Markets
How Every Asset Class, Currency, and Sector Performed in 2019
Another year is in the books, and for investors 2019 was quite the turnaround story.
Despite an early backdrop of heightened volatility, escalating trade tensions, Brexit uncertainty, and calls for a recession, the year progressed in an unexpectedly pleasant fashion. The Fed used its limited arsenal to provide additional stimulus, and global markets soaked it up to extend the decade-long bull run.
By the end of 2019, every major asset class was in the black — and the S&P 500 surged to finish with its best annual return since 2013.
Markets Roundup for 2019
Let’s take a look at major asset classes in 2019, to see how they fared:
Note: all indices here (i.e. S&P 500, Russell 2000, etc.) are using total returns, with dividends re-invested.
The first thing you’ll notice when looking at the above data is that every major asset class had a positive return for the year. The only real difference lies in the magnitude of that positive return.
Even though stocks experienced some of the best gains on the year, the winning asset may be a surprising one: crude oil.
The oil price (WTI) started the year at about $46/bbl and it closed the year at over $61/bbl, good for a 34% gain. And with escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, energy prices could be shooting even higher in 2020.
Performance by S&P 500 Sector
Strangely enough, rising oil prices did not do enough to buoy energy stocks — the poorest performing S&P 500 sector.
Although oil was up on the year, natural gas actually fell in price by about 26% in 2019. This effectively cancels out the gains made by oil, putting energy producers at the bottom of the list:
Not surprisingly, technology stocks excelled in 2019.
Tech was led by a big bounceback from Apple, a big winner that gained more than 80% over the course of the year. Other strong sectors in the benchmark U.S. index included communication services and financials.
The Currency Game
Now let’s look how currencies moved in 2019.
Below movements are all against the U.S. dollar, with the exception of the U.S. dollar itself, which is measured against a basket of currencies (U.S. Dollar Index):
The biggest currency mover on the year was the Canadian dollar, which jumped over 5% partially thanks to rising oil prices. Meanwhile, the biggest decrease went to the euro, which fell over 2% against the U.S. dollar.
It’s also worthwhile to note that Bitcoin had a particularly strong rebound in 2019, rising over 90% against the U.S. dollar.
Winners and Losers
Finally, we’ve put together a more arbitrary list of winners and losers for the year, incorporating all of the above and more.
Both the Greek and Russian stock markets had banner years, each returning close to 50% in dollar terms. Faux meat brands also captured investors’ imaginations, with Beyond Meat leading the charge. Palladium was a standout commodity, gaining 59% on the year.
We’ve chosen energy stocks as a loser, since they were the poorest performing sector on the S&P 500. Meanwhile, Macy’s and Abiomed were two of the worst large cap stocks to own in 2019.
COVID-19
The Pandemic Economy: What are Shoppers Buying Online During COVID-19?
We visualize the ecommerce categories that have experienced the fastest growth, and the categories that are in decline during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Fastest Growing and Declining E-Commerce Categories
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a significant impact on every aspect of life, including how people shop for their necessities, and their not-so-necessities.
With online retail sales estimated to reach an eye-watering $6.5 trillion by 2023, the ecommerce sector was already booming. But since the outbreak, online shopping has been catapulted into complete overdrive. Even the largest retailers on the planet are struggling to keep up with the unprecedented consumer demand—but what exactly are people buying?
To answer this question, retail intelligence firm Stackline analyzed ecommerce sales across the U.S. and compiled a list of the fastest growing and declining ecommerce categories (March 2020 vs. March 2019) with surprising results.
The Frenzy of Buyer Behavior
As people come to terms with their new living situations, their buying behavior has adapted to suit their needs. While panic buying may have slowed in some countries, consumers continue to stock up on supplies, or “pandemic pantry products”.
Many consumers are also using their newfound time to focus on their health, with 85% of consumers taking up some kind of exercise while in social isolation, and 40% of them saying they intend to keep it up when restrictions are lifted.
These changing behaviors have resulted in a number of product categories experiencing a surge in demand — and although a lot of them are practical, others are wonderfully weird.
The Fastest Growing Categories
While the below list features several shelf-stable items, it seems as though consumers are taking matters into their own hands, with bread making machines sitting in second place and retailers selling out of their top models.
It’s clear from the list that consumers are considering positive changes to their lifestyle while in isolation, as fitness, smoking cessation, and respiratory categories are all experiencing growth.
Explore the 100 fastest growing product categories below:
| Rank | Category | % Change in March (2020 vs. 2019) |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Disposable Gloves | 670% |
| #2 | Bread Machines | 652% |
| #3 | Cough & Cold | 535% |
| #4 | Soups | 397% |
| #5 | Dried Grains & Rice | 386% |
| #6 | Packaged Foods | 377% |
| #7 | Fruit Cups | 326% |
| #8 | Weight Training | 307% |
| #9 | Milk & Cream | 279% |
| #10 | Dishwashing Supplies | 275% |
| #11 | Paper Towels | 264% |
| #12 | Hand Soap & Sanitizer | 262% |
| #13 | Pasta | 249% |
| #14 | Vegetables | 238% |
| #15 | Flour | 238% |
| #16 | Facial Tissues | 235% |
| #17 | Allergy Medicine | 232% |
| #18 | Women’s Health | 215% |
| #19 | Cereals | 214% |
| #20 | Power Generators | 210% |
| #21 | Laundry Supplies | 200% |
| #22 | Household Cleaners | 195% |
| #23 | Soap & Body Wash | 194% |
| #24 | Toilet Paper | 190% |
| #25 | Jerky & Dried Meats | 187% |
| #26 | Chips & Pretzels | 186% |
| #27 | Crackers | 184% |
| #28 | Health Monitors | 182% |
| #29 | Popcorn | 179% |
| #30 | Computer Monitors | 172% |
| #31 | Fitness Equipment | 170% |
| #32 | Single Vitamins | 166% |
| #33 | Nut & Seed Butters | 163% |
| #34 | Cat Food | 162% |
| #35 | Fruit Snacks | 162% |
| #36 | Baby Care Products | 162% |
| #37 | Refrigerators | 160% |
| #38 | Baking Mixes | 160% |
| #39 | Toilet Accessories | 160% |
| #40 | Dog Food | 159% |
| #41 | Diapers | 154% |
| #42 | Yoga Equipment | 154% |
| #43 | Bottled Beverages | 153% |
| #44 | Baby Meals | 153% |
| #45 | Cookies | 147% |
| #46 | Digestion & Nausea | 144% |
| #47 | Snack Foods | 141% |
| #48 | Herbal Supplements | 136% |
| #49 | Cooking Oils | 135% |
| #50 | Water | 130% |
| #51 | Incontinence & Tummy | 129% |
| #52 | Mutivitamin | 126% |
| #53 | Cat Litter | 125% |
| #54 | Training Pads and Trays | 125% |
| #55 | Juices | 125% |
| #56 | Smoking Cessation | 122% |
| #57 | Dried Fruit & Raisins | 120% |
| #58 | Salt & Pepper Seasoning | 118% |
| #59 | Craft Kits & Projects | 117% |
| #60 | Batteries | 116% |
| #61 | Trash Bags | 116% |
| #62 | Nuts & Seeds | 116% |
| #63 | Hair Coloring | 115% |
| #64 | Sauce & Gravy | 115% |
| #65 | Deli Foods | 114% |
| #66 | Syrups | 114% |
| #67 | Breads & Bakery | 114% |
| #68 | Minerals | 113% |
| #69 | Condiments | 111% |
| #70 | First Aid | 108% |
| #71 | Nail Care | 108% |
| #72 | Humidifiers | 105% |
| #73 | Art Paint | 104% |
| #74 | Office Chairs | 104% |
| #75 | Deodorant | 103% |
| #76 | Jams, Jellies & Spreads | 102% |
| #77 | Coffee | 101% |
| #78 | Spices & Seasoning | 100% |
| #79 | Skin Care | 99% |
| #80 | Pain Relievers | 99% |
| #81 | Cooking Vinegars | 98% |
| #82 | Air Purifiers | 97% |
| #83 | Granola & Nutrition Bars | 97% |
| #84 | Pudding & Gelatin | 97% |
| #85 | Toy Clay & Dough | 95% |
| #86 | Single Spices | 95% |
| #87 | Bird Food & Treats | 91% |
| #88 | Lab & Science Products | 90% |
| #89 | Eczema & Psoriasis | 90% |
| #90 | Ping Pong | 89% |
| #91 | Chocolate | 86% |
| #92 | Baking Ingredients | 84% |
| #93 | Energy Supplements | 84% |
| #94 | Respiratory | 82% |
| #95 | Office Desks | 82% |
| #96 | Potty Training Supplies | 82% |
| #97 | Herbs, Spices & Seasonings | 82% |
| #98 | Keyboard & Mice | 80% |
| #99 | Body Lotion | 79% |
| #100 | Safes | 69% |
Interestingly, toilet paper has seen more growth than baby care products, and cured meats have seen more growth than water. But while some categories are experiencing a drastic increase in demand, others are slumping in the pandemic economy.
The Fastest Declining Categories
An unprecedented wave of event and vacation cancellations is having a huge impact on the products people consume. For instance, luggage and suitcases, cameras, and men’s swimwear have all seen a dip in sales.
See the full list of 100 fastest declining categories below:
| Rank | Category | % Change in March (2020 vs. 2019) |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Luggage & Suitcases | -77% |
| #2 | Briefcases | -77% |
| #3 | Cameras | -64% |
| #4 | Men’s Swimwear | -64% |
| #5 | Bridal Clothing | -63% |
| #6 | Men's Formal Wear | -62% |
| #7 | Women’s Swimwear | -59% |
| #8 | Rash Guards | -59% |
| #9 | Boy’s Athletic Shoes | -59% |
| #10 | Gym Bags | -57% |
| #11 | Backpacks | -56% |
| #12 | Snorkelling Equipment | -56% |
| #13 | Girl’s Swimwear | -55% |
| #14 | Baseball Equipment | -55% |
| #15 | Event & Party Supplies | -55% |
| #16 | Motorcycle Protective Gear | -55% |
| #17 | Camera Bags & Cases | -54% |
| #18 | Women’s Suits & Dresses | -53% |
| #19 | Women’s Boots | -51% |
| #20 | Cargo Racks | -51% |
| #21 | Women’s Sandals | -50% |
| #22 | Drones | -50% |
| #23 | Boy's Active Clothing | -50% |
| #24 | Lunch Boxes | -50% |
| #25 | Store Fixtures & Displays | -50% |
| #26 | Automotive Mats | -50% |
| #27 | Men’s Outerwear | -49% |
| #28 | Watches & Accessories | -49% |
| #29 | Cargo Bed Covers | -48% |
| #30 | Track & Field Equipment | -48% |
| #31 | Ceiling Lighting | -47% |
| #32 | Camera Lenses | -47% |
| #33 | Girl’s Coats and Jackets | -47% |
| #34 | Women’s Hats & Caps | -47% |
| #35 | Women's Outerwear | -47% |
| #36 | Video Cameras | -46% |
| #37 | Wheels & Tires | -46% |
| #38 | Motorcycle Parts | -45% |
| #39 | Women’s Wallets | -45% |
| #40 | Shocks & Struts | -44% |
| #41 | Transmission & Parts | -44% |
| #42 | Girl’s Athletic Shoes | -44% |
| #43 | Women’s Shoes | -44% |
| #44 | Telescopes | -44% |
| #45 | Sunglasses & Eyeglasses | -43% |
| #46 | Men’s Tops | -41% |
| #47 | Video Projectors | -40% |
| #48 | Men’s Athletic Shoes | -40% |
| #49 | Marine Electronics | -40% |
| #50 | Hand Tools | -40% |
| #51 | Wine Racks | -40% |
| #52 | Men's Shoes | -40% |
| #53 | Clocks | -39% |
| #54 | Baby Girl’s Shoes | -39% |
| #55 | Bracelets | -39% |
| #56 | Men’s Boots | -39% |
| #57 | Tapestries | -39% |
| #58 | Camping Equipment | -39% |
| #59 | Men’s Bottoms | -38% |
| #60 | Cell Phones | -38% |
| #61 | Tool Storage & Organizers | -38% |
| #62 | Necklaces | -38% |
| #63 | Swimming Equipment | -37% |
| #64 | Men’s Hats & Caps | -37% |
| #65 | Girl’s Shoes | -37% |
| #66 | Industrial Tools | -36% |
| #67 | Juicers | -36% |
| #68 | Desktops | -35% |
| #69 | Classroom Furniture | -35% |
| #70 | Bar & Wine Tools | -35% |
| #71 | Glassware & Drinkware | -35% |
| #72 | Musical Instruments | -34% |
| #73 | Power Winches | -34% |
| #74 | Home Bar Furniture | -34% |
| #75 | Office Storage Supplies | -34% |
| #76 | Girl's Active Clothing | -34% |
| #77 | Women’s Tops | -34% |
| #78 | Braces, Splints & Supports | -34% |
| #79 | Car Anti-theft | -34% |
| #80 | Rings | -34% |
| #81 | Blankets & Quilts | -33% |
| #82 | Women's Athletic Shoes | -33% |
| #83 | Kitchen Sinks | -33% |
| #84 | Golf Clubs | -33% |
| #85 | Equestrian Equipment | -33% |
| #86 | GPS & Navigation | -32% |
| #87 | Recording Supplies | -32% |
| #88 | Home Audio | -32% |
| #89 | Boy's Accessories | -32% |
| #90 | Earrings | -32% |
| #91 | Dining Sets | -31% |
| #92 | Calculators | -31% |
| #93 | Boy's Shoes | -31% |
| #94 | Volleyball Equipment | -31% |
| #95 | Strollers | -31% |
| #96 | Coolers | -30% |
| #97 | Sanders & Grinders | -30% |
| #98 | Men's Activewear | -29% |
| #99 | Living Room Furniture | -29% |
| #100 | Climbing & Hiking Bags | -28% |
Regardless of which list a product falls under, it is clear that the pandemic has impacted retailers of every kind in both positive and negative ways.
The New Normal?
Officially the world’s largest retailer, Amazon has announced it can no longer keep up with consumer demand. As a result, it will be delaying the delivery of non-essential items, or in some cases not taking orders for non-essentials at all.
This presents a double-edged sword, as the new dynamic that is bringing some retailers unprecedented demand could also bring about an untimely end for others.
Meanwhile, the question remains: will this drastic change in consumer behavior stabilize once we flatten the curve, or is this our new normal?
Central Banks
The Anatomy of the $2 Trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill
A visual breakdown of the CARES Act, the $2 trillion package to provide COVID-19 economic relief. It’s the largest stimulus bill in modern history.
The Anatomy of the $2 Trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Bill
The unprecedented response to the COVID-19 pandemic has prioritized keeping people apart to slow the spread of the virus. While measures such as business closures and travel restrictions are effective at fighting a pandemic, they also have a dramatic impact on the economy.
To help right the ship, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act — also known as the CARES Act — was passed by U.S. lawmakers last week with little fanfare. The act became the largest economic stimulus bill in modern history, more than doubling the stimulus act passed in 2009 during the Financial Crisis.
Today’s Sankey diagram is a visual representation of where the $2 trillion will be spent. Broadly speaking, there are five components to the COVID-19 stimulus bill:
| Category | Total Amount | Share of the Package |
|---|---|---|
| Individuals / Families | $603.7 billion | 30% |
| Big Business | $500.0 billion | 25% |
| Small Business | $377.0 billion | 19% |
| State and Local Government | $340.0 billion | 17% |
| Public Services | $179.5 billion | 9% |
Although the COVID-19 stimulus bill is incredibly complex, here are some of the most important parts to be aware of.
Funds for Individuals
Amount: $603.7 billion – 30% of total CARES Act
In order to stimulate the sputtering economy quickly, the U.S. government will deploy “helicopter money” — direct cash payments to individuals and families.
The centerpiece of this plan is a $1,200 direct payment for those earning up to $75,000 per year. For higher earners, payment amounts will phase out, ending altogether at the $99,000 income level. Families will also receive $500 per child.
There are three other key things to know about this portion of the stimulus funds:
- There will be a temporary suspension for any student loan held by the federal government. This means no payments required and no interest accrued until the end of September, 2020.
- Borrowers with federally backed loans can request forbearance on mortgage payments for up to six months.
- There will be an expansion of unemployment benefits, including a four-month enhancement of benefits. This plan includes freelancers, workers in the gig economy, and furloughed employees.
Big Business
Amount: $500.0 billion – 25% of total CARES Act
This component of the package is aimed at stabilizing big businesses in hard-hit sectors.
The most obvious industry to receive support will be the airlines. About $58 billion has been earmarked for commercial and cargo airlines, as well as airline contractors. Perhaps in response to recent criticism of the industry, companies receiving stimulus money will be barred from engaging in stock buybacks for the term of the loan plus one year.
One interesting pathway highlighted by today’s Sankey diagram is the $17 billion allocated to “maintaining national security”. While this provision doesn’t mention any specific company by name, the primary recipient is believed to be Boeing.
The bill also indicates that an inspector general will oversee the recovery process, along with a special committee.
Small Business
Amount: $377.0 billion – 19% of total CARES Act
To ease the strain on businesses around the country, the Small Business Administration (SBA) will be given $350 billion to provide loans of up to $10 million to qualifying organizations. These funds can be used for mission critical activities, such as paying rent or keeping employees on the payroll during COVID-19 closures.
As well, the bill sets aside $10 billion in grants for small businesses that need help covering short-term operating costs.
State and Local Governments
Amount: $340.0 billion – 17% of total CARES Act
The biggest portion of funds going to local and state governments is the $274 billion allocated towards direct COVID-19 response. The rest of the funds in this component will go to schools and child care services.
Public and Health Services
Amount: $179.5 billion – 9% of total CARES Act
The biggest slice of this pie goes to healthcare providers, who will receive $100 billion in grants to help fight COVID-19. This was a major ask from groups representing the healthcare industry, as they look to make up the lost revenue caused by focusing on the outbreak — as opposed to performing elective surgeries and other procedures. There will also be a 20% increase in Medicare payments for treating patients with the virus.
Money is also set aside for initiatives such as increasing the availability of ventilators and masks for the Strategic National Stockpile, as well as providing additional funding for the Center for Disease Control and expanding the reach of virtual doctors.
Finally, beyond the healthcare-related funding, the CARES Act also addresses food security programs and a long list of educational and arts initiatives.
Hat tip to Reddit user SevenandForty for inspiring this graphic.
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