Central Banks
The Petrostate Hex: How Plunging Oil Prices Affect Currencies
The Petrostate Hex: How Plunging Oil Prices Affect Currencies
Every day, the world consumes 93 million barrels of oil, which is worth $4.2 billion.
Oil is one of the world’s most basic necessities. At least for now, all modern countries rely on oil and its derivatives as the backbone of their economies. However, the price of oil can have significant swings. These changes in price can have profound implications depending on whether an economy is a net importer or net exporter of crude.
Net exporters, countries that sell more oil abroad than they bring in, feel the sting when prices plunge. Less revenue gets generated, and this can impact everything from balancing the budget to the value of their currency in the world market.
Net importers, on the other hand, benefit from lower prices as it decreases input costs for production. For example, a country like Japan only meets 15% of its energy needs domestically, and must import 3.5 million barrels of oil each day. A lower oil price significantly decreases these costs.
Currency Swings
For many major net exporters of oil, changes in oil prices are highly correlated with their currencies. With oil prices crashing over the last year, currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Russian ruble have been highly impacted in terms of USD.
For example, the ruble is down over 40% since the price of oil began to crash in 2014. With a breakeven cost of $105/bbl, the dropping price of crude as well as dwindling ruble have sent ripples through the Russian economy.
Central Bank Policy
The impact of oil on currency depends on how central banks approach policy:
Floating exchange rate: The exchange rate is determined by supply and demand.
Fixed exchange rate: Countries with fixed exchange rates continuously arrange intervention to keep the rate the same.
Managed float: The central bank occasionally intervenes to “smooth out” the exchange rate.
Currency Correlations
The price of oil typically has the largest effect on countries with floating exchange rates such as Canada, Norway, or Mexico. Over the last 15 years, the loonie (-0.42), krone (-0.46), and peso (-0.31) have all had large negative correlations in exchange rates (paired with USD) against the price of oil.
Meanwhile, countries that have pegged their rate tend to feel the impact of oil price swings elsewhere in their economy. This is because such countries have to buy or sell currencies on the open market to maintain the currency peg. Another method that can be used is to enforce a particular exchange rate by making it illegal to trade currencies at other rates, but this can often create a black market.
As a result, countries with fixed-rate policies such as Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have little to no correlation in their exchange rates (paired with USD) against the price of oil.
Economy
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve
Public trust in the Federal Reserve chair has hit its lowest point in 20 years. Get the details in this infographic.

The Briefing
- Gallup conducts an annual poll to gauge the U.S. public’s trust in the Federal Reserve
- After rising during the COVID-19 pandemic, public trust has fallen to a 20-year low
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve
Each year, Gallup conducts a survey of American adults on various economic topics, including the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve.
More specifically, respondents are asked how much confidence they have in the current Fed chairman to do or recommend the right thing for the U.S. economy. We’ve visualized these results from 2001 to 2023 to see how confidence levels have changed over time.
Methodology and Results
The data used in this infographic is also listed in the table below. Percentages reflect the share of respondents that have either a “great deal” or “fair amount” of confidence.
Year | Fed chair | % Great deal or Fair amount |
---|---|---|
2023 | Jerome Powell | 36% |
2022 | Jerome Powell | 43% |
2021 | Jerome Powell | 55% |
2020 | Jerome Powell | 58% |
2019 | Jerome Powell | 50% |
2018 | Jerome Powell | 45% |
2017 | Janet Yellen | 45% |
2016 | Janet Yellen | 38% |
2015 | Janet Yellen | 42% |
2014 | Janet Yellen | 37% |
2013 | Ben Bernanke | 42% |
2012 | Ben Bernanke | 39% |
2011 | Ben Bernanke | 41% |
2010 | Ben Bernanke | 44% |
2009 | Ben Bernanke | 49% |
2008 | Ben Bernanke | 47% |
2007 | Ben Bernanke | 50% |
2006 | Ben Bernanke | 41% |
2005 | Alan Greenspan | 56% |
2004 | Alan Greenspan | 61% |
2003 | Alan Greenspan | 65% |
2002 | Alan Greenspan | 69% |
2001 | Alan Greenspan | 74% |
Data for 2023 collected April 3-25, with this statement put to respondents: “Please tell me how much confidence you have [in the Fed chair] to recommend the right thing for the economy.”
We can see that trust in the Federal Reserve has fluctuated significantly in recent years.
For example, under Alan Greenspan, trust was initially high due to the relative stability of the economy. The burst of the dotcom bubble—which some attribute to Greenspan’s easy credit policies—resulted in a sharp decline.
On the flip side, public confidence spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was likely due to Jerome Powell’s decisive actions to provide support to the U.S. economy throughout the crisis.
Measures implemented by the Fed include bringing interest rates to near zero, quantitative easing (buying government bonds with newly-printed money), and emergency lending programs to businesses.
Confidence Now on the Decline
After peaking at 58%, those with a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the Fed chair have tumbled to 36%, the lowest number in 20 years.
This is likely due to Powell’s hard stance on fighting post-pandemic inflation, which has involved raising interest rates at an incredible speed. While these rate hikes may be necessary, they also have many adverse effects:
- Negative impact on the stock market
- Increases the burden for those with variable-rate debts
- Makes mortgages and home buying less affordable
Higher rates have also prompted many U.S. tech companies to shrink their workforces, and have been a factor in the regional banking crisis, including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Where does this data come from?
Source: Gallup (2023)
Data Notes: Results are based on telephone interviews conducted April 3-25, 2023, with a random sample of –1,013—adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. See source for details.
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