth.

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Animation: The Global Population Over 300 Years, by Country

Since the 1800s, our global population has grown from 984 million people to almost 8 billion—an increase of more than 700%.

Which regions around the world have led this growth, and what’s expected for the rest of the century? This animated visualization by James Eagle shows 300 years of population growth, including historical figures as well as projections up to the year 2100.

Asia’s Current Dominance

For centuries, more than half of the world’s population has been concentrated in Asia. At certain points throughout history, the region has made up nearly 70% of the world’s population.

Here’s a look at 2021 figures, and how large each region’s population is relative to each other:

RankRegion% of Global Population (2021)
1Asia59.2%
2Africa17.9%
3Europe9.3%
4North America7.5%
5South America5.5%
6Oceania0.6%

China and India have been Asia’s largest population hubs, with China historically leading the front. In the 1950s China’s population was nearly double the size of India’s, but the gap has fluctuated over the years.

As China’s population growth continued, it was causing problems for the country as it struggled to scale up food production and infrastructure. By 1979, the Chinese government rolled out a one-child policy in an attempt to control the situation.

The program, which ended in 2016, had a number of unintended ramifications, but ultimately, it did succeed in slowing down the country’s population growth. And now, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country as early as 2023.

Africa’s Growing Piece of the Pie

Although Asia dominates the charts when it comes to overall population numbers currently, Africa’s growing population numbers are often overlooked.

While the continent’s total population is smaller than Asia’s, it will soon be home to the world’s largest working-age population, which could have a significant impact on the global economy in the years ahead.

This growth is being led by Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. With megacities like Lagos (metro population: 21 million) and over 217 million inhabitants in total, Nigeria is projected to be the world’s third most populous country by the year 2050. Nigeria’s rapid growth is largely thanks to its high birth rate, which is nearly double the global average.

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Charted: The Working Hours of Americans at Different Income Levels

This graphic shows the average working hours between higher and lower-income groups in America, based on income percentile.

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Average working hours in America

The Actual Working Hours of Different Income Levels

Do you really need to work 100-hour weeks for success?

In 2021, America’s top 10% of income earners made at least $129,181 a year—more than double the average individual income across the country.

When looking at differences between income groups, there are many preconceived notions about the work involved. But what are the actual average working hours for different income groups?

This graphic by Ruben Berge Mathisen uses the latest U.S. Census data to show the average working hours of Americans at different income levels.

Comparing Average Work Weeks

The data used for this graphic comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s May 2022 Current Population Survey, which surveys more than 8,000 Americans from various socioeconomic backgrounds.

Importantly, the data reflects the average work hours that respondents in each income percentile “actually” work each week, and not what’s on their contract. This also includes overtime, other jobs, or side gigs.

According to the survey data, America’s top 10% income percentile works 4.4 hours more each week than those in the bottom 10%. And in surveys across other countries, though with hundreds of respondents instead of thousands, the discrepancy was similar:

While both income and wealth gaps are generally widening globally, it’s interesting to see that higher earners aren’t necessarily working more hours to achieve their increasingly larger salaries.

In fact, the top 10% in the 27 countries shown in the graphic are actually working around 1 hour less each week than the bottom 10%, at least among full-time workers.

Zooming Out: Average Working Hours per Country

Similarities arise when comparing average working hours across different countries. For starters, people living in poorer countries typically work longer hours.

According to Our World in Data, the average worker in Cambodia works about 9.4 hours a day, while in Switzerland, people work an average of 6 hours a day.

While many factors contribute to this discrepancy in working hours, one large factor cited is tech innovation, or things like physical machines, processes, and systems that make work more efficient and productive. This allows wealthier countries (and industries) to increase their output without putting in as many hours.

For example, from 1948 to 2011, farm production per hour in the U.S. became 16x more productive, thanks to innovations like improved machinery, better fertilizers, and more efficient land management systems.

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