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The World Population in 2100, by Country

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Global Population Estimates 2100

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The World Population in 2100, by Country

In 2015, the United Nations predicted that the global population could surpass 11 billion by the end of the century.

Last year, the UN revised these estimates, but the numbers it came up with were still well above 10 billion. These regular projections from the UN have been the status quo—until now.

Plenty of signs have pointed to there being a population plateau, but recent research from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), published in The Lancet, suggests that the number of people on this planet may actually start to shrink well before the year 2100.

Here’s a closer look at these complex projections.

UN vs. IHME Population Estimates

According to the UN, the world population is set to steadily rise over the years:

  • 2030: 8.5 billion
  • 2050: 9.7 billion
  • 2100: 10.9 billion

In contrast, IHME paints a different picture. It projects the population to actually peak at 9.7 billion in 2064. Following this trajectory, there could be 8.8 billion people in 2100, approximately 2 billion fewer than previously thought.

Various demographic factors are behind these differences—higher life expectancies, migration rates, and lower fertility rates. For this last factor, independent drivers including contraceptive access and higher educational attainment were also considered.

A shifting age structure is also a key aspect of this transition. By 2100, over a quarter of the world or nearly 2.37 billion will be aged 65 years and above.

The Most Populous Countries in 2100

Amid all these demographic sea changes, which countries will come out on top?

Despite an overall decline in numbers to 1.09 billion people in 2100, India moves up from second to first place on the population leaderboard.

RankCountryPopulation (2017)RankCountryPopulation (2100E)
#1🇨🇳 China1.4B#1🇮🇳 India1.09B
#2🇮🇳 India1.38B#2🇳🇬 Nigeria791M
#3🇺🇸 U.S.325M#3🇨🇳 China732M
#4🇮🇩 Indonesia258M#4🇺🇸 U.S.336M
#5🇵🇰 Pakistan214M#5🇵🇰 Pakistan248M
#6🇧🇷 Brazil212M#6🇨🇩 DR Congo246M
#7🇳🇬 Nigeria206M#7🇮🇩 Indonesia229M
#8🇧🇩 Bangladesh157M#8🇪🇹 Ethiopia223M
#9🇷🇺 Russia146M#9🇪🇬 Egypt199M
#10🇯🇵 Japan128M#10🇹🇿 Tanzania186M

The populations of both India and China will begin to contract after the mid-century—and it’s predicted that China’s total population will drop by almost half to 732 million by 2100.

Led by Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region that will continue to see growth by century’s end. In fact, four of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of population count will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tightly Packed Together

One final thing to consider is how population density may look in 2100, with many more people clustered in the same areas. For example, Nigeria is dealing with a land area nearly 11 times smaller than the U.S.—but it will have more than double the population.

Country2100 Pop.Area (Millions, km²/mi²)Population Density per km² (mi²)
🇳🇬 Nigeria791M0.92M km² (0.36M mi²)856.3 (2217.7)
🇮🇳 India1.09B3.29M km² (1.27M mi²)331.6 (858.8)
🇵🇰 Pakistan248M0.88M km² (0.34M mi²)281.2 (728.3)
🇪🇹 Ethiopia223M1.10M km² (0.42M mi²)202.7 (531.0)
🇪🇬 Egypt199M1.01M km² (0.39M mi²)197.0 (510.1)
🇹🇿 Tanzania186M0.95M km² (0.37M mi²)196.3 (508.5)
🇮🇩 Indonesia229M1.90M km² (0.74M mi²)120.2 (311.4)
🇨🇩 DR Congo246M2.35M km² (0.91M mi²)104.9 (271.7)
🇨🇳 China732M9.60M km² (3.70M mi²)76.3 (197.8)
🇺🇸 U.S.336M9.83M km² (3.80M mi²)34.2 (88.5)

Regardless of how the future population count shakes out, it’s clear that these heavyweight countries will undergo significant transformation in the coming decades.

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Countries

Charted: The World’s Aging Population from 1950 to 2100

This graphic visualizes the world’s aging population, showing data for every country and territory around the world.

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Charted: The World’s Aging Population from 1950 to 2100

As demographics continue to shift in the 21st century, the world’s aging population will continue to be a focal point for many global decision makers.

Most countries around the world have experienced population explosions, or are about to. Combine this with declining birth rates and falling mortality rates, and it’s clear that the global senior population will continue to reach new heights.

These graphics by Pablo Alvarez use data from the 2022 UN World Population Prospects to visualize this increasing aging population across countries.

The World’s Aging Population from 1950 to 2100

In 2022, there were 771 million people aged 65+ years globally, accounting for almost 10% of the world’s population.

This segment has been growing at an increasing rate, and it’s expected to hit 16% in 2050, and eventually 24% by 2100. Here’s what that’s projected to look like, for every country and territory.

Country by Population Aged +65 Years195020222100
🇦🇫 Afghanistan2.85%2.39%16.03%
🇦🇱 Albania6.04%16.66%49.08%
🇩🇿 Algeria3.49%6.39%28.83%
🇦🇸 American Samoa2.38%7.27%45.41%
🇦🇩 Andorra10.02%14.98%37.04%
🇦🇴 Angola2.93%2.6%12.07%
🇦🇮 Anguilla3.69%10.71%37.49%
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda4.14%10.63%35.4%
🇦🇷 Argentina4.13%11.92%31.79%
🇦🇲 Armenia8.17%13.15%36.13%
🇦🇼 Aruba1.77%16.15%36.51%
🇦🇺 Australia8.17%16.9%31.38%
🇦🇹 Austria10.42%19.81%33.93%
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan6.89%7.11%30.5%
🇧🇸 Bahamas4.76%8.89%29.58%
🇧🇭 Bahrain2.88%3.76%21.89%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh3.9%6.04%32.56%
🇧🇧 Barbados5.24%16.28%33.19%
🇧🇾 Belarus8.24%17.18%30.45%
🇧🇪 Belgium11.03%19.73%32.83%
🇧🇿 Belize3.57%5.09%29.21%
🇧🇯 Benin7.85%3.06%11.03%
🇧🇲 Bermuda5.71%20.41%37.73%
🇧🇹 Bhutan2.53%6.25%33.35%
🇧🇴 Bolivia6.11%4.85%21.75%
🇧🇶 Bonaire Sint Eustatius and Saba14.22%13.84%28.94%
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina3.95%18.4%36.4%
🇧🇼 Botswana4.32%3.65%17.96%
🇧🇷 Brazil2.39%9.88%33.52%
🇻🇬 British Virgin Islands8.63%9.95%32.47%
🇧🇳 Brunei4.85%6.17%30.93%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria6.66%22.38%37.13%
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso2.01%2.53%13.07%
🇧🇮 Burundi3.22%2.48%13.23%
🇰🇭 Cambodia2.67%5.81%26.43%
🇨🇲 Cameroon3.47%2.67%11.89%
🇨🇦 Canada7.7%19.03%31.55%
🇨🇻 Cape Verde3.67%5.55%32.63%
🇰🇾 Cayman Islands6.05%8.17%28.75%
🇨🇫 Central African Republic5.%2.51%11.43%
🇹🇩 Chad4.33%2.01%9.64%
🇨🇱 Chile3.3%13.03%36.61%
🇨🇳 China5.04%13.72%40.93%
🇨🇴 Colombia3.22%9.%34.49%
🇰🇲 Comoros3.8%4.28%17.81%
🇨🇬 Congo3.36%2.72%11.99%
🇨🇰 Cook Islands2.94%11.73%29.75%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica2.97%10.83%36.99%
🇨🇮 Cote d'Ivoire2.21%2.4%10.86%
🇭🇷 Croatia7.82%22.36%37.03%
🇨🇺 Cuba4.36%15.81%36.31%
🇨🇼 Curacao5.82%14.95%30.46%
🇨🇾 Cyprus5.95%14.83%33.36%
🇨🇿 Czechia8.29%20.64%26.94%
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of Congo3.77%2.92%10.62%
🇩🇰 Denmark9.04%20.49%30.45%
🇩🇯 Djibouti1.99%4.54%19.68%
🇩🇲 Dominica7.67%9.53%34.28%
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic2.72%7.4%30.47%
🇪🇨 Ecuador5.2%7.83%31.97%
🇪🇬 Egypt2.95%4.83%21.77%
🇸🇻 El Salvador3.93%8.22%36.02%
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea5.53%3.12%15.13%
🇪🇷 Eritrea3.2%4.01%19.86%
🇪🇪 Estonia10.56%20.58%34.15%
🇸🇿 Eswatini2.68%4.%16.26%
🇪🇹 Ethiopia3.01%3.14%18.6%
🇫🇴 Faeroe Islands7.59%17.92%26.91%
🇫🇰 Falkland Islands8.27%11.08%35.86%
🇫🇯 Fiji5.99%5.9%20.6%
🇫🇮 Finland6.63%23.27%34.04%
🇫🇷 France11.39%21.66%34.23%
🇬🇫 French Guiana7.96%5.98%21.13%
🇵🇫 French Polynesia3.%10.07%37.85%
🇬🇦 Gabon7.21%3.89%16.25%
🇬🇲 Gambia2.5%2.43%16.06%
🇬🇪 Georgia9.35%14.61%31.19%
🇩🇪 Germany9.46%22.41%33.72%
🇬🇭 Ghana4.62%3.55%15.91%
🇬🇮 Gibraltar6.94%20.84%37.63%
🇬🇷 Greece6.8%22.82%37.52%
🇬🇱 Greenland3.06%10.02%29.16%
🇬🇩 Grenada5.12%10.07%30.54%
🇬🇵 Guadeloupe5.51%20.04%34.45%
🇬🇺 Guam1.11%11.84%31.19%
🇬🇹 Guatemala2.31%4.91%28.05%
🇬🇬 Guernsey11.96%16.64%35.4%
🇬🇳 Guinea5.39%3.32%14.%
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau3.45%2.82%14.34%
🇬🇾 Guyana3.89%6.28%28.94%
🇭🇹 Haiti3.64%4.54%19.07%
🇭🇳 Honduras3.96%4.27%26.5%
🇭🇰 Hong Kong2.48%20.47%41.64%
🇭🇺 Hungary7.81%20.01%31.85%
🇮🇸 Iceland7.52%15.33%34.25%
🇮🇳 India3.1%6.9%29.81%
🇮🇩 Indonesia1.74%6.86%25.28%
🇮🇷 Iran5.22%7.62%33.72%
🇮🇶 Iraq2.79%3.41%18.44%
🇮🇪 Ireland10.99%15.14%32.48%
🇮🇲 Isle of Man13.9%22.29%31.8%
🇮🇱 Israel4.%12.04%25.97%
🇮🇹 Italy8.09%24.05%38.19%
🇯🇲 Jamaica3.83%7.45%44.05%
🇯🇵 Japan4.89%29.92%38.7%
🇯🇪 Jersey12.34%16.22%30.52%
🇯🇴 Jordan5.03%3.84%27.3%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan6.47%8.04%19.58%
🇰🇪 Kenya5.28%2.87%16.98%
🇰🇮 Kiribati7.13%3.81%17.33%
🇽🇰 Kosovo5.33%10.19%43.35%
🇰🇼 Kuwait2.88%4.93%31.56%
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan7.91%4.54%21.08%
🇱🇦 Laos2.13%4.45%25.24%
🇱🇻 Latvia10.12%21.86%32.86%
🇱🇧 Lebanon7.24%9.89%32.11%
🇱🇸 Lesotho6.34%4.2%13.44%
🇱🇷 Liberia2.97%3.31%13.88%
🇱🇾 Libya5.21%4.86%27.77%
🇱🇮 Liechtenstein7.89%19.37%34.79%
🇱🇹 Lithuania8.65%20.8%32.79%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg9.71%15.03%31.55%
🇲🇴 Macao3.11%13.%32.39%
🇲🇬 Madagascar3.25%3.35%16.21%
🇲🇼 Malawi3.06%2.61%15.61%
🇲🇾 Malaysia4.91%7.5%30.78%
🇲🇻 Maldives3.14%4.78%35.61%
🇲🇱 Mali2.78%2.38%11.%
🇲🇹 Malta7.42%19.13%38.26%
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands5.68%4.56%17.8%
🇲🇶 Martinique5.85%22.77%37.31%
🇲🇷 Mauritania1.44%3.22%15.03%
🇲🇺 Mauritius3.18%12.79%33.76%
🇾🇹 Mayotte6.61%2.88%18.15%
🇲🇽 Mexico2.99%8.32%34.88%
🇫🇲 Micronesia (country)4.11%6.16%27.59%
🇲🇩 Moldova7.56%12.98%26.36%
🇲🇨 Monaco15.64%35.92%30.16%
🇲🇳 Mongolia3.87%4.61%26.18%
🇲🇪 Montenegro7.85%16.55%34.16%
🇲🇸 Montserrat7.92%17.7%33.05%
🇲🇦 Morocco2.86%7.72%29.97%
🇲🇿 Mozambique3.13%2.57%13.43%
🇲🇲 Myanmar3.21%6.82%23.69%
🇳🇦 Namibia4.1%3.97%15.38%
🇳🇷 Nauru8.98%2.5%15.87%
🇳🇵 Nepal2.74%6.09%29.51%
🇳🇱 Netherlands7.76%20.31%32.89%
🇳🇨 New Caledonia5.%11.02%31.61%
🇳🇿 New Zealand9.09%16.31%33.2%
🇳🇮 Nicaragua2.71%5.29%28.92%
🇳🇪 Niger.92%2.4%9.76%
🇳🇬 Nigeria3.%2.97%12.31%
🇳🇺 Niue4.79%15.16%22.55%
🇰🇵 North Korea2.72%11.71%30.49%
🇲🇰 North Macedonia5.87%14.91%36.56%
🇲🇵 Northern Mariana Islands2.95%10.81%32.09%
🇳🇴 Norway9.52%18.44%31.65%
🇴🇲 Oman3.05%2.76%23.96%
🇵🇰 Pakistan5.48%4.27%17.23%
🇵🇼 Palau8.59%9.93%21.48%
🇵🇸 Palestine4.77%3.53%23.44%
🇵🇦 Panama3.57%8.77%30.03%
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea1.09%3.19%16.81%
🇵🇾 Paraguay3.73%6.26%26.51%
🇵🇪 Peru3.43%8.41%30.33%
🇵🇭 Philippines3.56%5.44%23.38%
🇵🇱 Poland5.22%18.55%35.69%
🇵🇹 Portugal7.%22.9%36.28%
🇵🇷 Puerto Rico3.63%22.93%48.9%
🇶🇦 Qatar3.5%1.52%15.01%
🇷🇪 Reunion3.81%13.28%32.4%
🇷🇴 Romania7.16%18.64%32.22%
🇷🇺 Russia4.8%15.8%27.86%
🇷🇼 Rwanda2.76%3.2%17.36%
🇧🇱 Saint Barthlemy7.3%10.61%43.89%
🇸🇭 Saint Helena8.63%28.66%32.61%
🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis5.36%10.13%29.79%
🇱🇨 Saint Lucia3.59%9.23%33.39%
🇲🇫 Saint Martin (French part)4.47%11.14%30.08%
🇵🇲 Saint Pierre and Miquelon6.34%17.32%33.4%
🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines7.71%10.86%32.34%
🇼🇸 Samoa2.52%5.22%18.75%
🇸🇲 San Marino10.15%20.47%35.73%
🇸🇹 Sao Tome and Principe3.92%3.76%15.6%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia3.32%2.81%30.28%
🇸🇳 Senegal3.42%3.14%16.54%
🇷🇸 Serbia6.15%20.56%37.55%
🇸🇨 Seychelles10.68%8.16%28.84%
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone3.02%3.14%15.52%
🇸🇬 Singapore2.29%15.12%36.51%
🇸🇽 Sint Maarten (Dutch part)12.03%10.57%34.51%
🇸🇰 Slovakia6.63%16.98%33.4%
🇸🇮 Slovenia7.52%20.96%33.59%
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands4.03%3.47%15.29%
🇸🇴 Somalia2.6%2.57%10.75%
🇿🇦 South Africa4.06%5.89%20.55%
🇰🇷 South Korea2.74%17.49%44.44%
🇸🇸 South Sudan3.48%2.89%13.11%
🇪🇸 Spain7.23%20.27%38.72%
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka8.76%11.54%35.73%
🇸🇩 Sudan3.03%3.5%13.28%
🇸🇷 Suriname4.09%7.39%25.8%
🇸🇪 Sweden10.19%20.25%31.83%
🇨🇭 Switzerland9.49%19.31%32.61%
🇸🇾 Syria7.66%4.68%24.62%
🇹🇼 Taiwan2.11%16.71%37.32%
🇹🇯 Tajikistan4.34%3.47%19.43%
🇹🇿 Tanzania2.2%3.1%14.97%
🇹🇭 Thailand3.21%15.21%39.17%
🇹🇱 Timor3.14%5.21%25.42%
🇹🇬 Togo4.29%3.13%11.77%
🇹🇰 Tokelau4.7%8.66%25.03%
🇹🇴 Tonga4.6%6.22%21.65%
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago3.93%11.52%32.67%
🇹🇳 Tunisia4.4%9.02%31.24%
🇹🇷 Turkey3.77%8.64%33.9%
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan5.84%5.15%21.55%
🇹🇨 Turks and Caicos Islands5.79%10.34%28.25%
🇹🇻 Tuvalu4.98%6.48%16.15%
🇺🇬 Uganda2.87%1.69%14.33%
🇺🇦 Ukraine7.54%18.81%33.2%
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates3.35%1.83%15.77%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom10.84%19.17%32.56%
🇺🇸 United States8.18%17.13%30.47%
🇻🇮 United States Virgin Islands7.54%20.42%39.11%
🇺🇾 Uruguay8.23%15.58%35.98%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan5.87%5.14%22.24%
🇻🇺 Vanuatu5.65%3.74%16.29%
🇻🇪 Venezuela2.29%8.61%27.71%
🇻🇳 Vietnam4.13%9.12%30.02%
🇼🇫 Wallis and Futuna1.76%13.47%32.98%
🇪🇭 Western Sahara2.82%5.84%23.73%
🇾🇪 Yemen3.98%2.66%18.25%
🇿🇲 Zambia2.76%1.75%12.66%
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe3.18%3.32%14.22%
🌐 World5.13%9.82%24.03%

Some of the places with high elderly shares today include high-income countries like Japan (30%), Italy (24%), and Finland (23%).

The lowest shares are concentrated in the Middle East and Africa. Many countries have just 2% of their population aged 65 years and older, such as Qatar, Uganda, and Afghanistan.

But over time, almost all countries are expected to see their older population segments grow. In just three decades, it is estimated that one-in-four European, North American, and Asian residents will be over 65 years of age.

By 2100, a variety of Asian countries and island nations facing low population growth are expected to see more than one-third of their populations aged 65 years or older, including South Korea and Jamaica at 44%. However, it’s actually Albania that’s the biggest outlier overall, with a projected 49% of its population to be aged 65 and older by 2100.

Passing the Generational Torch

The challenge of an aging population is set to impact all sectors of society, including labor and financial markets, demand for housing and transportation, and especially family structures and intergenerational ties.

One way to help grasp the nature of transition is to note the changing ratio between seniors and young children in the world population, as seen in the below crossover diagram:

Elderly population surpass that of children aged 5 and below

Dropping fertility rates, in addition to improved child and infant mortality rates, are known to have played a major role in the plateauing population of children.

However, not all countries have witnessed this crossover yet, as it usually coincides with higher levels of economic development.

As countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa reach higher levels of per capita income, they will be likely to follow down the paths of more advanced economies, eventually experiencing similar demographic fates and challenges.

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