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China
Animated Chart: China’s Aging Population (1950-2100)
See why China is facing a demographic crisis in this animated chart.
Creator Program
China’s Aging Population Problem
The one-child policy defined China’s demographic transition for over three decades.
But to combat an aging population and declining birthrates, the government scrapped the policy for a new two-child policy in 2016. Despite this massive change, China still faces a growing demographic crisis.
The above animated population pyramid from James Eagle looks at the distribution of China’s population by age group since 1950, with projections up to the year 2100.
How the One-Child Policy Created a Gender Imbalance
Until 2016, the Chinese government strictly enforced the one-child policy since 1979 with hefty fines for any breach of rules. According to the government, the policy reduced 400 million births over the years.
However, it also led to sex-selective abortions due to a deep-rooted cultural preference for boys. As a result, China’s gender balance tilted, with a sex ratio of 111 males to 100 females in the population aging from 0 to 4 years old in 2020.
Often termed “the missing women of China”, this shortage of women is expected to worsen over time. According to the U.N.’s World Population Prospects, China is projected to have around 244 million fewer women than men in 2050.
Additionally, the country faces another impending consequence of the one-child policy—a rapidly aging population.
Why China’s Population is Aging
In 2020, China’s fertility rate—the number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime—stood at 1.3.
Generally, fertility rates drop as economies develop. However, China’s fertility rate is now lower than that of the U.S. (1.64 in 2020) and on par with countries like Japan and Italy, both of which are facing aging populations. Consequently, fewer newborns are entering the population, while many in the workforce approach retirement.
Most Chinese workers retire by age 60. Here’s how China’s retirement-age population is expected to shape up by the year 2100:
| Year | 60+ Population | % of Total Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 74,899,385 | 7.5% |
| 2000 | 129,460,648 | 10.0% |
| 2021 | 258,371,810 | 17.9% |
| 2050 | 485,489,066 | 34.6% |
| 2070 | 454,270,458 | 36.1% |
| 2100 | 402,780,972 | 37.8% |
In 2021, people aged 60 and over made up nearly one-fifth of the Chinese population. As the country’s population begins declining around 2030, over 30% of all Chinese people are expected to be in this age group.
China’s aging population threatens long-term economic growth as its workforce shrinks and low fertility rates result in fewer newborns that would later enter the working-age population. Fewer working people means lower overall consumption, a higher burden on elderly care, and slowing economic growth.
So, how will China respond to the oncoming crisis?
The Three-child Policy
According to the 2020 national census, Chinese mothers gave birth to 12 million children in 2020—the lowest number of births since 1949.
In response to these results, the government passed a new law allowing each couple to have up to three children. Despite the change, the high cost of raising a child may deter couples from having a third child.
It remains to be seen how the three-child policy helps combat China’s demographic crisis and which other policies the government chooses to deploy.
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