Everything You Need to Know About Recessions
Just like in life, markets go through peaks and valleys. The good news for investors is that often the peaks ascend to far greater heights than the depths of the valleys.
Today’s post helps to put recessions into perspective. It draws information from Capital Group to break down the frequency of economic expansions and recessions in modern U.S. history, while also showing their typical impact.
What is a Recession?
Not all recessions are the same. Some can last long while others are short. Some create lasting effects, while others are quickly forgotten. Some cripple entire economies, while others are much more targeted, impacting specific sectors within the economy.
Recession is when your neighbor loses their job. Depression is when you lose yours.
– Harry Truman
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession can be described as a significant decline in economic activity over an extended period of time, typically several months.
In the average recession, gross domestic product (GDP) is not the only thing shrinking—incomes, employment, industrial production, and retail sales tend to shrink as well. Economists generally consider two consecutive quarters of declining GDP as a recession.
The general economic model of a recession is that when unemployment rises, consumers are more likely to save than spend. This places pressure on businesses that rely on consumers’ income. As a result, company earnings and stock prices decline, which can fuel a negative cycle of economic decline and negative expectations of returns.
During economic recoveries and expansions, the opposite occurs. Rising employment encourages consumer spending, which bolsters corporate profits and stock market returns.
How Long Do Recessions Last?
Recessions generally do not last very long. According to Capital Group’s analysis of 10 cycles since 1950, the average length of a recession is 11 months, although they have ranged from eight to 18 months over the period of analysis.
Jobs losses and business closures are dramatic in the short term, though equity investments in the stock market have generally fared better. Throughout the history of economics, recessions have been relatively small blips.
|Average Expansion||Average Recession|
|S&P 500 Returns||117%||3%|
|Net Jobs Added||12M||-1.9M|
Over the last 65 years, the U.S. has been in an official recession for less than 15% of all months. In addition, the overall economic impact of most recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by 24%, whereas the average recession decreased GDP by less than 2%.
In fact, equity returns can be positive throughout a contraction, since some of the strongest stock rallies have occurred in the later stages of a recession.
Buying the Dip: Recession Indicators
Whether you are an investor or not, it would be wise to pay attention to potential recessions and prepare accordingly.
There are several indicators that people can watch to anticipate a potential recession, which might give them an edge in preparing their portfolios:
|Recession Indicator||Why is it Important?||Average Length Until Recession|
|Inverted Yield Curve||Often a sign the U.S. Fed has hiked short-term rates too high or investors are seeking long-term bonds over riskier assets.||15.7 months|
|Corporate Profits||When profits decline, businesses cut investment, employment, and wages.||26.2 months|
|Unemployment||When unemployment rises, consumers cut back on spending.||6.1 months|
|Housing Starts||When the economic outlook is poor, home builders often cut back on housing projects.||5.3 months|
|Leading Economic Index|
Aggregation of multiple leading economic indicators. gives a broader look at the U.S. economy.
This is not a magic rubric for anticipating every economic downturn, but it helps individuals see the weather patterns on the horizon. Whether and where the storm hits is another question.
This Simple Chart Reveals the Distribution Of Global Wealth
Global wealth at the end of 2020 was about $418 trillion. Here’s a breakdown of the global wealth distribution among the adult population.
The Global Wealth Distribution in One Chart
The pandemic resulted in global wealth taking a significant dip in the first part of 2020. By the end of March, global household wealth had already declined by around 4.4%.
Interestingly, after much monetary and fiscal stimulus from governments around the world, global household wealth was more than able to recover, finishing up the year at $418.3 trillion, a 7.4% gain from the previous year.
Using data from Credit Suisse, this graphic looks at how global wealth is distributed among the adult population.
How is Global Wealth Distributed?
While individuals worth more than $1 million constitute just 1.1% of the world’s population, they hold 45.8% of global wealth.
|Wealth Range||Wealth||Global Share (%)||Adult Population|
|Over $1M||$191.6 trillion||45.8%||Held by 1.1%|
|$100k-$1M||$163.9 trillion||39.1%||Held by 11.1%|
|$10k-$100k||$57.3 trillion||13.7%||Held by 32.8%|
|Less than $10k||$5.5 trillion||1.3%||Held by 55.0%|
|Total||$418.3 trillion||100.0%||Held by 100.0%|
On the other end of the spectrum, 55% of the population owns only 1.3% of global wealth.
And between these two extreme wealth distribution cases, the rest of the world’s population has a combined 52.8% of the wealth.
Global Wealth Distribution by Region
While wealth inequality is especially evident within the wealth ranges mentioned above, these differences can also be seen on a more regional basis between countries.
In 2020, total wealth rose by $12.4 trillion in North America and $9.2 trillion in Europe. These two regions accounted for the bulk of the wealth gains, with China adding another $4.2 trillion and the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and India) another $4.7 trillion.
Here is a breakdown of global wealth distribution by region:
|Change in Total Wealth |
|Change %||Wealth Per Adult |
India and Latin America both recorded losses in 2020.
Total wealth fell in India by $594 billion, or 4.4%. Meanwhile, Latin America appears to have been the worst-performing region, with total wealth dropping by 11.4% or $1.2 trillion.
Post-COVID Global Outlook 2020-2025
Despite the burden of COVID-19 on the global economy, the world can expect robust GDP growth in the coming years, especially in 2021. The latest estimates by the International Monetary Fund in April 2021 suggest that global GDP in 2021 will total $100.1 trillion in nominal terms, up by 4.1% compared to last year.
The link in normal times between GDP growth and household wealth growth, combined with the expected rapid return of economic activity to its pre-pandemic levels, suggests that global wealth could grow again at a fast pace. According to Credit Suisse estimates, global wealth may rise by 39% over the next five years.
Low and middle-income countries will also play an essential role in the coming year. They are responsible for 42% of the growth, even though they account for just 33% of current wealth.
Mapping The Biggest Companies By Market Cap in 60 Countries
Tech, finance or energy giant? We mapped the biggest companies by market cap and industry.
The Biggest Companies By Market Cap in 60 Countries
Tech giants are increasingly making up more of the Fortune 500, but the world’s biggest companies by market cap aren’t so cut and dry.
Despite accounting for the largest market caps worldwide—with trillion-dollar companies like Apple and contenders including Tencent and Samsung—tech wealth is largely concentrated in just a handful of countries.
So what are the biggest companies in each country? We mapped the largest company by market cap across 60 countries in August 2021 using market data from CompaniesMarketCap, TradingView, and MarketScreener.
What are the Largest Companies in the World?
The world has 60+ stock exchanges, and each one has a top company. We looked at the largest local company, since many of the world’s largest firms trade on multiple exchanges, and converted market cap to USD.
|Country||Company||Industry||Market Cap (August 2021)|
|Saudi Arabia||Saudi Aramco||Energy||$1.9T|
|Belgium||Anheuser-Busch Inbev||Consumer Staples||$122.7B|
|Indonesia||Bank Cental Asia||Financials||$54.8B|
|Philippines||SM Investments||Consumer Cyclical||$22.9B|
|Kuwait||Kuwait Finance House||Financials||$21.9B|
|Czech Republic||ÄŒEZ Group||Energy||$15.8B|
|Poland||PKO Bank Polski||Financials||$12.6B|
|Bahrain||Ahli United Bank||Financials||$8.6B|
|Egypt||Commercial International Bank||Financials||$5.9B|
Many are former monopolies or massive conglomerates that have grown in the public space, such as South Africa’s Naspers and India’s Reliance Industries.
Others are local subsidiaries of foreign corporations, including Mexico’s Walmex, Chile’s Enel and Turkey’s QNB Finansbank.
But even more noticeable is the economic discrepancy. Apple and Saudi Aramco are worth trillions of dollars, while the smallest companies we tracked—including Panama’s Copa Group and Oman’s Bank Muscat—are worth less than $5 billion.
Finance and Tech Dominate The Biggest Companies By Market Cap
Across the board, the largest companies were able to accumulate wealth and value.
Some are newer to the top thanks to recent success. Canada’s Shopify has become one of the world’s largest e-commerce providers, and the UK’s AstraZeneca developed one of the world’s COVID-19 vaccines.
But the reality is most companies here are old guards that grew on existing resources, or in the case of banks, accumulated wealth.
|Industry||Biggest Companies by Country|
Banks were the most commonly found at the top of each country’s stock market. Closely behind were oil and gas giants, mining companies, and former state-owned corporations that drove most of a country’s wealth generation.
But as more economies develop and catch up to Western economies (where tech is dominant), newer innovative companies will likely put up a fight for each country’s top company crown.
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