Energy
The Petrostate Hex: How Plunging Oil Prices Affect Currencies
The Petrostate Hex: How Plunging Oil Prices Affect Currencies
Every day, the world consumes 93 million barrels of oil, which is worth $4.2 billion.
Oil is one of the world’s most basic necessities. At least for now, all modern countries rely on oil and its derivatives as the backbone of their economies. However, the price of oil can have significant swings. These changes in price can have profound implications depending on whether an economy is a net importer or net exporter of crude.
Net exporters, countries that sell more oil abroad than they bring in, feel the sting when prices plunge. Less revenue gets generated, and this can impact everything from balancing the budget to the value of their currency in the world market.
Net importers, on the other hand, benefit from lower prices as it decreases input costs for production. For example, a country like Japan only meets 15% of its energy needs domestically, and must import 3.5 million barrels of oil each day. A lower oil price significantly decreases these costs.
Currency Swings
For many major net exporters of oil, changes in oil prices are highly correlated with their currencies. With oil prices crashing over the last year, currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Russian ruble have been highly impacted in terms of USD.
For example, the ruble is down over 40% since the price of oil began to crash in 2014. With a breakeven cost of $105/bbl, the dropping price of crude as well as dwindling ruble have sent ripples through the Russian economy.
Central Bank Policy
The impact of oil on currency depends on how central banks approach policy:
Floating exchange rate: The exchange rate is determined by supply and demand.
Fixed exchange rate: Countries with fixed exchange rates continuously arrange intervention to keep the rate the same.
Managed float: The central bank occasionally intervenes to “smooth out” the exchange rate.
Currency Correlations
The price of oil typically has the largest effect on countries with floating exchange rates such as Canada, Norway, or Mexico. Over the last 15 years, the loonie (-0.42), krone (-0.46), and peso (-0.31) have all had large negative correlations in exchange rates (paired with USD) against the price of oil.
Meanwhile, countries that have pegged their rate tend to feel the impact of oil price swings elsewhere in their economy. This is because such countries have to buy or sell currencies on the open market to maintain the currency peg. Another method that can be used is to enforce a particular exchange rate by making it illegal to trade currencies at other rates, but this can often create a black market.
As a result, countries with fixed-rate policies such as Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have little to no correlation in their exchange rates (paired with USD) against the price of oil.
Energy
Ranked: Electric Vehicle Sales by Model in 2023
Today, electric vehicle sales make up 18% of global vehicle sales. Here are the leading models by sales as of August 2023.

Ranked: Electric Vehicle Sales by Model in 2023
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are gaining momentum, reaching 18% of global vehicle sales in 2023.
As new competitors bring more affordable options and new performance features, the market continues to mature as customers increasingly look to electric options.
This graphic ranks the top-selling EVs worldwide as of August 2023, based on data from CleanTechnica.
The Best Selling EVs in 2023 (Through August)
Below, we show the world’s best selling fully electric vehicles from January to August 2023:
Model | Country | Vehicles Sold (Jan-Aug 2023) |
---|---|---|
Tesla Model Y | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 772,364 |
Tesla Model 3 | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 364,403 |
BYD Atto 3 / Yuan Plus | 🇨🇳 China | 265,688 |
BYD Dolphin | 🇨🇳 China | 222,825 |
GAC Aion S | 🇨🇳 China | 160,693 |
Wuling HongGuang Mini EV | 🇨🇳 China | 153,399 |
GAC Aion Y | 🇨🇳 China | 136,619 |
VW ID.4 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 120,154 |
BYD Seagull | 🇨🇳 China | 95,202 |
As we can see, Tesla‘s Model Y still holds a comfortable lead over the competition with 772,364 units sold. That’s more than double the sales of the #2 top selling vehicle, Tesla’s Model 3 (364,403)
But it’s hard to ignore the rising prevalence of Chinese EVs. The next five best selling EV vehicles are Chinese, including three from BYD. The automaker’s Atto 3 (or Yuan Plus, depending on market), is being sold in various countries including Germany, the UK, Japan, and India.
Meanwhile, Chinese automaker GAC Group also had two models of its Aion EV brand make the rankings, with the Aion S selling 160,693 units so far.
Regional market strength is also clear. For Volkswagen’s ID.4 model (120,154 units sold), Europe and China account for the majority of sales.
Given growing cost efficiencies and changing consumer behavior, global EV sales are projected to make up half of new car sales globally by 2035, according to forecasts from Goldman Sachs.
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